Ruminations on the program

[cuseincincy]

I understand the general feeling some fans feel that the program isn't what it once was. And since I am a little bit of a data geek I started looking at the numbers and some are not surprising, some should be alarming. The fact that our downturn in recruiting has coincided with fewer wins isn't really surprising. Below is a graph showing the National Recruiting ranking for all of our top 150 recruits the past 10 years:

The gradual uptick didn't surprise. But when I looked at the names a few things popped out:

• Starting in 2017 I had to increase my range from top 100 to top 150 or a few years would have been blank.
• We had 18 top 150 recruits from 2013-2020.
  • 9 of them transferred.
  • 3 were 1 and dones. 2 left after Soph year.
  • 3 of them were listed as PG prospects. We got 1 good season out of them (Ennis, Joseph, Carey)

You have to give the coaches credit for continuing to win games with all of that attrition among their top recruits. Until you look to define success at Syracuse and see that:

• In JAB's first 38 seasons SU won less than 20 games twice.
• They have won 19 or fewer 6 times in the last 8 seasons.
• During his ridiculous career JAB has averaged 24 wins per season. Over the past 7 the average is 19.

 

[SU94]

I understand the general feeling some fans feel that the program isn't what it once was. And since I am a little bit of a data geek I started looking at the numbers and some are not surprising, some should be alarming. The fact that our downturn in recruiting has coincided with fewer wins isn't really surprising. Below is a graph showing the National Recruiting ranking for all of our top 150 recruits the past 10 years:
View attachment 213192
The gradual uptick didn't surprise. But when I looked at the names a few things popped out:

• Starting in 2017 I had to increase my range from top 100 to top 150 or a few years would have been blank.
• We had 18 top 150 recruits from 2013-2020.
  • 9 of them transferred.
  • 3 were 1 and dones. 2 left after Soph year.
  • 3 of them were listed as PG prospects. We got 1 good season out of them (Ennis, Joseph, Carey)

You have to give the coaches credit for continuing to win games with all of that attrition among their top recruits. Until you look to define success at Syracuse and see that:

• In JAB's first 38 seasons SU won less than 20 games twice.
• They have won 19 or fewer 6 times in the last 8 seasons.
• During his ridiculous career JAB has averaged 24 wins per season. Over the past 7 the average is 19.

I think a lot of the struggles we are all not used are rooted in the fact were were likely the singular program most associated with the Big East. Maybe a co- with Georgetown. Geographically, we were also centrally located within the primary footprint of the Big East. This changed to save our football program. I think it was a tough decision, one that had to be done, but it did have consequences.

Now in the ACC, we are a geographic outliers, a northern bookend along with BC. And yes, we have struggled more than any of us want or desire. Having a legendary coaching career ending is certainly part of that transition.

If the rules around the game hold (NCAA, NIL, paying players, the stature of the ACC) to some reasonable degree, I think the near future is going to be a bit brighter than we have seen over the last, say 4 years, as we make adjustments. Wildhack is a major player in all of this. Even with a new coach, I doubt we ever reach the program heights of the late 80s, 90s, early 2000s and the 5-year run from about 2010-14. The program's remarkable consistency was Boeheim's greatest gift, at least for 40 or so years. That has changed a bit due to the context surrounding the program (the ACC) and college landscape as a whole.

 

[nyucuse]

I think a lot of the struggles we are all not used are rooted in the fact were were likely the singular program most associated with the Big East. Maybe a co- with Georgetown. Geographically, we were also centrally located within the primary footprint of the Big East. This changed to save our football program. I think it was a tough decision, one that had to be done, but it did have consequences.

Now in the ACC, we are a geographic outliers, a northern bookend along with BC. And yes, we have struggled more than any of us want or desire. Having a legendary coaching career ending is certainly part of that transition.

If the rules around the game hold (NCAA, NIL, paying players, the stature of the ACC) to some reasonable degree, I think the near future is going to be a bit brighter than we have seen over the last, say 4 years, as we make adjustments. Wildhack is a major player in all of this. Even with a new coach, I doubt we ever reach the program heights of the late 80s, 90s, early 2000s and the 5-year run from about 2010-14. The program's remarkable consistency was Boeheim's greatest gift, at least for 40 or so years. That has changed a bit due to the context surrounding the program (the ACC) and college landscape as a whole.

It. Has. Literally. Zero. To. Do. With. Conference. Affiliation

 

[goofnoff]

I understand the general feeling some fans feel that the program isn't what it once was. And since I am a little bit of a data geek I started looking at the numbers and some are not surprising, some should be alarming. The fact that our downturn in recruiting has coincided with fewer wins isn't really surprising. Below is a graph showing the National Recruiting ranking for all of our top 150 recruits the past 10 years:
View attachment 213192
The gradual uptick didn't surprise. But when I looked at the names a few things popped out:

• Starting in 2017 I had to increase my range from top 100 to top 150 or a few years would have been blank.
• We had 18 top 150 recruits from 2013-2020.
  • 9 of them transferred.
  • 3 were 1 and dones. 2 left after Soph year.
  • 3 of them were listed as PG prospects. We got 1 good season out of them (Ennis, Joseph, Carey)

You have to give the coaches credit for continuing to win games with all of that attrition among their top recruits. Until you look to define success at Syracuse and see that:

• In JAB's first 38 seasons SU won less than 20 games twice.
• They have won 19 or fewer 6 times in the last 8 seasons.
• During his ridiculous career JAB has averaged 24 wins per season. Over the past 7 the average is 19.

 

[goofnoff]

Thanks for the time it took to put this together.

There are a lot of variables as to why this happened. My major candidate is leaving the Big East for the ACC.

 

[SU94]

It. Has. Literally. Zero. To. Do. With. Conference. Affiliation

I. Happen. To. Disagree.
Sorry. Not. Sorry.
I. Also. Notice. That. The. Big. East. Has. Largely, Passed. The. ACC. The. Last. Few. Years.
Villanova. Basketball. Is. Now. What. Syracuse. Hoops. Used. To. Be. And. Represent.
It. Is. Not. A. Coincidence.

 

[nyucuse]

It. Has. Literally. Zero. To. Do. With. Conference. Affiliation

I will respond to my own statement as I expect some feedback here. The reasons for the decline are several and plain as day, to me at least:

- Our star recruiter who kept players engaged for a couple of decades left
- our head coach entered his eighth decade on this planet and by the year seems to become less and less player friendly, coupling this with the point above, is not a positive development
- we entered probation which limited our ability to send coaches out to recruit, not withstanding the fact that we lost hands down and by far our best recruiter, as noted above
- The head coach insists more year by year on using his starting five, making it increasingly difficult to recruit any sort of depth
- The perceived nepotism, true or not, led to an exodus of multiple quality players off of last year‘s team, which only further exacerbates the problems that are plain as day

I can go on, but you will see each point above has literally nothing to do with the conference, it is the way the program is being run and the lack of a recruiter that has led to our current challenges. I see no way this improves markedly until a new regime is in place.

 

[SU94]

Thanks for the time it took to put this together.

There are a lot of variables as to why this happened. My major candidate is leaving the Big East for the ACC.

It is not the entire "problem," but it is a part of the equation. There is a transition going on here. It has happened for football and lacrosse too.
And don't get me wrong, Syracuse needed to make the move to the ACC. It was the right thing to do for the long-term future of the university and the athletic department.

 

[Nicknack]

I will respond to my own statement as I expect some feedback here. The reasons for the decline are several and plain as day, to me at least:

- Our star recruiter who kept players engaged for a couple of decades left
- our head coach entered his eighth decade on this planet and by the year seems to become less and less player friendly, coupling this with the point above, is not a positive development
- we entered probation which limited our ability to send coaches out to recruit, not withstanding the fact that we lost hands down and by far our best recruiter, as noted above
- The head coach insists more year by year on using his starting five, making it increasingly difficult to recruit any sort of depth
- The perceived nepotism, true or not, led to an exodus of multiple quality players off of last year‘s team, which only further exacerbates the problems that are plain as day

I can go on, but you will see each point above has literally nothing to do with the conference, it is the way the program is being run at the lack of a recruiter that has led to our current challenges. I see no way this improves markedly until a new regime is in place.

Good post, and thanks for taking it easy on the periods.

 

[Bayside44]

I. Happen. To. Disagree.
Sorry. Not. Sorry.
I. Also. Notice. That. The. Big. East. Has. Largely, Passed. The. ACC. The. Last. Few. Years.
Villanova. Basketball. Is. Now. What. Syracuse. Hoops. Used. To. Be. And. Represent.
It. Is. Not. A. Coincidence.

After Jay Wright and Tony Bennett cancel each other out the ACC programs (UNC won it a few years back) just have so much more resource to invest in these programs.

 

[Sherman20]

I understand the general feeling some fans feel that the program isn't what it once was. And since I am a little bit of a data geek I started looking at the numbers and some are not surprising, some should be alarming. The fact that our downturn in recruiting has coincided with fewer wins isn't really surprising. Below is a graph showing the National Recruiting ranking for all of our top 150 recruits the past 10 years:
View attachment 213192
The gradual uptick didn't surprise. But when I looked at the names a few things popped out:

• Starting in 2017 I had to increase my range from top 100 to top 150 or a few years would have been blank.
• We had 18 top 150 recruits from 2013-2020.
  • 9 of them transferred.
  • 3 were 1 and dones. 2 left after Soph year.
  • 3 of them were listed as PG prospects. We got 1 good season out of them (Ennis, Joseph, Carey)

You have to give the coaches credit for continuing to win games with all of that attrition among their top recruits. Until you look to define success at Syracuse and see that:

• In JAB's first 38 seasons SU won less than 20 games twice.
• They have won 19 or fewer 6 times in the last 8 seasons.
• During his ridiculous career JAB has averaged 24 wins per season. Over the past 7 the average is 19.

Having an experienced Hall of Fame coach with decades of winning used to be a huge selling point on the recruiting trail. Now the question is how much of a liability has JB become in recruiting. What have others heard? How much does he make our recruiting more difficult and limit who we can go after and possibly get?

 

[goofnoff]

Thanks for the time it took to put this together.

There are a lot of variables as to why this happened. My major candidate is leaving the Big East for the ACC.

I will respond to my own statement as I expect some feedback here. The reasons for the decline are several and plain as day, to me at least:

- Our star recruiter who kept players engaged for a couple of decades left
- our head coach entered his eighth decade on this planet and by the year seems to become less and less player friendly, coupling this with the point above, is not a positive development
- we entered probation which limited our ability to send coaches out to recruit, not withstanding the fact that we lost hands down and by far our best recruiter, as noted above
- The head coach insists more year by year on using his starting five, making it increasingly difficult to recruit any sort of depth
- The perceived nepotism, true or not, led to an exodus of multiple quality players off of last year‘s team, which only further exacerbates the problems that are plain as day

I can go on, but you will see each point above has literally nothing to do with the conference, it is the way the program is being run and the lack of a recruiter that has led to our current challenges. I see no way this improves markedly until a new regime is in place.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

One thing people don't talk about is the proliferation of AAU games throughout the country along with these basketball factories nationwide as well. It used to be we could just recruit Oak Hill/Philly/DMV or the NE prep schools. Now the local kids are going to Indiana etc for HS and feeling more comfortable playing away from their friends and families. Just look at the list of where the Mickey D's are going. It's not the Big East. For the most part it's everywhere but the ACC/Big East.

Yes, recruiting has changed and our program hasn't changed with it. I like that you spent a lot of time doing the research, but some other people need to take a good hard look at it, not the people in the cheap seats.

 

[nyucuse]

Good post, and thanks for taking it easy on the periods.

I would love to hear one story, even one, of a recruit saying 'ooh Syracuse is really great with its history, giant stadium, cool factor and all but yeah I really don’t wanna play in the ACC'.

It’s a pretty asinine thought to be honest. Kids dream of playing in an environment that size, against the Dukes and UNCs of the world. Just a simplistic and lazy excuse to semi-justify the gradual downturn of the program which is due, in my opinion and that of many others, largely to the points I noted above.

And you are welcome on the periods.

 

[goofnoff]

Note, I said there are a lot of variables involved. I wouldn't argue with any you pointed out. I have always been a Boeheim defender. He should have stepped down before Hop left for the long term good of the program.

 

[capeorange]

The current group of assistants need to shoulder some responsibility for poor talent too.

I'm beginning to wonder if Benny isn't Jalen Carey part 2. Very athletic but can't play the game. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[djcon57]

I really don’t get the Big East commentary going around the boards lately.

it literally wasn’t an option if we wanted to stay in big time college football.

 

[baggerbob]

I. Happen. To. Disagree.
Sorry. Not. Sorry.
I. Also. Notice. That. The. Big. East. Has. Largely, Passed. The. ACC. The. Last. Few. Years.
Villanova. Basketball. Is. Now. What. Syracuse. Hoops. Used. To. Be. And. Represent.
It. Is. Not. A. Coincidence.

The ACC is a southern conference, North Carolina, Duke, NC State, Virginia, Florida St, Georgia Tech. We are a footnote in this conference, we have no history in the ACC.

 

[goofnoff]

I really don’t get the Big East commentary going around the boards lately.

it literally wasn’t an option if we wanted to stay in big time college football.

You think what we're putting out there is big time college football?

 

[djcon57]

You think what we're putting out there is big time college football?

non sequitur

 

[CuseFaninVT]

You think what we're putting out there is big time college football?

And if we had stayed in the Big East I think the thought is that we'd be heading toward even worse. Like D2 category.

 

[djcon57]

And if we had stayed in the Big East I think the thought is that we'd be heading toward even worse. Like D2 category.

we don’t have to imagine. It’s UConn football

 

[NKR1978]

I. Happen. To. Disagree.
Sorry. Not. Sorry.
I. Also. Notice. That. The. Big. East. Has. Largely, Passed. The. ACC. The. Last. Few. Years.
Villanova. Basketball. Is. Now. What. Syracuse. Hoops. Used. To. Be. And. Represent.
It. Is. Not. A. Coincidence.

The Big East has 2 Championships/Final Fours since the realignment - both Villanova.

The ACC has 3 championships - Duke, UNC and Virginia
Runner up - UNC
Final Four - Syracuse

Has the Big East really been better?

 

[NKR1978]

The ACC is a southern conference, North Carolina, Duke, NC State, Virginia, Florida St, Georgia Tech. We are a footnote in this conference, we have no history in the ACC.

Do you think kids who were 9 (or younger) when we left the BE care? No one thinks of the ACC as a "Southern" conference.

 

[goofnoff]

I would love to hear one story, even one, of a recruit saying 'ooh Syracuse is really great with its history, giant stadium, cool factor and all but yeah I really don’t wanna play in the ACC'.

It’s a pretty asinine thought to be honest. Kids dream of playing in an environment that size, against the Dukes and UNCs of the world. Just a simplistic and lazy excuse to semi-justify the gradual downturn of the program which is due, in my opinion and that of many others, largely to the points I noted above.

And you are welcome on the periods.

It's not a question of not playing in the ACC. It's a question of wanting to play in the BE. An enormous share of the top talent comes from the BE cities.