One seed predictions (long)

[cliftonparksufan]

I really should wait until Sunday to post this, but except for Kentucky's game vs Vandy, all of this week's games involving the top teams are in the book. Looking at this, assuming none of the top teams fall off the face of the earth, I believe that Cuse and Kentucky are almost guaranteed a number one seed. In fact, you could almost use a sharpie to pencil them in.

Here are their records, their AP ranking and where they ranked in the RPI as of this morning. Also, each team has five or six regular season games left, so I am listing their toughest games (vs ranked opponents)

For this exercise, I believe that there are only seven teams with a chance at a one seed right now, although depending how things fall, there is a very, very small chance that one of these three teams could sneak in if they went undefeated going forward (Duke-with four losses, Mich State-with five losses and Georgetown with five losses).

The seven teams I looked at, in order of the their AP rankings were Kentucky, Cuse, OSU, Missouri, UNC, Baylor and Kansas. I did not and will not look at Murray State because even if they hadn't lost, they could be 50-0 and still not get a one seed.

Here are their records thru today (not counting the Kentucky game) and their RPI ranking

Kentucky 24-1, RPI #2, ranked games @ Miss State (20) and @ Florida (8). Write them down with a sharpie now.

Cuse 25-1, RPI # 1, ranked games @ Louisville (24) home vs Louisville (24). See you in Pittsburgh

OSU 21-4, RPI # 3, ranked games, @ Mich (22), Home Wisky (21) @ MSU (11). Loss to MSU might not kill them and their other three losses were all on the road to Kansas, Indiana and Illinois. Nothing to exclude them yet, but still need to win a few game, Have the most games vs ranked opponents, so they pretty much control their own destiny. Over 50% lock but still has lots of work to do.

Missouri 23-2, RPI #4, ranked games @ Kansas (7). Has already beaten Baylor twice and Kansas once so they are in the drivers seat. Would have to decapitate themselves not to get a one seed. Almost a 50% chance.

UNC 21-4, RPI #7, ranked games @ Virginia (19), @ Duke (10). Losing to Duke will hurt them when the committee compares resumes. Also losing to UNLV and FSU won't really help them either.

Baylor 21-4 RPI #6, no more ranked games left. However they have lost twice to Kansas and Missouri. You could almost rule them out, but depending on what OSU and UNC do, if Baylor wins the Big 12, they could possibly sneak in there as a second Big 12 team.

Kansas 20-5, RPI #8, only ranked game home vs Missouri (4). Have lost to Kentucky, Duke, Missouri, Davidson, Iowa State. Very, very slim.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I've been thinking about this same topic today, and agree with pretty much everything you said.

It can be pretty much simplified to say: UK and SU really have #1 seeds wrapped up (barring total meltdowns). Mizzou is right there on the cusp of joining us and UK.

You basically have 4 or 5 teams fighting it out for the last #1 seed: Ohio State, UNC, Duke, Kansas and I would now through Michigan State in there. If they win the Big Ten, they will probably get a #1 seed. I think Baylor is a longshot right now because of their recent slump. They can't overtake Mizzou, so they are basically done in the 1 seed hunt.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I've been thinking about this same topic today, and agree with pretty much everything you said.

It can be pretty much simplified to say: UK and SU really have #1 seeds wrapped up (barring total meltdowns). Mizzou is right there on the cusp of joining us and UK.

You basically have 4 or 5 teams fighting it out for the last #1 seed: Ohio State, UNC, Duke, Kansas and I would now through Michigan State in there. If they win the Big Ten, they will probably get a #1 seed. I think Baylor is a longshot right now because of their recent slump. They can't overtake Mizzou, so they are basically done in the 1 seed hunt.

I mentioned MSU, but they have so much going against them. They have five losses and UNC and Duke are two of them. If they are head to head with one of those schools for the final one seed, they would probably lose out cause of that. Their other three losses were all on the road against Northwestern, Michigan and Illinois. They would need a lot of help, since that's not the best resume for a one seed.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I mentioned MSU, but they have so much going against them. They have five losses and UNC and Duke are two of them. If they are head to head with one of those schools for the final one seed, they would probably lose out cause of that. Their other three losses were all on the road against Northwestern, Michigan and Illinois. They would need a lot of help, since that's not the best resume for a one seed.

Yes, the losses to Duke and UNC would hurt them, but not as much as you would think because they were the first two games of the year for them. They are basically 20-3 after those losses. That's pretty damn good.

Big Ten is the best conference this year. I'd think you'd have to give the winner of the Big Ten a #1 seed. That being said, MSU has a difficult schedule ahead. They will have every opportunity to prove themselves worthy of a 1 seed if they can successfully navigate their schedule. However, if the Big Ten teams end up beating themselves up, I could see them not getting a 1 seed. That would mean greater than 6 losses overall for their champ (Ohio State or Mich St), which is very possible.

 

[orangenauburn]

baylor is done -- 2 seed, wont be surprised to see them slip to 3

 

[HakAttack]

OP - you've got the wrong RPI info.

Duke's currently #2, followed by UK, OSU, Kansas and Baylor.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/RPI?id=2012-02-11

 

[HakAttack]

IMO, #1 seeds are Cuse, UK, Duke and OSU/Kansas.

OSU might have lost the inside track with their loss to MSU today.

 

[PoppyHart]

Duke has wins over UNC, MSU, and Kansas. Not sure how you can discount that right now.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

OP - you've got the wrong RPI info.

Duke's currently #2, followed by UK, OSU, Kansas and Baylor.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/RPI?id=2012-02-11

Here is the website that I used

http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Duke has wins over UNC, MSU, and Kansas. Not sure how you can discount that right now.

They also have losses against Miami, Florida State and Temple. They could win out and still might only be the 5th #1.

 

[PoppyHart]

They also have losses against Miami, Florida State and Temple. They could win out and still might only be the 5th #1.

So you think a team with a #2 RPI, the #1 SOS, and an implied 11 game winning streak ("could win out") to end the season, including a minimum 2, and maybe 3, wins over UNC, would only warrant a 2 seed?

 

[cliftonparksufan]

So you think a team with a #2 RPI, the #1 SOS, and an implied 11 game winning streak ("could win out") to end the season, including a minimum 2, and maybe 3, wins over UNC, would only warrant a 2 seed?

Possibly, if Missouri and Ohio State did the same. But then again we are talking about Duke. If you look above in the original OP, I did mention that they along with MSU and Georgetown could have a small chance to become a #1 if they go undefeated.

However, I think if you compare Duke's resume to Missouri and OSU, I believe they are 3rd.

 

[Madbiker]

While it looks good at this moment, it's too early to call this a lock. If we were to lose twice to Ville and also at UConn and Duke and Kansas win out (which is certainly possible looking at their schedules) we would be pushed off the 1 line. Not saying it happens but it is possible.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

While it looks good at this moment, it's too early to call this a lock. If we were to lose twice to Ville and also at UConn and Duke and Kansas win out (which is certainly possible looking at their schedules) we would be pushed off the 1 line. Not saying it happens but it is possible.

3 wins locks us in as a 1 seed, imo (with the one caveat that we don't lose 3 games in a row headed into the NCAAs).

 

[HakAttack]

Here is the website that I used

http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/

Yeah, if you click on that, the first view is the "power rating". You need to click on the "switch to RPI ratings" and you'll get the same team order that I did.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Yeah, if you click on that, the first view is the "power rating". You need to click on the "switch to RPI ratings" and you'll get the same team order that I did.

Interesting. I never knew they had two different ratings on that website. I would assume that they have always had it like that but I have never noticed it. Any idea how they differ as far as being weighted? That would change things somewhat with Duke, but I think they still have some work to do.

 

[jordoo]

I agree that SU & UK re basically locks. I'd say right now Mizzu has separated form the rest of that pack as the 3rd one see. Everyone else mentioned is trying for the 4th spot right now and if things hold it will be interesting to see if the NCAA goes with OSU over Duke/UNC.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I agree that SU & UK re basically locks. I'd say right now Mizzu has separated form the rest of that pack as the 3rd one see. Everyone else mentioned is trying for the 4th spot right now and if things hold it will be interesting to see if the NCAA goes with OSU over Duke/UNC.

What I saw today had Cuse, UK, Kansas and Missouri as the one seeds. I guess they figured that Kansas beat OSU so they put them above them. Interesting that it's very possible that no Big 10 and no ACC get one seeds.