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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4074762, member: 1969"] 6 would be unlikely in my view. 5, with 4 being a downside possibility is my guess. I make these "guestimates" not based on looking at individual teams, but what the league will do for middle of the packs come regular season. And it won't be much because there will be much less Q1 and Q2 wins. Of course "mix" matters a bit too. But I always bring up the 2018 Big Ten which had 4 teams make the tourney and a 13-5 team very cleanly get left out. And the 9-9 teams were not particularly close either... could have been out even if they got to 11. The fact that 4 teams dominated hurt a bit. But they really, really stank OOC in 2018 and that is what happens [ATTACH type="full"]211321[/ATTACH] [/QUOTE]