So we officially passed the quarter-pole of the season in our last game and I always find that an interesting point of the season in the sense that while there is still a loooonnngggg way to go and a lot can happen, we are beyond the point where everything is a small sample size. Always feel like you have a bit of handle on what you know, and what you still need to find out. With that said, figured it's worth looking at what some of the intriguing stories (I'm leaving health issues out of it b/c they're a factor every year for every team) might be as we head toward the first chunk of conference play.
Adapt or die: How will JB tweak the zone?
There is a ton of data -- anecdotal and legit statistical data -- to suggest that college is following the NBA into a 3-point heavy era. The attempt rate had gone from 31% to 35% across college basketball from 2010 to 2016, but I would guess there will be a significant jump again this year as 241 of 351 are at at least 35% this season. Anecdotally, we've seen Colgate shoot basically 70% of it's shots from three and two individuals get red hot and win or nearly win a game on their own (Graham and Heurter).
To be fair to JB, it's not like he hasn't noticed. We've already seen one adjustment the past couple years as the wings play much higher with the ball at the top of the key effectively turning the zone into more of a 2-2-1, and then it shifts into almost a 3-2 when the ball swings to a wing.
So there is a segment that will argue we need to ditch the zone but it's not like playing man exclusively inherantly solves that problem. So the question that remains is this: Do we need to adapt more to continue to play exclusively zone? It's a legit question b/c we played OK in the zone last season once we figured out our rotation, got White on the wing and came together as a team. This year we're holding opponents to 61 ppg on .385 shooting overall. That said, we're surrendering 9+ made threes per game and allowing teams to shoot 35% -- a little higher than ideal.
My humble suggestion is that I'd love to see the zone get a bit more aggressive at the point of attack. I used to love when MCW or Andy Rautins would hound the ball outside the three-point line beyond the top of the key. Feel it takes away that straight-away long-range three and perhaps forces teams inside the three-point line a bit more often and disrupts the general flow of the offense (Heurter and Graham in particular shot deep, but largely uncontested threes from that spot all night). Also think we need our centers to cheat an extra step to get to the corner three and get our back-side guys gambling a bit more collapsing down close to the lane when they anticipate that pass.
Anyway, I"m not a coach. I don't see any reason the zone is any less equipped than M2M to handle three-point shooting teams but I do agree that we may need to see some more tweaks since not only are teams more comfortable shooting from out there, but thye also are more comfortable shooting from deep.
Can Frank Howard win over the haters?
So Frank had an atrocious game against UConn and, quite frankly, he's probably going to have a few more as he's not an ideal PG and he struggles against physical defenders -- especially smaller, quicker but still physical guys. Having said that, the guy half this board was hoping would transfer is averaging 15 and 6 and hitting 77% of his free throws. Struggling a bit from the field, but consider this: Howard has 54 assists on the year. The rest of the team combined? 60. Some of that has to do with struggles shooting the ball and lack of quality scorers. But the bottom line is we need frank desperately: can he be the second (or third depending on Brissett) scoring option on this team, while functioning as an adequate ball-handler and good defender? It's a big ask.
How many minutes can we buy with Battle and/or Howard off the floor?
Sidibe's injury led to Dolezaj at center and, in a pinch, it can probably work for a stretch against many teams. Washington has looked fine when he's gotten an opportunity, but JB has yet to trust HW with much responsibility. What would be awesome is if we get to a point where Washington could buy each of those guys a couple minutes off the floor each game. There is no question they are going to log a boatload of minutes, but if HW can provide some decent contributions from time to time, that would be a bonus.
Can we finish the rest of the OOC slate strong?
4-0 vs. G'town, Buffalo, Bona and E. Mich would be huge for a team that has struggled OOC for a bit. G'town Saturday is a huge first step but it's winnable. I would venture a guess that Bona might be every bit as tough and Buffalo is trickier than it sounds. If I had to gamble I'd say 3-1 but a 4-0 finish would put this team in a really nice spot (obviously) heading into conference play. If they did somehow manage to get to 12-1 then 9-9 in conference play would seem like a no-brainer NCAA tourney bid. Even 8-10 wouldn't preclude them from at least being in consideration.
Three-point shooting: Is this team as bad as it's looked so far?
So the brutal fact is that this team is currently hitting 28.5% of its threes -- good for 334th out of 351 DI squads. It's awful. But are we actually that bad? Frank's shot looks pretty good to me and I feel OK with him shooting an open three. Not a true 'shooter' I suppose but I'm OK with him shooting. Brissett looks like a better shooter than the way the results have played out. He's probably the key. Dolezaj's shot looks flat, Moyer's looks funky and he's benched any time he shoots it and I don't think we'll see a ton of minutes for washington. So how Brissett/Howard shoot is going to be a huge key for this team moving forward.
Last but not least: We know what Moyer and Dolezaj are now. What are they by the end of Jan/Feb?
Moyer put up 11 and 7 on 4-of-6 shooting, and put up 18 and 8 on 7-of-9 shooting. The rest of the season? 3 FGs. Ouch. Dolezaj has scored 0 points in three of the past six games and has zero FGs in four of the past six games. He put up 10 against MD and has put up five total points in the other five games. Ouch.
So we know neither of these guys is going to be a consistent offensive threat. We also know that Dolezaj has been outstanding while not scoring. If I'm doing a power-ranking of guys on this roster, I'm sliding him in at 4 (since Sidibe has been injured). But it would be really helpful to get a few buckets from time to time. I don't see it from Moyer this year b/c I think he's really trying to adjust to the style of play and the level of competition. The best bet is Dolezaj potentially getting a bit more aggressive on offense. He's not going to be a double-figures scorer, but can we get a few buckets a game out of him on 50% shooting?
Adapt or die: How will JB tweak the zone?
There is a ton of data -- anecdotal and legit statistical data -- to suggest that college is following the NBA into a 3-point heavy era. The attempt rate had gone from 31% to 35% across college basketball from 2010 to 2016, but I would guess there will be a significant jump again this year as 241 of 351 are at at least 35% this season. Anecdotally, we've seen Colgate shoot basically 70% of it's shots from three and two individuals get red hot and win or nearly win a game on their own (Graham and Heurter).
To be fair to JB, it's not like he hasn't noticed. We've already seen one adjustment the past couple years as the wings play much higher with the ball at the top of the key effectively turning the zone into more of a 2-2-1, and then it shifts into almost a 3-2 when the ball swings to a wing.
So there is a segment that will argue we need to ditch the zone but it's not like playing man exclusively inherantly solves that problem. So the question that remains is this: Do we need to adapt more to continue to play exclusively zone? It's a legit question b/c we played OK in the zone last season once we figured out our rotation, got White on the wing and came together as a team. This year we're holding opponents to 61 ppg on .385 shooting overall. That said, we're surrendering 9+ made threes per game and allowing teams to shoot 35% -- a little higher than ideal.
My humble suggestion is that I'd love to see the zone get a bit more aggressive at the point of attack. I used to love when MCW or Andy Rautins would hound the ball outside the three-point line beyond the top of the key. Feel it takes away that straight-away long-range three and perhaps forces teams inside the three-point line a bit more often and disrupts the general flow of the offense (Heurter and Graham in particular shot deep, but largely uncontested threes from that spot all night). Also think we need our centers to cheat an extra step to get to the corner three and get our back-side guys gambling a bit more collapsing down close to the lane when they anticipate that pass.
Anyway, I"m not a coach. I don't see any reason the zone is any less equipped than M2M to handle three-point shooting teams but I do agree that we may need to see some more tweaks since not only are teams more comfortable shooting from out there, but thye also are more comfortable shooting from deep.
Can Frank Howard win over the haters?
So Frank had an atrocious game against UConn and, quite frankly, he's probably going to have a few more as he's not an ideal PG and he struggles against physical defenders -- especially smaller, quicker but still physical guys. Having said that, the guy half this board was hoping would transfer is averaging 15 and 6 and hitting 77% of his free throws. Struggling a bit from the field, but consider this: Howard has 54 assists on the year. The rest of the team combined? 60. Some of that has to do with struggles shooting the ball and lack of quality scorers. But the bottom line is we need frank desperately: can he be the second (or third depending on Brissett) scoring option on this team, while functioning as an adequate ball-handler and good defender? It's a big ask.
How many minutes can we buy with Battle and/or Howard off the floor?
Sidibe's injury led to Dolezaj at center and, in a pinch, it can probably work for a stretch against many teams. Washington has looked fine when he's gotten an opportunity, but JB has yet to trust HW with much responsibility. What would be awesome is if we get to a point where Washington could buy each of those guys a couple minutes off the floor each game. There is no question they are going to log a boatload of minutes, but if HW can provide some decent contributions from time to time, that would be a bonus.
Can we finish the rest of the OOC slate strong?
4-0 vs. G'town, Buffalo, Bona and E. Mich would be huge for a team that has struggled OOC for a bit. G'town Saturday is a huge first step but it's winnable. I would venture a guess that Bona might be every bit as tough and Buffalo is trickier than it sounds. If I had to gamble I'd say 3-1 but a 4-0 finish would put this team in a really nice spot (obviously) heading into conference play. If they did somehow manage to get to 12-1 then 9-9 in conference play would seem like a no-brainer NCAA tourney bid. Even 8-10 wouldn't preclude them from at least being in consideration.
Three-point shooting: Is this team as bad as it's looked so far?
So the brutal fact is that this team is currently hitting 28.5% of its threes -- good for 334th out of 351 DI squads. It's awful. But are we actually that bad? Frank's shot looks pretty good to me and I feel OK with him shooting an open three. Not a true 'shooter' I suppose but I'm OK with him shooting. Brissett looks like a better shooter than the way the results have played out. He's probably the key. Dolezaj's shot looks flat, Moyer's looks funky and he's benched any time he shoots it and I don't think we'll see a ton of minutes for washington. So how Brissett/Howard shoot is going to be a huge key for this team moving forward.
Last but not least: We know what Moyer and Dolezaj are now. What are they by the end of Jan/Feb?
Moyer put up 11 and 7 on 4-of-6 shooting, and put up 18 and 8 on 7-of-9 shooting. The rest of the season? 3 FGs. Ouch. Dolezaj has scored 0 points in three of the past six games and has zero FGs in four of the past six games. He put up 10 against MD and has put up five total points in the other five games. Ouch.
So we know neither of these guys is going to be a consistent offensive threat. We also know that Dolezaj has been outstanding while not scoring. If I'm doing a power-ranking of guys on this roster, I'm sliding him in at 4 (since Sidibe has been injured). But it would be really helpful to get a few buckets from time to time. I don't see it from Moyer this year b/c I think he's really trying to adjust to the style of play and the level of competition. The best bet is Dolezaj potentially getting a bit more aggressive on offense. He's not going to be a double-figures scorer, but can we get a few buckets a game out of him on 50% shooting?
