Chelsea is falling apart and will be losing some players next transfer window. I also think the Lukaku marriage is beyond repair at this point already.
Tuchel isn't playing players at their best position and it's causing a lot of issues.
Villa could make a move but are too far back at this point.
West Ham and Arsenal are playing well, but will form hold the remainder of the season?
Tottenham and Man U are hanging around, and Man U has way too much talent to be where they are. I think they make a move up the table and finish out top 4.
Top ten end of season
Man City
Liverpool
Man U
Tottenham
West Ham
Arsenal
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Wolverton
Leicester
I agree about Chelsea. Their defense started falling apart in mid-November when the awareness sunk in that Rudiger, Azpi, and Christensen are all likely to leave. The attack has never truly clicked under Tuchel, but they were conceding less than half a goal a game, and Mendy was pitching shutouts more often than not.
As all this contract stuff became so public, and it began sinking in that they were all refusing to renew their contracts with January approaching (after we just sold off 3 promising defenders to pay for Lukaku!), it inevitably affected their commitment and concentration on defense.
I think Tuchel went to the back 3 to shore up a leaky defense under Lampard, but he lost that offense. But I think that with this group you could use a 4-2-3-1. It would shore up the defense, keep a double pivot in the back of midfield to break up the counter attack, and it would have 4 guys forward with a true number 10 to facilitate. I could see Mount or Havertz doing well in that role, with Pulisic and Werner alternating on the left wing, and CHO and Ziyech on the right. The pieces fit better that way, and they aren't set up so defensively.
As for the other Top 4 / Top 6 contenders - I really like Villa picking up Digne and Coutinho, who got a goal and an assist in his first 14 minutes off the bench against Man United. Villa is only a couple players away from competing for Europa League. They could use a good defensive midfielder, and a tall striker for set pieces, as a change of pace from Ings and Ollie.
West Ham has to strengthen in January. They can't play Antonio every single week or he'll get hurt, especially in the winter when muscle injuries are more common. They have been very impressive in holding on to their team, and buying smartly. The two central Europeans, Coufal and Soucek, have not been quite as productive in their second seasons in England. They lost their top 3 central defenders to injury. I think it's inevitable that they fade unless they buy about 3 new guys to freshen up, and that's risky to do in January.
At Tottenham, Conte is a great coach, but so combustible if he can't spend money and control player movement. I am surprised he hasn't been able to get Harry Kane going, because he is very good with focal-point strikers. Kane seems a broken man this year. I'll bet that he is sold this summer by Levy, but he's past peak now.
At Arsenal, their good form owes much to the young attacking guys being given a chance, and a few good purchases of young talent in midfield and at the back. I find it hard to see them as a better team by selling Aubamayang and / or Lacazette, but it seems like that's going to happen. I guess their director of personnel has finally put together a good scouting department at Arsenal.
Liverpool still has a small chance at catching Man City, but I think they and Chelsea have to focus on Cups now, and write off the Premier League. Both are in solid shape to hold on to their Top 4 standing. Glad that Chelsea is in the League Cup Final, and we still have the Club World Cup coming up.
