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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3034834, member: 289"] I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”. The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.052. That’s better than Bryce Harper 0.878) but not as good as Ryon Healy (1.082). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,052 times. He didn’t do something 1.052 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games. My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do? The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs produced”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game. That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat. This year I’ve decided to add a few other stats, one of which will allow me to evaluate pitchers, too. The first one I’m calling “clutch percentage”. I’m aware that many people in baseball don’t think there is such a thing as clutch hitting. I don’t agree: I watch the games and it is completely apparent that it’s not just what you do but when you do it that counts. I’m a Mets fan and noticed that Wilson Ramos was, by most measures, having a poor season:.247 batting average, .313 on base percentage, .303 slugging percentage. But he had 17 RBIs compared to 27 total bases. Divide the RBIs by total bases and his bat is driving in 63% as many runs as it’s procuring based. Mike Trout has 16 RBIs on 48 batting bases, 33%. It’s very early and the numbers can change greatly but so far Ramos would seem to be a better clutch hitter than Trout. I’ve always wanted to do something to evaluate pitchers. When I look at a box score, (and I’ve had occasion lately to look at Mets box scores to try to figure out the pitching), I look at the ‘BF’ (batters faced) on Baseball Reference.com. Then I look at hits, walks and hit batsmen to get the number of baserunners that were the pitcher’s fault. I divide that by the BF to get the percentage of batters that get on base off the pitcher. Then I look at earned runs and compare that to the number of these ‘earned’ baserunners. What percentage of them scored? Last year Jacob DeGrom faced 835 batters, 203 of whom reached base from hits, walks or being plunked. That’s 24.3%, or .243. That was best in the national league and second best in the majors to Justin Verlander of the Astros who had .241. Jake allowed 421 earned runs from those 203 earned baserunners, or .202, the best in the majors, (Blake Snell and Trevor Bauer led the AL .215. My data base is the top 50 players in each league in runs scored and runs batted in and the top 50 pitchers in innings pitched. For the batters, ties are broken first by games played, the n by plate appearances, (the fewer of each you have, the more impressive your gross bases and runs produced are. The more you have the more impressive a clutch percentage is: you’ve maintained it longer). Pitching ties are broken by innings pitched, (the more innings you’ve pitched, the more impressive a low rate of giving up baserunners and runs is.) If there is a tie for 10th place all those tied will be listed. AFTER MAY AL Bases Produced Mike Trout, Angels 161 in 53 games (3.04) and 236 plate appearances (.682) Alex Bregman, Astros 153 in 56 games (2.73) and 246 plate appearances (.622) Joey Gallo, Rangers 151 in 49 games (3.08) and 212 plate appearances (.712) Jorge Polanco, Twins 150 in 53 games (2.83) and 237 plate appearances (.633) George Springer, Astros 148 in 48 games (3.08) and 216 plate appearances (.685) Mookie Betts, Red Sox 148 in 56 games (2.64) and 259 plate appearances (.571) Whit Merrifield, Royals 146 in 57 games (2.56) and 258 plate appearances (.566) Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 146 in 56 games (2.61) and 247 plate appearances (.591) Matt Chapman, Athletics 144 in 57 games (2.53) and 246 plate appearances (.585) Carlos Santana, Indians 141 in 56 games (2.52) and 239 plate appearances (.590) Comments: Trout, Springer and Betts are by now familiar faces. Bregman is becoming one. Santana and Merrifield are in their 30’s but the others are all ages 23-26, meaning they haven’t quite reached their prime next. Of special interest is Joey Gallo, who had been a poster child for the “all or nothing at all” approach but seems to have realized that the number of times they hit the ball and how often they get on base are still important. Joey Gallo’s lifetime batting average going into this season was .2013. It’s not .213 as he’s hitting .276. He’s also walked 42 times, giving him an on base percentage of .421. His slugging percentage is now .653 instead of .498, his SP though his first four seasons, despite years of 41 and 40 home runs. He’s on a pace for 43 home runs and 104 RBIs and runs scored, which would both be career highs. He’s only 25 and is just learning this game. We can expect to see him at or near the top of a lot of lists in the future. Runs Produced Eddie Rosario, Twins 71 in 54 games (1.31) and 229 plate appearances (.310) Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 71 in 56 games (1.27) and 247 plate appearances (.287) Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 70 in 54 games (1.30) and 243 plate appearances (.288) George Springer, Astros 67 in 48 games (1.40) and 216 plate appearances (.310) Rafael Devers, Red Sox 64 in 56 games (1.14) and 239 plate appearances (.268) Joey Gallo, Rangers 63 in 49 games (1.29) and 212 plate appearances (.297) Alex Gordon, Royals 63 in 54 games (1.17) and 233 plate appearances (.270) Mookie Betts, Red Sox 63 in 56 games (1.125) and 259 plate appearances (.243) Jose Abreu, White Sox 63 in 57 games (1.11) and 245 plate appearances (.257) DJ LeMahieu, Yankees 62 in 51 games (1.22) and 221 plate appearances (.281) Whit Merrifield, Royals 62 in 57 games (1.09) and 258 plate appearances (.240) Comments: The Red Sox are having a shaky year but they still have plenty of people on these lists. Rosario is young, (27) and has speed and power, although his triples history is weird: 15 his first year, 7 in the four years since. Clutch Percentage Josh Phegley, Athletics 33 RBI from 68 batting bases = .485 Profar Jurickson, Athletics 31 RBI from 70 batting bases = .4428571 Hunter Pence, Rangers 39 RBI from 88 batting bases = .4431818 Asdrubal Cabrera, Rangers 31 RBI from 71 batting bases = .437 Jose Abreu, White Sox 50 RBI from 115 batting bases = .435 Mitch Moreland, Red Sox 34 RBI from 82 batting bases = .415 Eddie Rosario, Twins 49 RBI from 119 batting bases = .412 Domingo Santana, Mariners 42 RBI from 105 batting bases = .400 Justin Smoak, Blue Jays 31 RBI from 80 batting bases = .3875 Alex Gordon, Royals 38 RBI from 99 batting bases = .384 Comments: Any Josh Phegley or Profar Jurickson fans out there? The Mets wish they had held on to Asdrubal Cabera. One thing I don’t like about baseball is that when teams fall from contention, they start offering their players to the highest bidder. If the Buffalo bills are 4-8 after 12 games, their fans expect them to try their darndest to go 8-8. In baseball, well, they start wondering how the Buffalo bills are going to do this year. Pitcher’s On Base Percentage Justin Verlander, Astros 63 baserunners of 302 batters faced = .209 Yonny Chirlinos, Rays 50 baserunners of 210 batters faced = .238 Jake Ordoizzi, Twins 58 baserunners of 229 batters faced = .253 Domingo Germain, Yankees 64 baserunners of 248 batters faced = .258 Gerrit Cole, Astros 75 baserunners of 287 batters faced = .2613240 Felix Pena, Angels 53 baserunners of 203 batters faced = .2610837 Lucas Golito, White Sox 62 baserunners of 235 batters faced = .264 Matthew Boyd, Tigers 79 baserunners of 294 batters faced = .269 Brad Peacock, Astros 66 baserunners of 243 batters faced = .272 Blake Snell, Rays 65 baserunners of 238 batters faced = .273 Comments: Old Man Verlander still has it: he’s averaging 11 strike-outs per 9 innings. Pitcher’s Scoring Percentage Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays 21 earned runs from 92 baserunners = .228 Spencer Turnbull, Tigers 21 earned runs from 91 baserunners = .231 Jake Ordoizzi, Twins 14 earned runs from 59 baserunners = .237 Charlie Morton, Rays 19 earned runs from 79 baserunners = .241 Mike Minor, Rangers 23 earned runs from 92 baserunners = .250 Frankie Montas, Athletics 20 earned runs from 80 baserunners = .250 Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays 25 earned runs from 98 baserunners = .255 John Means, Orioles 17 earned runs from 64 baserunners = .266 Matthew Boyd, Tigers 23 earned runs from 79 baserunners = .2911392 Martin Perez, Twins 25 earned runs from 86 baserunners = .2906976 Comments: This is the stat that made Jacob DeGrom so special last year. That said, of these teams, only the Twins and Rays are in contention. But these ten guys are 49-33 on the season. NL Bases Produced Cody Bellinger, Dodgers 193 in 56 games (3.45) and 254 plate appearances (.760) Josh Bell, Pirates 175 in 56 games (3.125) and 242 plate appearances (.723) Christian Yelich, Brewers 172 in 51 games (3.37) and 222 plate appearances (.775) Nolan Arenado, Rockies 163 in 55 games (2.96) and 248 plate appearances (.657) Trevor Story, Rockies 159 in 56 games (2.84) and 254 plate appearances (.626) Freddie Freeman, Braves 151 in 56 games (2.70) and 250 plate appearances (.604) Rhys Hoskins, Phillies 149 in 56 games (2.66) and 247 plate appearances (.603) Eduardo Escobar, D-Backs 149 in 57 games (2.61) and 252 plate appearances (.591) Kris Bryant, Cubs 145 in 52 games (2.79) and 236 plate appearances (.614) Pete Alonso, Mets 144 in 56 games (2.57) and 231 plate appearances (.623) Comments: Bellinger continues to lap the field for the MVP award. Yelich has fallen back slightly but not by much. But who is Josh Bell? He’s a 26 year old whose batting average has jumped from .261 to .324 and who is leading the league in RBI’s and doubles. No doubt we’ll become familiar with his name the next few years. Runs Produced Cody Bellinger, Dodgers 82 in 56 games (1.46) and 254 plate appearances (.323) Nolan Arenado, Rockies 80 in 55 games (1.45) and 248 plate appearances (.327) Trevor Story, Rockies 79 in 56 games (1.41) and 254 plate appearances (.311) Josh Bell, Pirates 76 in 56 games (1.36) and 242 plate appearances (.314) Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals 75 in 54 games (1.39) and 231 plate appearances (.325) Christian Yelich, Brewers 68 in 51 games (1.33) and 222 plate appearances (.306) Eduardo Escobar, D-Backs 67 in 57 games (1.18) and 252 plate appearances (.266) Anthony Rendon, Nationals 65 in 43 games (1.51) and 186 plate appearances (.349) Kris Bryant, Cubs 65 in 52 games (1.25) and 236 plate appearances (.275) Andrew McCutcheon, Phillies 64 in 56 games (1.14) and 253 plate appearances (.253) Bryce Harper, Phillies 64 in 57 games (1.12) and 250 plate appearances (.256) Comments: It’s nice to see Andrew McCutcheon on the list after his career had hit a lengthy rut. He’s still only 32 and could have some good years left. Anthony Rendon has the best rate of production. Would he have retain3ed that rate if he hadn’t missed 14 games? Maybe. He’s been putting up some numbers: He’s a .300 hitter with 40 double/25hr power and has both scored and driven in 100 runs in a season. Clutch Percentage Wilson Ramos, Mets 31 RBI from 63 batting bases = .492 Colin Moran, Pirates 29 RBI from 63 batting bases = .460 Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals 50 RBI from 110 batting bases = .455 Yadier Molina, Cardinals 33 RBI from 75 batting bases = .440 Howie Kendrick, Nationals 33 RBI from 79 batting bases = .418 Yasiel Puig, Reds 32 RBI from 77 batting bases = .416 Derek Dietrich, Reds 36 RBI from 87 batting bases = .414 Bryce Harper, Phillies 41 RBI from 101 batting bases = .406 Franco Maikel, Phillies 30 RBI from 74 batting bases = .405 Juan Soto, Nationals 38 RBI from 97 batting bases = .392 Comments: Despite a terrible slump in May, old, slow Wilson Ramos continues to lead the majors in using the bases he produces to drive in runs. He’s only hitting .265 with 4 doubles, no triples and 5 home runs but he has 31 RBI’s and is on a pace for 83 RBIs. Pitcher’s On Base Percentage Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers 59 baserunners of 270 batters faced = .219 Chris Paddack, Padres 50 baserunners of 219 batters faced = .228 Zach Greinke, D-Backs 68 baserunners of 294 batters faced = .231 Caleb Smith, Marlins 60 baserunners of 237 batters faced = .253 Stephen Strasburg, Nationals 81 baserunners of 213 batters faced = .259 Joey Lucchesi, Padres 78 baserunners of 252 batters faced = .270 Walker Buehler, Dodgers 67 baserunners of 244 batters faced = .275 Jordan Lyles, Pirates 61 baserunners of 220 batters faced = .277 Kenta Maeda, Dodgers 70 baserunners of 251 batters faced = .279 Luke Weaver, D-Backs 72 baserunners of 254 batters faced = .283 Comments: There’s lots of good pitching out west in the National League this year. Pitcher’s Scoring Percentage Zach Davis, Brewers 15 earned runs from 78 baserunners = .192 Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers 12 earned runs from 59 baserunners = .203 Luis Castillo, Reds 19 earned runs from 82 baserunners = .232 Tanner Roarke, Reds 20 earned runs from 82 baserunners = .238 Zach Elpin, Phillies 22 earned runs from 81 baserunners = .272 Dakota Hudson, Cardinals 26 earned runs from 95 baserunners = .274 Robbie Ray, D-Backs 25 earned runs from 91 baserunners = .275 Max Fried, Braves 22 earned runs from 78 baserunners = .282 Max Scherzer, Nationals 28 earned runs from 96 baserunners = .2916666 Luke Weaver, D-Backs 21 earned runs from 72 baserunners = .2916666 Comments: Zach Davis’ numbers are amazing, (DeGrom was .203 last year), but they are falling, (or expanding). After April, Zach was 5/44, an amazing .114. Since then he’s a down-to-earth 10/34 = .294. [/QUOTE]

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