OT / General Interest: NCAA Bubble and Tourney Impact Games March 9 and 10

[jncuse]

Starting a thread, calling it OT, because we are not involved in it... we only come back in discussion once (large if) beat Duke or UNC.
Still something I follow though, to note the games of interest on a particular day even if its less interesting at this point.

Only using the 77 brackets updated yesterday
(Note even though some teams are 100% on the brackets, closing the season 0-2 this weekend and next week would not be good, I don't view anybody below as locks yet

Last 8 in
Nebraska 77 (100%) (Q2 at Michigan, Sun 12:00)
Florida Atlantic 77 (100%) (Q2 Win at Home vs Memphis)
Miss St 76 (99%) (Q2 Loss at home South Carolina)
Seton Hall 76 (99%) (Q4 vs Depaul, Sat 8:00)
Virginia 71 (91%) (Q3 vs Georgia Tech, Sat 8:00)
St Johns 68 (88%) (Q4 Win at Home vs Georgetown)
Villanova 59 (74%) (Q1 Loss at home vs Creighton,)
New Mexico 56 (71%) (Q1 at Utah St, Sat 8:30)
--------
Colorado 48 (Q3 Win at Oregon St)
Providence 18 (Q1 vs UConn, Sat 8:00)
Drake 8 ** (Q2 Win vs Bradley MVC Semi's)
Iowa 7 (Q1 vs Illinois, Sun 7:00)
Utah 5 (Q1 at Oregon, Sat 7:00)
Pitt 4 (Q3 vs NC ST, Sat 7:45)
Texas A&M 3 (Q2 Win at Ole Miss)
Wake 1 (Q1 Win vs Clemson)

** Drake had Q4 win in MVC quarters yesterday,

 

[jncuse]

Some general observations

- In terms of current games right now, Villanova was getting their butt kicked 30-8 (now 34-20) vs Creighton. This was a game they could have really used. See point below
- There are a bunch of winnable Q1 games for teams below the line right now that could get back in "reasonable" discussion, Iowa, Texas A&M and Wake. Texas A&M is currently up by 13.
- Unfortunate that 2 of the Big East teams got Georgetown and Depaul for anti-climatic games when they are well above the line.

- Florida Atlantic probably locked their bid with a Q2 win today as long as they a really bad loss in AAC, which will then make them debatable. I'm not a huge fan of their resume if you compare them to USF.

-

 

[jncuse]

Texas A&M probably has had the strangest season of a bubble team. They will be the test of quanity/quality wins vs bad losses.

They are up 17 in a road Q2 game against Ole Miss

Assuming they close out the game there record is as follows:
18-13 Overall
6-6 in Q1
4-4 in Q2
2-4 in Q3

They also had a 5 game losing streak recently, and now are about to win their 3rd in a row.

 

[sufan59]

I will say this we are definitely out of the field as of today, but I do think the bracketologists have underrated just how far out Syracuse currently is. UNC off to an early lead at Cameron. I think from our signature win perspective, UNC winning this one helps.

 

[jncuse]

I will say this we are definitely out of the field as of today, but I do think the bracketologists have underrated just how far out Syracuse currently is. UNC off to an early lead at Cameron. I think from our signature win perspective, UNC winning this one helps.

We got a nice signature win. Problem is we only have one other Q1 win (at Pitt)... and other than UNC, we don't have a Q1 or Q2 win against a team that as of now is a tournament team.

We are just a bit short on quality / quantity of quality.

 

[jncuse]

I like Chaos around the line -- and teams above the line are 2-2 today, and teams below the line are 4-0 with a Q1 win and 2 Q2 wins.

As of now, i would not have New Mexico in, unlike the consensus. If they get a Q1 win today it really helps them, but if they lose I don't think they are in great shape.

 

[bpo57]

Curious what you think of Loyola Chicago's chances? Co-champs of the A-10. Have won 17 of their last 20. Beat Dayton head to head and finished ahead of them in the conference. On the other hand they are mid-80s on the Net and mid 90s on Kenpom. I've watched them play at least five times and there is no way there are 85 to 90 teams better than LC.

 

[benjams77]

I will say this we are definitely out of the field as of today, but I do think the bracketologists have underrated just how far out Syracuse currently is. UNC off to an early lead at Cameron. I think from our signature win perspective, UNC winning this one helps.

I agree here completely .. I think we are closer than they are thinking.. Somehow our NET went up 5 spots last night to 79.. I think its gonna be big how much the committee knocks under.500 conf record.. Those Teams have gotten in in past but not many... and also overall record to losses... How many is enough.. 17-14 Nova is alot... With these two scenarios it eliminates 4 teams.. Its gonna come down to who the committee values more.. The mid Big east or Mid ACC - St Johns, Nova, Providence, SH vs Wake, Pitt, Virginia, Cuse

 

[jncuse]

Results for Yesterday's Night Games and some games today now updated below.
- Nebraska if there was any doubt, probably locked it up.
- Villanova and New Mexico blew opportunities to really strengthen their resume with impressive Q1 wins that were plausible. Utah also blew their Q1 opportinity.
- No teams did anything stu
- Wake gets big Q1 game against Clemson - they probably still need one quality win
- Big chance tonight for Iowa to really move up with home Q1 game against Illinois.


Last 8 in
Nebraska 77 (100%) (Q2 Win at Michigan)
Florida Atlantic 77 (100%) (Q2 Win at Home vs Memphis)
Miss St 76 (99%) (Q2 Loss at home South Carolina)
Seton Hall 76 (99%) (Q4 Win vs Depaul)
Virginia 71 (91%) (Q3 Win vs Georgia Tech)
St Johns 68 (88%) (Q4 Win at Home vs Georgetown)
Villanova 59 (74%) (Q1 Loss at home vs Creighton,)
New Mexico 56 (71%) (Q1 Loss at Utah St)
--------
Colorado 48 (Q3 Win at Oregon St)
Providence 18 (Q1 Loss vs UConn)
Drake 8 ** (Q2 Win vs Bradley MVC Semi's)
Iowa 7 (Q1 vs Illinois, Sun 7:00)
Utah 5 (Q1 Loss at Oregon)
Pitt 4 (Q3 Win vs NC ST,)
Texas A&M 3 (Q2 Win at Ole Miss)
Wake 1 (Q1 Win vs Clemson)

 

[jncuse]

Drake looks like it will win the MVC title over Indiana St.
If you were a bubble team this is not the result you wanted... Indiana St more likely than not doesn't still a bid, but the possibility arises anyway.

The question now is whether Indiana St is a bid stealer.

1-4 in Q1 (after today)
4-1 in Q2
1 bad loss
NET will be around 30

I think they will fall into the #1 line in the NIT, but they do bring some chaos to the selection.

 

[swish7]

Anyhow, I just wanted to say I am watching Drake v Indiana State. 10-0 run by IS to make a comeback. This time of year is so fun.

 

[jncuse]

Curious what you think of Loyola Chicago's chances? Co-champs of the A-10. Have won 17 of their last 20. Beat Dayton head to head and finished ahead of them in the conference. On the other hand they are mid-80s on the Net and mid 90s on Kenpom. I've watched them play at least five times and there is no way there are 85 to 90 teams better than LC.

I don't like their chances (basically nil)- just comes down to lacking quality wins and a few bad losses including a Q4. I tend to evaluate largely independent of your individual NET, and focus on quality win record and bad losses, because that is how the committee generally looks at thing.

Loyola and USF have similar resumes -- both have done very well in solid conferences, with one big mistake (or two for USF) in OOC. But they both lack quality wins.

For Loyola
1-2 in Q1
5-6 in Q1+Q2
2 bad losses, including a Q4

None of them standout as positive, and then add in a NET in the 80's they don't get considered.

Loyola (and USF for that matter) may be about as good some of the middling teams that get in from the P6 conferences, but they just don't have the resumes to compete with them (in part because of lack of opportunity)

 

[jncuse]

Anyhow, I just wanted to say I am watching Drake v Indiana State. 10-0 run by IS to make a comeback. This time of year is so fun.

Now 16-1 run... down to a 1 point game.
And now a potential 4 point play for Indiana St... good stuff.

 

[orangenauburn]

How is beating Michigan a Q2 win?

Michigan is trash

 

[Fly Rodder]

Colgate wins!

 

[jncuse]

I agree here completely .. I think we are closer than they are thinking.. Somehow our NET went up 5 spots last night to 79.. I think its gonna be big how much the committee knocks under.500 conf record.. Those Teams have gotten in in past but not many... and also overall record to losses... How many is enough.. 17-14 Nova is alot... With these two scenarios it eliminates 4 teams.. Its gonna come down to who the committee values more.. The mid Big east or Mid ACC - St Johns, Nova, Providence, SH vs Wake, Pitt, Virginia, Cuse

Regarding your 2 bolded actors
1) There is a number of teams with sub .500 conference records that have received bids historically. I would say most years have at least one, and probably more often than not a couple of them.

The committee has always shown that it comes down to quality wins. Does not look at your individual conference record -- of course getting a good conference record generally leads to the goodies they look for, but they don't give a crap if your 11-9 in the ACC vs 8-10 elsewhere, especially if that other team has more quality wins.

So I certainly wouldn't count on that one.

2) Generally the Big East teams have 1 or 2 more Q1 wins than the ACC teams listed. Seton Hall and Virginia are fine either way.

Regarding Nova, they are a NET darling, but the 3 bad losses they have will hurt them in the end. They are likely not getting in without doing something next week. But when it comes to teams like SH vs ACC teams, its just about quality wins.

 

[djorange1989]

How is beating Michigan a Q2 win?

Michigan is trash

Seriously, they are almost as bad as Louisville, maybe even as bad

 

[pwong]

I agree here completely .. I think we are closer than they are thinking.. Somehow our NET went up 5 spots last night to 79.. I think its gonna be big how much the committee knocks under.500 conf record.. Those Teams have gotten in in past but not many... and also overall record to losses... How many is enough.. 17-14 Nova is alot... With these two scenarios it eliminates 4 teams.. Its gonna come down to who the committee values more.. The mid Big east or Mid ACC - St Johns, Nova, Providence, SH vs Wake, Pitt, Virginia, Cuse

I would take St Johns and SH over Wake and UVA... Nova keeps playing themselves out of it.

 

[jncuse]

How is beating Michigan a Q2 win?

Michigan is trash

Sort of like us beating Georgia Tech would have been a Q2 win. If we had won, of course.

Michigan and GT have been straddling that 135 line all year.

They extend Q2 road games out a fair distance (NET 75-135) to consider the fact that conference road games are not always that easy.

 

[djorange1989]

Sort of like us beating Georgia Tech would have been a Q2 win. If we had won, of course.

Michigan and GT have been straddling that 135 line all year.

They extend Q2 road games out a fair distance (NET 75-135) to consider the fact that conference road games are not always that easy.

At least Georgia Tech has some awesome Q1 wins on their resume, Michigan is garbage, 16 losses in their last 18 games

 

[djorange1989]

Indiana State is good, they deserve a bid. Unless we rally this week and are on the bubble, then they suck

 

[jncuse]

Although I just fired shots at Georgia Tech,, they have an amazing quality win profile. Such an odd year for them.

4 Q1 Wins (4-6)
4 Q2 Wins (4-7)

In fact there 4 Q1 wins, are all "Q1A" wins as they are in the top half of the 1-75 range. There might be less than a dozen teams in the country who have that stat.

Looking at that on a standalone basis and more years than not that easily gets you in the tournament.

Of course teams with quality wins like that don't lose to UMass Lowell, BC, Notre Dame and Louisville at home either.

 

[jncuse]

At least Georgia Tech has some awesome Q1 wins on their resume, Michigan is garbage, 16 losses in their last 18 games

That is fair that GT is better than Michigan. Neither wins are difference makers on your resume... you can't lose to them either.

Just like not all Q1 games are the same, not all Q2 games are the same. You will get some "modest" P6 teams that sneak under the 135 road criteria like Michigan. If Nebraska was right on the line in terms of the teams getting discussed, that win against Michigan may get diminished. If you get right on the bubble line the quads / wins get scrubbed especially on the edges.

Winning against Michigan or Georgia Tech aren't really going to help your resume much. But losing those games (even if borderline Q2) will unfortunately. We needed that game.

 

[jncuse]

You did a great job writing up the dream explaination if everyone is shocked on selection Sunday with Cuse getting a bid in a post the other day. Essentially were qualitative about it, quoted the strength of schedule and strength of record and mentioned there are a variety of quantitative and qualitative variables that they synthesize.

It seemed you were being a bit facitious (and hopeful, I know you're a diehard fan) since you seem quite convinced the committee really only cares about NET and Quad win/losses, based on NET.

Then another poster pasted the stated selection criterion that the committee makes public and it quite explicitly hits all your points in the 'hopeful narrative' above (a broad spectrum of quatitative and qualitative variables).

I am not saying we are in but we have a ton of decent wins to go along with a top tier win (using most rankings outside of NET), and a great strength of schedule with a good record against it (compared to bubbly teams). If NET is not 70% of the criteria (I don't think it is) then we have a better shot with just 1 more win than most people think.

Unless that 1 more win is Duke or UNC, than we won't really be in the discussion.

My argument was based on getting a top half Q1 road win at Clemson (giving us two top half Q1) and focusing on our strengths (Disregarding NET either way). Only 2 top half Q1 games in the ACC tourney - Duke and UNC.

 

[djorange1989]

That is fair that GT is better than Michigan. Neither wins are difference makers on your resume... you can't lose to them either.

Just like not all Q1 games are the same, not all Q2 games are the same. You will get some "modest" P6 teams that sneak under the 135 road criteria like Michigan. If Nebraska was right on the line in terms of the teams getting discussed, that win against Michigan may get diminished. If you get right on the bubble line the quads / wins get scrubbed especially on the edges.

Winning against Michigan or Georgia Tech aren't really going to help your resume much. But losing those games (even if borderline Q2) will unfortunately. We needed that game.

Yeah the GT, BC and FSU games all bug me