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Message: [QUOTE="OttoinGrotto, post: 1503888, member: 297"] You way over thought this. The question is, when you're down by one late, when do you pull your goalie in an attempt to draw even. You need that goal regardless of whether all of your players have an equal chance of scoring. That comes secondary to needing the goal. You're probably going to have your top scorers on the ice in that situation anyway, right? What does the point about players playing less at the end have to do with needing a goal to tie? I think you're introducing variables here that don't matter. You need a goal. Are your chances better getting that goal if you yank the goaltender at 2:30 left or with 1:00 left? Seems like you have better odds if you take that goalie out at 2:30. It's straightforward. [/QUOTE]