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Message: [QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 1222438, member: 78"] That's true but those teams have more red zone attempts I took 1st quarter rushes in 2014 (I don't want to look at the whole game because great teams run out the clock with big leads) and correlated it to red zone appearances and red zone td %. The more you want to run off the bat, the less red zone chances you get but once you're there you convert better. The negative correlation between 1q rush attempts and red zone appearances is stronger than the correlation between 1q rushes and red zone td % people get too hung up on a couple possessions that go awry. yards are strongly correlated with points. if you start worrying too much about RZ TD% you might end up with some offense that's really good at pounding it in from the 1 but can't get the ball to the 1. smarter 4th downs wouldn't have closed the whole gap in 2012 but it would've closed part of it [/QUOTE]