san diego st's new approach

[CusefanATL]

they aren't going to punt if they cross the 50 yard line.

similar to the approach the hs coach from arkansas does.

 

[OrangePA]

Interesting.

 

[Rocco]

That is the equivalent of a naked put in the stock market.

 

[Jake]

Mill house has a new favorite team.

 

[SUinNYC]

Can't say they won't be fun to watch.

 

[Millhouse]

it says alot about the stupidity of the coaching profession that this is revolutionary

i blame concussions.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Wonder how good their FG kicker is? Could be some Tecmo Superbowl style FG attempts with the ball placed on the 50 or maybe they just wont kick at all.

 

[Noexcuse]

Quick kick on 3rd down. Does that count as a punt?

 

[OrangeMojo]

I like it - if you have faith in your defense then it's a good strategy.

 

[StopCoolio]

I'm pretty sure every 11 year old playing video games has the same general strategy.

So let's say they're up 2 points with a little over 2 minutes to go, 4th and 11 from the 49 yard yard line...they're going for it?

 

[JrodCuse]

Statistically it is the proper move from a football standpoint. The TMQ guy on ESPN has been advocating this with statistics for a few years now.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

If they were real men it would be the 40, but this is a move in the right direction.

 

[orangepassion]

At the minimum, teams should always go if it's 4th and 4 or less. It's worth the 20 yards you could give up in field position. Will be interesting to see if it catches on.

 

[upperdeck]

im not sure how statistics can support a strategy that has never really been tried. teams have a limited number of plays that work for down and distance. teams play defense based on what you will do.. 3rd and 8 stop them 2 yds short and they will punt.. knowing they wont punt you dont play for just stopping the 3rd down play , you play more like its 2nd down .. i think inside the 40 it might be a decent strategy but the 50 means means the other team is about 1.5 first downs away from scoring , you have to trust your O and your D.. do we trust ours?

 

[Millhouse]

Statistically it is the proper move from a football standpoint. The TMQ guy on ESPN has been advocating this with statistics for a few years now.

fans have been advocating this with boos every time people punt at the 42 yard line for at least 37 years.

wisdom of crowds works even when the crowd is full of drunks

 

[kingottoiii]

It makes sense as long as it isn't 4th and long.

Last year SD St on 3rd and 1-3 yards to go, averaged 6.17 yards per play. If they were able to get similar on 4th downs then they should go for it with 1-3 yards to go. On 3rd and 4-6 yards to go they averaged 4.92 yards per play. If they were able to produce similar on 4th down, then on average they would convert with 4 yards to go but fail on 5-6 yards to go. Then there is 7-9 yards where they averaged 4.98 yards, and 10+ where they averaged 8.47 yards. In both cases they would fail to convert. So assuming similar results on 4th down, SD St should go for it when they need 4 yards or less. And that's assuming that the added pressure of 4th down doesn't bring those numbers down further.

 

[Millhouse]

they were pretty good at punting average last year. i looked it up expecting to see them at the bottom. maybe they're good at punting average because they smartly avoid the pooch punts.

if it's hard to keep the punt out of the end zone, you shouldn't be punting

 

[Crusty]

That is the equivalent of a naked put in the stock market.

More like a naked short.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

if it's hard to keep the punt out of the end zone, you shouldn't be punting

Yeah, it's a pretty simple idea that hasn't caught on.

 

[kcsu]

The major thing that this does is it allows you to plan in advance for four downs vs three. This in itself is huge. Now 3 yards on first down doesnt mean that you have to throw the ball and the opposing team is put on notice that you now have 3 to get 7 vs 2. This is huge and i believe it is worth the risk. If you get a first down you pretty much know that you will have a shot at a field goal attempt. It does put great pressure on your D to perform but it also shows that you have confidence in your team.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The major thing that this does is it allows you to plan in advance for four downs vs three. This in itself is huge. Now 3 yards on first down doesnt mean that you have to throw the ball and the opposing team is put on notice that you now have 3 to get 7 vs 2. This is huge and i believe it is worth the risk. If you get a first down you pretty much know that you will have a shot at a field goal attempt. It does put great pressure on your D to perform but it also shows that you have confidence in your team.

Just for kicks (pun intended) I'd love to see two coaches agree that in a game neither one will punt under any circumstances. I think it would make the game significantly better.

 

[Stern]

3rd and 20 after a holding penalty with the ball on the 45 let me see this guy not punt!

If he goes for it in those situations a few times he will be out of a job rather quick

 

[SUinNYC]

3rd and 20 after a holding penalty with the ball on the 45 let me see this guy not punt!

If he goes for it in those situations a few times he will be out of a job rather quick

True. Penalties could really destroy this strategy.