SWC75
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I recently heard a discussion on the radio as to who was the outstanding rookie quarterback in the NFL: Was it Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. What about Russell Wilson? One commentator thought it was clears Andrew Luck with his amazing comebacks and the fact that his team is 9-4 and apparently headed for the playoffs. But Washington, (7-6), and Seattle, (8-5), might make the playoffs, as well. The other commentator suggested the firs tone look at the numbers. He might re-asses his position that Luck out-ranked RGIII and Wilson. I did look at the numbers:
Luck has completed 295 of 537 passes (54.9%) for 3792 yards, (12.9 per completion and 7.1 per attempt) for 18 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. I learned my lesson with Johnny Manziel. Here are Luck’s rushing numbers: 49 carries 223 yards (4.6) 5TDs. He’s also been sacked 32 times for 194 yards. He’s also lost 8 fumbles.
Griffin has completed 233 of 351 passes (66.4) for 2906 yards, (12.5 per completion, 8.3 per attempt) for 18TDs and only 4 interceptions. He has run the ball 112 times for 748 yards, (6.7) and 6 scores. He’s been sacked 28 times for 191 yards and lost 7 fumbles.
Wilson has completed 208 of 330 passes (63.0) for 2492 yards, (12.0, 7.6) for 20TDs and 9 interceptions. He’s run the ball 69 times for 310 yards, (4.5) but no touchdowns. He’s been sacked 24 times for 152 yards and lost 3 fumbles.
Let’s look at some other rookies who were handed the keys to the car this year:
Brandon Weeden has completed 264 of 463, (57.0) for 3037 yards (11.5/6.6) for 13TDs and 15 interceptions. He’s run the ball 23 times for 98 yards, (4.0) and no scores. He’s been sacked 24 times for 159 yards and has lost 3 fumbles. His team is 5-8.
Ryan Tannehill has completed 227 of 396, (57.3) for 2709 yards (11.9/6.8) for 8TDs and 12 interceptions. He’s run the ball 33 times for 107 yards, (3.2) and 2 scores. He’s been sacked 25 times for 186 yards and has lost 6 fumbles. His team is also 5-8.
Nick Foles has completed 113 of 184, (61.4) for 1174 yards (10.4/6.5) for 4TDs and 3 interceptions. He’s run the ball 5 times for 27 yards, (5.4) and 1 score. He’s been sacked 14 times for 104 yards and has lost 4 fumbles. His team is 1-3 since he became the starter.
Ryan Lindley has completed 58 of 120, (48.3) for 507 yards (8.7/4.2) for 0TDs and 5 interceptions. He’s run the ball 2 times for -1 yards, (-0.5) and no scores. He’s been sacked 9 times for 69 yards and has lost 2 fumbles. His team is 0-2 since he took over.
Looking at these numbers, it becomes pretty obviously that RGIII is the top rookie quarterback of 2012. It’s equally obvious that Russell Wilson is #2 and Andrew Luck is third.
But it needn’t be so complicated. The primary skill required of a quarterback is passing, (although his other contributions, including reading the defense, getting his team into the right play and blocking schemeand even his runnign ability are very important and, in fact, help him get to those passing numbers). The bottom line stats for a passer are touchdowns and interceptions. He needs to keep the ball in his teams possession and to get it to someone into the end zone or on his way there. The other numbers are only important insofar as they help him to do that. So here are the bottom line stats:
Robert Griffin III 18-4, Russell Wilson 20-9, Andrew Luck 18-18, Brandon Weeden 13-15, Ryan Tannehill 8-12, Nick Foles 4-3, Ryan Lindley 0-2. A pretty good ranking.
Or, if you do the math, Griffin +14, Wilson +11, Foles +1, Luck 0, Lindley and Weeden -2 and Tannehill -4. I don’t like that list as much because Luck is surely better than Foles and Weeden better than Lindley. Maybe if we drop the rookie QB’s who haven’t thrown at least 10 TD passes: Griffin +14, Wilson +11, Luck 0, Weeden -2. That’s better.
But it still seems to under-rate Luck. I suspected that he is still having an historically great rookie season, even if Griffin and Wilson have clearly been better. I also wondered how this rookie class of QBs compared to others, including the legendary 1983 class. I also wondered how well top rookies did the next year. Naturally, I had to look that up. Here are all the rookie quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, the AAFC and the AFL who had had at least 10 TD passes in their rookie year:
1933 Harry Newman, Giants 11TD 17int (11-17) next: 1-12
1942 Charlie O’Rourke, Bears 11-16 (as a back-up to Sid Luckman). Next: war service then, in 1946, 12-14 for the Los Angles Dons of the AAFC.
1945 Bob Waterfield, Rams 14-17 next: 17-17
1946 Frankie Albert, 49ers (AAFC) 14-14 next: 19-15
1946 Paul Governali, Boston Yanks, (an NFL team, believe it or not) 13-10 next: 17-22 for two NFL teams.
1946 Otto Graham, Browns (AAFC) 17-5 next: 25-11
1946 Bob Hoernschemeyer, Chicago Rockets 14-14 (AAFC) next: 4-11 with 2 AAFC teams.
(The guys who began their careers in 1945-46 tended to be ex-servicemen who had played football in the service and were in their mid-twenties)
1947 George Ratterman, Bills (AAFC) 22-20 next: 16-22
1948 Charlie Conerly, Giants 22-13 next: 17-20
1948 Y.A. Tittle, Colts (AAFC) 16-9 next: 14-18
(The AAFC guys were starting their careers in what amounted to an expansion league but after the war everybody was basically starting over.)
1951 Bob Celeri, New York Yanks (Also an NFL team) 12-15 next: 3-3 for the Dallas Texans, (who became the modern Colts)
1952 Eddie LeBaron, Redskins 14-15 next: 3-17
1952 Babe Parilli, Packers 13-17 next: 4-19
1955 George Shaw, Colts 10-19 next: 3-7, (he was replaced by Johnny Unitas in Baltimore and alter by Fran Tarkington in Minnesota, just as Steve DeBerg later lost his job to Joe Montana and then John Elway).
1958 M.C. Reynolds, Cardinals 11-11 next: 4-1
1960 Tom Flores, Raiders (AFL) 12-12 next: 15-19
1960 Johnny Green, Bills (AFL) 10-10 next: 6-5
1960 Butch Songin, Patriots (AFL) 22-15 next: 14-9
(The early AFL guys were also in a new league but one that was clearly inferior to the NFL. Most of them were older guys who had been playing in Canada. Songin was a 36 year old “rookie”who had won a Grey Cup with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.)
1961 Sam Etcheverry, Cardinals 14-11 next: 2-10
(Sam was another former CFL legend who was age 31 when he joined the Cardinals.)
1961 Norm Snead, Redskins 11-22 next: 22-22
1961 Fran Tarkington, Vikings 18-17 next: 22-25
1962 John Hadl, Chargers (AFL) 15-24 next: 6-6
1963 Mickey Slaughter, Broncos (AFL) 12-15 next: 3-11
1965 Joe Namath, Jets (AFL) 18-15 next: 19-27
1966 Randy Johnson, Falcons 12-21 next: 10-21
1967 Bob Griese, Dolphins 15-18 next: 21-16
1970 Dennis Shaw, Bills 10-20 next: 11-26
1971 Jim Plunkett, Patriots 19-16 next: 8-25
1974 Tom Owen, 49ers 10-15 next: 1-2
1975 Steve Bartkowski, Falcons 13-15 next 2-9
1975 Steve Grogan, Patriots 11-18 next 18-20
1976 Jim Zorn, Seahawks 12-27 next: 16-19
1979 Jeff Komlo, Lions 11-23 next: 0-1
1979 Phil Simms, Giants 13-14 next: 15-19
1980 David Woodley, Dolphins 14-17 next: 12-13
1983 Dan Marino, Dolphins 20-6 next: 48-17
(John Elway was 7-14, Oliver Luck 8-13, Todd Blackledge 3-0,Gary Kubiak 1-1, Tony Eason 1-5, Ken O’Brien 0-0. Jim Kelly went to the USFL
1984 Warren Moon, Oilers 12-14 next: 15-19
(Moon was 27 when the season started: he’d led the Edmonton Eskimos to a record 5 consecutive Grey Cup wins.)
1986 Jim Kelly, Bills 22-17 next: 19-11
(Kelly was 26 and had been setting records in the USFL for two years)
1988 Mark Rypien, Redskins 18-13 next: 22-13
1991 Neil O’Donnell, Steelers 11-7 next: 13-9
1993 Rick Mirer, Seahawks 12-17 next: 11-7
1995 Kerry Collins, Panthers 14-19 next: 14-9
1996 Tony Banks, Rams 15-15 next: 14-13
1998 Charley Batch ,Lions 11-6 next: 13-7
1998 Peyton Manning ,Colts 26-28 next: 26-15
1999 Tim Couch, Browns 15-13 next: 7-9
1999 Jeff Garcia, 49ers 11-11 next: 31-10
2001 Chris Weinke, Panthers 11-19 next: 0-3
(Weinke had started as a baseball player- he played for the Syracuse Chiefs at one time. He was age 29 as a rookie)
2002 Marc Bulger, Rams 14-6 next: 22-22
2002 Joey Harrington, Lions 12-16 next: 17-22
2003 Byron Leftwich, Jaguars 14-16 next: 15-10
2004 Carson Palmer, Bengals 18-18 next: 32-12
2004 Ben Roethlesberger, Steelers 17-11 next: 17-9
2006 Jason Campbell, Redskins 12-6 next: 10-6
2006 Matt Leinhart, Cardinals 11-12 next: 2-4
2006 Vince Young, Titans 12-13 next: 9-17
2008 Joe Flacco, Ravens 14-12 next: 21-12
2008 Matt Ryan, Falcons 16-11 next: 22-14
2009 Josh Freeman, Buccaneers 10-18 next: 25-6
2009 Mark Sanchez, Jets 12-20 next: 17-13
2009 Matthew Stafford, Lions 13-20 next: 6-1
2010 Sam Bradford, Rams 18-15 next: 6-6
2011 Andy Dalton, Bengals 20-13 next: 25-14 (so far)
2011 Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars 12-11 next: 9-6 (so far)
2011 Christian Ponder, Vikings 13-13 next: 14-12 (so far)
2011 Cam Newton, Panthers 21-17 next: 16-10 (so far)
2012 Robert Griffin, III Redskins 18-4 (so far)
2012 Andrew Luck, Colts 18-18 (so far)
2012 Brandon Weeden, Browns 13-15 (so far)
2012 Russell Wilson, Seahawks 20-9 (so far)
It’s interesting that we are getting more and more rookie quarterback starters. It’s often said that more quarterbacks come into college form high school ready to start because the preparation they get in high school and in camps has gotten so much better. That and the increased emphasis on passing in the college game also makes more of them pro-ready.
There are some great names of this list but at least as many missing. Many of the best quarterbacks were not immediately thrust into the line-up and many who were, (see John Elway), were not very successful at first. Of the 70 rookie quarterbacks listed 27 threw more TDs passes in their second year than their first and 33 of them had a better TD-interception ratio. Otto Graham, Bob Griese, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Joe Namath, Fran Tarkington and Bob Waterfield are Hall of Famers. But 21 other Hall of Fame quarterbacks are not on the list.
Here are the top 10 touchdown totals for rookie quarterbacks:
1) Peyton Manning 26
2) Charlie Conerly, Jim Kelly, George Ratterman, Butch Songin 22
6) Cam Newton 21
7) Dan Marino, Andy Dalton 20
9) Jim Plunkett 19
10) Sam Bradford, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Joe Namath, Carson Palmer, Mark Rypien, Fran Tarkington 18
If you subtract the interceptions from the touchdown passes, the top ten looks like this:
1) Robert Griffin III, (for now) and Dan Marino 14
3) Otto Graham 12
4) Russell Wilson 11 (for now)
5) Charlie Conerly 9
6) Marc Bulger 8
7) Andy Dalton, Butch Songin and Y.A.Tittle 7
10) Jason Campbell and Ben Roethlesberger 6
I’d have to say that luck is having a very productive first year but Griffin and Wilson are having historically great rookie seasons.
Luck has completed 295 of 537 passes (54.9%) for 3792 yards, (12.9 per completion and 7.1 per attempt) for 18 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. I learned my lesson with Johnny Manziel. Here are Luck’s rushing numbers: 49 carries 223 yards (4.6) 5TDs. He’s also been sacked 32 times for 194 yards. He’s also lost 8 fumbles.
Griffin has completed 233 of 351 passes (66.4) for 2906 yards, (12.5 per completion, 8.3 per attempt) for 18TDs and only 4 interceptions. He has run the ball 112 times for 748 yards, (6.7) and 6 scores. He’s been sacked 28 times for 191 yards and lost 7 fumbles.
Wilson has completed 208 of 330 passes (63.0) for 2492 yards, (12.0, 7.6) for 20TDs and 9 interceptions. He’s run the ball 69 times for 310 yards, (4.5) but no touchdowns. He’s been sacked 24 times for 152 yards and lost 3 fumbles.
Let’s look at some other rookies who were handed the keys to the car this year:
Brandon Weeden has completed 264 of 463, (57.0) for 3037 yards (11.5/6.6) for 13TDs and 15 interceptions. He’s run the ball 23 times for 98 yards, (4.0) and no scores. He’s been sacked 24 times for 159 yards and has lost 3 fumbles. His team is 5-8.
Ryan Tannehill has completed 227 of 396, (57.3) for 2709 yards (11.9/6.8) for 8TDs and 12 interceptions. He’s run the ball 33 times for 107 yards, (3.2) and 2 scores. He’s been sacked 25 times for 186 yards and has lost 6 fumbles. His team is also 5-8.
Nick Foles has completed 113 of 184, (61.4) for 1174 yards (10.4/6.5) for 4TDs and 3 interceptions. He’s run the ball 5 times for 27 yards, (5.4) and 1 score. He’s been sacked 14 times for 104 yards and has lost 4 fumbles. His team is 1-3 since he became the starter.
Ryan Lindley has completed 58 of 120, (48.3) for 507 yards (8.7/4.2) for 0TDs and 5 interceptions. He’s run the ball 2 times for -1 yards, (-0.5) and no scores. He’s been sacked 9 times for 69 yards and has lost 2 fumbles. His team is 0-2 since he took over.
Looking at these numbers, it becomes pretty obviously that RGIII is the top rookie quarterback of 2012. It’s equally obvious that Russell Wilson is #2 and Andrew Luck is third.
But it needn’t be so complicated. The primary skill required of a quarterback is passing, (although his other contributions, including reading the defense, getting his team into the right play and blocking schemeand even his runnign ability are very important and, in fact, help him get to those passing numbers). The bottom line stats for a passer are touchdowns and interceptions. He needs to keep the ball in his teams possession and to get it to someone into the end zone or on his way there. The other numbers are only important insofar as they help him to do that. So here are the bottom line stats:
Robert Griffin III 18-4, Russell Wilson 20-9, Andrew Luck 18-18, Brandon Weeden 13-15, Ryan Tannehill 8-12, Nick Foles 4-3, Ryan Lindley 0-2. A pretty good ranking.
Or, if you do the math, Griffin +14, Wilson +11, Foles +1, Luck 0, Lindley and Weeden -2 and Tannehill -4. I don’t like that list as much because Luck is surely better than Foles and Weeden better than Lindley. Maybe if we drop the rookie QB’s who haven’t thrown at least 10 TD passes: Griffin +14, Wilson +11, Luck 0, Weeden -2. That’s better.
But it still seems to under-rate Luck. I suspected that he is still having an historically great rookie season, even if Griffin and Wilson have clearly been better. I also wondered how this rookie class of QBs compared to others, including the legendary 1983 class. I also wondered how well top rookies did the next year. Naturally, I had to look that up. Here are all the rookie quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, the AAFC and the AFL who had had at least 10 TD passes in their rookie year:
1933 Harry Newman, Giants 11TD 17int (11-17) next: 1-12
1942 Charlie O’Rourke, Bears 11-16 (as a back-up to Sid Luckman). Next: war service then, in 1946, 12-14 for the Los Angles Dons of the AAFC.
1945 Bob Waterfield, Rams 14-17 next: 17-17
1946 Frankie Albert, 49ers (AAFC) 14-14 next: 19-15
1946 Paul Governali, Boston Yanks, (an NFL team, believe it or not) 13-10 next: 17-22 for two NFL teams.
1946 Otto Graham, Browns (AAFC) 17-5 next: 25-11
1946 Bob Hoernschemeyer, Chicago Rockets 14-14 (AAFC) next: 4-11 with 2 AAFC teams.
(The guys who began their careers in 1945-46 tended to be ex-servicemen who had played football in the service and were in their mid-twenties)
1947 George Ratterman, Bills (AAFC) 22-20 next: 16-22
1948 Charlie Conerly, Giants 22-13 next: 17-20
1948 Y.A. Tittle, Colts (AAFC) 16-9 next: 14-18
(The AAFC guys were starting their careers in what amounted to an expansion league but after the war everybody was basically starting over.)
1951 Bob Celeri, New York Yanks (Also an NFL team) 12-15 next: 3-3 for the Dallas Texans, (who became the modern Colts)
1952 Eddie LeBaron, Redskins 14-15 next: 3-17
1952 Babe Parilli, Packers 13-17 next: 4-19
1955 George Shaw, Colts 10-19 next: 3-7, (he was replaced by Johnny Unitas in Baltimore and alter by Fran Tarkington in Minnesota, just as Steve DeBerg later lost his job to Joe Montana and then John Elway).
1958 M.C. Reynolds, Cardinals 11-11 next: 4-1
1960 Tom Flores, Raiders (AFL) 12-12 next: 15-19
1960 Johnny Green, Bills (AFL) 10-10 next: 6-5
1960 Butch Songin, Patriots (AFL) 22-15 next: 14-9
(The early AFL guys were also in a new league but one that was clearly inferior to the NFL. Most of them were older guys who had been playing in Canada. Songin was a 36 year old “rookie”who had won a Grey Cup with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.)
1961 Sam Etcheverry, Cardinals 14-11 next: 2-10
(Sam was another former CFL legend who was age 31 when he joined the Cardinals.)
1961 Norm Snead, Redskins 11-22 next: 22-22
1961 Fran Tarkington, Vikings 18-17 next: 22-25
1962 John Hadl, Chargers (AFL) 15-24 next: 6-6
1963 Mickey Slaughter, Broncos (AFL) 12-15 next: 3-11
1965 Joe Namath, Jets (AFL) 18-15 next: 19-27
1966 Randy Johnson, Falcons 12-21 next: 10-21
1967 Bob Griese, Dolphins 15-18 next: 21-16
1970 Dennis Shaw, Bills 10-20 next: 11-26
1971 Jim Plunkett, Patriots 19-16 next: 8-25
1974 Tom Owen, 49ers 10-15 next: 1-2
1975 Steve Bartkowski, Falcons 13-15 next 2-9
1975 Steve Grogan, Patriots 11-18 next 18-20
1976 Jim Zorn, Seahawks 12-27 next: 16-19
1979 Jeff Komlo, Lions 11-23 next: 0-1
1979 Phil Simms, Giants 13-14 next: 15-19
1980 David Woodley, Dolphins 14-17 next: 12-13
1983 Dan Marino, Dolphins 20-6 next: 48-17
(John Elway was 7-14, Oliver Luck 8-13, Todd Blackledge 3-0,Gary Kubiak 1-1, Tony Eason 1-5, Ken O’Brien 0-0. Jim Kelly went to the USFL
1984 Warren Moon, Oilers 12-14 next: 15-19
(Moon was 27 when the season started: he’d led the Edmonton Eskimos to a record 5 consecutive Grey Cup wins.)
1986 Jim Kelly, Bills 22-17 next: 19-11
(Kelly was 26 and had been setting records in the USFL for two years)
1988 Mark Rypien, Redskins 18-13 next: 22-13
1991 Neil O’Donnell, Steelers 11-7 next: 13-9
1993 Rick Mirer, Seahawks 12-17 next: 11-7
1995 Kerry Collins, Panthers 14-19 next: 14-9
1996 Tony Banks, Rams 15-15 next: 14-13
1998 Charley Batch ,Lions 11-6 next: 13-7
1998 Peyton Manning ,Colts 26-28 next: 26-15
1999 Tim Couch, Browns 15-13 next: 7-9
1999 Jeff Garcia, 49ers 11-11 next: 31-10
2001 Chris Weinke, Panthers 11-19 next: 0-3
(Weinke had started as a baseball player- he played for the Syracuse Chiefs at one time. He was age 29 as a rookie)
2002 Marc Bulger, Rams 14-6 next: 22-22
2002 Joey Harrington, Lions 12-16 next: 17-22
2003 Byron Leftwich, Jaguars 14-16 next: 15-10
2004 Carson Palmer, Bengals 18-18 next: 32-12
2004 Ben Roethlesberger, Steelers 17-11 next: 17-9
2006 Jason Campbell, Redskins 12-6 next: 10-6
2006 Matt Leinhart, Cardinals 11-12 next: 2-4
2006 Vince Young, Titans 12-13 next: 9-17
2008 Joe Flacco, Ravens 14-12 next: 21-12
2008 Matt Ryan, Falcons 16-11 next: 22-14
2009 Josh Freeman, Buccaneers 10-18 next: 25-6
2009 Mark Sanchez, Jets 12-20 next: 17-13
2009 Matthew Stafford, Lions 13-20 next: 6-1
2010 Sam Bradford, Rams 18-15 next: 6-6
2011 Andy Dalton, Bengals 20-13 next: 25-14 (so far)
2011 Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars 12-11 next: 9-6 (so far)
2011 Christian Ponder, Vikings 13-13 next: 14-12 (so far)
2011 Cam Newton, Panthers 21-17 next: 16-10 (so far)
2012 Robert Griffin, III Redskins 18-4 (so far)
2012 Andrew Luck, Colts 18-18 (so far)
2012 Brandon Weeden, Browns 13-15 (so far)
2012 Russell Wilson, Seahawks 20-9 (so far)
It’s interesting that we are getting more and more rookie quarterback starters. It’s often said that more quarterbacks come into college form high school ready to start because the preparation they get in high school and in camps has gotten so much better. That and the increased emphasis on passing in the college game also makes more of them pro-ready.
There are some great names of this list but at least as many missing. Many of the best quarterbacks were not immediately thrust into the line-up and many who were, (see John Elway), were not very successful at first. Of the 70 rookie quarterbacks listed 27 threw more TDs passes in their second year than their first and 33 of them had a better TD-interception ratio. Otto Graham, Bob Griese, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Joe Namath, Fran Tarkington and Bob Waterfield are Hall of Famers. But 21 other Hall of Fame quarterbacks are not on the list.
Here are the top 10 touchdown totals for rookie quarterbacks:
1) Peyton Manning 26
2) Charlie Conerly, Jim Kelly, George Ratterman, Butch Songin 22
6) Cam Newton 21
7) Dan Marino, Andy Dalton 20
9) Jim Plunkett 19
10) Sam Bradford, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Joe Namath, Carson Palmer, Mark Rypien, Fran Tarkington 18
If you subtract the interceptions from the touchdown passes, the top ten looks like this:
1) Robert Griffin III, (for now) and Dan Marino 14
3) Otto Graham 12
4) Russell Wilson 11 (for now)
5) Charlie Conerly 9
6) Marc Bulger 8
7) Andy Dalton, Butch Songin and Y.A.Tittle 7
10) Jason Campbell and Ben Roethlesberger 6
I’d have to say that luck is having a very productive first year but Griffin and Wilson are having historically great rookie seasons.
