1. Triche--need him to step up and be consistent 15-17 ppg scorer. He has the tools, despite what some believe
2. MCW--big shoes to fill as lead guard. Can he take care of the ball and facilitate half court sets?
3. C.J. Fair--my projection as the team's second leading scorer, needs to take next step shooting / ball handling
4. James Southerland--as either starter or 6th man, needs to provide consistent scoring / shooting and take on bigger role
5. DaJuan Coleman--has to provide low post scoring to balance offense, and better rebounding than Fab
6. Rakeem Christmas--needs to rebound better for us not to be victimized on boards, and make the sophomore jump
7. Cooney--will play a ton as 3rd guard. Needs to provide more than just shooting
8. Baye Keita--had coming out party 2nd weekend of NCAAs--can he be more consistent?
9. Jerami Grant--love the potential, I envision him playing MCW-type of minutes next year
A couple thoughts first:
1 -- good thought on a summer time post but I agree, "least afford to lose" isn't a huge thing for me b/c I think any key starter poses a pretty big potential loss in almost any year.
2 -- That so many people have Triche so high on their lists surprises me in that I think we absolutely know what we have in him and have seen who he is. If he is a more consistent spot up shooter and can quicken his release it would help but I really think he is who he is.
3 -- I'll rank 'x factors' in terms of being guys we don't know a lot about who could help with this season.
The givens (ranked in no particular order)
1) Fair -- I sorta feel like he could be an x factor if he came back a more polished scorer, but I think we can bank on him to improve his game, lead this team in minutes, contribute in a ton of ways and, in all likelihood, score 15 a game (he scored 8.5 despite dion and kj taking the bulk of the shots).
2) Triche -- I'd love to see him be a more consistent spot up shooter and be more consistent overall, but I agree he's a nice player and key piece of the puzzle. I just don't think we'll see more than 12-13 a game. The key will be how efficiently he does that. People keep talking about how his minutes will go up but tend not to mention that he was losing minutes b/c Scoop was a significantly better lead guard and Dion was a much more dangerous/dynamic threat on both ends. Triche is very solid but he is what he is and if he's looked to to score 17 a game, we are in trouble, IMO.
3) BMK -- I'd love to see him get some minutes at the 4 if DC can provide some minutes at the 5 b/c I think he'd be a nightmare defensively for teams. But ultimately he's a big guy with below-average hands, average arm-length and not a lot of heft. Really nice player for stretches but unlikely to be a 30+ mpg breakout guy.
4) Southerland -- I'm tempted to throw dirty into the x factor pile since he clearly has athleticism, but I think it's fine to predict improvement and a solid contribution from him and it's unlikely that he'll have a major breakout year. What might be interesting is if he can handle a few minutes here and there at the two and/or shoot more consistently.
5) Grant -- Grant should be in the x factor role since we don't know anything about him, but I'm going to put him here b/c I think it's pretty unlikely he jumps Fair/Southerland/Xmas for a huge number of minutes in meaningful games as a true frosh. I admit I could be way off.
X Factors (ranked in order of most important/highest upside)
1) MCW -- Questions about MCW handling the PG spot are unnecessary, IMO, in that he was a good player this year as a frosh and is only likely to get better. To me the question is how much better. I really see him as a guy who could be a nightmare on both ends of the floor and dynamic in the open floor/unsettled situations. Does he get there? I don't know but I think he has huge potential.
2) Xmas -- The forgotten man, IMO, in this whole discussion. I really think he showed way more on the offensive end than anyone here expected. He uses his body well, has terrific athleticism, and even has a move or two up his sleeve. I really think he could be a guy that could potentially do one of two things -- take a giant leap forward and be a 27 mpg guy who provides some offense down low, real good rebounding and nice size in general or a guy who ends up losing minutes in key games to Southerland/Fair/DC/Keita. I'm not sure which guy we end up seeing.
3) Cooney -- Cooney will get minutes, obviously, and the reports are certainly pretty good on him. We know nothing really about him but if he's a consistent shooter with a quick release and at least adequate on the defensive end, is there any reason to suggest he couldn't cut into triche's minutes?
4) DC -- Needs to be in shape but I would love to have a post scoring option even if it's for 10-12 mpg. Can he do that?