SWC75
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Every year at this time we have a debate about what the format for the FBS national championship playoff should be. Until 1968 it was just a vote based on regular season accomplishments. From that year until 1997, the top teams were dispersed among the bowls based primarily on contracts between the bowls and the conferences, followed again by a vote. Meanwhile, the NAIA had started a playoff for a championship for the smaller schools and in 1973 the NCAA started a playoff for the smaller schools that weren’t in NAIA, (Division 3), and for the mid-size schools that had no shot at the overall national championship, (Division 2). Some of those schools refused to move into division 2, wanting the prestige, (and the financial guarantees for playing the schools with the biggest stadiums), of being in Division 1. So, in 1978 the NCAA created Division 1AA for schools who wanted to be in Division 1 but weren’t really in the top level: they now had a championship they could play for. But most of these schools viewed it as a demotion and refused to budge from Division 1A even thought they had no chance for a championship there. Instead, schools from Division II flooded into 1AA, which gave them not only a shot at a championship but also at those guarantees since the powerhouses could schedule them and still say that they weren’t playing a “small college”. (At the same time both Division 3 and the NAIA lost schools to Division 2).
In 1998, the “Bowl Championship Series” was created to provide for a #1 vs. #2 match-up and to improve the match-ups for the other major bowls. It could have just been viewed as a #1 vs. #2 match-up with a chance for a slightly lower-rated team to move up to #1 in the polls if they were more impressive. But the #1 vs. #2 game was instead regarded as the 1A championship game. Division 1AA became known as ‘FBS’, ‘Football Bowl Subdivision’ and 1AA became ‘FCS’, meaning “Football Championship Subdivision’. This didn’t change the minds of the schools that clung to top-rung status: they didn’t move to FCS. In fact, more and more FCS schools have moved into FBS and, in doing so, have ended any potential for their teams to win championships. The rolls of FBS teams no include Louisiana Tech, (who won the first Division 2 championship in 1973), Central Michigan (who won the second in 1974), Southwest Texas State, (now simply Texas State, who won D2 in 1981 and 1982), Troy State, (now just Troy, who win in 1984 and 1987), Boise State, (the 1979 1AA champions), Georgia Southern, (the 1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1999 and 2000 champs), Marshall (1992, 1996), Massachusetts, (1998), Western Kentucky (2002), Appalachian State (2005, 2006, 2007). From 1958-1972 there were writers and coaches polls to establish the “national small college champion”. It was won in 1958 by Mississippi Southern, (now Southern Mississippi who also won in 1962), in 1959 by Bowling Green, in 1960 by Ohio University, in 1966, 1967 and 1968 by San Diego State and in 1970 by Arkansas State. That’s a total of 15 FBS schools who have won a total of 28 national championships who will never win them again because they insist on FBS status when the FBS playoff system has no path to the championship for them.
Since 2014 we’ve had a 4 team playoff consisting of the top four teams in a top 25 poll issued by a committee that decides these things behind closed doors. If I had my druthers Id’ have four polls: a writer’s poll, a coach’s poll, a computer poll for all the math systems, (including the ones that consider margin of victory) and a fans poll in which season ticket holders for Division 1 schools could vote using their PINS a their schools’ website and have those votes passed on to a central location for collating. Collation would be done on a 25 points for 1st place, 24 for second, 23 for third basis. Then the results of the four polls would be collated in the same manner to produce an overall ranking and the decisions would be based on that ranking.
Presently the NAIA has 94 football playing schools and runs a 16 team championship tournament. That’s 17.0% of their schools. NCAA Division 3 has 250 schools and runs a 32 team tournament (12.8%). NCAA Division 2 has 173 schools and a 28 team tournament (16.2%). FCS has 124 teams and runs a 24 team tournament (19.3%). FBS has 130 teams and runs a 4 team tournament, (3.1%). Exactly half of FBS consists of ‘power conference’ teams: the ACC, the SEC, the Big 10 (which has 14 teams), the Big 12 (which has 10 teams), the Pac 12 and Notre Dame, who thinks they are above joining a football conference but clearly competes in a power conference level. No non-power conference team has ever made a BCS title game or the playoff and when someone suggests they should, they get flamed by those who ask what their record would be in a power conference.
It’s a relevant point. If I had any druthers left after my suggestion about the polls, I’d use them to combine the NAIA, Division 3 and Division 2 into a new Division 3 consisting of 517 teams. I’d put the FCS teams together with the non-power conference teams into a new Division 2, which would consist of 189 teams. Division 1 would be the 65 power conference teams. I’d have an 8 team playoff in Division 1, a 16 team playoff in Division 2 and a 32 team playoff in Division 3. That would be enough to assure something basic: if you just keep beating the team in front of you, you’ll be the champion of your division. Any undefeated team would make a 32 team D3 playoff, a 16 team D2 playoff or an 8 team D1 playoff. Alas, we know from the history of these things that the schools aren’t going to realign themselves in such a logical fashion. So we need a playoff format that would still allow such a result. 16 in the NAIA, 32 in the current D3, 28 in D2 and 24 in FCS will do that. In fact, you probably don’t need that many. A four team playoff will virtually always suffice in FBS, (although we had 6 undefeated teams in 1973).
The problem is, not all national champions are undefeated. The very first writer’s poll champion in 1936 was Minnesota, who had lost to Northwestern, who also went 7-1. But the Wildcats who were #1 for the next three weeks until Notre Dame beat them. The Wildcats wound up #7. #2 LSU was undefeated except for a tie and so was #4 Alabama. #6 Santa Clara was 7-0 at the time of the last poll. They then lost to TCU but came back to beat LSU in the Sugar Bowl. They were probably the equivalent of a Boise State in that era. With the limited number of bowl games in that era, Alabama stayed home. There’s been a lot of years like that since. 19 teams have been consensus national champions with 1 loss. In 2007 LSU won it with 2 losses. In 1960 Minnesota had one loss when voted #1 after the regular season. They then sustained another loss in the Rose Bowl but still went into the books as #1 with those two losses as there was no poll after the bowls. In 1937and 1970 the champion had a tie and in 1990 there was a split championship between 11-0-1 Georgia Tech and 10-1-1 Colorado, who had won a game on a 5th down. In 1957 and 1974 undefeated teams on probation won the writer’s poll and teams that had been defeated won the coach’s poll. In 1977 the top six ranked teams were all 11-1.
Of the 93 teams that have been recognized by the writer’s coaches, BCS or playoff, 89 have won all their games or all but one at the time of their recognition. Of the other four, three had a loss and a tie and the tie would now be resolved in overtime. If that team didn’t win the game, they would not have been recognized as national champion. Thus it seems a potential national championship team is a team that has won all or all but one of their games. The next question, of course, is strength of schedule and that’s the wall the non-power conference teams keep hitting. Over the years that has bothered me. It seems strange that in basketball, we get excited over the “David vs. Goliath” games that produce exciting upsets but in football, non-power conference teams that suggest they should have a shot are treated with contempt, as if they were gate crashers. In a way they are, as they should probably be in FCS giving North Dakota State some competition. But the idea of divisions is to give everybody a national championship they could win and I don’t like a system that excludes anyone regardless of their accomplishments. (I don’t even like probation: I think discipline should be through fines, suspensions and banishments.) I also don’t like power conference teams with the same record as a team in the BCS title game or the playoff watching the other team play for the title on TV. Finally, I don’t like byes. I’m a 2, 4, 8, 16 man. All teams should have (and get to) play the same number of games to win the title.
I decided to chart out what a comprehensive playoff of the FBS title could look like as a 2 team playoff, a 4, 8 or 16 team playoff so we could give it “the look test” and see which makes the most sense. I decided to start the study in 1998, when the BCS started, since 22 years seems a big enough sample to look at. My 2 and 4 team playoffs are just the top teams in the BCS rankings. For the 8 team playoff I like the plan of giving automatic bids to the champions of Power 5 conferences, another to best of the non-power 5 teams and then filling out the field with the highest ranked at large teams. For the 16 team tournament, every conference champion would get automatic bids with the highest ranked at large teams filling out the field. In the case of ties, head to head results would be the first tie breaker, then the rankings. For 2007, when the 2 loss LSU team gets into the final, I decided to include two loss power conference teams among those who were “left out”. Finally, I decided that the Big East was a power conference until Miami and Virginia Tech left but not afterwards, (even though their BCS membership lasted until they became the AAC).
1998
Two teams: Tennessee 12-0 vs. Florida State 11-1
Left Out: Tulane 11-0, Arizona 11-1, Kansas State 11-1, Ohio State 10-1, UCLA 10-1, Wisconsin 10-1
Four teams: Tennessee 12-0 vs. Ohio State 10-1; Florida State 11-1 vs. Kansas State 11-1
Left Out: Tulane 11-0, Arizona 11-1, UCLA 10-1, Wisconsin 10-1
Eight teams: Tennessee 12-0 vs. Syracuse 8-3; Florida State 11-1 vs. Tulane 11-0; Kansas State 11-1 vs. Texas A&M 11-2; Ohio State 10-1 vs. UCLA 10-1
Left Out: Arizona 11-1, Wisconsin 10-1
Sixteen teams: Tennessee 12-0 vs. Idaho 8-3; Florida State 11-1 vs. Marshall 11-1; Kansas State 11-1 vs. Air Force 11-1; Ohio State 10-1 vs. Syracuse 8-3; UCLA 10-1 vs. Virginia 9-2; Texas A&M 11-2 vs. Nebraska 9-3; Arizona 11-1 vs. Tulane 11-0; Florida 9-2 vs. Wisconsin 10-1
Left Out: None
1999
Two teams: Florida State 11-0 vs. Virginia Tech 11-0
Left Out: Marshall 12-0, Kansas State 10-1, Nebraska 11-1
Four teams: Florida State 11-0 vs. Wisconsin 9-2; Virginia Tech 11-0 vs. Nebraska 11-1
Left Out: Kansas State 10-1; Marshall 12-0
Eight teams: Florida State 11-0 vs. Stanford 8-3; Virginia Tech 11-0 vs. Marshall 12-0; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Wisconsin 9-2; Alabama 10-2 vs. Tennessee 9-2
Left Out: Kansas State 10-1
Sixteen teams: Florida State 11-0 vs. Fresno State 8-4; Virginia Tech 11-0 vs. Brigham Young 8-3; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Boise State 9-3; Alabama 10-2 vs. Southern Mississippi 9-2; Tennessee 9-2 vs. Stanford 8-3; Kansas State 10-1 vs. Marshall 12-0; Wisconsin 9-2 vs. Penn State 9-3; Michigan 9-2 vs. Florida 9-3
Left Out: None
2000
Two teams: Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Florida State 11-1
Left Out: U of Miami 10-1; Oregon State 10-1; Texas Christian 10-1; Toledo 10-1, Washington 10-1; Virginia Tech 10-1
Four teams: Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Washington 10-1; Florida State 11-1 vs. U of Miami 10-1
Left Out: Oregon State 10-1; Texas Christian 10-1; Toledo 10-1 Virginia Tech 10-1
Eight teams: Oklahoma 12-0 vs Texas Christian 10-1; Florida State 11-1 vs. Purdue 8-3; U of Miami 10-1 vs. Florida 10-2; Washington 10-1 vs. Virginia Tech 10-1
Left Out: Oregon State 10-1; Toledo 10-1
Sixteen teams: Oklahoma 12-0 vs Marshall 8-5; Florida State 11-1 vs. Louisville 9-3; U of Miami 10-1 vs. Boise State 10-2; Washington 10-1 vs. Colorado State 10-2; Virginia Tech 10-1 vs. Texas Christian 10-1; Oregon State 10-1 vs. Purdue 8-3; Florida 10-2 vs. Oregon 9-2; Nebraska 9-2 vs. Kansas State 10-3
Left Out: Toledo 10-1
2001
Two teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Nebraska 11-1
Left Out: Illinois 10-1; Maryland 10-1; Oregon 10-1
Four teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Oregon 10-1; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Colorado 10-2
Left Out: Illinois 10-1; Maryland 10-1
Eight teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Brigham Young 12-1; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Louisiana State 9-3; Colorado 10-2 vs. Maryland 10-1; Oregon 10-1 vs. Illinois 10-1
Left Out: None
Sixteen teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Middle Tennessee State 8-3; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Louisiana Tech 7-4; Colorado 10-2 vs. Toledo 9-2; Oregon 10-1 vs. Louisville 10-2; Florida 9-2 vs. Brigham Young 12-1; Tennessee 10-2 vs. Louisiana State 9-3; Texas 10-2 vs. Maryland 10-1; Illinois 10-1 vs. Stanford 9-2
Left Out: None
2002
Two teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Ohio State 13-0
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Georgia 12-1, Iowa 11-1
Four teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Southern California 10-2; Ohio State 13-0 vs. Georgia 12-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Iowa 11-1
Eight teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Boise State 11-1 Ohio State 13-0 vs. Florida State 9-4; Georgia 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 11-2; Southern California 10-2 vs. Washington State 10-2
Left Out: Iowa 11-1
Sixteen teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Cincinnati 7-6; Ohio State 13-0 vs. North Texas State 7-5; Georgia 12-1 vs. Marshall 11-2; Southern California 10-2 vs. Colorado State 10-3; Iowa 11-1 vs. Boise State 11-1; Washington State 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-4; Oklahoma 11-2 vs. Texas 10-2; Kansas State 10-2 vs. Notre Dame 10-2
Left Out: None
2003
Two teams: Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Louisiana State 12-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-1, Miami U. 12-1, Southern California 11-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Four teams: Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Michigan 10-2; Louisiana State 12-1 vs. Southern California 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-1, Miami U. 12-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Eight teams: Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Miami U. 12-1; Louisiana State 12-1 vs. Kansas State 11-3; Southern California 11-1 vs. U of Miami 10-2; Michigan 10-2 vs. Florida State 10-2
Left Out: Boise State 12-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Sixteen teams: Oklahoma 12-1 vs. North Texas State 9-3; Louisiana State 12-1 vs. Southern Mississippi 9-3; Southern California 11-1 vs. Utah 9-2; Michigan 10-2 vs. Boise State 12-1; Ohio State 10-2 vs. Miami U. 11-1; Texas 10-2 vs. Florida State 10-2; Tennessee 10-2 vs. Kansas State 11-3; Georgia 10-3 vs. U of Miami 10-2
Left Out: Texas Christian 11-1
2004
Two teams: Southern California 12-0 vs. Oklahoma 12-0
Left Out: Auburn 12-0, Boise State 11-0, Utah 12-0, California 11-1, Louisville 10-1, Texas 10-1
Four teams: Southern California 12-0 vs. Texas 10-1, Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Auburn 12-0
Left Out: Boise State 11-0, Utah 12-0, California 11-1, Louisville 10-1
Eight teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Michigan 9-2, Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Virginia Tech 10-2, Auburn 12-0 vs. Utah 12-0, Texas 10-1 vs. California 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-0, Louisville 10-1
Sixteen teams: Southern California 12-0 vs North Texas State 7-4, Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Toledo 9-3, Auburn 12-0 vs. Pittsburgh 8-3, Texas 10-1 vs. Michigan 9-2, California 11-1 vs. Iowa 9-2, Utah 12-0 vs. Louisiana State 9-2, Georgia 9-2 vs. Louisville 10-1, Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Boise State 11-0
Left Out: None
2005
Two teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Texas 12-0
Left Out: Oregon, 10-1, Penn State 10-1, Texas Christian 10-1, West Virginia 11-1
Four teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Ohio State 9-2, Texas 12-0 vs. Penn State 10-1
Left Out: Oregon 10-1, Texas Christian 10-1, West Virginia 11-1
Eight teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Florida State 8-4, Texas 12-0 vs. West Virginia 11-1, Penn State 10-1 vs. Georgia 10-2, Ohio State 9-2 vs. Oregon 10-1
Left Out: Texas Christian 10-1
Sixteen teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Arkansas State 6-5, Texas 12-0 vs. Akron 7-5, Penn State 10-1 vs. Tulsa 8-4, Ohio State 9-2 vs. Boise State 9-3, Oregon 10-1 vs. Florida State 8-4, Notre Dame 9-2 vs. Texas Christian 10-1, Georgia 10-2 vs. U of Miami 9-2
Left Out: none
2006
Two teams: Ohio State 12-0 vs. Florida 10-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Louisville 11-1, Michigan 11-1, Wisconsin 11-1
Four teams: Ohio State 12-0 vs. Louisiana State 9-2, Florida 10-1 vs. Michigan 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Louisville 11-1, Wisconsin 11-1
Eight teams: Ohio State 12-0 vs. Wake Forest 11-2, Florida 10-1 vs. Oklahoma 11-2, Michigan 11-1 vs. Louisville 11-1, Louisiana State 9-2 vs. Southern California 10-2
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Wisconsin 11-1
Sixteen teams: Ohio State 12-0 vs. Troy 7-5, Florida 10-1 vs. Central Michigan 9-4, Michigan 11-1 vs. Houston 10-3, Louisiana State 9-2 vs. Brigham Young 10-2, Southern California 10-2 vs. Wake Forest 11-2, Louisville 11-1 vs. Notre Dame 10-2, Wisconsin 11-1 vs. Oklahoma 11-2, Boise State 12-0 vs. Auburn 9-2
Left Out: None
2007
Two teams: Ohio State 11-1 vs. Louisiana State 11-2
Left Out: Hawaii 12-0, Kansas 11-1, Arizona State 10-2, Brigham Young 10-2, Georgia 10-2, Missouri 11-2, Oklahoma 11-2, Southern California 10-2, Virginia Tech 11-2, West Virginia 10-2
Four teams: Ohio State 11-1 vs. Oklahoma 11-2, Louisiana State 11-2 vs. Virginia Tech 11-2
Left Out: Hawaii 12-0, Kansas 11-1, Arizona State 10-2, Brigham Young 10-2, Georgia 10-2, Missouri 11-2, Southern California 10-2, West Virginia 10-2
Eight teams: Ohio State 11-1 vs. West Virginia 10-2, Louisiana State 11-2 vs. Southern California 11-2, Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Missouri 11-2, Oklahoma 11-2 vs. Georgia 10-2
Left Out: Hawaii 12-0, Kansas 11-1, Arizona State 10-2, Brigham Young 10-2
Sixteen teams: Ohio State 11-1 vs. Florida Atlantic 7-5, Louisiana State 11-2 vs. Central Michigan 8-5, Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Central Florida 10-3, Oklahoma 11-2 vs. Brigham Young 10-2, Georgia 10-2 vs. Hawaii 12-0, Missouri 11-2 vs. Florida 9-3, Southern California 11-2 vs. Arizona State 10-2, Kansas 11-1 vs. West Virginia 10-2
Left Out: none
2008
Two teams: Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 12-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Utah 12-0, Alabama 12-1, Ball State 12-1, Penn State 11-1, Southern California 11-1, Texas 11-1, Texas Tech 11-1
Four teams: Florida 12-1 vs. Alabama 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Texas 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Utah 12-0, Ball State 12-1, Penn State 11-1, Southern California 11-1, Texas Tech 11-1
Eight teams: Florida 12-1 vs. Virginia Tech 9-4, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Utah 12-0, Texas 11-1 vs. Penn State 11-1, Alabama 12-1 vs. Southern California 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Ball State 12-1, Texas Tech 11-1
Sixteen teams: Florida 12-1 vs. Buffalo 8-5, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Troy 8-4, Texas 11-1 vs. East Carolina 9-4, Alabama 12-1 vs. Virginia Tech 9-4, Southern California 11-1 vs. Cincinnati 11-2, Penn State 11-1 vs. Texas Christian 10-2, Utah 12-0 vs. Ohio State 10-2, Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Boise State 12-0
Left Out: Ball State 12-1
2009
Two teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Texas 13-0
Left Out: Boise State 13-0, Cincinnati 12-0, Texas Christian 12-0, Florida 12-1
Four teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Texas Christian 12-0, Texas 13-0 vs. Cincinnati 12-0
Left Out: Boise State 13-0, Florida 12-1
Eight teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Iowa 10-2, Texas 13-0 vs. Georgia Tech 11-2, Cincinnati 12-0 vs. Ohio State 10-2, Florida 12-1 vs. Oregon 10-2
Left Out: Boise State 13-0, Texas Christian 12-0 (TCU was ranked #4 but a Mountain West team and the #1 Mid Major was Cincinnati so TCU drops out)
Sixteen teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. East Carolina 9-4, Texas 13-0 vs. Troy 9-3, Cincinnati 12-0 vs. Central Michigan 11-2, Texas Christian 12-0 vs. Penn State 10-2, Florida 12-1 vs. Louisiana State 9-3, Boise State 13-0 vs. Virginia Tech 9-3, Oregon 10-2 vs. Iowa 10-2, Ohio State 10-2 vs. Georgia Tech 11-2
Left Out: None
2010
Two teams: Auburn 13-0 vs. Oregon 12-0
Left Out: Texas Christian 12-0, Boise State 11-1, Michigan State 11-1, Nevada-Reno 11-1, Ohio State 11-1, Stanford 11-1, Wisconsin 11-1
Four teams: Auburn 13-0 vs. Wisconsin 11-1, Oregon 12-0 vs. Texas Christian 12-0
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Michigan State 11-1, Nevada-Reno 11-1, Ohio State 11-1, Stanford 11-1
Eight teams: Auburn 13-0 vs. Virginia Tech 11-2, Oregon 12-0 vs. Oklahoma 11-2, Texas Christian 12-0 vs. Ohio State 11-1, Wisconsin 11-1 vs. Stanford 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Michigan State 11-1, Nevada-Reno 11-1
Sixteen teams: Auburn 13-0 vs. Troy 7-5, Oregon 12-0 vs. Connecticut 8-4, Texas Christian 12-0 vs. Miami University 9-4, Wisconsin 11-1 vs. Central Florida 10-3, Stanford 11-1 vs. Virginia Tech 11-2, Ohio State 11-1 vs. Louisiana State 10-2, Michigan State 11-1 vs. Boise State 10-1, Arkansas 10-2 vs. Oklahoma 11-2
Left Out: Nevada-Reno 12-1
Note: Ohio State was forced to vacate their victories but that decision was made the following July so they could have been in these tournaments.)
2011
Two teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Alabama 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Houston 12-1, Oklahoma State 11-1, Stanford 11-1
Four teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Stanford 11-1, Alabama 11-1 vs. Oklahoma State 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Houston 12-1
Eight teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Oregon 11-2, Alabama 11-1 vs. Wisconsin 11-2, Oklahoma State 11-1 vs. Clemson 10-3, Stanford 11-1 vs. Texas Christian 10-2
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Houston 12-1
Sixteen teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Louisiana Tech 8-4, Alabama 11-1 vs. Northern Illinois 10-3, Oklahoma State 11-1 vs. Arkansas State 10-2, Stanford 11-1 vs. West Virginia 9-3, Oregon 11-2 vs. Southern Mississippi 11-2, Arkansas 10-2 vs. Texas Christian 10-2, Boise State 11-1 vs. Clemson 10-3, Kansas State 10-2 vs. Wisconsin 11-2
Left Out: Houston 12-1
2012
Two teams: Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Alabama 12-1
Left Out: Florida 11-1, Kansas State 11-1, Northern Illinois 12-1, Oregon 11-1 (Ohio State 12-0 was on probation)
Four teams: Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Oregon 11-1, Alabama 12-1 vs. Florida 11-1
Left Out: Kansas State 11-1, Northern Illinois 12-1
Eight teams: Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Wisconsin 8-5, Alabama 12-1 vs. Northern Illinois 12-1, Florida 11-1 vs. Florida State 11-2, Kansas State 11-1 vs. Stanford 11-2
Left Out: Oregon 11-1 (drops out because Notre Dame and Florida took the two wild card spots)
Sixteen teams: Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Arkansas State 9-3, Alabama 12-1 vs. Tulsa 10-3, Florida 11-1 vs. Wisconsin 8-5, Oregon 11-1 vs. Utah State 10-2, Kansas State 11-1 vs. Louisville 10-2, Stanford 11-2 vs. Boise State 10-2, Georgia 11-2 vs. Northern Illinois 12-1, Louisiana State 10-2 vs. Florida State 11-2
Left Out: none
2013
Two teams: Florida State 13-0 vs. Auburn 12-1
Left Out: Alabama 11-1, Baylor 12-1, Central Florida 11-1, Fresno State 11-1, Louisville 12-1, Michigan State 12-1, Northern Illinois 12-1, Ohio State 12-1
Four teams: Florida State 13-0 vs. Michigan State 12-1, Auburn 12-1 vs. Alabama 11-1
Left Out: Baylor 12-1, Central Florida 11-1, Fresno State 11-1, Louisville 12-1, Northern Illinois 12-1, Ohio State 12-1
Eight teams: Florida State 13-0 vs. Central Florida 11-1, Auburn 12-1 vs. Ohio State 12-1, Alabama 11-1 vs. Baylor 12-1, Michigan State 12-1 vs. Stanford 11-2
Left Out: Central Florida 11-1, Fresno State 11-1, Louisville 12-1, Northern Illinois 12-1
Sixteen teams: Florida State 13-0 vs. Arkansas State 7-5, Auburn 12-1 vs. Bowling Green 10-3, Alabama 11-1 vs. Rice 10-3, Michigan State 12-1 vs. Fresno State 11-1, Stanford 11-2 vs. Central Florida 11-1, Baylor 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 10-2, Ohio State 12-1 vs. Oregon 10-2, Missouri 11-2 vs. South Carolina 10-2
Left Out: Louisville 12-1, Northern Illinois 12-1
2014
Two teams: Alabama 12-1 vs. Oregon 12-1
Left Out: Florida State 13-0, Baylor 11-1, Marshall 12-1, Ohio State 12-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Four teams: Alabama 12-1 vs. Ohio State 12-1, Oregon 12-1 vs. Florida State 13-0
Left Out: Baylor 11-1, Marshall 12-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Eight teams: Alabama 12-1 vs. Baylor 11-1, Oregon 12-1 vs. Texas Christian 11-1, Florida State 13-0 vs. Mississippi State 10-2, Ohio State 12-1 vs. Memphis 9-3
Left Out: Marshall 12-1
Sixteen teams: Alabama 12-1 vs. Georgia Southern 9-3, Oregon 12-1 vs. Northern Illinois 11-2, Florida State 13-0 vs. Marshall 12-1, Ohio State 12-1 vs. Memphis 9-3, Baylor 11-1 vs. Boise State 11-2, Texas Christian 11-1 vs. Kansas State 9-3, Mississippi State 10-2 vs. Arizona 10-3, Michigan State 10-2 vs. Mississippi 9-3
Left Out: None
2015
Two teams: Clemson 13-0 vs. Alabama 12-1
Left Out: Houston 12-1, Iowa 12-1, Michigan State 12-1, Ohio State 11-1, Oklahoma 11-1
Four teams: Clemson 13-0 vs. Oklahoma 11-1, Alabama 12-1 vs. Michigan State 12-1
Left Out: Houston 12-1, Iowa 12-1, Ohio State 11-1
Eight teams: Clemson 13-0 vs. Houston 12-1, Alabama 12-1 vs. Ohio State 11-1, Michigan State 12-1 vs. Stanford 11-2, Oklahoma 11-1 vs. Iowa 12-1
Left Out: Houston 12-1
Sixteen teams: Clemson 13-0 vs. Arkansas State 9-3, Alabama 12-1 vs. Bowling Green 10-3, Michigan State 12-1 vs. San Diego State 10-3, Oklahoma 11-1 vs. Western Kentucky 11-2, Iowa 12-1 vs. Houston 12-1, Stanford 11-2 vs. Texas Christian 10-2, Ohio State 11-1 vs. North Carolina 11-2, Notre Dame 10-2 vs. Florida State 10-2
Left Out: None
2016
Two teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Clemson 12-1
Left Out: Western Michigan 13-0, Ohio State 11-1, Washington 12-1
Four teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Washington 12-1, Clemson 12-1 vs. Ohio State 11-1
Left Out: Western Michigan 13-0
Eight teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Western Michigan 13-0, Clemson 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 10-2, Ohio State 11-1 vs. Michigan 10-2, Washington 12-1 vs. Penn State 11-2
Left Out: None
Sixteen teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Appalachian State 9-3, Clemson 12-1 vs. Western Kentucky 10-3, Ohio State 11-1 vs. Temple 10-3, Washington 12-1 vs. San Diego State 11-3, Penn State 11-2 vs. Western Michigan 13-0, Michigan 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3, Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Colorado 10-3, Wisconsin 10-3 vs. Southern California 9-3
Left Out: None
2017
Two teams: Clemson 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 12-1
Left Out: Central Florida 12-0, Alabama 11-1, Georgia 12-1, Wisconsin 12-1
Four teams: Clemson 12-1 vs. Alabama 11-1, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Georgia 12-1
Left Out: Central Florida 12-0, Wisconsin 12-1
Eight teams: Clemson 12-1 vs. Central Florida 12-0, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Southern California 11-2, Georgia 12-1 vs. Wisconsin 12-1, Alabama 11-1 vs. Ohio State 11-2
Left Out: None
Sixteen teams: Clemson 12-1 vs. Florida Atlantic 10-3, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Troy 10-2, Georgia 12-1 vs. Toledo 11-2, Alabama 11-1 vs. Boise State 10-3, Ohio State 11-2 vs. Central Florida 12-0, Wisconsin 12-1 vs. Washington 10-2, Auburn 10-3 vs. U of Miami 10-2, Southern California 11-2 vs.. Penn State 10-2
Left Out: None
2018
Two teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Clemson 13-0
Left Out: Central Florida 12-0, Notre Dame 12-0, Ohio State 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1
Four teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Oklahoma 12-1, Clemson 13-0 vs. Notre Dame 12-0
Left Out: Central Florida 12-0, Ohio State 12-1
Eight teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Washington 10-3, Clemson 13-0 vs. Central Florida 12-0, Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Ohio State 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Georgia 10-2
Left Out: None
Sixteen teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Northern Illinois 8-5, Clemson 13-0 vs. Alabama-Birmingham 10-3, Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Appalachian State 10-2, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Fresno State 11-2, Georgia 10-2 vs. Penn State 9-3, Ohio State 12-1 vs. Louisiana State 9-3, Michigan 10-2 vs. Florida 9-3, Central Florida 12-0 vs. Washington 10-3
Left Out: none
2019
Two teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Ohio State 13-0
Left Out: Clemson 13-0, Appalachian State 12-1, Boise State 12-1, Memphis 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1
Four teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Oklahoma 12-1, Ohio State 13-0 vs. Clemson 13-0
Left Out: Appalachian State 12-1, Boise State 12-1, Memphis 12-1
Eight teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Memphis 12-1, Ohio State 13-0 vs. Baylor 11-2, Clemson 13-0 vs. Oregon 11-2, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Georgia 11-2
Left Out: Appalachian State 12-1, Boise State 12-1
Sixteen teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Miami University 8-5, Ohio State 13-0 vs. Florida Atlantic 10-3, Clemson 13-0 vs. Appalachian State 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Boise State 12-1, Georgia vs. Memphis 12-1, Oregon 11-2 vs. Utah 11-2, Baylor 11-2 vs. Penn State 10-2, Wisconsin 10-3 vs. Florida 10-2
Left Out: None
The final tally of “Left Out” teams is this:
With a two team playoff, 104 FBS schools with ‘national championship’ records would be left out of the playoffs in 22 years. 67 of them would be ‘power conference’ teams.
With a four team playoff, 57 FBS schools with ‘national championship’ records would be left out of the playoffs in 22 years. 33 of them would be ‘power conference’ teams.
With an eight team playoff, 36 FBS schools with ‘national championship’ records would be left out of the playoffs in 22 years. 11 of them would be ‘power conference’ teams.
With a sixteen team playoff, 8 FBS schools with ‘national championship’ records would be left out of the playoffs in 22 years. None of them would be ‘power conference’ teams.
It’s completely obvious to me that the 2 team playoff was not only inadequate but absurdly inadequate. The 4 team playoff is an improvement but a stepping stone to where we need to be. I could live with an 8 team playoffs but it’s “Left Out: None” that really passes the look test for me. The 16 team playoff achieves that 16 times in 22 years and there are no power conference teams excluded in the other 6 years. The 8 team playoff does that 4 times and 11 power conference teams get left out.
All these playoffs are perfectly doable, as the playoffs in the other divisions show. I’d prefer to see the games leading to the championship game to be played in December and the title game to be in one of the top bowls on an alternating annual basis. The teams that didn’t make the title game could still go to other bowls. We know the playoffs won’t kill the bowls because they keep adding to the list of bowls despite going to the BCS championship game and then a playoff. With the preliminary rounds in December the bowls would be totally unaffected.
The “it will ruin the regular season” argument is bogus. Firstly other things besides the national championship make a game matter. Our basketball team just had a “must win” over Georgia Tech on December 7th and they will now play a rivalry game with Georgetown. Those games are unlikely to have any impact on the national championship but they certainly mattered. If, indeed the regular season was a “single elimination tournament for the national championship”, (which is obviously isn’t), and that’s all that mattered, that would mean that once you lost, the rest of your schedule would become meaningless. If you looked at all the results in a season and determined how many games had a direct impact on who plays in a two team playoff, then a 4 team playoff, then an 8 team playoff, then a 16 team playoff, you would find that more games impact a 4 team playoff than a 2 team playoff. More teams impact an 8 team playoff than a 4 team playoff. And more games impact a 16 team playoff than an 8 team playoff. Ruining the regular season is an issue for 30 team pro leagues with 16 team playoffs, not for a 130 team college division considering an 8 or even 16 team playoff rather than a four team playoff.
Pro teams are made up 25-30 year olds that have played together for years. In the NFL they get four exhibition games before the season beginning. A 7-9 team has made the playoffs and a 9-7 team has won the Super Bowl. But in college, where teams are made up of 18-22 year olds with kaleidoscopic line-ups where you can lose half your starting line-up each year, a team with national title ambitions can lose them in a loss in August. Is that fair? Surely it’s more appropriate to allow teams to grow and develop over the course of the season and have a chance to win their way into a playoff with an automatic bid if they can win their conference or one of several at large bids.
So I conclude it’s rather have a 16 team playoff with automatic bids to all conferences and preliminary rounds in December is the best way to go. Others may draw other conclusions. At least we’ve all seen what a playoff would look like at each level and we can each decide what passes the ‘look test’.
In 1998, the “Bowl Championship Series” was created to provide for a #1 vs. #2 match-up and to improve the match-ups for the other major bowls. It could have just been viewed as a #1 vs. #2 match-up with a chance for a slightly lower-rated team to move up to #1 in the polls if they were more impressive. But the #1 vs. #2 game was instead regarded as the 1A championship game. Division 1AA became known as ‘FBS’, ‘Football Bowl Subdivision’ and 1AA became ‘FCS’, meaning “Football Championship Subdivision’. This didn’t change the minds of the schools that clung to top-rung status: they didn’t move to FCS. In fact, more and more FCS schools have moved into FBS and, in doing so, have ended any potential for their teams to win championships. The rolls of FBS teams no include Louisiana Tech, (who won the first Division 2 championship in 1973), Central Michigan (who won the second in 1974), Southwest Texas State, (now simply Texas State, who won D2 in 1981 and 1982), Troy State, (now just Troy, who win in 1984 and 1987), Boise State, (the 1979 1AA champions), Georgia Southern, (the 1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1999 and 2000 champs), Marshall (1992, 1996), Massachusetts, (1998), Western Kentucky (2002), Appalachian State (2005, 2006, 2007). From 1958-1972 there were writers and coaches polls to establish the “national small college champion”. It was won in 1958 by Mississippi Southern, (now Southern Mississippi who also won in 1962), in 1959 by Bowling Green, in 1960 by Ohio University, in 1966, 1967 and 1968 by San Diego State and in 1970 by Arkansas State. That’s a total of 15 FBS schools who have won a total of 28 national championships who will never win them again because they insist on FBS status when the FBS playoff system has no path to the championship for them.
Since 2014 we’ve had a 4 team playoff consisting of the top four teams in a top 25 poll issued by a committee that decides these things behind closed doors. If I had my druthers Id’ have four polls: a writer’s poll, a coach’s poll, a computer poll for all the math systems, (including the ones that consider margin of victory) and a fans poll in which season ticket holders for Division 1 schools could vote using their PINS a their schools’ website and have those votes passed on to a central location for collating. Collation would be done on a 25 points for 1st place, 24 for second, 23 for third basis. Then the results of the four polls would be collated in the same manner to produce an overall ranking and the decisions would be based on that ranking.
Presently the NAIA has 94 football playing schools and runs a 16 team championship tournament. That’s 17.0% of their schools. NCAA Division 3 has 250 schools and runs a 32 team tournament (12.8%). NCAA Division 2 has 173 schools and a 28 team tournament (16.2%). FCS has 124 teams and runs a 24 team tournament (19.3%). FBS has 130 teams and runs a 4 team tournament, (3.1%). Exactly half of FBS consists of ‘power conference’ teams: the ACC, the SEC, the Big 10 (which has 14 teams), the Big 12 (which has 10 teams), the Pac 12 and Notre Dame, who thinks they are above joining a football conference but clearly competes in a power conference level. No non-power conference team has ever made a BCS title game or the playoff and when someone suggests they should, they get flamed by those who ask what their record would be in a power conference.
It’s a relevant point. If I had any druthers left after my suggestion about the polls, I’d use them to combine the NAIA, Division 3 and Division 2 into a new Division 3 consisting of 517 teams. I’d put the FCS teams together with the non-power conference teams into a new Division 2, which would consist of 189 teams. Division 1 would be the 65 power conference teams. I’d have an 8 team playoff in Division 1, a 16 team playoff in Division 2 and a 32 team playoff in Division 3. That would be enough to assure something basic: if you just keep beating the team in front of you, you’ll be the champion of your division. Any undefeated team would make a 32 team D3 playoff, a 16 team D2 playoff or an 8 team D1 playoff. Alas, we know from the history of these things that the schools aren’t going to realign themselves in such a logical fashion. So we need a playoff format that would still allow such a result. 16 in the NAIA, 32 in the current D3, 28 in D2 and 24 in FCS will do that. In fact, you probably don’t need that many. A four team playoff will virtually always suffice in FBS, (although we had 6 undefeated teams in 1973).
The problem is, not all national champions are undefeated. The very first writer’s poll champion in 1936 was Minnesota, who had lost to Northwestern, who also went 7-1. But the Wildcats who were #1 for the next three weeks until Notre Dame beat them. The Wildcats wound up #7. #2 LSU was undefeated except for a tie and so was #4 Alabama. #6 Santa Clara was 7-0 at the time of the last poll. They then lost to TCU but came back to beat LSU in the Sugar Bowl. They were probably the equivalent of a Boise State in that era. With the limited number of bowl games in that era, Alabama stayed home. There’s been a lot of years like that since. 19 teams have been consensus national champions with 1 loss. In 2007 LSU won it with 2 losses. In 1960 Minnesota had one loss when voted #1 after the regular season. They then sustained another loss in the Rose Bowl but still went into the books as #1 with those two losses as there was no poll after the bowls. In 1937and 1970 the champion had a tie and in 1990 there was a split championship between 11-0-1 Georgia Tech and 10-1-1 Colorado, who had won a game on a 5th down. In 1957 and 1974 undefeated teams on probation won the writer’s poll and teams that had been defeated won the coach’s poll. In 1977 the top six ranked teams were all 11-1.
Of the 93 teams that have been recognized by the writer’s coaches, BCS or playoff, 89 have won all their games or all but one at the time of their recognition. Of the other four, three had a loss and a tie and the tie would now be resolved in overtime. If that team didn’t win the game, they would not have been recognized as national champion. Thus it seems a potential national championship team is a team that has won all or all but one of their games. The next question, of course, is strength of schedule and that’s the wall the non-power conference teams keep hitting. Over the years that has bothered me. It seems strange that in basketball, we get excited over the “David vs. Goliath” games that produce exciting upsets but in football, non-power conference teams that suggest they should have a shot are treated with contempt, as if they were gate crashers. In a way they are, as they should probably be in FCS giving North Dakota State some competition. But the idea of divisions is to give everybody a national championship they could win and I don’t like a system that excludes anyone regardless of their accomplishments. (I don’t even like probation: I think discipline should be through fines, suspensions and banishments.) I also don’t like power conference teams with the same record as a team in the BCS title game or the playoff watching the other team play for the title on TV. Finally, I don’t like byes. I’m a 2, 4, 8, 16 man. All teams should have (and get to) play the same number of games to win the title.
I decided to chart out what a comprehensive playoff of the FBS title could look like as a 2 team playoff, a 4, 8 or 16 team playoff so we could give it “the look test” and see which makes the most sense. I decided to start the study in 1998, when the BCS started, since 22 years seems a big enough sample to look at. My 2 and 4 team playoffs are just the top teams in the BCS rankings. For the 8 team playoff I like the plan of giving automatic bids to the champions of Power 5 conferences, another to best of the non-power 5 teams and then filling out the field with the highest ranked at large teams. For the 16 team tournament, every conference champion would get automatic bids with the highest ranked at large teams filling out the field. In the case of ties, head to head results would be the first tie breaker, then the rankings. For 2007, when the 2 loss LSU team gets into the final, I decided to include two loss power conference teams among those who were “left out”. Finally, I decided that the Big East was a power conference until Miami and Virginia Tech left but not afterwards, (even though their BCS membership lasted until they became the AAC).
1998
Two teams: Tennessee 12-0 vs. Florida State 11-1
Left Out: Tulane 11-0, Arizona 11-1, Kansas State 11-1, Ohio State 10-1, UCLA 10-1, Wisconsin 10-1
Four teams: Tennessee 12-0 vs. Ohio State 10-1; Florida State 11-1 vs. Kansas State 11-1
Left Out: Tulane 11-0, Arizona 11-1, UCLA 10-1, Wisconsin 10-1
Eight teams: Tennessee 12-0 vs. Syracuse 8-3; Florida State 11-1 vs. Tulane 11-0; Kansas State 11-1 vs. Texas A&M 11-2; Ohio State 10-1 vs. UCLA 10-1
Left Out: Arizona 11-1, Wisconsin 10-1
Sixteen teams: Tennessee 12-0 vs. Idaho 8-3; Florida State 11-1 vs. Marshall 11-1; Kansas State 11-1 vs. Air Force 11-1; Ohio State 10-1 vs. Syracuse 8-3; UCLA 10-1 vs. Virginia 9-2; Texas A&M 11-2 vs. Nebraska 9-3; Arizona 11-1 vs. Tulane 11-0; Florida 9-2 vs. Wisconsin 10-1
Left Out: None
1999
Two teams: Florida State 11-0 vs. Virginia Tech 11-0
Left Out: Marshall 12-0, Kansas State 10-1, Nebraska 11-1
Four teams: Florida State 11-0 vs. Wisconsin 9-2; Virginia Tech 11-0 vs. Nebraska 11-1
Left Out: Kansas State 10-1; Marshall 12-0
Eight teams: Florida State 11-0 vs. Stanford 8-3; Virginia Tech 11-0 vs. Marshall 12-0; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Wisconsin 9-2; Alabama 10-2 vs. Tennessee 9-2
Left Out: Kansas State 10-1
Sixteen teams: Florida State 11-0 vs. Fresno State 8-4; Virginia Tech 11-0 vs. Brigham Young 8-3; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Boise State 9-3; Alabama 10-2 vs. Southern Mississippi 9-2; Tennessee 9-2 vs. Stanford 8-3; Kansas State 10-1 vs. Marshall 12-0; Wisconsin 9-2 vs. Penn State 9-3; Michigan 9-2 vs. Florida 9-3
Left Out: None
2000
Two teams: Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Florida State 11-1
Left Out: U of Miami 10-1; Oregon State 10-1; Texas Christian 10-1; Toledo 10-1, Washington 10-1; Virginia Tech 10-1
Four teams: Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Washington 10-1; Florida State 11-1 vs. U of Miami 10-1
Left Out: Oregon State 10-1; Texas Christian 10-1; Toledo 10-1 Virginia Tech 10-1
Eight teams: Oklahoma 12-0 vs Texas Christian 10-1; Florida State 11-1 vs. Purdue 8-3; U of Miami 10-1 vs. Florida 10-2; Washington 10-1 vs. Virginia Tech 10-1
Left Out: Oregon State 10-1; Toledo 10-1
Sixteen teams: Oklahoma 12-0 vs Marshall 8-5; Florida State 11-1 vs. Louisville 9-3; U of Miami 10-1 vs. Boise State 10-2; Washington 10-1 vs. Colorado State 10-2; Virginia Tech 10-1 vs. Texas Christian 10-1; Oregon State 10-1 vs. Purdue 8-3; Florida 10-2 vs. Oregon 9-2; Nebraska 9-2 vs. Kansas State 10-3
Left Out: Toledo 10-1
2001
Two teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Nebraska 11-1
Left Out: Illinois 10-1; Maryland 10-1; Oregon 10-1
Four teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Oregon 10-1; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Colorado 10-2
Left Out: Illinois 10-1; Maryland 10-1
Eight teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Brigham Young 12-1; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Louisiana State 9-3; Colorado 10-2 vs. Maryland 10-1; Oregon 10-1 vs. Illinois 10-1
Left Out: None
Sixteen teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Middle Tennessee State 8-3; Nebraska 11-1 vs. Louisiana Tech 7-4; Colorado 10-2 vs. Toledo 9-2; Oregon 10-1 vs. Louisville 10-2; Florida 9-2 vs. Brigham Young 12-1; Tennessee 10-2 vs. Louisiana State 9-3; Texas 10-2 vs. Maryland 10-1; Illinois 10-1 vs. Stanford 9-2
Left Out: None
2002
Two teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Ohio State 13-0
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Georgia 12-1, Iowa 11-1
Four teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Southern California 10-2; Ohio State 13-0 vs. Georgia 12-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Iowa 11-1
Eight teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Boise State 11-1 Ohio State 13-0 vs. Florida State 9-4; Georgia 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 11-2; Southern California 10-2 vs. Washington State 10-2
Left Out: Iowa 11-1
Sixteen teams: U of Miami 12-0 vs. Cincinnati 7-6; Ohio State 13-0 vs. North Texas State 7-5; Georgia 12-1 vs. Marshall 11-2; Southern California 10-2 vs. Colorado State 10-3; Iowa 11-1 vs. Boise State 11-1; Washington State 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-4; Oklahoma 11-2 vs. Texas 10-2; Kansas State 10-2 vs. Notre Dame 10-2
Left Out: None
2003
Two teams: Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Louisiana State 12-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-1, Miami U. 12-1, Southern California 11-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Four teams: Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Michigan 10-2; Louisiana State 12-1 vs. Southern California 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-1, Miami U. 12-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Eight teams: Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Miami U. 12-1; Louisiana State 12-1 vs. Kansas State 11-3; Southern California 11-1 vs. U of Miami 10-2; Michigan 10-2 vs. Florida State 10-2
Left Out: Boise State 12-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Sixteen teams: Oklahoma 12-1 vs. North Texas State 9-3; Louisiana State 12-1 vs. Southern Mississippi 9-3; Southern California 11-1 vs. Utah 9-2; Michigan 10-2 vs. Boise State 12-1; Ohio State 10-2 vs. Miami U. 11-1; Texas 10-2 vs. Florida State 10-2; Tennessee 10-2 vs. Kansas State 11-3; Georgia 10-3 vs. U of Miami 10-2
Left Out: Texas Christian 11-1
2004
Two teams: Southern California 12-0 vs. Oklahoma 12-0
Left Out: Auburn 12-0, Boise State 11-0, Utah 12-0, California 11-1, Louisville 10-1, Texas 10-1
Four teams: Southern California 12-0 vs. Texas 10-1, Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Auburn 12-0
Left Out: Boise State 11-0, Utah 12-0, California 11-1, Louisville 10-1
Eight teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Michigan 9-2, Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Virginia Tech 10-2, Auburn 12-0 vs. Utah 12-0, Texas 10-1 vs. California 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-0, Louisville 10-1
Sixteen teams: Southern California 12-0 vs North Texas State 7-4, Oklahoma 12-0 vs. Toledo 9-3, Auburn 12-0 vs. Pittsburgh 8-3, Texas 10-1 vs. Michigan 9-2, California 11-1 vs. Iowa 9-2, Utah 12-0 vs. Louisiana State 9-2, Georgia 9-2 vs. Louisville 10-1, Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Boise State 11-0
Left Out: None
2005
Two teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Texas 12-0
Left Out: Oregon, 10-1, Penn State 10-1, Texas Christian 10-1, West Virginia 11-1
Four teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Ohio State 9-2, Texas 12-0 vs. Penn State 10-1
Left Out: Oregon 10-1, Texas Christian 10-1, West Virginia 11-1
Eight teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Florida State 8-4, Texas 12-0 vs. West Virginia 11-1, Penn State 10-1 vs. Georgia 10-2, Ohio State 9-2 vs. Oregon 10-1
Left Out: Texas Christian 10-1
Sixteen teams: Southern California 12-0 vs Arkansas State 6-5, Texas 12-0 vs. Akron 7-5, Penn State 10-1 vs. Tulsa 8-4, Ohio State 9-2 vs. Boise State 9-3, Oregon 10-1 vs. Florida State 8-4, Notre Dame 9-2 vs. Texas Christian 10-1, Georgia 10-2 vs. U of Miami 9-2
Left Out: none
2006
Two teams: Ohio State 12-0 vs. Florida 10-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Louisville 11-1, Michigan 11-1, Wisconsin 11-1
Four teams: Ohio State 12-0 vs. Louisiana State 9-2, Florida 10-1 vs. Michigan 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Louisville 11-1, Wisconsin 11-1
Eight teams: Ohio State 12-0 vs. Wake Forest 11-2, Florida 10-1 vs. Oklahoma 11-2, Michigan 11-1 vs. Louisville 11-1, Louisiana State 9-2 vs. Southern California 10-2
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Wisconsin 11-1
Sixteen teams: Ohio State 12-0 vs. Troy 7-5, Florida 10-1 vs. Central Michigan 9-4, Michigan 11-1 vs. Houston 10-3, Louisiana State 9-2 vs. Brigham Young 10-2, Southern California 10-2 vs. Wake Forest 11-2, Louisville 11-1 vs. Notre Dame 10-2, Wisconsin 11-1 vs. Oklahoma 11-2, Boise State 12-0 vs. Auburn 9-2
Left Out: None
2007
Two teams: Ohio State 11-1 vs. Louisiana State 11-2
Left Out: Hawaii 12-0, Kansas 11-1, Arizona State 10-2, Brigham Young 10-2, Georgia 10-2, Missouri 11-2, Oklahoma 11-2, Southern California 10-2, Virginia Tech 11-2, West Virginia 10-2
Four teams: Ohio State 11-1 vs. Oklahoma 11-2, Louisiana State 11-2 vs. Virginia Tech 11-2
Left Out: Hawaii 12-0, Kansas 11-1, Arizona State 10-2, Brigham Young 10-2, Georgia 10-2, Missouri 11-2, Southern California 10-2, West Virginia 10-2
Eight teams: Ohio State 11-1 vs. West Virginia 10-2, Louisiana State 11-2 vs. Southern California 11-2, Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Missouri 11-2, Oklahoma 11-2 vs. Georgia 10-2
Left Out: Hawaii 12-0, Kansas 11-1, Arizona State 10-2, Brigham Young 10-2
Sixteen teams: Ohio State 11-1 vs. Florida Atlantic 7-5, Louisiana State 11-2 vs. Central Michigan 8-5, Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Central Florida 10-3, Oklahoma 11-2 vs. Brigham Young 10-2, Georgia 10-2 vs. Hawaii 12-0, Missouri 11-2 vs. Florida 9-3, Southern California 11-2 vs. Arizona State 10-2, Kansas 11-1 vs. West Virginia 10-2
Left Out: none
2008
Two teams: Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 12-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Utah 12-0, Alabama 12-1, Ball State 12-1, Penn State 11-1, Southern California 11-1, Texas 11-1, Texas Tech 11-1
Four teams: Florida 12-1 vs. Alabama 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Texas 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Utah 12-0, Ball State 12-1, Penn State 11-1, Southern California 11-1, Texas Tech 11-1
Eight teams: Florida 12-1 vs. Virginia Tech 9-4, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Utah 12-0, Texas 11-1 vs. Penn State 11-1, Alabama 12-1 vs. Southern California 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 12-0, Ball State 12-1, Texas Tech 11-1
Sixteen teams: Florida 12-1 vs. Buffalo 8-5, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Troy 8-4, Texas 11-1 vs. East Carolina 9-4, Alabama 12-1 vs. Virginia Tech 9-4, Southern California 11-1 vs. Cincinnati 11-2, Penn State 11-1 vs. Texas Christian 10-2, Utah 12-0 vs. Ohio State 10-2, Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Boise State 12-0
Left Out: Ball State 12-1
2009
Two teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Texas 13-0
Left Out: Boise State 13-0, Cincinnati 12-0, Texas Christian 12-0, Florida 12-1
Four teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Texas Christian 12-0, Texas 13-0 vs. Cincinnati 12-0
Left Out: Boise State 13-0, Florida 12-1
Eight teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Iowa 10-2, Texas 13-0 vs. Georgia Tech 11-2, Cincinnati 12-0 vs. Ohio State 10-2, Florida 12-1 vs. Oregon 10-2
Left Out: Boise State 13-0, Texas Christian 12-0 (TCU was ranked #4 but a Mountain West team and the #1 Mid Major was Cincinnati so TCU drops out)
Sixteen teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. East Carolina 9-4, Texas 13-0 vs. Troy 9-3, Cincinnati 12-0 vs. Central Michigan 11-2, Texas Christian 12-0 vs. Penn State 10-2, Florida 12-1 vs. Louisiana State 9-3, Boise State 13-0 vs. Virginia Tech 9-3, Oregon 10-2 vs. Iowa 10-2, Ohio State 10-2 vs. Georgia Tech 11-2
Left Out: None
2010
Two teams: Auburn 13-0 vs. Oregon 12-0
Left Out: Texas Christian 12-0, Boise State 11-1, Michigan State 11-1, Nevada-Reno 11-1, Ohio State 11-1, Stanford 11-1, Wisconsin 11-1
Four teams: Auburn 13-0 vs. Wisconsin 11-1, Oregon 12-0 vs. Texas Christian 12-0
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Michigan State 11-1, Nevada-Reno 11-1, Ohio State 11-1, Stanford 11-1
Eight teams: Auburn 13-0 vs. Virginia Tech 11-2, Oregon 12-0 vs. Oklahoma 11-2, Texas Christian 12-0 vs. Ohio State 11-1, Wisconsin 11-1 vs. Stanford 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Michigan State 11-1, Nevada-Reno 11-1
Sixteen teams: Auburn 13-0 vs. Troy 7-5, Oregon 12-0 vs. Connecticut 8-4, Texas Christian 12-0 vs. Miami University 9-4, Wisconsin 11-1 vs. Central Florida 10-3, Stanford 11-1 vs. Virginia Tech 11-2, Ohio State 11-1 vs. Louisiana State 10-2, Michigan State 11-1 vs. Boise State 10-1, Arkansas 10-2 vs. Oklahoma 11-2
Left Out: Nevada-Reno 12-1
Note: Ohio State was forced to vacate their victories but that decision was made the following July so they could have been in these tournaments.)
2011
Two teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Alabama 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Houston 12-1, Oklahoma State 11-1, Stanford 11-1
Four teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Stanford 11-1, Alabama 11-1 vs. Oklahoma State 11-1
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Houston 12-1
Eight teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Oregon 11-2, Alabama 11-1 vs. Wisconsin 11-2, Oklahoma State 11-1 vs. Clemson 10-3, Stanford 11-1 vs. Texas Christian 10-2
Left Out: Boise State 11-1, Houston 12-1
Sixteen teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Louisiana Tech 8-4, Alabama 11-1 vs. Northern Illinois 10-3, Oklahoma State 11-1 vs. Arkansas State 10-2, Stanford 11-1 vs. West Virginia 9-3, Oregon 11-2 vs. Southern Mississippi 11-2, Arkansas 10-2 vs. Texas Christian 10-2, Boise State 11-1 vs. Clemson 10-3, Kansas State 10-2 vs. Wisconsin 11-2
Left Out: Houston 12-1
2012
Two teams: Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Alabama 12-1
Left Out: Florida 11-1, Kansas State 11-1, Northern Illinois 12-1, Oregon 11-1 (Ohio State 12-0 was on probation)
Four teams: Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Oregon 11-1, Alabama 12-1 vs. Florida 11-1
Left Out: Kansas State 11-1, Northern Illinois 12-1
Eight teams: Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Wisconsin 8-5, Alabama 12-1 vs. Northern Illinois 12-1, Florida 11-1 vs. Florida State 11-2, Kansas State 11-1 vs. Stanford 11-2
Left Out: Oregon 11-1 (drops out because Notre Dame and Florida took the two wild card spots)
Sixteen teams: Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Arkansas State 9-3, Alabama 12-1 vs. Tulsa 10-3, Florida 11-1 vs. Wisconsin 8-5, Oregon 11-1 vs. Utah State 10-2, Kansas State 11-1 vs. Louisville 10-2, Stanford 11-2 vs. Boise State 10-2, Georgia 11-2 vs. Northern Illinois 12-1, Louisiana State 10-2 vs. Florida State 11-2
Left Out: none
2013
Two teams: Florida State 13-0 vs. Auburn 12-1
Left Out: Alabama 11-1, Baylor 12-1, Central Florida 11-1, Fresno State 11-1, Louisville 12-1, Michigan State 12-1, Northern Illinois 12-1, Ohio State 12-1
Four teams: Florida State 13-0 vs. Michigan State 12-1, Auburn 12-1 vs. Alabama 11-1
Left Out: Baylor 12-1, Central Florida 11-1, Fresno State 11-1, Louisville 12-1, Northern Illinois 12-1, Ohio State 12-1
Eight teams: Florida State 13-0 vs. Central Florida 11-1, Auburn 12-1 vs. Ohio State 12-1, Alabama 11-1 vs. Baylor 12-1, Michigan State 12-1 vs. Stanford 11-2
Left Out: Central Florida 11-1, Fresno State 11-1, Louisville 12-1, Northern Illinois 12-1
Sixteen teams: Florida State 13-0 vs. Arkansas State 7-5, Auburn 12-1 vs. Bowling Green 10-3, Alabama 11-1 vs. Rice 10-3, Michigan State 12-1 vs. Fresno State 11-1, Stanford 11-2 vs. Central Florida 11-1, Baylor 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 10-2, Ohio State 12-1 vs. Oregon 10-2, Missouri 11-2 vs. South Carolina 10-2
Left Out: Louisville 12-1, Northern Illinois 12-1
2014
Two teams: Alabama 12-1 vs. Oregon 12-1
Left Out: Florida State 13-0, Baylor 11-1, Marshall 12-1, Ohio State 12-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Four teams: Alabama 12-1 vs. Ohio State 12-1, Oregon 12-1 vs. Florida State 13-0
Left Out: Baylor 11-1, Marshall 12-1, Texas Christian 11-1
Eight teams: Alabama 12-1 vs. Baylor 11-1, Oregon 12-1 vs. Texas Christian 11-1, Florida State 13-0 vs. Mississippi State 10-2, Ohio State 12-1 vs. Memphis 9-3
Left Out: Marshall 12-1
Sixteen teams: Alabama 12-1 vs. Georgia Southern 9-3, Oregon 12-1 vs. Northern Illinois 11-2, Florida State 13-0 vs. Marshall 12-1, Ohio State 12-1 vs. Memphis 9-3, Baylor 11-1 vs. Boise State 11-2, Texas Christian 11-1 vs. Kansas State 9-3, Mississippi State 10-2 vs. Arizona 10-3, Michigan State 10-2 vs. Mississippi 9-3
Left Out: None
2015
Two teams: Clemson 13-0 vs. Alabama 12-1
Left Out: Houston 12-1, Iowa 12-1, Michigan State 12-1, Ohio State 11-1, Oklahoma 11-1
Four teams: Clemson 13-0 vs. Oklahoma 11-1, Alabama 12-1 vs. Michigan State 12-1
Left Out: Houston 12-1, Iowa 12-1, Ohio State 11-1
Eight teams: Clemson 13-0 vs. Houston 12-1, Alabama 12-1 vs. Ohio State 11-1, Michigan State 12-1 vs. Stanford 11-2, Oklahoma 11-1 vs. Iowa 12-1
Left Out: Houston 12-1
Sixteen teams: Clemson 13-0 vs. Arkansas State 9-3, Alabama 12-1 vs. Bowling Green 10-3, Michigan State 12-1 vs. San Diego State 10-3, Oklahoma 11-1 vs. Western Kentucky 11-2, Iowa 12-1 vs. Houston 12-1, Stanford 11-2 vs. Texas Christian 10-2, Ohio State 11-1 vs. North Carolina 11-2, Notre Dame 10-2 vs. Florida State 10-2
Left Out: None
2016
Two teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Clemson 12-1
Left Out: Western Michigan 13-0, Ohio State 11-1, Washington 12-1
Four teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Washington 12-1, Clemson 12-1 vs. Ohio State 11-1
Left Out: Western Michigan 13-0
Eight teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Western Michigan 13-0, Clemson 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 10-2, Ohio State 11-1 vs. Michigan 10-2, Washington 12-1 vs. Penn State 11-2
Left Out: None
Sixteen teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Appalachian State 9-3, Clemson 12-1 vs. Western Kentucky 10-3, Ohio State 11-1 vs. Temple 10-3, Washington 12-1 vs. San Diego State 11-3, Penn State 11-2 vs. Western Michigan 13-0, Michigan 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3, Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Colorado 10-3, Wisconsin 10-3 vs. Southern California 9-3
Left Out: None
2017
Two teams: Clemson 12-1 vs. Oklahoma 12-1
Left Out: Central Florida 12-0, Alabama 11-1, Georgia 12-1, Wisconsin 12-1
Four teams: Clemson 12-1 vs. Alabama 11-1, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Georgia 12-1
Left Out: Central Florida 12-0, Wisconsin 12-1
Eight teams: Clemson 12-1 vs. Central Florida 12-0, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Southern California 11-2, Georgia 12-1 vs. Wisconsin 12-1, Alabama 11-1 vs. Ohio State 11-2
Left Out: None
Sixteen teams: Clemson 12-1 vs. Florida Atlantic 10-3, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Troy 10-2, Georgia 12-1 vs. Toledo 11-2, Alabama 11-1 vs. Boise State 10-3, Ohio State 11-2 vs. Central Florida 12-0, Wisconsin 12-1 vs. Washington 10-2, Auburn 10-3 vs. U of Miami 10-2, Southern California 11-2 vs.. Penn State 10-2
Left Out: None
2018
Two teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Clemson 13-0
Left Out: Central Florida 12-0, Notre Dame 12-0, Ohio State 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1
Four teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Oklahoma 12-1, Clemson 13-0 vs. Notre Dame 12-0
Left Out: Central Florida 12-0, Ohio State 12-1
Eight teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Washington 10-3, Clemson 13-0 vs. Central Florida 12-0, Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Ohio State 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Georgia 10-2
Left Out: None
Sixteen teams: Alabama 13-0 vs. Northern Illinois 8-5, Clemson 13-0 vs. Alabama-Birmingham 10-3, Notre Dame 12-0 vs. Appalachian State 10-2, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Fresno State 11-2, Georgia 10-2 vs. Penn State 9-3, Ohio State 12-1 vs. Louisiana State 9-3, Michigan 10-2 vs. Florida 9-3, Central Florida 12-0 vs. Washington 10-3
Left Out: none
2019
Two teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Ohio State 13-0
Left Out: Clemson 13-0, Appalachian State 12-1, Boise State 12-1, Memphis 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1
Four teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Oklahoma 12-1, Ohio State 13-0 vs. Clemson 13-0
Left Out: Appalachian State 12-1, Boise State 12-1, Memphis 12-1
Eight teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Memphis 12-1, Ohio State 13-0 vs. Baylor 11-2, Clemson 13-0 vs. Oregon 11-2, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Georgia 11-2
Left Out: Appalachian State 12-1, Boise State 12-1
Sixteen teams: Louisiana State 13-0 vs. Miami University 8-5, Ohio State 13-0 vs. Florida Atlantic 10-3, Clemson 13-0 vs. Appalachian State 12-1, Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Boise State 12-1, Georgia vs. Memphis 12-1, Oregon 11-2 vs. Utah 11-2, Baylor 11-2 vs. Penn State 10-2, Wisconsin 10-3 vs. Florida 10-2
Left Out: None
The final tally of “Left Out” teams is this:
With a two team playoff, 104 FBS schools with ‘national championship’ records would be left out of the playoffs in 22 years. 67 of them would be ‘power conference’ teams.
With a four team playoff, 57 FBS schools with ‘national championship’ records would be left out of the playoffs in 22 years. 33 of them would be ‘power conference’ teams.
With an eight team playoff, 36 FBS schools with ‘national championship’ records would be left out of the playoffs in 22 years. 11 of them would be ‘power conference’ teams.
With a sixteen team playoff, 8 FBS schools with ‘national championship’ records would be left out of the playoffs in 22 years. None of them would be ‘power conference’ teams.
It’s completely obvious to me that the 2 team playoff was not only inadequate but absurdly inadequate. The 4 team playoff is an improvement but a stepping stone to where we need to be. I could live with an 8 team playoffs but it’s “Left Out: None” that really passes the look test for me. The 16 team playoff achieves that 16 times in 22 years and there are no power conference teams excluded in the other 6 years. The 8 team playoff does that 4 times and 11 power conference teams get left out.
All these playoffs are perfectly doable, as the playoffs in the other divisions show. I’d prefer to see the games leading to the championship game to be played in December and the title game to be in one of the top bowls on an alternating annual basis. The teams that didn’t make the title game could still go to other bowls. We know the playoffs won’t kill the bowls because they keep adding to the list of bowls despite going to the BCS championship game and then a playoff. With the preliminary rounds in December the bowls would be totally unaffected.
The “it will ruin the regular season” argument is bogus. Firstly other things besides the national championship make a game matter. Our basketball team just had a “must win” over Georgia Tech on December 7th and they will now play a rivalry game with Georgetown. Those games are unlikely to have any impact on the national championship but they certainly mattered. If, indeed the regular season was a “single elimination tournament for the national championship”, (which is obviously isn’t), and that’s all that mattered, that would mean that once you lost, the rest of your schedule would become meaningless. If you looked at all the results in a season and determined how many games had a direct impact on who plays in a two team playoff, then a 4 team playoff, then an 8 team playoff, then a 16 team playoff, you would find that more games impact a 4 team playoff than a 2 team playoff. More teams impact an 8 team playoff than a 4 team playoff. And more games impact a 16 team playoff than an 8 team playoff. Ruining the regular season is an issue for 30 team pro leagues with 16 team playoffs, not for a 130 team college division considering an 8 or even 16 team playoff rather than a four team playoff.
Pro teams are made up 25-30 year olds that have played together for years. In the NFL they get four exhibition games before the season beginning. A 7-9 team has made the playoffs and a 9-7 team has won the Super Bowl. But in college, where teams are made up of 18-22 year olds with kaleidoscopic line-ups where you can lose half your starting line-up each year, a team with national title ambitions can lose them in a loss in August. Is that fair? Surely it’s more appropriate to allow teams to grow and develop over the course of the season and have a chance to win their way into a playoff with an automatic bid if they can win their conference or one of several at large bids.
So I conclude it’s rather have a 16 team playoff with automatic bids to all conferences and preliminary rounds in December is the best way to go. Others may draw other conclusions. At least we’ve all seen what a playoff would look like at each level and we can each decide what passes the ‘look test’.
