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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4958889, member: 1969"]
No it's not.   I appeared to have misread his post.   I thought he was countering my post to our chances of going 10-0 , by saying we have 0% chance of going undefeated because of Bell and Taylor.   And I was like OK, 0% and 0.05% - same freaking thing,

But it appears he is talking about tournament chances and not the 10-0 that I was discussing in my post.

Our chances of getting to the tourney are greater than 0.05%.   Obviously chances of going 7-3 or 8-2 are better than 10-0 -- guessing lesser than 20% for 7, and around 5% for 8 based on educated guesses.    Was looking for the Barttorvik probabilities on his site of getting 7 wins -- and I'm sure its there, I just can't find it in all his stuff.

But I think if you look at the probabilities of us getting 7 and 8 wins, you can probably back into a tourney estimate figure... take 35% of the probability we get to 7, take like 90% of the probability we go 8-2, and that is the estimate I would give... hint, its not good.
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