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Message: [QUOTE="FloridaCuse, post: 5684962, member: 8912"] [B]LACROSSE REFERENCE Preview [/B] via free Expected Goals Email Feb 27, 2026 [COLOR=rgb(51, 51, 51)][FONT=Helvetica][TABLE] [TR] [td][TABLE] [TR] [td][HEADING=1][SIZE=24px][COLOR=#000000]Preview: Princeton vs Syracuse[/COLOR][/SIZE][/HEADING][/td] [/TR] [/TABLE][/td] [/TR] [/TABLE][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(51, 51, 51)][FONT=Helvetica][TABLE] [TR] [SIZE=4][td][SIZE=4][COLOR=inherit]LaxElo sees this as a slight lean toward Princeton despite Syracuse's higher national profile. Based on the current ratings (Princeton 10th, Syracuse 4th), if these teams played 100 times, we would expect Syracuse to win 44 of those games, once we account for Princeton's home-field bump. That framing underscores how thin the margin is here: both outcomes are very much in play. From a matchup standpoint, though, most of the underlying numbers tilt toward Syracuse. On the defensive end, Syracuse brings one of the country's elite units. They rank 2nd in opponent‑adjusted defensive efficiency, meaning they have done a better job than almost anyone at limiting high‑quality looks after accounting for the strength of their schedule. Princeton's offense, by contrast, sits 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency. That is a solid profile, but it suggests the Tigers are more “good” than “overwhelming,” and they will be facing a group that has consistently pushed opposing offenses out of their comfort zones. In practical terms, Princeton probably cannot count on a shootout where they simply outscore Syracuse; they will need to be sharp in shot selection and extra‑man chances to keep pace. Flipping the field doesn’t help Princeton much. Syracuse’s offense ranks 3rd in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, while Princeton’s defense is 18th. Both Tiger units are solid, but on both sides the Orange are a bit more efficient once you adjust for schedule. That combo—top-3 offense and top-2 defense—helps explain why the numbers see Syracuse as the more complete team, even if LaxElo still leaves the door open for a Princeton win. The possession game is where the gap looks most stark. After adjusting for opponent quality, Syracuse is averaging +2.1 more offensive possessions than their opponents, 32nd nationally. Princeton, on the other hand, sits at a ‑5.1 possession margin, 62nd nationally. Over a full game, that kind of seven‑possession swing between typical profiles can be decisive, especially when the more efficient team is also the one gaining the extra chances. A deeper look at faceoffs helps explain that edge. Syracuse's John Mullen is rated 21st in the Faceoff Elo rankings, while Princeton's Andrew McMeekin is 25th. That is not a massive gap, but combined with the broader possession‑margin numbers, it suggests Syracuse is slightly more likely to generate incremental advantages at the stripe and then convert those into additional offensive trips. If Princeton cannot at least play Mullen to a draw over the course of the game, they will be asking their defense to absorb a heavy workload against a top‑tier offense. Overall, the numbers point the same way: Syracuse rates higher on offense and defense and does a better job picking up extra possessions. LaxElo still leans a bit toward Princeton because of home field, and because in a single game those edges don’t always show up on the scoreboard. If Princeton can trim the possession gap—through faceoffs, riding pressure, or fewer turnovers—they have enough talent to make that slight Elo edge count. If not, Syracuse’s efficiency and extra volume give the Orange a clear path to control the game.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/td][/SIZE] [/TR] [/TABLE][/FONT][/COLOR] [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?