Rushing D Stats

[TheCusian]

Was working through these numbers and thought about looking at our run D and wondering if it would hurt us again. BC is the obvious choice (if Dillon is healthy, but even if he’s not). But instead of just relying on what I’ve seen this year or on reputation, thought it would be worth it to look at the stats.

Bill C. uses the play by play info from all of the games and teams and tracks efficiency and explosiveness (among a lot of other things). He breaks it down a bunch of ways and it’s a good deep dive if you want to go that route, but I decided to keep it simple. It’s also opponent adjusted - so who you played matters - it’s not just “wow, they ran for 400yds” without asking if it’s against anyone good.


Big takeaways: I’m interested to see how we do against UNC. They are crappy, but can run. Like a worse version of PITT. NC State is remarkably bad at running the ball and have survived on Finley’s arm and a good WR corp (despite McF-it). That game looks a whole lot more winnable that I’d thought. If we suck against UNC vs the run, don’t jump ship completely - because it gets a bit easier later in the season.

Syracuse Rushing Defense
Efficiency: #87
Explosiveness: #115

Rushing O of teams we’ve played (yards per rushing attempt vs Syracuse)

Western Michigan (5.4yds per attempt)
Rushing Efficiency: #107
Rushing Explosiveness: #17

FSU (2.7yds per attempt)
Rushing Efficiency: #120
Rushing Explosiveness: #100

UCONN (4.6yds per attempt)
Rushing Efficiency: #96
Rushing Explosiveness: #60

Clemson (5.5yds per attempt)
Rushing Efficiency: #19
Rushing Explosiveness: #52

PITT (5.6yds per attempt)
Rushing Efficiency: #21
Rushing Explosiveness: #22

Rushing O of teams left on our schedule

UNC
Rushing Efficiency: #44
Rushing Explosiveness: #29

NC State
Rushing Efficiency: #110
Rushing Explosiveness: #120

Wake Forest
Rushing Efficiency: #86
Rushing Explosiveness: #96

Louisville
Rushing Efficiency: #78
Rushing Explosiveness: #93

ND
Rushing Efficiency: #69
Rushing Explosiveness: #53

BC
Rushing Efficiency: #64
Rushing Explosiveness: #28

 

[TheCusian]

Some notes:

-It’s like football canon to know that if we keep them to 3rd and medium/long - a team is in good shape. That’s even more so with us:
3rd and long: #4
3rd and medium: #2
3rd and short: #103

-We’re built to stop teams from passing on us (and this year it’s working, minus some issues with giving up explosive pass plays from time to time). That means playing with a lead. Forcing teams into obvious passing situations.

 

[OrangeTarheel]

Yup. For an offense that can score points we just don't put teams behind the 8 ball and keep them there

 

[UelSU]

Pitt also killed us on 1st down. I think they averaged almost 6 yards on 1st down.

 

[sufandu]

So aside from FSU both crappy running teams and good running teams have had simikar success against us. That does not give me confidence.

 

[djorange1989]

Even if our run D stays crappy (hopefully it somehow gets a bit better), if we play well in the other phases we will get away with it and get a few more wins. we barely lost on the road the last two weeks with crappy run D. in the case of Pitt, if Dungey was even close to being Good Dungey we win the game. So, even if a team like NC runs the ball like Pitt did, we should still take them out, as long as ED isn't playing like garbage. if he is, and the game is tight, gotta go to Tommy.

 

[TheCusian]

So aside from FSU both crappy running teams and good running teams have had simikar success against us. That does not give me confidence.

That yard difference between UCONN and Pitt is big. It’s like 40 spots nationally. Plus, UCONN didn’t run a lot because they were down by a ton most of the game (that big QB run doesn’t help the avg either).

 

[TheCusian]

Even if our run D stays crappy (hopefully it somehow gets a bit better), if we play well in the other phases we will get away with it and get a few more wins. we barely lost on the road the last two weeks with crappy run D. in the case of Pitt, if Dungey was even close to being Good Dungey we win the game. So, even if a team like NC runs the ball like Pitt did, we should still take them out, as long as ED isn't playing like garbage. if he is, and the game is tight, gotta go to Tommy.

Really need to get out to a 2 score lead and not implode vs UNC. Can’t let them stay around.

 

[djorange1989]

Really need to get out to a 2 score lead and not implode vs UNC. Can’t let them stay around.

no doubt, start the way we did vs Pitt and never look back. will be interested to see how NC plays against Tech this weekend. they have run the ball well, but like you said, are otherwise a worse version of Pitt, their passing game is beyond bad, their D stinks. they had a lot of kids serving suspensions, but I think those were being staggered so are there a few that will miss the game against us?