obligatory punt post

[Millhouse]

i wish the 4th down calculator at http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/4thdncalc1.php used url parameters so I could just link to the situation.

if you have better than a 30% chance of gaining one yard, you're better off going for it there.

if you want to say "yeah, but that's with our line and 8th string qb", you should consider that it's at least offset by our terrible pass defense

 

[upperdeck]

do you think we had a 30% chance of success?

 

[IthacaBarrel]

do you think we had a 30% chance of success?

Watching that game I thought we had a 3% chance, call me crazy. With Dungey I say 50%

Everybody is a stats genius these days, fantasy buffoonery. I would have bet anybody $1,000 if Syracuse went for that 4th down that they were not going to get it.

 

[upperdeck]

its a random stat tool not actually based on stats for the teams trying to duplicate the feat.

 

[Millhouse]

Watching that game I thought we had a 3% chance, call me crazy. With Dungey I say 50%

Everybody is a stats genius these days, fantasy buffoonery. I would have bet anybody $1,000 if Syracuse went for that 4th down that they were not going to get it.

they ran the ball fine in overtime when punting was out of the question

i tried to address this in the first post by pointing out how bad the pass defense is. i don't know why anyone would bother to run against SU.

 

[Millhouse]

do you think we had a 30% chance of success?

yes. but a break even of 30% is probably high considering how bad our secondary is. i would say that if you have a 20% chance, go for it there. that's not hindsight, we are all mostly in agreement all year long about the secondary being pitiful

 

[upperdeck]

i agree that going for it was probably the call just based on chance to end the game.

 

[Millhouse]

i agree that going for it was probably the call just based on chance to end the game.

i'm not going beserk over this one, i just think it was a lousy decision. there have been a million others that are way worse. at least this time syracuse had the lead and didn't need the ball to score

 

[Alsacs]

This is what I don't like about 4th and 1 play calls. Instead of bringing in extra TEs and OL I would bring in 4 WRs and 1 RB and spread the team out. It would reduce the number of bodies in the box and force the D to cover the WRs and if you only have 7 in the box you should be able to get 1 yard easier than having all those DL men pushing in the box and making it hard.

I wish more coaches practiced this and it is pure meathead for all these coaches and I am not talking about our coach putting in big bodies and making it harder to get that yard.

 

[Millhouse]

last year, there 6 teams in the country with less than 30% 4th down conversion percentage

i doubt those teams only went for it on 4th and 1 either (i'm sure there were some desperation attempts in there).

there were only 8 teams below 30% on third down conversions last year (again that includes a lot more than 3rd and 1)

do you guys think CMU fans were upset that we punted instead of going for it?

 

[JoeSU]

Maybe we should have tried the toss-sweep to the RB.

 

[Briancuse]

last year, there 6 teams in the country with less than 30% 4th down conversion percentage

i doubt those teams only went for it on 4th and 1 either (i'm sure there were some desperation attempts in there).

there were only 8 teams below 30% on third down conversions last year (again that includes a lot more than 3rd and 1)

do you guys think CMU fans were upset that we punted instead of going for it?

If I was a Cmu fan, I would be doing cartwheels that we decided to punt.