NYT's Nate Silver tournament take

[Toga]

Nate Silver - NYT's resident statistician and sports geek gives his take. Haven't read yet in detail but looks like he has low statistical regard for the West Region, Miami and Georgetown. SU with a 2% chance of taking the title. Lots of love for Indiana.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...y-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite/?hp

 

[TheRoyalIveyFund]

Nate Silver - NYT's resident statistician and sports geek gives his take. Haven't read yet in detail but looks like he has low statistical regard for the West Region, Miami and Georgetown. SU with a 2% chance of taking the title. Lots of love for Indiana.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...y-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite/?hp

Thanks for the post. If you're a numbers nerd, like me, this is worth a read...

 

[Millhouse]

his imputed per game SU odds.

87% winning first game

if we win first game, 55% chance of winning second game
if we win first two games, 36% chance of winning Sweet 16 game
if we win first 3 games, 66% chance of winning Regional Final game
if we win first 4 games, 49% chance of winning national semi
if we win first 5 games, 35% of winning national championship

not saying they have 35% chance of winning it all. this says that they have a 35% of winning it all if they happen to make the final game.

multiply all of those and you get a 2% chance.

Kinda strange if you ask me - i know there's parity but those individual game odds look weird

 

[baggerbob]

He makes my final 4 picks look good Louisville, Ohio St, Florida and they who won't be named.

 

[pearl31]

So we're basically like Romney's chances in Ohio, huh?