Reminder - the five elements of winning.

[Crusty]

These points have been said many times for CFB and the NFL. They never change.

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

 

[orangeinohio]

You sure the five elements aren't dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge?

 

[rocklloyd]

Isnt that what the S&P+ ratings are? I just read about them recently.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

These points have been said many times for CFB and the NFL. They never change.

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

If you score more points don't you win, like, 99% of the time?

 

[dollarbill44]

If you score more points don't you win, like, 99% of the time?

I think it's actually only 97.5% off the time.

 

[dollarbill44]

These points have been said many times for CFB and the NFL. They never change.

[*]If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
[*]If you win the efficency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
[*]If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
[*]If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
[*]If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

So, what your saying is, "win every aspect and you will likely win"? I've been taking copious notes and I just want to make sure I get the main point.

 

[Crusty]

So, what your saying is, "win every aspect and you will likely win"? I've been taking copious notes and I just want to make sure I get the main point.

Well...no it means that some things are more important than others.I'll take explosive plays and you can have TO margin.

 

[texascpa]

Well...no it means that some things are more important than others.I'll take explosive plays and you can have TO margin.

I'll take TO margin, as that seems to be working with this team.

 

[TheCusian]

I'll take TO margin, as that seems to be working with this team.

This team has both

 

[RMH44]

If you score more points don't you win, like, 99% of the time?

Not always...just ask Toledo.

 

[All4SU]

I'm surprised #s 4 and 5 aren't higher percentages than 72% and 73%.

 

[javadoc]

These points have been said many times for CFB and the NFL. They never change.

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

Are those numbers for fbs or nfl?

 

[retro44]

You only have to be 3% smarter than the ball to win 99.9% of the time.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Not always...just ask Toledo.

First time for everything.

Using Toledo and the 1%ers in the same sentence...

 

[KaiserUEO]

These points have been said many times for CFB and the NFL. They never change.

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

to do that...is illegal in 9 countries, so you know its good.

60% of the time, it works everytime.

 

[Crusty]

Are those numbers for fbs or nfl?

FBS but they are the same for NFL. Brian Billick did a video on it some time ago. That is where I first saw these. Some other writers have adopted them as their own.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

I'm surprised #s 4 and 5 aren't higher percentages than 72% and 73%.

For all those stats just "winning" isn't a big deal. If you at -1 in TO it won't have a huge impact. If you are -2 though it most likely will. If your average start is the 25 and your opponent the 30, then it won't be significant. But if it is the 20 vs the 40 it will.

Also you have to consider that in college football these stats have less meaning because of the talent gap between teams. In the NFL there is very little separating the teams so it is harder to overcome bad stats as opposed to college.

IMO it is harder to use statistical analysis in the college game.

 

[chakka3421]

My take is we don't give enough credit to special teams. To me that's a controllable that we have been lacking for a very long time. Our kick offs seem to land at the end zone or 1 yard in, our coverage has been great, our punts have been huge, and we have had decent punt & kickoff returns - field position is something we can practice on and for whatever reason it's working this year.