Room for Statistical Improvement - Offense

[Louie and Bouie]

In regard to the offensive output to this point in the season we have all seen flashes of what this offense can do when it is running efficiently. It is fast and exciting and can score quickly. The major issue, based upon statistical analysis, is that the offense is not scoring enough touchdowns/points to couple with the pace and yardage gained based upon the up-tempo spread scheme. We have achieved the pace part of the equation without question. Below are the areas where the offense has underperformed statistically on an national basis. I believe if we improve on these numbers and rankings that we will see the product Dino has envisioned and will become the team we want to become in the W-L column.

My defensive statistical posting was done under a different heading. Feel free to comment on the numbers with analysis or thoughts if you are so inclined.

Areas for offensive statistical improvement (through 8 games):

Run Game - Although much improved of late our % of total yards via rushing play is 35.30% which is 101st in the nation. Our rush yards per attempt is 3.86 which is 95th nationally. Our overall yards per play is 5.27 which ranks us 90th in the nation.

Pass Game - Fun and explosive at times, there has been an inability to consistently stretch the field which is reflected by our pass yards per attempt at 6.59 which is 97th nationally and by our lack of explosive plays (TD of 20+ yards) where we rank 71st nationally. Our overall yards per play is 5.27 which ranks us 90th in the nation.

QB Protection - The number of sacks allowed per game is 3.13 which is one sack per 15.32 pass attempts which is 81st in the country.

Yards Gained on 1st Down - Our average yards gained on 1st down is 4.80 which is 119th nationally. This is a big issue as no offense wants to play behind the chains on 2nd and 3rd down.

Penalties - Offensively, we average a penalty every 20.50 plays which is 87th nationally.

Scoring - What everything boils down to at the end of the day. Our Red Zone TD% is 47.20% which is 113th nationally. Our point per possession (unadjusted) is 2.07 (69th nationally) is leading to 29.75 points per game (57th nationally). At around 15 possessions per game I believe that about 7-10 more points per game (35-40 ppg desired) at this pace is achievable and necessary to build a winner with this offensive scheme. Just have to get all the pieces working together more consistently.

Disclaimer: This post is not a knock on the staff, players, or scheme. I support all of them. Its simply information at the 3/4 pole of the season to see where we are statistically deficient in performance.

 

[UnknownOrange]

Yards per play doesn't concern me as much because 90th in the country looks bad but #1 in tempo so yards per GAME puts us at 34th nationally. Room for improvement for sure.

If we gained .5 yards MORE per play we would be sitting at 500 yards of total offense per game which would tie us for 12th with Alabama.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Good post. Another one which to me is almost the most poignant stat...Turnover Margin. We are 101 in the country. Tied with Cincinnati. 14 turnovers lost. Shows you how hard this team fights and how good the coaching staff is to be in these games against tough competition. Dungey is a warrior, tough SOB, and a true gamer but he makes some poor decisions. Not just him. Young teams will do that. Still, proud of how this team fights. We’re getting there.

 

[RF2044]

Not to oversimplify, but I'm guessing that improved play at OL would significantly address your top 5 bullets (including the reduction in penalties).

 

[SoBristol]

Good post. Another one which to me is almost the most poignant stat...Turnover Margin. We are 101 in the country. Tied with Cincinnati. 14 turnovers lost. Shows you how hard this team fights and how good the coaching staff is to be in these games against tough competition. Dungey is a warrior, tough SOB, and a true gamer but he makes some poor decisions. Not just him. Young teams will do that. Still, proud of how this team fights. We’re getting there.

Agree with all of that, except the comment about "young". We have a junior QB who is a multi-year starter and a fair share of 4th year players. Veterans everywhere in key spots except C and one OG and the DEs are jucos with playing experience. Not sure why we aren't doing better at turnovers but I would not put youth as the reason. Maybe teams that rely on passing, get in tough down/yard situations, are more at risk? And teams that have average CBs don't get picks?

 

[SoBeCuse]

Agree with all of that, except the comment about "young". We have a junior QB who is a multi-year starter and a fair share of 4th year players. Veterans everywhere in key spots except C and one OG and the DEs are jucos with playing experience. Not sure why we aren't doing better at turnovers but I would not put youth as the reason. Maybe teams that rely on passing, get in tough down/yard situations, are more at risk? And teams that have average CBs don't get picks?

Could be. I forget that some of these guys are older like you say. More of the youth is elsewhere. Hard to decipher why.

 

[anomander]

Looking at those statistics it's actually pretty amazing they had been as successful as they have on that side of the ball. Those are some key statistical categories we've been pretty poor. Even so, this offense is still averaging just under 30ppg (57th nationally). I think that shows just how high the ceiling is for this offense.

It's going to be interesting to see how they close the season on that side of the ball. The run game has really improved the last 2 games, which is surprising since we just went up against 2 of the top 5 DL's in the country. Strickland seems like a whole new RB. Babers did say before the Pitt game that he was finally healthy. Coincidence? Or are teams starting to try and take away the pass, daring us to run? I think it's also a little bit of a young offensive line, especially on the interior, gaining experience. I'm very interested to see how we do against normal defenses. I have a feeling this offense is about to kick it into high gear on the backs of a drastically improved run game. It will definitely be interesting.

 

[TheCusian]

Looking at those statistics it's actually pretty amazing they had been as successful as they have on that side of the ball. Those are some key statistical categories we've been pretty poor. Even so, this offense is still averaging just under 30ppg (57th nationally). I think that shows just how high the ceiling is for this offense.

It's going to be interesting to see how they close the season on that side of the ball. The run game has really improved the last 2 games, which is surprising since we just went up against 2 of the top 5 DL's in the country. Strickland seems like a whole new RB. Babers did say before the Pitt game that he was finally healthy. Coincidence? Or are teams starting to try and take away the pass, daring us to run? I think it's also a little bit of a young offensive line, especially on the interior, gaining experience. I'm very interested to see how we do against normal defenses. I have a feeling this offense is about to kick it into high gear on the backs of a drastically improved run game. It will definitely be interesting.

That sounds like my working theory: we have clicked into a higher gear - right at the point where we played two top 10 defenses.

We’ll see.

 

[Newhouser]

Agree with all of that, except the comment about "young". We have a junior QB who is a multi-year starter and a fair share of 4th year players. Veterans everywhere in key spots except C and one OG and the DEs are jucos with playing experience. Not sure why we aren't doing better at turnovers but I would not put youth as the reason. Maybe teams that rely on passing, get in tough down/yard situations, are more at risk? And teams that have average CBs don't get picks?

Good points and I love his fire but ED needs to cut the TO's soon. I am still at a loss as to how an experienced player could have such a deer in headlights look last week in the 1st half. Miami is good but he has played against better D's and managed the game. He looked and played like a punch drunk boxer in the first half, and I don't really understand why.

 

[RMH44]

Good points and I love his fire but ED needs to cut the TO's soon. I am still at a loss as to how an experienced player could have such a deer in headlights look last week in the 1st half. Miami is good but he has played against better D's and managed the game. He looked and played like a punch drunk boxer in the first half, and I don't really understand why.

Maybe because the DL was in his face from the first snap? Btw, he only had 4 int's going into the game...so his turnovers weren't an issue.

 

[Newhouser]

Maybe because the DL was in his face from the first snap? Btw, he only had 4 int's going into the game...so his turnovers weren't an issue.

Disagree a little bit - the pick at LSU played a huge role in that game as did the early pick at NC State (the receiver contributed there). And D-Lines have been in his face every game he's played here - he never had the lost boy look he had Saturday. He is a gamer but 1st half Saturday was odd to see IMHO.