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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 3315733, member: 1969"]
What ultimately kills us is that we are 6-11 in Q1+Q2 games.  (in another thread I showed how this was well behind all other P5+BE bubble teams that are in or really close to in)

Teams have 11, 12 or 13 losses.   But they have more than 6 wins... most have 9 or more, or a few more Q1 wins, or a much better win %.   Also the average quality of those 6 wins is not that high either.

You can say the ACC limited us in our opportunity as there was too many Q3 games in the ACC compared to other power conferences.   But realistically we could have overcome that by having a better win% in Q1+Q2 games.  we hurt ourselves more by simply going 6-11 in those games (the whiff in the OOC, the ACC home losses).  Two wins in those games and we overcome the drag caused by the ACC, and are in the bubble mix right now

Realistically we need to win the next 3 games to even see where (if) we stand as a bubble team, and to get more information around us.   It's hard to estimate when the gap is as big as it is now.

If we look at the "Bubble Index", the market for the bubble teams has been strong for the past few weeks.  The bubble has played well, which increases the target line.   Yesterday was the first day in the market in a while that there was a clear blip, when 3 teams above the line played and they all lost.
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