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Message: [QUOTE="IthacaMatt, post: 3045502, member: 405"] Of course it's a crap shoot with every kid. There are no guarantees in life. But 4 star and 5 star talent has a better chance of excelling, even taking all those risks into consideration. Talent does matter, and it is discernible. Three star klds are all over the map in terms of whether they will be contributors (probably 50/50), but 4 star kids are probably 60-70%, all things considered, and 5 stars are probably 80%+ that they will be contributors. [/QUOTE]