Put the Ball In the Basket

[SWC75]

I’ve always thought getting points for putting the ball in the basket was probably Naismith’s first idea and his best one. When we lost to Pittsburgh I noted that they had attempted one more field goal than us, (and it was one more three pointers, which was a miss, since we made the same number of treys), and one more free throw, (which they made since they made one more than we did). Whatever else you want to talk about regarding the game, it was hard to argue against the idea that the Panthers just shot better than we did and that’s why they won. Sometimes that could be about the quality of defense played but sometimes it’s just better, and occasionally luckier, shooting. I decided to see what the score of games might have been like if the shooting percentages of the teams on two pointers, three pointers and free throws were reversed. If that reversed the actual out-come of the game or made it a different game, we need to understand that the most basic part of the game still matters most.

Here's a breakdown of our first game vs. San Diego State:

SU: 56 (.462) twos 4 (.250) treys + 19 (.579) ones = 62 points
San Diego State: 45 (.270) twos 18 (.056) treys + 33 (.424) ones = 49 points
Reverse the percentages and you get:
SU: 15 twos + 0 threes + 8 ones = 38 points
SDS: 21 twos + 4 threes + 19 ones = 73 points

I did that for every game but I won't repeat every breakdown here. Instead I'll go right to the bottom line:

San Diego State: Actual score: 62-49 Differential: +13 If shooting percentages reversed: 38-73 Differential: -35 Net difference: -48
Wagner 88-57 +31 63-79 -16 -47
Princeton 73-53 +20 74-49 +25 +5
Colgate 87-51 +36 80-58 +22 -14
Arkansas 91-82 +9 76-91 -15 -24
E. Michigan 84-48 +36 62-67 -5 -41
Long Beach 84-53 +31 54-72 -18 -49
Monmouth 108-56 +52 76-82 -6 -58
Canisius 85-61 +24 59-87 -28 -52
Detroit 72-68 +4 69-73 -4 -8
Temple 79-83 -4 85-68 +17 -21
Alcorn St 57-36 +21 82-36 +46 +25
C Connecticut 96-62 +34 70-89 -19 -53
Rutgers 78-53 +25 67-73 -6 -31
S. Florida 55-44 +11 72-35 +37 +26
Providence 72-66 +6 72-67 +5 -1
Villanova 72-61 +11 65-68 -3 -14
Louisville 70-68 +2 58-80 -22 -24
Cincinnati 57-55 +2 46-73 -27 -29
Villanova 71-75 -4 82-56 +26 +30
Pittsburgh 55-65 -10 64-56 +8 +18
Notre Dame 63-47 +16 42-62 -20 -36
St. John’s 77-58 +19 58-79 -21 -40
Connecticut 58-66 -8 85-47 +38 +46

If we shot what our opponents shot and vice-versa we’d have a record of 9 wins and 15 losses. The average difference it makes is 31 points per game. What I would call “possession stats”: rebounds, steals, unforced turnovers, (which should be a separate stat from steals), loose balls, (which should also be a stat) are important. But Syracuse usually gets enough shots off to win the game. The most important thing is: how well do you put the ball in the basket.

 

[bballbeadle]

A complicated way to come to an obvious conclusion. Ah, numbers! They don't lie. Thanks, SWC.

 

[Coach Orange]

It's a simple game--score more than your opponent, you win. The other stuff in the game is about meeting that objective.

 

[AccuRater]

I don’t think JB emphasizes offense. He’s a defense coach. Our defense is innovative and interesting. Our half-court sets are pedestrian at best. Passing around the perimeter, drives into traffic and way too many 3s. Halftime adjustments usually involve shutting down the opponent’s hot hand rather than modifying our plan of attack.

Like a lot of coaches, JB emphasizes what he thinks he can control. For JB, that’s defense and transition offense. Offensive production in the half court “just happens”. You’re hot or you’re not. Shots fall or they don’t.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I don’t think JB emphasizes offense. He’s a defense coach. Our defense is innovative and interesting. Our half-court sets are pedestrian at best. Passing around the perimeter, drives into traffic and way too many 3s. Halftime adjustments usually involve shutting down the opponent’s hot hand rather than modifying our plan of attack.

Like a lot of coaches, JB emphasizes what he thinks he can control. For JB, that’s defense and transition offense. Offensive production in the half court “just happens”. You’re hot or you’re not. Shots fall or they don’t.

There could be some truth to this. We need to find better ways to make opposing teams' defense work harder. We don't have that many good ISO players. One shot off of one or zero passes isn't going to cut it in March.

 

[SWC75]

I don’t think JB emphasizes offense. He’s a defense coach. Our defense is innovative and interesting. Our half-court sets are pedestrian at best. Passing around the perimeter, drives into traffic and way too many 3s. Halftime adjustments usually involve shutting down the opponent’s hot hand rather than modifying our plan of attack.

Like a lot of coaches, JB emphasizes what he thinks he can control. For JB, that’s defense and transition offense. Offensive production in the half court “just happens”. You’re hot or you’re not. Shots fall or they don’t.

He used to be know as a coach who just "rolls the ball out there" and lets his players do what they want. At least he's focusing on defense now!It bothered me when he said on his show that nobody runs a motion offense anymore because too many players handle the ball, there's too much potential for a turnover and you might wind up with the wrong guy having the ball. I think offense runs much better when the players move and try to get open. Whatever happened to "hitting the open man" and "we don't need a go-to guy because they're all go-to guys"? If you don't get the defense moving, you aren't going to create any openings.

Also, JB these days shows a public tendency to express little concern with things that go poorly: "That's the way it goes...". I'm sure it's not his private viewpoint. He just doesn't want to discuss why we lose to Pittsburgh or why Louisville had that losing streak, ("it's cyclcial"), why we have trouble scoring, etc. etc.

 

[SWC75]

It's a simple game--score more than your opponent, you win. The other stuff in the game is about meeting that objective.

Shooting is not happenstance, of course. It's more than "if you're hot you're hot and if you're not you're not". If you contest shots well and force the opposition to make longer and quicker ones, obviously that has a lot to do with results. So does getting open for good shots and making good passes. They aren't all free throws.

You could divide a team's stats into two categories: possession and shooting. If you can get off as many shots as the opposition, (and there isn't a big discrepancy in fouls to account for it), you did OK in the possession stats and it's about shooting and defending shots. We had virtually the same number of shots as Pitt and 20 more than Connecticut, so we know why we lost those games.

 

[baggerbob]

We've had guys like Billy, Gerry, Devo, Jonny, Dion who could score in many ways, MCW has the physical tools but his lack of strength appears to cause him to miss a lot of shots.

 

[SWC75]

Keep in mind that a stat that we would be 9-15 if we shot like the opposition but we are 20-4 actually suggests that we do a pretty good job of putting the ball in the basket (and preventing the other team from doing the same). I just wish we had more of a perimeter game. (Hear that Brandon and Trevor?)

 

[Coach Orange]

Shooting is not happenstance, of course. It's more than "if you're hot you're hot and if you're not you're not". If you contest shots well and force the opposition to make longer and quicker ones, obviously that has a lot to do with results. So does getting open for good shots and making good passes. They aren't all free throws.

You could divide a team's stats into two categories: possession and shooting. If you can get off as many shots as the opposition, (and there isn't a big discrepancy in fouls to account for it), you did OK in the possession stats and it's about shooting and defending shots. We had virtually the same number of shots as Pitt and 20 more than Connecticut, so we know why we lost those games.

Well put.

 

[LetMeIn]

Shooting is not happenstance, of course. It's more than "if you're hot you're hot and if you're not you're not". If you contest shots well and force the opposition to make longer and quicker ones, obviously that has a lot to do with results. So does getting open for good shots and making good passes. They aren't all free throws.

You could divide a team's stats into two categories: possession and shooting. If you can get off as many shots as the opposition, (and there isn't a big discrepancy in fouls to account for it), you did OK in the possession stats and it's about shooting and defending shots. We had virtually the same number of shots as Pitt and 20 more than Connecticut, so we know why we lost those games.

This is certainly true, but I think it is a little more complicated than that. We might have had 20 more shots, but we were taking longer and quicker ones than was. At some point we have to give credit to the defense their guards played on MCW and Triche. They played defense with their feet and would not let Triche and MCW get to where they wanted them to go.Thus Cuse ended up with a lot of tough long shots and difficult shots in the lane.

Conversely, Uconn's guards used their quickness to get to the high post in the zone and then kick out for corner threes or dish for to Tyler "McLovin" Olander for easy layups. A quick guard getting to the high post is probably more effective than having a big flash to the post because a guard is much more comfortable making decisions with the ball from there.

Uggh...I can't believe I am complimenting . I just threw up in my mouth.

 

[SWC75]

This is certainly true, but I think it is a little more complicated than that. We might have had 20 more shots, but we were taking longer and quicker ones than was. At some point we have to give credit to the defense their guards played on MCW and Triche. They played defense with their feet and would not let Triche and MCW get to where they wanted them to go.Thus Cuse ended up with a lot of tough long shots and difficult shots in the lane.

Conversely, Uconn's guards used their quickness to get to the high post in the zone and then kick out for corner threes or dish for to Tyler "McLovin" Olander for easy layups. A quick guard getting to the high post is probably more effective than having a big flash to the post because a guard is much more comfortable making decisions with the ball from there.

Uggh...I can't believe I am complimenting . I just threw up in my mouth.

as I said: If you contest shots well and force the opposition to make longer and quicker ones, obviously that has a lot to do with results. So does getting open for good shots and making good passes.

 

[LetMeIn]

as I said: If you contest shots well and force the opposition to make longer and quicker ones, obviously that has a lot to do with results. So does getting open for good shots and making good passes.

Oops! Guess maybe if it had been italicized the first time i wouldn't've missed it.
You have to admit, you do tend to pack a lot of info into your threads. My bad.

At any rate, i'm glad we agree.