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[QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 1225428, member: 78"]
you don't even need statistical models here, this one is common sense.

if you convert a 4th and 1, the drive you would need to win the game is 40 yards shorter.

think of it this way.  say you're at the 40 yard line with 1 second left and you're down 2.  ref gives you two choices.  you can throw the hail mary.  or you can flip a coin - heads you can win with a FG attempt, tails the game is over.

everyone would say flip the coin.  50% coin flip times 50% chance of hitting the FG is 25% chance of winning.  There is no way you have a 1 in 4 chance of a hail mary.

the 4th and 1 call is kind of like that coin flip.  you're taking a 50/50 chance in order to save 40 yards later.  the only difference is the 4th and 1 coin flip is a couple minutes earlier than the hypothetical one

no one is using a statistical model here to figure out how to extend the game - my point is that their goal is all wrong.  extend vs win.

if a coach has a model that tells him that a FG actually does increase their win probability, i'm all ears.  but they're not even asking that question.  it's just about delaying definitively losing, which isn't a good objective
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