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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1671140, member: 1969"]
You also totally  discounted Monmouth as an large in a prior thread which was not an unreasonable conclusion.  But I think your standards of an at large may be a little high given what will ultimately be out there on Selection Sunday.

The committee is not going to be enamoured with the resumes of any of the last few teams in what is essentially a 70 team field.

If you follow the bubble you realize how weak it is right now, with a big factor being the lack of credible P5 resumes on the outside.    One more win, no matter when, we are in great shape.

Look at what is probably the consensus last 4 out right now:

Tulsa
St Bonnie
Alabama
George Washington

Those teams are not all going to push upwards, and some of the teams that are in (but behind us) are also going to slip up.

There is a gap after those last 4 in as well unless a team like Ohio St, LSU, GTech, goes on a run.

One win is not 100%, because everything may work bad on the outside... but with the normal variability of up and down's, the likely scenario is we are good.
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