Point Spread anomalies in the tourney..
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Cusefan0307
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This is what happens when you use the RPI as an analytical tool. It's garbage.
Middle Tenn is all about last year. Though everyone probably forgot they got smoked in the second round.
RI looks like a legit line. Creighton is beatable and RI is playing well.
Wich St probably wins that game. Massively under seeded and Dayton probably over seeded.
RI looks like a legit line. Creighton is beatable and RI is playing well.
Wich St probably wins that game. Massively under seeded and Dayton probably over seeded.
CousCuse
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MTSU is legit. They are the new mid-major power.
jncuse
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They are not anomalies at all. Remember when we discussed how there was a correlation between KP and opening spreads. I told you Wichita St would have some lines that would surprise you.
Based on KP
Minnesota - Margin 16.59/100
Middle Tennessee St - Margin 14.65/100
Difference = 1.94 * 66.6 / 100 (teams average 66.6 possessions)
Line = Minnesota (-1.28)
Wichita St - Margin 26.41 / 100
Dayton - Margin 15.67 / 100
Difference = 11.74 * 68.4/100
Line = Wichita (-8.03)
Creighton 19.59 vs Rhode Island 15.62
Line = Creighton (+2.7)
It seems like they discounted Wichita St which makes sense - number seems a little high, but they still gave them tonnes of credit based on the metrics. With Rhode Island they are back to being fully healthy so I am not surprised to see they discounted the metric about a point in their favour.
They will move the lines as action comes in, but whatever system Vegas uses they are fairly committed to it.
PhatOrange
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Dayton has a good coach.
jncuse
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I heard the chair say the one thing they discussed more this weekend than almost anything was where to seed Wichita St, because their metrics were outstanding. He said the ranges in seeding for them was wider than he ever saw. (I suspect all the way from 5-12)
Not surprising given that RPI is out the door and some are pushing much more for metrics to have meaning individually moving forward. In the end, the old standards won out and Wichita St got a 10 seed due to lack of top 50 wins.
I think the #10 seed was a compromise. Kept them away from the #8/#9 line, and they gave them a weaker #7 seed in Dayton.
I am looking forward to the Kentucky/Wichita St rematch from 2014. That was a great 1/8 game and this should be a solid 2/10 game.
Not surprising given that RPI is out the door and some are pushing much more for metrics to have meaning individually moving forward. In the end, the old standards won out and Wichita St got a 10 seed due to lack of top 50 wins.
I think the #10 seed was a compromise. Kept them away from the #8/#9 line, and they gave them a weaker #7 seed in Dayton.
I am looking forward to the Kentucky/Wichita St rematch from 2014. That was a great 1/8 game and this should be a solid 2/10 game.
Cusefannotindc
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In your zeal to find disagreement with me you breezed right past my point.
All I said was that these three point spreads didn't match up with the NCAAT seeding. Nothing more, nothing less.
In other words, a 5/12 matchup (MN/MTSU) and 6/11 (Creighton/RI) were essentially pick-ems. Those are anomalies. Meanwhile a 10 (Wichita State) is favored by six points over a 7 (Dayton). If properly seeded you don't expect these kinds of anomalies.
None of what you posted has anything to do with what I posted. I'm not surprised Wichita State is favored over Dayton but apparently the NCAA Selection Committee is. Same with MTSU and RI.
jncuse
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Thanks. Saves me some time from doing the calc from the main screen,
jncuse
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Nope. They were properly seeded. We have had these discussions for years. You say I am "Crazy" for saying a team will be seeded somewhere. I state why they will be seeded there. Your counter argument is to try to bet. There are guidelines for seeding (whether they are out of date is another story). The Selection Committee followed them properly for the most part.
Now they do show that the seeding guidelines are out of whack. But this current Selection committee did seed based on the guidelines
And BTW, you said the KP number for Wichita St was grossly inflated and that it would not bear out come tourney time. Pretty sure you tried to bet me as well on that one.
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Thanks for the substantive response.
I make an incredibly simplistic point that is beyond debate given it's factual nature and you want to turn it into a dissertation on smashing atoms.
jncuse
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The reason I put fail because your responses are never based on rules or criteria and just end up wanting to bet on things that you are wrong on.
I never mentioned anything about betting so that's just nonsense.
It's not about my response, it's about my initial post which just made a very simple and factual point. You read way too much into that initial post. But there's a better chance of Mount St. Mary's cutting down the nets than you admitting you missed my point or read too much into it.
orangecuse
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Ha, 2 years in a row Dayton probably saying W T F. Last year as 7, Dayton draws us, this year again they're a 7 seed and draw WSU. However, you get what you farging deserve. As a 1 seed, if you had just beaten frigging 9 seed Davidson in your weak ass conference tourney game, then you would've played Rhode Island. Had you beaten RI, most likely RI is out and we get in. So, F them anyway!
