Projecting Christmas (Rakeem that is) | Syracusefan.com

Projecting Christmas (Rakeem that is)

billsin01

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It's probably too early to start calling Christmas an enigma but it is strange to watch a guy with so much athleticism and such an impressive frame look so lost for long stretches of games. That said, it's early in his career.

But what I was thinking the other day was where do we see his career playing out? The two career paths I envision for him are Damone Brown (if things break right) and Terrence Roberts (if things are OK, but not great). As a baseline, the guy is too athletic and has too much size to be simply a non-factor.

Regardless, there are plenty of similarities. All three are in the 6-9 range and all had excellent athleticism (though Damone was probably not quite the athlete of the other two). None got off to auspicious beginnings as freshmen (Christmas was the best at around 3 ppg and 3 rpg). They are likely to post fairly similar sophomore seasons -- Damone went for 9.5 ppg and 5.5 rpg; Roberts went for 7 ppg and 4 rpg and and Xmas will probably end up somewhere around 7 ppg and 5 rpg, or thereabouts. Obviously Damone posted better numbers than the others, but fighting for PT with blackwell/etan/eric williams/elvir ovcina/shumpert as a frosh is much different that Keita/Coleman/Fair/Southerland/Grant, all of whom are really good players/prospects or Hak/Forth/Watkins/Pace/Nichols.

But after their sophomore seasons, Brown improved as a junior, then exploded as a senior displaying a decent shooting touch, jacking his rebounds up to almost 9/game and putting together a really, really good season.

Roberts, who battled some injury issues, never managed to figure out what he needed to do offensively. despite the potential, he largely finished his career as a catch-and-finish big man who rebounded well and defended decently.

Any thoughts as to where Christmas fits in? Pre-season I would have said Brown was the logical comp. Now I think I hedge toward somewhere in the middle -- maybe a 10 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 bpg type guy in 29-30 mpg?
 
I think Rocs biggest issue is his defense and a lack of a killer instinct. I don't think he compares to Brown (I see Brown more as a wing) very much at all but I am hoping he is better than Trob who never developed any kind of touch around the basket. I am very interested to see how he plays tonight because his last two games were not good.
 
Way to early on Rak. He is playing timid the last few games. thats good news.
He will get better lateral quickness and learn to always jump as high as he can when shooting in the lane over time.

Rak is in a past year southerland role right now. I wrote it in another post and people disagreed, but I would like to see Rak put up 6-8 shots in mid (not low) post isolation once or twice. Utilizing his verticle before BE play starts. Even if he misses all 7 giving him a leadership role could push him harder on Defense and will show the opportunity is there for him if he starts knocking them down. Unlike Southerland I think it could spark his defensive intensity even if he does miss. He has dissapeared in a few games this year.
 
believe it or not, Rak plans to come out after this season. No kidding.
 
he's always going to be the 5th option offensively whenever he is on the court, so I don't judge him too much there - except to note that when he does get a look, he is quite efficient - his offensive efficiency is 111.4, which trails only Dirty, BMK and Grant. He is a very good rebounder as well, but it doesn't show up as much in the stats because Syracuse as a team is very good on the boards - every SU player is losing boards to their teammates, so individual numbers tend to look a bit pedestrian. On defense, his rotations as a forward are improving, and his shot blocking is elite level. He draws the fewest fouls per block among the three bigs, so that makes his shot blocking even more efficient.

He's a different kind of forward from either Roberts or Brown - they were both utilized a lot more on the offensive end. Roc's role is to sweep the boards and play defense. He is very good at those tasks. When the Orange start facing better teams with bigger front lines, Roc is really going to begin showing his value. Dirty, CJ and DC are the offensive forwards; Roc and BMK will anchor the defense.
 
believe it or not, Rak plans to come out after this season. No kidding.

I still think me should he turns 21 this month and this year draft is considered by many the worse in 5-6 years. Next years draft will be a monster and at 23 his senior year he will be a seconder rounder regardless.
 
Its hard to really project where this kid is going. He doesn't have any "move" if he gets the ball. He's just defense and rebounding with a very raw offensive game, like many young bigs. He needs a big man coach to help him. Develop a couple moves.

I'm not sure why every kid over 6'9 doesn't develop a little running jump hook. Whenever anyone goes to work the Hakeem the dream, he puts this into their bag of tricks.
 
Its hard to really project where this kid is going. He doesn't have any "move" if he gets the ball. He's just defense and rebounding with a very raw offensive game, like many young bigs. He needs a big man coach to help him. Develop a couple moves.

I'm not sure why every kid over 6'9 doesn't develop a little running jump hook. Whenever anyone goes to work the Hakeem the dream, he puts this into their bag of tricks.

He can make a ton of money rebounding and defending in the NBA (Etan had a 10yr career doing that)


Unfortunately tall Kids want to be guards now they all think they're the next KD
 
I still think me should he turns 21 this month and this year draft is considered by many the worse in 5-6 years. Next years draft will be a monster and at 23 his senior year he will be a seconder rounder regardless.

Even before he arrived on campus there were reports of him being one and done by credible sources. He clearly has ability but he's just not all there yet. I'd love for him to be more offensive minded, think it'd help his confidence. He's gotta ways to go. The draft is about potential and, you are right, if he's 23 as a senior they won't see potential anymore.
 
I didn't think he had a mid-range shot either, until he showed up with one the first couple of games. Personally, I think he's gone as well (whether we're all 'ready' or not). His upside is huge ... with tremendous athleticism and quickness for a big. But his potential as a glass-cleaner and shot-blocker (which could get him some looks from pro teams) better start showing up more at both ends of the floor. I think it will.
 
Is his upside really that big? Is he really anything more than 2nd round fodder if he leaves after this year?
 
I would be more encouraged about his short and long term prospects if Rak did something really well. He has limited offensive game and he doesn't impress as a strong defensive player that can rebound and block shots (i.e, Fab). I don't buy the argument that the team is a good rebounding team, so he doesn't get as many opportunities. I have been more impressed with MCW as a rebounder and would bet that CJ gets more rebounds tonight. He is similar to Fab in that he got a late start in the sport. Hope I am wrong but I think his growth curve will be slow and steady as opposed to a quick pop. He may leave early but I don't see where he could really help an NBA team at this point in his development.
 
I have been more impressed with MCW as a rebounder and would bet that CJ gets more rebounds tonight.
I'll bet he does, too, because he'll play more minutes

it's not # of rebounds that counts; it's rebounding percentage.

He may leave early but I don't see where he could really help an NBA team at this point in his development.

He has size, athleticism, and a motor. He can rebound and, though it is hard to be sure in a zone system, looks like he has all the tools to defend the PF position.

Nobody is going to draft him after 6 games against inferior opponents, but there is enough on his side of the ledger to think he could play himself into a solid 2nd rounder by the end of the season.
 
Is his upside really that big? Is he really anything more than 2nd round fodder if he leaves after this year?

Yeah, I really don't get that either. I mean, I see him as a borderline guy now, but a guy who'd have a tough time getting minutes and therefore getting a chance to develop anything. I'm not saying he won't go, but I'd be pretty shocked.
 
he's always going to be the 5th option offensively whenever he is on the court, so I don't judge him too much there - except to note that when he does get a look, he is quite efficient - his offensive efficiency is 111.4, which trails only Dirty, BMK and Grant. He is a very good rebounder as well, but it doesn't show up as much in the stats because Syracuse as a team is very good on the boards - every SU player is losing boards to their teammates, so individual numbers tend to look a bit pedestrian. On defense, his rotations as a forward are improving, and his shot blocking is elite level. He draws the fewest fouls per block among the three bigs, so that makes his shot blocking even more efficient.

He's a different kind of forward from either Roberts or Brown - they were both utilized a lot more on the offensive end. Roc's role is to sweep the boards and play defense. He is very good at those tasks. When the Orange start facing better teams with bigger front lines, Roc is really going to begin showing his value. Dirty, CJ and DC are the offensive forwards; Roc and BMK will anchor the defense.

I guess when I think of Brown I think more about overall development as opposed to specific type of player. As in Brown came in really raw, took a nice jump as a soph, improved a bit as a junior and then took a leap as a senior.

Roberts, meanwhile, came in as a talented kid, improved as a soph but then plateaued, largely functioning as solid defensively and mostly a catch-and-finish guy at the offensive end.

If Xmas leaves after this year, I suppose the comparison is pointless, but my thought was more that I actually think he has the potential to develop into a pretty solid college offensive player. I could see him being a guy that gets to 11-12 ppg with a good shooting percentage and a few low-post moves. The question I have after six games -- which I admit is far too soon to draw any definitive conclusions -- is that his development curve feels pretty flat. I didn't expect huge strides offensively but he has looked pretty bad and pretty soft on that end. And defensively he's been solid at C, but still looks like he has trouble handling the wing. Solid rebounder but far from dominant there too.
 
I would be more encouraged about his short and long term prospects if Rak did something really well. He has limited offensive game and he doesn't impress as a strong defensive player that can rebound and block shots (i.e, Fab). I don't buy the argument that the team is a good rebounding team, so he doesn't get as many opportunities. I have been more impressed with MCW as a rebounder and would bet that CJ gets more rebounds tonight. He is similar to Fab in that he got a late start in the sport. Hope I am wrong but I think his growth curve will be slow and steady as opposed to a quick pop. He may leave early but I don't see where he could really help an NBA team at this point in his development.

Yeah, feel the same way in regard to the defense and rebounding. His defense at center is fine, but I also feel like ideally he's handling the 4 and I haven't seen that yet, defensively or offensively. It is early, however.
 
I get the sense that Rak's not really a college guy, or all that well suited for the college game.

It's not the worst thing if he decides that he's ok rolling the dice on the NBA and getting paid to play hoops somewhere else if he doesn't land.
 
My gut is that Rakeem's problem is more mental than anything. He strikes me as quiet and unassuming, almost awkward if anything.

Killer instincts can be developed. There is nothing mythical or genetic about a killer instinct. Killer instinct means "I'm used to winning and I am going to make sure I win right now". It's more about developing a winning attitude and eliminating any mental blocks you have.

Rakeem is the type of player that can break out ANY game and become a star or never break out at all. I put him in the Triche category (but more genetically talented).
 
Roc could go pro. Just like Paul Harris did. To Asia.
 
Roc could go pro. Just like Paul Harris did. To Asia.

Paul is an example of staying too long. If left after his first year he would have been drafted on potential alone. He would have probably been a bust but he would had made a couple of million on the way there.
 
This is kinda what i was talking about after seeing him in a high school game and after the HS all star set: he just doesn't have the kind of motor that would make his physical gifts pay off.

He's 'in it' for short spurts, but there's a lack of focus. You can see it very clearly when he makes a defensive play/move, but then watches the results passively. Not much to do about that. That's the kind of thing that limits a player — not that one specific example, but the mindset or lack thereof that keeps a guy with the tools from being a great player.

He needs to be at SU for 4 years, and show JB he's deserving of some specific playcalling in his direction. If he's not going to somewhat be a focus of the offense, I don't see him contributing enough in other ways to be a worthwhile gamble for an NBA team. Which may be a shame, as the better spacing opportunities in the NBA might just be what he needs. He's got good touch and good hands. It just might take him five more years to be an effective player.
 
Wow. Lots of energy from Rak early in this game. Good to see.
 

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