One down, 8 to go | Syracusefan.com

One down, 8 to go

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SU94

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I am a big supporter of JAB and nothing will ever change that, but on a personal level, I would have gladly “sacrificed” 1-3 years of “Bonus Boeheim” to ensure 20+ years of Hopkins. But over the weekend, the opposite happened. And the real shame is that things now won’t be the same for JAB after he retires. Not likely having one of his own replace him is going to be a lot less fulfilling for him after he drifts into the sunset.

Now, SU (Boeheim & Wildhack) must string together a daunting series of successes to maintain the lofty stature that program has earned (almost exclusively thanks to JAB), especially the last 30 years. All of these benchmark moments, hirings or decisions (listed below) must be “hits” or the foundation of the program will likely be eroded (to some degree).

Those events are:
1. Boeheim extended (done)
2. Hire a strong assistant coach (pending)
3. Program begins winning again at a rate reflective of the modern SU program (20+ wins/year, top 4-5 finish in ACC/pending)
4. Carrier Dome redo is announced and it is not a coat of paint (pending)
5. Boeheim remain healthy, not a given as he is now 72 and has battled cancer in the past (pending)
6. Boeheim retires peacefully (pending)
7. Resist inherent temptation to give the job to Red or Gerry, unless one of them is genuinely the best man for the job (pending)
8. Wildhack convinces BOT that we need to pay next coach a commensurate salary (pending)
9. Attract top-flight candidates/sign top choice or one near the top of the list (pending)

For those that believed that Hop’s 4-5 stint in the Captain’s Seat last year had ANYTHING to do with long-term capabilities as a HC (at SU or Washington), you are severely misguided. You realize Willie Mays went 1-for-26 to begin his HOF career, right? Right.

And those of you that wanted a National Search … you got your wish. And the chaos/uncertainty that comes with it. And you’ll soon see that to hit on all those marks/events listed above is mathematically improbable (not impossible).

Ask yourselves, how did national searches replacing legends go for UCLA (very poorly), St. John’s (very poorly), Indiana (terribly), Arizona (quite poorly), UNC (poorly), Michigan State (great, Izzo was a CIW)? It’s a selective grouping, of course, but this national search thing is FAR from a sure thing.

Hopkins was easily our best bet.
 
UNC ? Didnt they replace Dean Smith with the longtime assistant Guthridge, then follow him up with Matt D?

Arizona ? Didn't they hire Sean Miller from Xavier?

Nothing is certain and neither is Hopkins having success.

I like the national search because there's so many good options and proven coaches. A new guy can also put his stamp on things.

If Hopkins got out of the gate slow the natives would be restless and the pressure and critics immense, it wouldn't be fair to him.
 
#3 has to happen, and #2 helps it happen... But #2 isn't as much of a necessity as long as #3 happens. I feel like #7-#9 are givens. Wildhack isn't going to just hand the job to Autry/GMac, the school will pay a head coach well, and we are a top-notch program so we'll have our pick of many good candidates. I'd narrow #7-#9 down to one: Wildhack makes a good choice. #5 and #6 are also pretty likely, Boeheim is a heavy favorite to remain healthy for 3-4 years, and I think he'll peacefully go out now that it's on his terms. So really, I'd boil it down to:

- Win at a high level (20+ wins, top-25, top 4 ACC)
- Maintain our facilities as top 10-15 in the country
- Hire the right guy
 
l'orange said:
Yeah, I think we will regret letting such a loyal and experienced coach in Hop slip through our fingers.
Expand...
maybe he hasn't slipped through our fingers. maybe in 5 years, when has proven himself with a couple of Pac 12 titles and several NCAA tournament wins, he returns back home when JB really does retire.

best of both worlds: a loyal SU lifer and a proven P5 coach!

keeping the dream alive
 
Oráiste said:
maybe he hasn't slipped through our fingers. maybe in 5 years, when has proven himself with a couple of Pac 12 titles and several NCAA tournament wins, he returns back home when JB really does retire.

best of both worlds: a loyal SU lifer and a proven P5 coach!

keeping the dream alive
Expand...
If he's winning PAC12 titles, why would he come back to SU?
 
PhatOrange said:
UNC ? Didnt they replace Dean Smith with the longtime assistant Guthridge, then follow him up with Matt D?

Arizona ? Didn't they hire Sean Miller from Xavier?

Nothing is certain and neither is Hopkins having success.

I like the national search because there's so many good options and proven coaches. A new guy can also put his stamp on things.

If Hopkins got out of the gate slow the natives would be restless and the pressure and critics immense, it wouldn't be fair to him.
Expand...
UNC is more difficult to analyze, as they did not go from Dean to Roy Boy. Guthridge coached (2 F4s in 4 years, but things were slipping) and then Matt Dougherty was a problem. They went 8-20 in his 2nd season, and 19-16 in his 3rd and final season. 20 losses for UNC? Impossible not to call that poor.

As for Arizona, Kevin O'Neill and Russ Pennell combined to coach for 4 years before Sean Miller arrived. They got busted for violations and had their string of NCAA appearances snapped. Perhaps "quite poorly" as I wrote was too strong, but that was far from ideal. Let's go with "poor" overall.
 
SU94 said:
Those events are:
1. Boeheim extended (done)
2. Hire a strong assistant coach (pending)
3. Program begins winning again at a rate reflective of the modern SU program (20+ wins/year, top 4-5 finish in ACC/pending)
4. Carrier Dome redo is announced and it is not a coat of paint (pending)
5. Boeheim remain healthy, not a given as he is now 72 and has battled cancer in the past (pending)
6. Boeheim retires peacefully (pending)
7. Resist inherent temptation to give the job to Red or Gerry, unless one of them is genuinely the best man for the job (pending)
8. Wildhack convinces BOT that we need to pay next coach a commensurate salary (pending)
9. Attract top-flight candidates/sign top choice or one near the top of the list (pending)

Ask yourselves, how did national searches replacing legends go for UCLA (very poorly), St. John’s (very poorly), Indiana (terribly), Arizona (quite poorly), UNC (poorly), Michigan State (great, Izzo was a CIW)? It’s a selective grouping, of course, but this national search thing is FAR from a sure thing.
Expand...

2. That's going to be really, really interesting. I don't like the internal options, and it would be bizarre to have someone come in from the 'otherworld' to sit atop the incumbent home-growns.
3. I don't know how this is going to happen. 20 wins, maybe, with some scheduling hijinks. Top 4-5 in-conference, i'm not seeing that without some major talent infusion.
4. Whoever is responsible for SU Design and Branding needs a new career. We could be soooo much better. It shouldn't look like a Kinko's part-timer is playing 'art director.'
6. I don't know what that means. I think a large part of him wanting to stay is his stubbornness and not wanting to go out as a failed NIT/middle of the pack ACC coach. But, how are we going to be better next year? And the recruiting for next year and the year after that will be largely based on our recent past, which is unlikely to swing around. So, what determines when JB will say 'enough?' I'm hoping it's just a matter of the AD identifying a replacement, early enough to either stimulate, or at least not harm recruiting and continuity. Maybe it's true the admin was actually expecting Hopkins and has no short list contingency, and they're only now getting on with that search. I would have hoped they would have had a Plan C.
7. We will never, ever know if Red or Gerry is the "best man for the job." I can't even see how we would have even a high degree of confidence in Gerry, and i don't know enough about Red's accomplishments in coaching. Do they even matter at that level?
9. I hope they will only entertain candidates who don't have ties to more prestigious opportunities. I don't want to be a stepping stone or an interim destination. We were spoiled by 4 decades of continuity. A carousel (no pun) would not be happy-making.
 
SU94 said:
Ask yourselves, how did national searches replacing legends go for UCLA (very poorly), St. John’s (very poorly), Indiana (terribly), Arizona (quite poorly), UNC (poorly), Michigan State (great, Izzo was a CIW)? It’s a selective grouping, of course, but this national search thing is FAR from a sure thing.
Expand...
I'm not sure what your point is here. Is it that a national search is a good thing or hiring internally is better? You have given examples that support both stances.
 
Oráiste said:
same reason Steve Alford would consider going back to Indiana
Expand...
Alford is an Indiana native. Hop is a Cali guy. Hop got tired of being HCIW, whereas Alford was never on Indiana's staff as an assistant. Alford will command top $$$ and Indiana can pay it. I don't think SU can match UW or any PAC12 team. I don't think Hop and Alford are a good comparison.
 
dollarbill44 said:
I'm not sure what your point is here. Is it that a national search is a good thing or hiring internally is better? You have given examples that support both stances.
Expand...
Look at those schools after they replaced the legends only. Some ended up in great spot, but only after years of disappointment (UNC for instance). Perhaps the chief allure of Boeheim's SU basketball program is that we win "every" year. Yes, this was a down season, but we still won 19 games. We have the longest current string of winning seasons in (significant) American sports (perhaps most in history, not sure).

I think you have a good point on St. John's. They replaced Canasecca with Mahoney, who was internal. My bad.
 
PhatOrange said:
UNC ? Didnt they replace Dean Smith with the longtime assistant Guthridge, then follow him up with Matt D?

Arizona ? Didn't they hire Sean Miller from Xavier?

Nothing is certain and neither is Hopkins having success.

I like the national search because there's so many good options and proven coaches. A new guy can also put his stamp on things.

If Hopkins got out of the gate slow the natives would be restless and the pressure and critics immense, it wouldn't be fair to him.
Expand...
When Lute Olson stepped down, Arizona went through 2 coaches before hiring Sean Miller. 2007-08 season was Kevin O'Neill who was promoted from Olson's asst. He went 19-15 and was fired. The next season was Russ Pennell who I think was also an asst. He went 21-14 in 2008-09. Then he was fired and replaced by Sean Miller.
 
SU94 said:
I am a big supporter of JAB and nothing will ever change that, but on a personal level, I would have gladly “sacrificed” 1-3 years of “Bonus Boeheim” to ensure 20+ years of Hopkins. But over the weekend, the opposite happened. And the real shame is that things now won’t be the same for JAB after he retires. Not likely having one of his own replace him is going to be a lot less fulfilling for him after he drifts into the sunset.

Now, SU (Boeheim & Wildhack) must string together a daunting series of successes to maintain the lofty stature that program has earned (almost exclusively thanks to JAB), especially the last 30 years. All of these benchmark moments, hirings or decisions (listed below) must be “hits” or the foundation of the program will likely be eroded (to some degree).

Those events are:
1. Boeheim extended (done)
2. Hire a strong assistant coach (pending)
3. Program begins winning again at a rate reflective of the modern SU program (20+ wins/year, top 4-5 finish in ACC/pending)
4. Carrier Dome redo is announced and it is not a coat of paint (pending)
5. Boeheim remain healthy, not a given as he is now 72 and has battled cancer in the past (pending)
6. Boeheim retires peacefully (pending)
7. Resist inherent temptation to give the job to Red or Gerry, unless one of them is genuinely the best man for the job (pending)
8. Wildhack convinces BOT that we need to pay next coach a commensurate salary (pending)
9. Attract top-flight candidates/sign top choice or one near the top of the list (pending)

For those that believed that Hop’s 4-5 stint in the Captain’s Seat last year had ANYTHING to do with long-term capabilities as a HC (at SU or Washington), you are severely misguided. You realize Willie Mays went 1-for-26 to begin his HOF career, right? Right.

And those of you that wanted a National Search … you got your wish. And the chaos/uncertainty that comes with it. And you’ll soon see that to hit on all those marks/events listed above is mathematically improbable (not impossible).

Ask yourselves, how did national searches replacing legends go for UCLA (very poorly), St. John’s (very poorly), Indiana (terribly), Arizona (quite poorly), UNC (poorly), Michigan State (great, Izzo was a CIW)? It’s a selective grouping, of course, but this national search thing is FAR from a sure thing.

Hopkins was easily our best bet.
Expand...

Number two is done. His name is Red Autry, Mike Hopkins replacement. The open position will be filled by a less than impactful coach, it is an entry-level position now that the others have been promoted. Why don't people understand this? The coaches who will be responsible for 99% of the program success in the next few years are in place now.
 
Madbiker said:
When Lute Olson stepped down, Arizona went through 2 coaches before hiring Sean Miller. 2007-08 season was Kevin O'Neill who was promoted from Olson's asst. He went 19-15 and was fired. The next season was Russ Pennell who I think was also an asst. He went 21-14 in 2008-09. Then he was fired and replaced by Sean Miller.
Expand...

Thanks for clarifying.

This is the other reason why I'm glad Hop left. I don't want to see him get fired from Syracuse.
 
SU94 said:
Look at those schools after they replaced the legends only. Some ended up in great spot, but only after years of disappointment (UNC for instance). Perhaps the chief allure of Boeheim's SU basketball program is that we win "every" year. Yes, this was a down season, but we still won 19 games. We have the longest current string of winning seasons in (significant) American sports (perhaps most in history, not sure).

I think you have a good point on St. John's. They replaced Canasecca with Mahoney, who was internal. My bad.
Expand...
UNC replaced Smith with Bill Guthridge, the longtime assistant coach. He went to a final four, sweet 16 and final four in his three seasons as coach. I'd take that. And no one was going to uphold Wooden's success.
I wasn't sure if you were advocating for hiring from within or externally.
 
Oráiste said:
maybe he hasn't slipped through our fingers. maybe in 5 years, when has proven himself with a couple of Pac 12 titles and several NCAA tournament wins, he returns back home when JB really does retire.

best of both worlds: a loyal SU lifer and a proven P5 coach!

keeping the dream alive
Expand...
Hop is a west coast guy. It would take an unheard of series of events to bring him back. He's gone forever. You can thank JB's pouting. Put it this way, if JB said: "Mike, it's time for me to move on and spend more time watching my kids. Let's start going after the players that you want to build your brand." I highly doubt Mike would take any other offer to leave if JB was sincerely backing the transition. And that's the bottom line. JB wasn't stupid. He planted the seeds for these turn of events... even if he isn't officially culpable.
 
Oráiste said:
maybe he hasn't slipped through our fingers. maybe in 5 years, when has proven himself with a couple of Pac 12 titles and several NCAA tournament wins, he returns back home when JB really does retire.

best of both worlds: a loyal SU lifer and a proven P5 coach!

keeping the dream alive
Expand...
Hop is NEVER coming back. That ship has sailed. He either will or won't be Washington's JB
 
FrancoPizza said:
Hop is a west coast guy. It would take an unheard of series of events to bring him back. He's gone forever. You can thank JB's pouting. Put it this way, if JB said: "Mike, it's time for me to move on and spend more time watching my kids. Let's start going after the players that you want to build your brand." I highly doubt Mike would take any other offer to leave if JB was sincerely backing the transition. And that's the bottom line. JB wasn't stupid. He planted the seeds for these turn of events... even if he isn't officially culpable.
Expand...
If you listened to the presser, JB talked about the recruiting and coaching swinging towards Hop. Wildhack talked about meeting with Hop working on the transition.
Why make some fantasy story that isn't true.
 
SU94 said:
I am a big supporter of JAB and nothing will ever change that, but on a personal level, I would have gladly “sacrificed” 1-3 years of “Bonus Boeheim” to ensure 20+ years of Hopkins. But over the weekend, the opposite happened. And the real shame is that things now won’t be the same for JAB after he retires. Not likely having one of his own replace him is going to be a lot less fulfilling for him after he drifts into the sunset.

Now, SU (Boeheim & Wildhack) must string together a daunting series of successes to maintain the lofty stature that program has earned (almost exclusively thanks to JAB), especially the last 30 years. All of these benchmark moments, hirings or decisions (listed below) must be “hits” or the foundation of the program will likely be eroded (to some degree).

Those events are:
1. Boeheim extended (done)
2. Hire a strong assistant coach (pending)
3. Program begins winning again at a rate reflective of the modern SU program (20+ wins/year, top 4-5 finish in ACC/pending)
4. Carrier Dome redo is announced and it is not a coat of paint (pending)
5. Boeheim remain healthy, not a given as he is now 72 and has battled cancer in the past (pending)
6. Boeheim retires peacefully (pending)
7. Resist inherent temptation to give the job to Red or Gerry, unless one of them is genuinely the best man for the job (pending)
8. Wildhack convinces BOT that we need to pay next coach a commensurate salary (pending)
9. Attract top-flight candidates/sign top choice or one near the top of the list (pending)

For those that believed that Hop’s 4-5 stint in the Captain’s Seat last year had ANYTHING to do with long-term capabilities as a HC (at SU or Washington), you are severely misguided. You realize Willie Mays went 1-for-26 to begin his HOF career, right? Right.

And those of you that wanted a National Search … you got your wish. And the chaos/uncertainty that comes with it. And you’ll soon see that to hit on all those marks/events listed above is mathematically improbable (not impossible).

Ask yourselves, how did national searches replacing legends go for UCLA (very poorly), St. John’s (very poorly), Indiana (terribly), Arizona (quite poorly), UNC (poorly), Michigan State (great, Izzo was a CIW)? It’s a selective grouping, of course, but this national search thing is FAR from a sure thing.

Hopkins was easily our best bet.
Expand...


I think that nearly every one of the conclusions you reached in that post aren't grounded in reality and are completely off the wall.
 
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