Oliver Luck to Texas?

[NKR1978]

According to the Internet, seems Oliver Luck might be the next AD at Texas. This is the guy who humiliated a decent man in Bill Stewart and hired the train wreck in Holgorsen,who only won with Stewart's recruits. But aside from that, if Luck goes to Texas, what kind of meltdown will the WVU fans have when Texas decides it has had enough of the Big 12 and moves to the B1G, Pac or ACC?

And one thing I love about this board is that I think I know one person in real life who would understand this proposition.

 

[Chip]

According to the Internet, seems Oliver Luck might be the next AD at Texas. This is the guy who humiliated a decent man in Bill Stewart and hired the train wreck in Holgorsen,who only won with Stewart's recruits. But aside from that, if Luck goes to Texas, what kind of meltdown will the WVU fans have when Texas decides it has had enough of the Big 12 and moves to the B1G, Pac or ACC?

And one thing I love about this board is that I think I know one person in real life who would understand this proposition.

Probably a similar meltdown to when Michigan used them as a training program for all their revenue sport head coaches.

Always a bridesmaid... and an ugly one at that.

 

[texascpa]

Has the Dude come out from hibernation?

 

[NKR1978]

Probably a similar meltdown to when Michigan used them as a training program for all their revenue sport head coaches.

Always a bridesmaid... and an ugly one at that.

True story: a friend went to a wedding in West Virginia where the entree choices were chicken, hot dog and hamburger (choose one).

 

[SU2NASA]

According to the Internet, seems Oliver Luck might be the next AD at Texas. This is the guy who humiliated a decent man in Bill Stewart and hired the train wreck in Holgorsen,who only won with Stewart's recruits. But aside from that, if Luck goes to Texas, what kind of meltdown will the WVU fans have when Texas decides it has had enough of the Big 12 and moves to the B1G, Pac or ACC?

And one thing I love about this board is that I think I know one person in real life who would understand this proposition.

Just wait til the announcement is made that Oklahoma is going to the Big Ten.

I'm hearing its any day now. Unless things change of course.

 

[Alsacs]

While I don't like WVU because of their fanbase's crusade against the ACC Oliver Luck to Texas doesn't hurt WVU as much as possible think. Like Donna Shalala at Miami wanting Syracuse to be part of the ACC expansion and having a soft spot for Syracuse. Luck isn't going to make moves that hurt WVU IMO. While he would be the Texas AD I think he would have a soft spot for WVU and wouldn't move Texas into the Pac-12, B1G, or Indy/ACC without WVU being taken care of. If Luck becomes the Texas AD I would bet the Big XII expands to 12 and picking from either BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and stabilizing realignment for the foreseeable future.

 

[oldpinepoint]

Believe it or not "the Dude" called this a few weeks ago. Probably him they are citing as sources! Ha!


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[rrlbees]

Believe it or not "the Dude" called this a few weeks ago. Probably him they are citing as sources! Ha!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Don't know if it was the Dude but one of those WV guys called this over a year ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Orangello]

He has a law degree from UT and was a classmate of the guy heading up the AD search committee

 

[KaiserUEO]

While I don't like WVU because of their fanbase's crusade against the ACC Oliver Luck to Texas doesn't hurt WVU as much as possible think. Like Donna Shalala at Miami wanting Syracuse to be part of the ACC expansion and having a soft spot for Syracuse. Luck isn't going to make moves that hurt WVU IMO. While he would be the Texas AD I think he would have a soft spot for WVU and wouldn't move Texas into the Pac-12, B1G, or Indy/ACC without WVU being taken care of. If Luck becomes the Texas AD I would bet the Big XII expands to 12 and picking from either BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and stabilizing realignment for the foreseeable future.

then hes not the right guy for the job.

all he should care about, all any AD should care about...its whats BEST for the school they are at NOW.

what happens to others is unavoidable and necessary collateral damage if screwing them over is best for the paycheck school.

if finding others a soft landing spot is best for the paycheck school then do so, otherwise...tough shlit.

 

[Alsacs]

then hes not the right guy for the job.

all he should care about, all any AD should care about...its whats BEST for the school they are at NOW.

what happens to others is unavoidable and necessary collateral damage if screwing them over is best for the paycheck school.

if finding others a soft landing spot is best for the paycheck school then do so, otherwise...tough shlit.

I am not saying Luck wouldn't follow his fiduciary duty of being the Texas AD first. I am just saying Luck as Texas AD would mean WVU would have a strong ally in a powerful position. I don't think Luck would hurt Texas, but he would be careful of the collateral damage of what would happen to WVU.

 

[Lou_C]

then hes not the right guy for the job.

all he should care about, all any AD should care about...its whats BEST for the school they are at NOW.

what happens to others is unavoidable and necessary collateral damage if screwing them over is best for the paycheck school.

if finding others a soft landing spot is best for the paycheck school then do so, otherwise...tough shlit.

This is the number one reason I would NOT hire him if I were Texas, even though I find him a fairly impressive guy. It's why despite all the chatter I'll be skeptical until the press conference. I just don't see how you hire a guy, knowing that in the future it may be required to blow up the Big 12, and wonder about his allegiances. Not that he would directly undermine Texas in favor of WVU or anything...but you just wonder if there is Scenario 1 that is an A outcome for Texas and a D- outcome for WVU, and another Scenario 2 that is a B outcome for Texas and a B outcome for WVU, which one is he working toward?

I don't hold it against him, I just don't think I'd feel comfortable with that if I'm Texas.

On the other hand, if he came into the Texas interview, and swore on a bible that he'd burn WVU to the ground if it is what is best for Texas, I don't think that would particularly endear him to me either.

I think hiring Luck is a sign that Texas has absolutely no plans of being put in a position for the foreseeable future in which Texas and WVU interests are not aligned, meaning any chatter of changes prior to the Big 12 GOR being up is nothing.

 

[Alsacs]

This is the number one reason I would NOT hire him if I were Texas, even though I find him a fairly impressive guy. It's why despite all the chatter I'll be skeptical until the press conference. I just don't see how you hire a guy, knowing that in the future it may be required to blow up the Big 12, and wonder about his allegiances. Not that he would directly undermine Texas in favor of WVU or anything...but you just wonder if there is Scenario 1 that is an A outcome for Texas and a D- outcome for WVU, and another Scenario 2 that is a B outcome for Texas and a B outcome for WVU, which one is he working toward?

I don't hold it against him, I just don't think I'd feel comfortable with that if I'm Texas.

On the other hand, if he came into the Texas interview, and swore on a bible that he'd burn WVU to the ground if it is what is best for Texas, I don't think that would particularly endear him to me either.

I think hiring Luck is a sign that Texas has absolutely no plans of being put in a position for the foreseeable future in which Texas and WVU interests are not aligned, meaning any chatter of changes prior to the Big 12 GOR being up is nothing.

Lou, Texas continuing the status quo is good for everyone except the B1G. The B1G football is starting to finally get the criticism that the ACC has gotten in the past. Miami, Clemson are giving the computers enough good numbers so that a school like your Seminoles won't be harmed by the numbers and can get away with beating teams and making the NC game. I honestly feel that is fair based on the eye test that FSU would finish 3rd in the BCS behind Alabama and Oregon and not because the ACC sucks or is harming FSU or whomever would be in that position, but those other teams are just a little better. Even though I hope LSU beats Albama and Stanford beats Oregon.

If Luck becomes the Texas AD I think the Big XII adds UCF and Cincinnati to open new markets/recruiting ground and not really kill their on the field product, and play their title game at JerryWorld and make basically the same money on per team basis. This would essentially lockup Texas, Oklahoma from being disadvantaged for not playing in a conference title game.
Division 1
Kansas State
Kansas
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Iowa State

Division 2
TCU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Baylor
Texas

 

[Chip]

Don't know if it was the Dude but one of those WV guys called this over a year ago.


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I think a lot of people have been calling this one as a logical successor to Dodds. Wasn't if, it was when.

WVU is the stepping stone school that drives their fans crazy.

 

[Chip]

then hes not the right guy for the job.

all he should care about, all any AD should care about...its whats BEST for the school they are at NOW.

what happens to others is unavoidable and necessary collateral damage if screwing them over is best for the paycheck school.

if finding others a soft landing spot is best for the paycheck school then do so, otherwise...tough shlit.

I think when he gets the Texas job, WVU becomes nothing more than a job listed on his resume. That's it.

 

[dasher]

I think when he gets the Texas job, WVU becomes nothing more than a job listed on his resume. That's it.

Luck will not worry one bit about WVU when he goes to Texas.

 

[Btstimpy]

Lou, Texas continuing the status quo is good for everyone except the B1G. The B1G football is starting to finally get the criticism that the ACC has gotten in the past. Miami, Clemson are giving the computers enough good numbers so that a school like your Seminoles won't be harmed by the numbers and can get away with beating teams and making the NC game. I honestly feel that is fair based on the eye test that FSU would finish 3rd in the BCS behind Alabama and Oregon and not because the ACC sucks or is harming FSU or whomever would be in that position, but those other teams are just a little better. Even though I hope LSU beats Albama and Stanford beats Oregon.

If Luck becomes the Texas AD I think the Big XII adds UCF and Cincinnati to open new markets/recruiting ground and not really kill their on the field product, and play their title game at JerryWorld and make basically the same money on per team basis. This would essentially lockup Texas, Oklahoma from being disadvantaged for not playing in a conference title game.
Division 1
Kansas State
Kansas
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Iowa State

Division 2
TCU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Baylor
Texas

According to "The Dude" the Big XII Expansion Committee explored this with FOX and ESPN, and they determined that neither television partner would increase their television contract enough to even make this revenue neutral per school. Apparently each Big XII school would earn something like $4-5 million per year less by doing this even with a Championship Game. The Big XII contract is driven by ratings and not cable subscribers. Apparently, UCF and Cincinnati don't drive ratings. So apparently this idea has been nixed.

Will Oliver Luck keep working on it? Who knows?

 

[KaiserUEO]

Lou, Texas continuing the status quo is good for everyone except the B1G. The B1G football is starting to finally get the criticism that the ACC has gotten in the past. Miami, Clemson are giving the computers enough good numbers so that a school like your Seminoles won't be harmed by the numbers and can get away with beating teams and making the NC game. I honestly feel that is fair based on the eye test that FSU would finish 3rd in the BCS behind Alabama and Oregon and not because the ACC sucks or is harming FSU or whomever would be in that position, but those other teams are just a little better. Even though I hope LSU beats Albama and Stanford beats Oregon.

If Luck becomes the Texas AD I think the Big XII adds UCF and Cincinnati to open new markets/recruiting ground and not really kill their on the field product, and play their title game at JerryWorld and make basically the same money on per team basis. This would essentially lockup Texas, Oklahoma from being disadvantaged for not playing in a conference title game.
Division 1
Kansas State
Kansas
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Iowa State

Division 2
TCU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Baylor
Texas

youre going to need to throw okie and okie st into the other division.

probably send cfu and wow, maybe kansas? as replacements. both texas and kansas can still keep their rivalry games intact with an ACC set up in this scenario.

 

[Alsacs]

According to "The Dude" the Big XII Expansion Committee explored this with FOX and ESPN, and they determined that neither television partner would increase their television contract enough to even make this revenue neutral per school. Apparently each Big XII school would earn something like $4-5 million per year less by doing this even with a Championship Game. The Big XII contract is driven by ratings and not cable subscribers. Apparently, UCF and Cincinnati don't drive ratings. So apparently this idea has been nixed.

Will Oliver Luck keep working on it? Who knows?

Honestly, I could create a persona and write more believable stuff than the "Dude." The guy has no sources and completely make stuff up. Sometimes its plausable from looking at things logically or sometimes its pure fantasy to make himself relevant. The "Dude" is Mike Gravel or Alan Keyes type of politican each of them are crazy politicians who think they are relevant when both are rightfully seen as jokes and not taken seriously.
I am sure the Big XII contract has language about re-structuring their TV contract with expansion and new members. Also, practically speaking ESPN/FOX are already overpaying the Big XII right now and if they added more teams and more content and added years to their existing contract I am sure they could get the number close enough that it would work. The "Dude" is so full of crap its a joke.

 

[Lou_C]

Lou, Texas continuing the status quo is good for everyone except the B1G. The B1G football is starting to finally get the criticism that the ACC has gotten in the past. Miami, Clemson are giving the computers enough good numbers so that a school like your Seminoles won't be harmed by the numbers and can get away with beating teams and making the NC game. I honestly feel that is fair based on the eye test that FSU would finish 3rd in the BCS behind Alabama and Oregon and not because the ACC sucks or is harming FSU or whomever would be in that position, but those other teams are just a little better. Even though I hope LSU beats Albama and Stanford beats Oregon.

If Luck becomes the Texas AD I think the Big XII adds UCF and Cincinnati to open new markets/recruiting ground and not really kill their on the field product, and play their title game at JerryWorld and make basically the same money on per team basis. This would essentially lockup Texas, Oklahoma from being disadvantaged for not playing in a conference title game.
Division 1
Kansas State
Kansas
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Iowa State

Division 2
TCU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Baylor
Texas

Oh, I agree. Aside from my pipe dream of the ACC bringing in Texas, Baylor, OU and OSU, it is absolutely in the best interest of both the Big 12 and the ACC to have the other be stable. That's what the Big 12 and especially WVU trolls don't want to recognize. Many of them still wish destruction on the ACC and it's foolish. Once their pipe dream of adding FSU, Clemson, Miami and GT or whatever was gone, it was absolutely imperative to the Big 12 that the ACC survived. Thus the fact the Big 12 helped the ACC with the GOR.

The bottom line is this...neither the Big 12 schools nor ACC schools have interest in the other conference now that the revenue is pretty much the same between the two (although despite WVU fans, I bet the decision makers there would be love to be in the ACC if they were invited and weren't bound by the GOR). Obviously no school in the B1G, PAC or SEC is interested in the Big 12 or ACC.

The bottom line is that the Big 12 and ACC are not the power players in realignment. They will be behind the SEC and B1G, and possibly soon the PAC revenue-wise in the next few years. However, if realignment broke wide open, the B1G and SEC and PAC will get their picks first.

Let's say the Big 12 and ACC end up about $10M behind in TV revenue as things stand now. However, if the ACC broke wide open, by the time the B1G added UNC, UVA, Duke, GT, and the SEC added NCSU and VT, it wouldn't matter a damn if the Big 12 got FSU and Clemson as leftovers. The B1G and SEC would end up way further ahead of them than they are today.

Realistically, the same for the ACC. We don't want the B12 to fold. There is no mythical "battle" with the Big 12 for being the fourth conference. If the Big 12 breaks up, the ACC isn't getting anything out of that which will be worth having. Texas and OU and Kansas and Oklahoma State will end up in some combination to the B1G, SEC and/or PAC. That might leave the ACC as the fourth conference, but we'll be way, way further back than we are today even if we are the fifth conference today (which is not necessarily the case).

It is absolutely in the best interest of the Big 12 and ACC to be the fifth conference and trail by yards, than it is to be the fourth conference and trail by miles.

The best and only play for the ACC here is:

1) Realignment status quo for at least a decade
2) Hope that 10+ years from now that the ACC can be as attractive an option as the SEC, PAC or B1G for Texas and friends, and be willing and able to offer that group something the other conferences can't

If you believe that the Big 12's days are numbered, and I don't necessarily believe they are, time is only on our side. If the Big 12 blows up tomorrow, the ACC get's nothing out of it. Maybe, MAYBE if it blows up in 10 or 15 years, we'll be in position to be the beneficiary. A lot of work to be done by the ACC and frankly ESPN if that is to become a reality.

That said, I disagree strongly the Big 12 will add two like you say. It is in nobody in that conference's interest, other than maybe WVU's, to give up annual games vs. Texas and OU and replace them with Cincinnati and UCF. In your scenario above, the Kansas schools and ISU are absolutely signing their own death certificates. I don't think there will ever be support for anyone to take Texas/OU off their schedules, other than WVU maybe. It would ONLY work if they were being replaced with the likes of ND or FSU. Otherwise, it just won't fly I don't think.

 

[Alsacs]

Oh, I agree. Aside from my pipe dream of the ACC bringing in Texas, Baylor, OU and OSU, it is absolutely in the best interest of both the Big 12 and the ACC to have the other be stable. That's what the Big 12 and especially WVU trolls don't want to recognize. Many of them still wish destruction on the ACC and it's foolish. Once their pipe dream of adding FSU, Clemson, Miami and GT or whatever was gone, it was absolutely imperative to the Big 12 that the ACC survived. Thus the fact the Big 12 helped the ACC with the GOR.

The bottom line is this...neither the Big 12 schools nor ACC schools have interest in the other conference now that the revenue is pretty much the same between the two (although despite WVU fans, I bet the decision makers there would be love to be in the ACC if they were invited and weren't bound by the GOR). Obviously no school in the B1G, PAC or SEC is interested in the Big 12 or ACC.

The bottom line is that the Big 12 and ACC are not the power players in realignment. They will be behind the SEC and B1G, and possibly soon the PAC revenue-wise in the next few years. However, if realignment broke wide open, the B1G and SEC and PAC will get their picks first.

Let's say the Big 12 and ACC end up about $10M behind in TV revenue as things stand now. However, if the ACC broke wide open, by the time the B1G added UNC, UVA, Duke, GT, and the SEC added NCSU and VT, it wouldn't matter a damn if the Big 12 got FSU and Clemson as leftovers. The B1G and SEC would end up way further ahead of them than they are today.

Realistically, the same for the ACC. We don't want the B12 to fold. There is no mythical "battle" with the Big 12 for being the fourth conference. If the Big 12 breaks up, the ACC isn't getting anything out of that which will be worth having. Texas and OU and Kansas and Oklahoma State will end up in some combination to the B1G, SEC and/or PAC. That might leave the ACC as the fourth conference, but we'll be way, way further back than we are today even if we are the fifth conference today (which is not necessarily the case).

It is absolutely in the best interest of the Big 12 and ACC to be the fifth conference and trail by yards, than it is to be the fourth conference and trail by miles.

The best and only play for the ACC here is:

1) Realignment status quo for at least a decade
2) Hope that 10+ years from now that the ACC can be as attractive an option as the SEC, PAC or B1G for Texas and friends, and be willing and able to offer that group something the other conferences can't

If you believe that the Big 12's days are numbered, and I don't necessarily believe they are, time is only on our side. If the Big 12 blows up tomorrow, the ACC get's nothing out of it. Maybe, MAYBE if it blows up in 10 or 15 years, we'll be in position to be the beneficiary. A lot of work to be done by the ACC and frankly ESPN if that is to become a reality.

That said, I disagree strongly the Big 12 will add two like you say. It is in nobody in that conference's interest, other than maybe WVU's, to give up annual games vs. Texas and OU and replace them with Cincinnati and UCF. In your scenario above, the Kansas schools and ISU are absolutely signing their own death certificates. I don't think there will ever be support for anyone to take Texas/OU off their schedules, other than WVU maybe. It would ONLY work if they were being replaced with the likes of ND or FSU. Otherwise, it just won't fly I don't think.

I agree with a lot of this. The B1G is the leader of wanting destability and more expansion IMO. They want TV sets for $$$ cable boxes plain and simple for the BTN. The SEC is fine with 14, but if two of UNC/Duke/NC State/UVA/VPI fell into their laps they would probably go to 16. Pac-12 has no options right now unless the Big XII blew up. Colorado State/BYU aren't getting into that conference and unless Texas wanted into the Pac-12 I don't see them expanding. Oklahoma in 2011 was denied membership into the Pac-12 along with Okie State. The Pac-12 wanted UT, A&M, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech for a Pac-16 but when Texas A&M and Texas said no then Oklahoma on its own applied and was denied membership. The Pac-12 is not expanding without Texas even though I would swooped up Oklahoma and Oklahoma State for a Pac-14 if I was Larry Scott and I am sure he did but Stanford allegedly didn't like Oklahoma State and didn't want them without Texas.

WVU butthurt attitude towards the ACC really betrays them as you say. I don't think the ACC is as unstable as the Big XII because of the small market reach the conference has and eventually when TCU and WVU get full shares APV will shrink for all 10 members. The ACC should be doing everything it can to get ND fulltime in 2027. If by the next contract's expiration ND will commit to ACC football the conference is safe, and would get a TV contract on par with the B1G atleast. The SEC will always be the most powerful, but as the rust belt keeps shrinking the B1G will lose a little more influence, and Delany retires I doubt his successor will be as evil and efficient as him in doing this stuff(and this is complementing Jim Delany for how he has used his bully pulpit well). The ACC with ND as a football school and whomever the 16th school would be would allow the conference to be the best all-around conference basketball/football and keep the power totally below the west and below the Mason Dixon line with the SEC.

I always envision the SEC as not wanting the ACC to be destroyed and looking at them like a brother who they know can't completely overtake them, and not wanting their enemy (the B1G) to beat them and keeping the power in the South. The B1G's money will be good but that is because of FOX. If the ACC football continues to improve and conference has 3 top 20 teams each year for the next decade then the next contract will get them paid. The B1G contract is going to be a lot because FOX is in bed with Delany and they will overpay because of that relationship, but if the conference continues sucking nothing will change. The B1G East is going to be too stacked and will hurt them IMO and I like the location of recruits in SEC/ACC country keeping those schools afloat while the B1G underbelly will need to win battles in the South to raise their middle while the SEC/ACC schools will have more games to offers those kids in the regions. I like the future of the ACC as long as the schools commit more and more to football which it seems is finally happening.

 

[Lou_C]

I agree with a lot of this. The B1G is the leader of wanting destability and more expansion IMO. They want TV sets for $$$ cable boxes plain and simple for the BTN. The SEC is fine with 14, but if two of UNC/Duke/NC State/UVA/VPI fell into their laps they would probably go to 16. Pac-12 has no options right now unless the Big XII blew up. Colorado State/BYU aren't getting into that conference and unless Texas wanted into the Pac-12 I don't see them expanding. Oklahoma in 2011 was denied membership into the Pac-12 along with Okie State. The Pac-12 wanted UT, A&M, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech for a Pac-16 but when Texas A&M and Texas said no then Oklahoma on its own applied and was denied membership. The Pac-12 is not expanding without Texas even though I would swooped up Oklahoma and Oklahoma State for a Pac-14 if I was Larry Scott and I am sure he did but Stanford allegedly didn't like Oklahoma State and didn't want them without Texas.

WVU butthurt attitude towards the ACC really betrays them as you say. I don't think the ACC is as unstable as the Big XII because of the small market reach the conference has and eventually when TCU and WVU get full shares APV will shrink for all 10 members. The ACC should be doing everything it can to get ND fulltime in 2027. If by the next contract's expiration ND will commit to ACC football the conference is safe, and would get a TV contract on par with the B1G atleast. The SEC will always be the most powerful, but as the rust belt keeps shrinking the B1G will lose a little more influence, and Delany retires I doubt his successor will be as evil and efficient as him in doing this stuff(and this is complementing Jim Delany for how he has used his bully pulpit well). The ACC with ND as a football school and whomever the 16th school would be would allow the conference to be the best all-around conference basketball/football and keep the power totally below the west and below the Mason Dixon line with the SEC.

I always envision the SEC as not wanting the ACC to be destroyed and looking at them like a brother who they know can't completely overtake them, and not wanting their enemy (the B1G) to beat them and keeping the power in the South. The B1G's money will be good but that is because of FOX. If the ACC football continues to improve and conference has 3 top 20 teams each year for the next decade then the next contract will get them paid. The B1G contract is going to be a lot because FOX is in bed with Delany and they will overpay because of that relationship, but if the conference continues sucking nothing will change. The B1G East is going to be too stacked and will hurt them IMO and I like the location of recruits in SEC/ACC country keeping those schools afloat while the B1G underbelly will need to win battles in the South to raise their middle while the SEC/ACC schools will have more games to offers those kids in the regions. I like the future of the ACC as long as the schools commit more and more to football which it seems is finally happening.

Agree with your take on the B1G and the Big 12. While the B1G is the big "winner" in expansion, I really don't think they solved their issues, which are 20-30 years down the road (and already showing up now). Despite the addition of Rutgers and MD, they really got cut off at that pass with no Texas, and no southern teams. The move the B1G needed, in my opinion, was UNC+UVA+GT+Clemson+FSU. Not saying they could have gotten that, but if they had struck at just the right moment and been willing toss aside some of their academic preferences, that would have preserved their relevance in perpetuity. Because what is at stake, and what could have been, you could paint the B1G as a loser in this. I don't think they've significantly strengthened themselves versus their challenges from where they stood five years ago. So I agree, nobody wants instability more than the B1G, and they may be the only ones.

Also agree that the long term future is dimmer for the Big 12 than the ACC. Mainly because the things that hamper the ACC, primarily poor football performance above all, can at least theoretically be reversed, and in fairly short order. Those that face the Big 12, such as small population footprint and extremely regional, and the (perceived) inequity surrounding sharing a conference with Texas, cannot be turned around or at least any time soon. If those things matter, there isn't a good path to the light.

I am always happy to be critical of the ACC. But if you line up the primary problems facing each conference, the ACC certainly has the most potential to reverse their problems:

SEC - none

PAC - Pacific time zone exposure

Big 12 - Tiny footprint, very regional

Big 10 - somewhat declining population, more significantly declining rates of elite football talent

ACC - poor football performance, too many schools for which football success will be extremely difficult

The ACC definitely has more football-disadvantaged schools than would be ideal. But they do have about 5-7 schools that are NOT disadvantaged or whose disadvantages are self-inflicted (UNC, UVA). If they can get 3-4 of them competing at a high level consistently, and just get one of Pitt, SU, BC, NCSU to build a good football program, it can be ok. Plus, that part of the ACC is somewhat mitigated by the fact that some of the more problematic football programs (Duke, UNC, Syracuse) are among the super-elite in basketball.

Compared to what "has to happen" for the other conferences to overcome their challenges, its a lot more plausible.

 

[Lou_C]

And as for the SEC wanting the ACC to survive...agree somewhat. If they could grab UVA and UNC I think they would without regard to the ACC's health, because that would pretty much stonewall the B1G as well as enriching the SEC.

However, if the ACC faltering results in the B1G scooping up UNC, UVA, Duke, GT and Miami let's say, yes, I think the SEC would much rather the ACC to survive and thrive.

 

[Btstimpy]

Honestly, I could create a persona and write more believable stuff than the "Dude." The guy has no sources and completely make stuff up. Sometimes its plausable from looking at things logically or sometimes its pure fantasy to make himself relevant. The "Dude" is Mike Gravel or Alan Keyes type of politican each of them are crazy politicians who think they are relevant when both are rightfully seen as jokes and not taken seriously.
I am sure the Big XII contract has language about re-structuring their TV contract with expansion and new members. Also, practically speaking ESPN/FOX are already overpaying the Big XII right now and if they added more teams and more content and added years to their existing contract I am sure they could get the number close enough that it would work. The "Dude" is so full of crap its a joke.

I know. He certainly doesn't know what he's talking about when it comes to the ACC. But this is what he's saying about the Big XII. He might be full of crap regarding the Big XII too. Probably likely. But this is what he's been saying.

 

[Btstimpy]

Agree with your take on the B1G and the Big 12. While the B1G is the big "winner" in expansion, I really don't think they solved their issues, which are 20-30 years down the road (and already showing up now). Despite the addition of Rutgers and MD, they really got cut off at that pass with no Texas, and no southern teams. The move the B1G needed, in my opinion, was UNC+UVA+GT+Clemson+FSU. Not saying they could have gotten that, but if they had struck at just the right moment and been willing toss aside some of their academic preferences, that would have preserved their relevance in perpetuity. Because what is at stake, and what could have been, you could paint the B1G as a loser in this. I don't think they've significantly strengthened themselves versus their challenges from where they stood five years ago. So I agree, nobody wants instability more than the B1G, and they may be the only ones.

Also agree that the long term future is dimmer for the Big 12 than the ACC. Mainly because the things that hamper the ACC, primarily poor football performance above all, can at least theoretically be reversed, and in fairly short order. Those that face the Big 12, such as small population footprint and extremely regional, and the (perceived) inequity surrounding sharing a conference with Texas, cannot be turned around or at least any time soon. If those things matter, there isn't a good path to the light.

I am always happy to be critical of the ACC. But if you line up the primary problems facing each conference, the ACC certainly has the most potential to reverse their problems:

SEC - none

PAC - Pacific time zone exposure

Big 12 - Tiny footprint, very regional

Big 10 - somewhat declining population, more significantly declining rates of elite football talent

ACC - poor football performance, too many schools for which football success will be extremely difficult

The ACC definitely has more football-disadvantaged schools than would be ideal. But they do have about 5-7 schools that are NOT disadvantaged or whose disadvantages are self-inflicted (UNC, UVA). If they can get 3-4 of them competing at a high level consistently, and just get one of Pitt, SU, BC, NCSU to build a good football program, it can be ok. Plus, that part of the ACC is somewhat mitigated by the fact that some of the more problematic football programs (Duke, UNC, Syracuse) are among the super-elite in basketball.

Compared to what "has to happen" for the other conferences to overcome their challenges, its a lot more plausible.

The Big Ten basically was trying to block the ACC from being the primary conference in the East and to claim that territory for the BTN. They also got worried when Notre Dame joined the ACC about Penn State looking at the ACC. Will Rutgers and Maryland keep Penn State happy? Who knows? What is happening is that demographically the high school football talent is becoming very concentrated in the Atlantic South (i.e. Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia). ESPN ran a segment about it. Pitt, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Boston College will be playing football in those areas now very frequently and have the opportunity to build relationships with the high school coaches in those areas. It can only help with recruiting.

Penn State will still be playing in Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, and Illinois where the high school talent is not located. Maryland will now be doing the same. This is the real demographic challenge facing the Big Ten regarding football. We are already seeing a talent gap between the Big Ten and the SEC as well as the southern ACC schools. Nebraska is feeling it Big Time. They have lost their Texas recruiting base. This is going to widen across the rest of the ACC as long as the ACC can keep good coaches across the board. The ACC needs to continue to improve.

The Big XII will survive as long as Texas and Oklahoma want to be in the Big XII. They get their talent out of Texas. If one of them decides to leave, the Big XII becomes the American Athletic Conference. What does Oliver Luck want to do? Who knows?

The ACC needs to move forward with its television network. I worry that the ACC will start to see a disadvantage in its Olympic Sports recruiting if the Big Ten, SEC, and PAC 12 show theirs on television and the ACC doesn't because of a lack of interest by ESPN. College Athletes like to be on Television. Olympic Sports along with Baseball, Softball, Soccer, Volleyball, and Lacrosse will make up much of the programming of a television network. Football is the bigger fan interest sport, but the others would be the fill in.