OT - The NFL and the tendency to defer

[OttoinGrotto]

http://mmqb.si.com/2016/01/14/nfl-c...chickin-toss-deferral-patriots-bill-belichick

Interesting article, doesn't really come to any conclusions though.

I love the quote from Arians.

 

[Alsacs]

I would always want an extra possession in the 2nd half rather than the 1st half. By deferring you can set yourself up to score at the end of the half and get the ball to start the 2nd half.

Taking the ball even if you have a good offense wouldn't be my choice. Again if my team can't keep the game close in the first half then taking the ball to start the game won't make a difference.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I would always want an extra possession in the 2nd half rather than the 1st half. By deferring you can set yourself up to score at the end of the half and get the ball to start the 2nd half.

Taking the ball even if you have a good offense wouldn't be my choice. Again if my team can't keep the game close in the first half then taking the ball to start the game won't make a difference.

It comes down to mindset. My mindset is that every time my opponent's offense takes the ball for the first time they're already down a touchdown.

This quote by Seely is really dumb to me:

“You want the ball coming out in the second half because you just feel like you can go down, score, and set the tempo for the whole rest of the game.”

And you don't feel like you can go down, score, and set the tempo for the whole rest of the game at the start of the game? Why wait until the half to set the tempo for the game?

Also, just in case the original link didn't work:

http://mmqb.si.com/2016/01/14/nfl-coin-toss-deferral-patriots-bill-belichick

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

I've always been a fan of Defer. Nothing more unsettling to me than your opponent kicking a field goal to end the half, then getting the ball back to start the 3rd Quarter. You theoretically could be down as much as 16 without touching the ball.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I've always been a fan of Defer. Nothing more unsettling to me than your opponent kicking a field goal to end the half, then getting the ball back to start the 3rd Quarter. You theoretically could be down as much as 16 without touching the ball.

I think the odds are greater of scoring a TD to start the game than closing the half with the ball, scoring, and then scoring again to start the half.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I'm sure Ernie Adams did the math on this. The Patriots aren't going to do something that could possibly cost them points.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'm sure Ernie Adams did the math on this. The Patriots aren't going to do something that could possibly cost them points.

Eh. They cheat sometimes knowing they might get punished.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

I think the odds are greater of scoring a TD to start the game than closing the half with the ball, scoring, and then scoring again to start the half.

That's quite true. My feelings are completely gut and are in no way quantitative.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

That's quite true. My feelings are completely gut and are in no way quantitative.

I get the thinking and if it works out as planned it's a huge advantage. I just wonder about what things football people are confident in some time. If you're confident enough that you can score at the end of the half and then start of the half, aren't you confident you can score whenever you want? And if you are confident you can score whenever you want, wouldn't you just want to start the game scoring?

 

[Alsacs]

Patriots lead the NFL the last 2 years in scoring in the last 2 minutes of the first half and on the opening possession of the 2nd half.

It is part of their strategy.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Giving up points on the 1st drive after the half, is much more deflating than doing so off the opening kick.

Seriously, It's the opening kick, come on.

Nothing has been established.

And as we've pointed out a trillion times...on the road, you WANT the ball out of the half.

Most of the crowd is still taking a leak or getting stocked up on beers.

Quietest time of the game for an away offense to work.

And there, it can be a momentum builder.

Do people who post here, watch football???

 

[All4SU]

Interesting Win Probability calculator:
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php

IMHO the team scoring first has a greater probability of winning the game. (Obviously, better teams score first more often. But even an underdog tea, scoring first, increases their probability of winning the game.)

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-odds-that-the-first-football-team-to-score-will-win-a-game

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Nothing has been established.

So why not establish what you want right at the beginning of the game?

I do think your point about being on the road and taking the ball after the half when the crowd is disengaged has some merit.

 

[KaiserUEO]

So why not establish what you want right at the beginning of the game?

I do think your point about being on the road and taking the ball after the half when the crowd is disengaged has some merit.

There's certainly some merit to scoring right away.

When Eli was at his gunslinging, high yardage, big play, INT throwing best, TC often wanted the ball and told his O "now go down and score" and they often did.

I prefer 2nd half for reason given, because even after scoring, there's so much game left and multiple momentum swings.