SWC75
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Based on the information in my NCAA Seed Stats post, in the average tournament since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985:
- There have been an average of eight upsets on the first round: One each in the 3-14, 4-13, 5-12 and 6-11 games and two each in the 7-10 and 8-9 games.
- One of the 10 seeds and the 12th seed will make it to the Sweet 16.
- The Final Four will consist of two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and either a 3 or a 4 seed.
- The national champion will be a 1 seed.
That doesn’t mean that will happen this year. And it doesn’t tell you which teams will pull off the upsets or which 1, 2 or 3-4 seeds will make to the Final Four or which 1 seed will win. It’s just that if you want to make out you NCAA predictions and still have a life, you can shorten the process by just asking yourself which teams would fulfill the roles described above if this turns out to be an average year. This is about speed and ease. You’ve still got to supply the accuracy.
With that as a background, I’m going to describe my thinking on the subject, for what it’s worth. (The fact that you are getting it for free gives you an idea of what it’s worth.)
3 vs. 14: Syracuse-Western Michigan, Iowa State-North Carolina Central, Creighton-Louisiana Lafayette, Duke-Mercer
It seems obvious to me which of these match-ups is most likely to result in an upset. Syracuse has lost 5 of 7. They can’t seem to shoot straight. Their defense has sprung some leaks. Their confidence has to be shaken. Western Michigan has a mobile big man and a high scoring guard. They’ve won 14 of 16 and crushed Toledo in the MAC title game, 98-77. I’ll just write it in here: Western Michigan over Syracuse in the first round. But a bolt of lightning from the top of the Carrier Dome just struck me: I CAN’T PICK SU TO LOSE IN THE FIRST ROUND!... (even though they’ve done it four times since there has been a round of 64.)
So I have to find someone else to lose in this round. The problem is the other three games are all between teams that like to get out and run and one of my rules of thumb is that if two teams play the same style, pick the one with the most talent. Creighton and Louisiana-Lafayette, (the Rajin’ Cauin’s- they used to be Southwestern Louisiana) are two of the highest scoring teams in the country. But Creighton’s shooters are 6-7 guys and the Cajun’s shooters are 6-3 guys, none of whom is Doug McDermott. North Carolina Central won 28 games, including a 10 point win at NC State and competitive performances at Cincinnati and Wichita State. They’ve won 20 games in a row. But Iowa State buzzed through the Big 12 tournament and that’s probably the best conference in the country. People are talking about Duke vs. Mercer as an upset special. Mercer has a quick, veteran backcourt but no answer for Parker or Hood. And Coach K usually takes care of business in the first round- and does it in a big way, (although they got beat by Lehigh a couple of years ago).
I’m waiting for a bolt of lightning to strike again and tell me who to pick to go down instead of Syracuse. Until it does, I’ll go with NC Central to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones, per Lindy’s preseason magazine were expected to have a hard time matching last year’s 23-12 record. Obviously they did. I suspect they are a little like Virginia in that they really came together as a team and the whole was more than the sum of their parts. In the Big 12 tourney they beat a mediocre Kansas State team, a Kansas team missing a key player and a Baylor team that had been a disappointment this year. Maybe they aren’t quite that good and maybe NCC can pull off the upset here. I sure hope it’s them and not us.
4 vs. 13: UCLA-Tulsa, Michigan State-Delaware, San Diego State-New Mexico State, Louisville-Manhattan.
Rick Pitino is not losing to a protégé and Louisville is not losing to Manhattan. Not they way they are playing. People are talking about Delaware’s high scoring guards but I’ve also read that they “operate best when they drive to the basket and draw fouls”. Not through Tom Izzo’s defense. UCLA has tremendous size with two 6-10 twins, the Wears and 6-9 Kyle Anderson who can play guard or forward. Their best player is a 6-5 guard named Jordan Adams. That seems like too much for Tulsa.
San Diego State is interesting. They thought they were going to the Big East for football and the Big west for basketball, (which tells you something about the state of college basketball). The Big West is normally a one-bid conference so Steve Fisher beefed up his non-conference schedule only to see the Big East deal fall through , forcing them to stay in the much tougher Mountain West and giving them the toughest schedule they have ever played. But they aced it at 29-4. They played competitively vs. Arizona and beat Creighton, Marquette and Kansas. They are the real deal. New Mexico State is most famous for their 7-5 360 pound center, Sim Bhullar who next year will be joined by his 7-3 brother Tanveer, who is redshirting. Bhlullar is one of four double figure scorers on the Aggies, led by 6-2 Daniel Mullings at 16.8ppg. The Aggies are a running team, despite Bhullar’s bulk, the Aztecs more of a defensive team that might slow it down, which could help the massive Bhullar. SDS lost their conference title game to New Mexico 58-64 while NMS beat Idaho 77-55. Earlier they lost to New Mexico by 9.
I don’t really see any of the 13 seeds winning but since I have to pick one, I’ll pick the one with the 7-5 guy. New Mexico State bumps off San Diego State.
5 vs 12: Virginia Commonwealth-Stephen . Austin, Cincinnati-Harvard, Oklahoma-North Dakota State, St. Louis –North Carolina State or Xavier.
VCU is a live by the sword/ die by the sword pressing team. They used it to get to the Final Four in 2011 and Shaka Smart was a genius. His IQ seemed to be in a slump when they got crushed by Trey Burke and Michigan, 53-78 last year. SFA is the team we beat in the first round in 2009. They couldn’t handle our athletic big men. VCU has a good one in Juvante Reddic. The Lumberjacks are much better than they were when we beat them. They are 31-2 and have won 28 games in a row by an average of 16 points. They are coached by former Frank market assistant Brad Underwood, so you know they play defense. They are also 8th in the nation in assists with 16.6 per game but nobody averaged more than 3.5 a game. But five guys average at least 1.8 assists. This team passes the ball well. They average 11 turnovers a game.
Harvard is a popular upset pick over Cincinnati, who split their last 8 games. Cincy is an excellent defensive team that gets much of it’s scoring from its star, Sean Kilpatrick, (20.7ppg). Harvard has five players in double figures and a sixth at 9.3. They upset New Mexico last year, shutting down their star, Tony Snell. But the bearcats clearly play in a stronger conference.
North Dakota State and Delaware are my favorite small college football schools. Both have very good basketball teams this year. NDS had 5 starters back from a 24-10 team last year. This year they are 25-6 and have won 14 of 15. They beat Notre Dame but then lost to Ohio State by 17. Oklahoma is a young team dependent on outside shooting. They are actually somewhat similar to NDS, just less experienced but probably more talented.
St. Louis, like Syracuse, stumbled into the tournament, having lost 4 of 5 after a sterling 22-2 start. They will play the winner of a game between Xavier, who is nursing some injuries and NC State who, as we know, have been playing very well and who has what we lack: a stud who can carry the team in TJ Warren.
I can see an upset in all these match-ups. I have to settle on one. Michigan State and Louisville are looming as 4 seeds for Harvard or NC State, (who I think will beat Xavier), and a red-shot UCLA team is the 4th seed opposite Stephen . Austin so I’ll go with North Dakota State to top Oklahoma and then beat New Mexico State.
6 vs. 11: Ohio State- Dayton, North Carolina- Providence, Baylor- Nebraska, Massachusetts-Iowa or Tennessee
It’s interesting seeing major conference teams in the play-in games. Ohio State-Dayton jumps out at you because it’s another game where the NCAA “Accidentally” has paired two teams from the same state who haven’t played each other. Ohio State started 15-0, then went 10-9. People say they can’t score based on a 48-39 win over Illinois and 53-63 loss to Illinois but they were 60+ in all their other games. And they play fanatical defense led by Aaron craft, the sort of player you’d love to have but hate to play against. Dayton has impressed people, (including JB in Hawaii) at times and disappointed at other times, including a 4 game losing streak in mid-season. They like to press but I think Craft can handle it.
North Carolina has plenty of size and talent as always. They looked terrible when they lost 4 of 5 to begin the ACC schedule. They then ripped off 11 in a row before Duke and Pittsburgh cooled them off. Providence was the surprise winner of the Big Tournament after a 20-11, 10-8 regular season. I don’t like surprise conference tournament winners in the NCAAs.
Baylor-Nebraska. The SWC vs. the Big Eight….I mean the Big 10 vs. the Big 12…I mean the Big 12 vs. the Big 10. Baylor has size, speed and talent and lost only to Syracuse in their first 13 games. Then they had an awful 2-7 stretch but turned it around with 10 wins in 11 games before losing to Iowa State in the Big 12 final. Nebraska also had a good stretch, 8 wins in 9 games before losing to Ohio State in the Big 10 tournament. Baylor is better and besides that their uniforms will blind the Cornhusker shooters.
UMASS: Julius Erving and John Cailpari. But they aren’t there anymore. After a 15-1 start, they were 9-7 down the stretch. They have size up front but a tiny backcourt: 5-9 and 60-. I don’t like tiny backcourts. Iowa and Tennessee have similar records at 20-12 vs. 21-12 and even similar teams, (both are among the top 20 rebounding teams in the country). Both have high scoring 6-6 swingmen: Roy Marble and Jordan Stokes. The difference is the direction they have been going. Iowa is in a 1-6 free fall while Tennessee won 6 of 7 before giving Florida all they handle in the SEC tournament.
This one’s easy: Tennessee will beat Iowa and Massachusetts. (Easy doesn’t make it right but I am looking for easy.) Why aren’t the play in games for the 16th and 15th seeds, rather than 16, 12 and 11?
7 vs. 10: New Mexico-Stanford, Connecticut-St. Joseph’s, Oregon-BYU, Texas-Arizona State
New Mexico and Stanford are similar teams, with dynamic, high scoring point guards Kendall Williams and Chesson Randle and a couple of good big men each. Like Iowa and Tennessee, they have been going in opposite directions. The Lobos are on a 20-3 run and beat San Diego State for the Mountain West title. Stanford is on a 9-7 run and got blown out by 25 vs. UCLA in the Pac 12 tournament.
It’s interesting that Connecticut has now become a perimeter team. They always had strong guard play but they had a bunch of NBA types inside as well. Now it’s all about Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatwright. DeAndre Daniels and Niels Giffey are good too, but they are 6-8 and 6-7. St Joes’ shocked everyone by winning the A10 tournament and have a great guard of their own in Langston Galloway. But he doesn’t have as much help as Napier.
Oregon-BYU is a rematch of a 100-96 game form December. (Remember 100-96 games? Now we have 100-96 weeks). These are the third and 11th highest scoring teams in the country. BYU played a strong non-conference schedule, beating Stanford and Texas and losing to Iowa State, Wichita State and Massachusetts in competitive games. Tyler Hawes is doing a nice Jimmer Fredette imitation with 23.4ppg. Oregon is another team that got blown out by UCLA in the Pac 12 tourney.
Both Texas and Arizona State have made comebacks, Texas from its first losing season under Rick Barnes and ASU from a stretch four year absence from the tournament, (remember when James Harden looked like he couldn’t play a lick?). Texas doesn’t have any big stat players but went 11-7 in the tough Big 12. The Wildcats have one of the most exciting players in the country in 5-10 Jahli Carson, who has averaged 18+ both as a freshman and sophomore and put 40 points on UNLV. They also split with Arizona, beating them 69-66 in OT the last time they played. But they have lost their last 3 games.
I need two upsets at this level so I’m going with BYU and ASU.
8 vs. 9: Colorado-Pittsburgh, Memphis-George Washington, Gonzaga-Oklahoma State, Kentucky- Kansas State
I’m not sure why Pitt is a 9 seed. They have the better record at 25-9 to 23-11, are in as good a conference, have been playing very well and Colorado is missing their star point guard, Spencer Dinwiddie, which has pulled the plug on their offense. This is an easy “upset” pick.
Both Memphis and George Washington are rebuilding, (in GW’s case it’s more ‘building’). The Tigers are using freshmen, the Colonials transfers. That makes Memphis the younger but probably more talented team. They are also the colder team, going 7-5 down the stretch and looking bad in a 53-72 loss to Connecticut in the conference tourney. GW had won 4 in a row before losing in the A-10 toruney to VCU but it was by a similar score, 55-72. That’s how you get in an 8-9 game.
Very simply, Oklahoma State wouldn’t be in an 8-9 game if Marcus Smart had not been suspended. His suspension as part of a 7 game losing streak in February that nearly destroyed the Cowboy’s season. But that streak included two overtime losses and three other losses by 6 points or less. When Smart returned, the team started winning again and are 5-2 since with both losses in overtime to Iowa State and Kansas, teams that got 3 and 2 seeds, respectively in this tournament. Gonzaga isn’t nearly the team that got a #1 seed last year and finished 32-3. They went 28-6 this year but did it in a much inferior conference.
Kentucky was talking 40-0 to start the season. They now find themselves in an 8-9 game. Naturally they have a lot of talent but for the second straight year, it hasn’t meshed. They could get to 30-10 if they win the national championship. They were a 5-5 team down the stretch. But K-State seems like just what the doctor ordered: a rebuilding team that wasn’t a powerhouse to begin with and is 20-12 and has lost its last 3 games.
I see three upsets here but the historical average is two so I will go with Pitt and Kentucky, neither of whom should have been seeded this low.
In the Round of 32
According to “The Plan”, the #12 seed (ND State) and one of the #10 seeds make it to the Sweet 16 and then lose. BYU would face Wisconsin and Arizona State would face Michigan. Those are the Big Ten’s two top teams, (before Michigan State got healthy and beat them both in the conference tourney). Both games will be in Milwaukee, so it’s a virtual home game for Wisconsin. But I like BYU more than Arizona State and will go with them to knock off Wisconsin.
The Final Four
Now let’s look at the other end of the telescope: who do I think will be in the Final Four? I need two one seeds, a 2 seed and a 3 or 4 seed.
The last is the easiest. Louisville is the defending national champion. They beat the #1 seed in their region in the Final Four last year and this year they are taking no prisoners down the stretch, winning their last 5 games by an average of 29 points. Everybody agrees their seed was ridiculous. I figured them for the Final Four before I even looked at the brackets and I’ll stick with that.
But that also knocks out everybody’s favorite, (at ESPN anyway), Michigan State. The comment we kept hearing is that the talking head is “going with my original prediction”. I agree with the notion that these experts wanted to validate their original predictions. I’m sure they are very good but I like Louisville better. That opens that region up for a Virginia team that’s been playing some of the best basketball in the country for two months, winning 17 of 18 and both the ACC regular season and tournament championships. They will be one of the #1’s. I’m not impressed with the #2 in that region, Villanova.
Wisconsin was the #2 seed the west region so I’ve got to go with Arizona there. That leaves me with Kansas in the south region, which could happen if Embied comes back.
That gives me Virginia vs. Kansas in one semi-Final and Louisville vs. Arizona in the other. Virginia’s had a great run but if Embeid is back, Kansas has too much size and talent for them. Louisville has made its recent run despite having lost their two best big men Dieng and Behanan from last year’s team. Montrezl Harrell is having a good year but the Cardinals are mostly a perimeter team and I think they may have peaked in the conference tournament. It’s hard to repeat as national champion: Florida’s the only one I the last 20 years. I takes a great team with everybody back and I don’t see the Cardinals that way. That makes it a Kansas-Arizona final and Arizona is the 1 seed, so they win it.
The rest is chalk.
- There have been an average of eight upsets on the first round: One each in the 3-14, 4-13, 5-12 and 6-11 games and two each in the 7-10 and 8-9 games.
- One of the 10 seeds and the 12th seed will make it to the Sweet 16.
- The Final Four will consist of two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and either a 3 or a 4 seed.
- The national champion will be a 1 seed.
That doesn’t mean that will happen this year. And it doesn’t tell you which teams will pull off the upsets or which 1, 2 or 3-4 seeds will make to the Final Four or which 1 seed will win. It’s just that if you want to make out you NCAA predictions and still have a life, you can shorten the process by just asking yourself which teams would fulfill the roles described above if this turns out to be an average year. This is about speed and ease. You’ve still got to supply the accuracy.
With that as a background, I’m going to describe my thinking on the subject, for what it’s worth. (The fact that you are getting it for free gives you an idea of what it’s worth.)
3 vs. 14: Syracuse-Western Michigan, Iowa State-North Carolina Central, Creighton-Louisiana Lafayette, Duke-Mercer
It seems obvious to me which of these match-ups is most likely to result in an upset. Syracuse has lost 5 of 7. They can’t seem to shoot straight. Their defense has sprung some leaks. Their confidence has to be shaken. Western Michigan has a mobile big man and a high scoring guard. They’ve won 14 of 16 and crushed Toledo in the MAC title game, 98-77. I’ll just write it in here: Western Michigan over Syracuse in the first round. But a bolt of lightning from the top of the Carrier Dome just struck me: I CAN’T PICK SU TO LOSE IN THE FIRST ROUND!... (even though they’ve done it four times since there has been a round of 64.)
So I have to find someone else to lose in this round. The problem is the other three games are all between teams that like to get out and run and one of my rules of thumb is that if two teams play the same style, pick the one with the most talent. Creighton and Louisiana-Lafayette, (the Rajin’ Cauin’s- they used to be Southwestern Louisiana) are two of the highest scoring teams in the country. But Creighton’s shooters are 6-7 guys and the Cajun’s shooters are 6-3 guys, none of whom is Doug McDermott. North Carolina Central won 28 games, including a 10 point win at NC State and competitive performances at Cincinnati and Wichita State. They’ve won 20 games in a row. But Iowa State buzzed through the Big 12 tournament and that’s probably the best conference in the country. People are talking about Duke vs. Mercer as an upset special. Mercer has a quick, veteran backcourt but no answer for Parker or Hood. And Coach K usually takes care of business in the first round- and does it in a big way, (although they got beat by Lehigh a couple of years ago).
I’m waiting for a bolt of lightning to strike again and tell me who to pick to go down instead of Syracuse. Until it does, I’ll go with NC Central to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones, per Lindy’s preseason magazine were expected to have a hard time matching last year’s 23-12 record. Obviously they did. I suspect they are a little like Virginia in that they really came together as a team and the whole was more than the sum of their parts. In the Big 12 tourney they beat a mediocre Kansas State team, a Kansas team missing a key player and a Baylor team that had been a disappointment this year. Maybe they aren’t quite that good and maybe NCC can pull off the upset here. I sure hope it’s them and not us.
4 vs. 13: UCLA-Tulsa, Michigan State-Delaware, San Diego State-New Mexico State, Louisville-Manhattan.
Rick Pitino is not losing to a protégé and Louisville is not losing to Manhattan. Not they way they are playing. People are talking about Delaware’s high scoring guards but I’ve also read that they “operate best when they drive to the basket and draw fouls”. Not through Tom Izzo’s defense. UCLA has tremendous size with two 6-10 twins, the Wears and 6-9 Kyle Anderson who can play guard or forward. Their best player is a 6-5 guard named Jordan Adams. That seems like too much for Tulsa.
San Diego State is interesting. They thought they were going to the Big East for football and the Big west for basketball, (which tells you something about the state of college basketball). The Big West is normally a one-bid conference so Steve Fisher beefed up his non-conference schedule only to see the Big East deal fall through , forcing them to stay in the much tougher Mountain West and giving them the toughest schedule they have ever played. But they aced it at 29-4. They played competitively vs. Arizona and beat Creighton, Marquette and Kansas. They are the real deal. New Mexico State is most famous for their 7-5 360 pound center, Sim Bhullar who next year will be joined by his 7-3 brother Tanveer, who is redshirting. Bhlullar is one of four double figure scorers on the Aggies, led by 6-2 Daniel Mullings at 16.8ppg. The Aggies are a running team, despite Bhullar’s bulk, the Aztecs more of a defensive team that might slow it down, which could help the massive Bhullar. SDS lost their conference title game to New Mexico 58-64 while NMS beat Idaho 77-55. Earlier they lost to New Mexico by 9.
I don’t really see any of the 13 seeds winning but since I have to pick one, I’ll pick the one with the 7-5 guy. New Mexico State bumps off San Diego State.
5 vs 12: Virginia Commonwealth-Stephen . Austin, Cincinnati-Harvard, Oklahoma-North Dakota State, St. Louis –North Carolina State or Xavier.
VCU is a live by the sword/ die by the sword pressing team. They used it to get to the Final Four in 2011 and Shaka Smart was a genius. His IQ seemed to be in a slump when they got crushed by Trey Burke and Michigan, 53-78 last year. SFA is the team we beat in the first round in 2009. They couldn’t handle our athletic big men. VCU has a good one in Juvante Reddic. The Lumberjacks are much better than they were when we beat them. They are 31-2 and have won 28 games in a row by an average of 16 points. They are coached by former Frank market assistant Brad Underwood, so you know they play defense. They are also 8th in the nation in assists with 16.6 per game but nobody averaged more than 3.5 a game. But five guys average at least 1.8 assists. This team passes the ball well. They average 11 turnovers a game.
Harvard is a popular upset pick over Cincinnati, who split their last 8 games. Cincy is an excellent defensive team that gets much of it’s scoring from its star, Sean Kilpatrick, (20.7ppg). Harvard has five players in double figures and a sixth at 9.3. They upset New Mexico last year, shutting down their star, Tony Snell. But the bearcats clearly play in a stronger conference.
North Dakota State and Delaware are my favorite small college football schools. Both have very good basketball teams this year. NDS had 5 starters back from a 24-10 team last year. This year they are 25-6 and have won 14 of 15. They beat Notre Dame but then lost to Ohio State by 17. Oklahoma is a young team dependent on outside shooting. They are actually somewhat similar to NDS, just less experienced but probably more talented.
St. Louis, like Syracuse, stumbled into the tournament, having lost 4 of 5 after a sterling 22-2 start. They will play the winner of a game between Xavier, who is nursing some injuries and NC State who, as we know, have been playing very well and who has what we lack: a stud who can carry the team in TJ Warren.
I can see an upset in all these match-ups. I have to settle on one. Michigan State and Louisville are looming as 4 seeds for Harvard or NC State, (who I think will beat Xavier), and a red-shot UCLA team is the 4th seed opposite Stephen . Austin so I’ll go with North Dakota State to top Oklahoma and then beat New Mexico State.
6 vs. 11: Ohio State- Dayton, North Carolina- Providence, Baylor- Nebraska, Massachusetts-Iowa or Tennessee
It’s interesting seeing major conference teams in the play-in games. Ohio State-Dayton jumps out at you because it’s another game where the NCAA “Accidentally” has paired two teams from the same state who haven’t played each other. Ohio State started 15-0, then went 10-9. People say they can’t score based on a 48-39 win over Illinois and 53-63 loss to Illinois but they were 60+ in all their other games. And they play fanatical defense led by Aaron craft, the sort of player you’d love to have but hate to play against. Dayton has impressed people, (including JB in Hawaii) at times and disappointed at other times, including a 4 game losing streak in mid-season. They like to press but I think Craft can handle it.
North Carolina has plenty of size and talent as always. They looked terrible when they lost 4 of 5 to begin the ACC schedule. They then ripped off 11 in a row before Duke and Pittsburgh cooled them off. Providence was the surprise winner of the Big Tournament after a 20-11, 10-8 regular season. I don’t like surprise conference tournament winners in the NCAAs.
Baylor-Nebraska. The SWC vs. the Big Eight….I mean the Big 10 vs. the Big 12…I mean the Big 12 vs. the Big 10. Baylor has size, speed and talent and lost only to Syracuse in their first 13 games. Then they had an awful 2-7 stretch but turned it around with 10 wins in 11 games before losing to Iowa State in the Big 12 final. Nebraska also had a good stretch, 8 wins in 9 games before losing to Ohio State in the Big 10 tournament. Baylor is better and besides that their uniforms will blind the Cornhusker shooters.
UMASS: Julius Erving and John Cailpari. But they aren’t there anymore. After a 15-1 start, they were 9-7 down the stretch. They have size up front but a tiny backcourt: 5-9 and 60-. I don’t like tiny backcourts. Iowa and Tennessee have similar records at 20-12 vs. 21-12 and even similar teams, (both are among the top 20 rebounding teams in the country). Both have high scoring 6-6 swingmen: Roy Marble and Jordan Stokes. The difference is the direction they have been going. Iowa is in a 1-6 free fall while Tennessee won 6 of 7 before giving Florida all they handle in the SEC tournament.
This one’s easy: Tennessee will beat Iowa and Massachusetts. (Easy doesn’t make it right but I am looking for easy.) Why aren’t the play in games for the 16th and 15th seeds, rather than 16, 12 and 11?
7 vs. 10: New Mexico-Stanford, Connecticut-St. Joseph’s, Oregon-BYU, Texas-Arizona State
New Mexico and Stanford are similar teams, with dynamic, high scoring point guards Kendall Williams and Chesson Randle and a couple of good big men each. Like Iowa and Tennessee, they have been going in opposite directions. The Lobos are on a 20-3 run and beat San Diego State for the Mountain West title. Stanford is on a 9-7 run and got blown out by 25 vs. UCLA in the Pac 12 tournament.
It’s interesting that Connecticut has now become a perimeter team. They always had strong guard play but they had a bunch of NBA types inside as well. Now it’s all about Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatwright. DeAndre Daniels and Niels Giffey are good too, but they are 6-8 and 6-7. St Joes’ shocked everyone by winning the A10 tournament and have a great guard of their own in Langston Galloway. But he doesn’t have as much help as Napier.
Oregon-BYU is a rematch of a 100-96 game form December. (Remember 100-96 games? Now we have 100-96 weeks). These are the third and 11th highest scoring teams in the country. BYU played a strong non-conference schedule, beating Stanford and Texas and losing to Iowa State, Wichita State and Massachusetts in competitive games. Tyler Hawes is doing a nice Jimmer Fredette imitation with 23.4ppg. Oregon is another team that got blown out by UCLA in the Pac 12 tourney.
Both Texas and Arizona State have made comebacks, Texas from its first losing season under Rick Barnes and ASU from a stretch four year absence from the tournament, (remember when James Harden looked like he couldn’t play a lick?). Texas doesn’t have any big stat players but went 11-7 in the tough Big 12. The Wildcats have one of the most exciting players in the country in 5-10 Jahli Carson, who has averaged 18+ both as a freshman and sophomore and put 40 points on UNLV. They also split with Arizona, beating them 69-66 in OT the last time they played. But they have lost their last 3 games.
I need two upsets at this level so I’m going with BYU and ASU.
8 vs. 9: Colorado-Pittsburgh, Memphis-George Washington, Gonzaga-Oklahoma State, Kentucky- Kansas State
I’m not sure why Pitt is a 9 seed. They have the better record at 25-9 to 23-11, are in as good a conference, have been playing very well and Colorado is missing their star point guard, Spencer Dinwiddie, which has pulled the plug on their offense. This is an easy “upset” pick.
Both Memphis and George Washington are rebuilding, (in GW’s case it’s more ‘building’). The Tigers are using freshmen, the Colonials transfers. That makes Memphis the younger but probably more talented team. They are also the colder team, going 7-5 down the stretch and looking bad in a 53-72 loss to Connecticut in the conference tourney. GW had won 4 in a row before losing in the A-10 toruney to VCU but it was by a similar score, 55-72. That’s how you get in an 8-9 game.
Very simply, Oklahoma State wouldn’t be in an 8-9 game if Marcus Smart had not been suspended. His suspension as part of a 7 game losing streak in February that nearly destroyed the Cowboy’s season. But that streak included two overtime losses and three other losses by 6 points or less. When Smart returned, the team started winning again and are 5-2 since with both losses in overtime to Iowa State and Kansas, teams that got 3 and 2 seeds, respectively in this tournament. Gonzaga isn’t nearly the team that got a #1 seed last year and finished 32-3. They went 28-6 this year but did it in a much inferior conference.
Kentucky was talking 40-0 to start the season. They now find themselves in an 8-9 game. Naturally they have a lot of talent but for the second straight year, it hasn’t meshed. They could get to 30-10 if they win the national championship. They were a 5-5 team down the stretch. But K-State seems like just what the doctor ordered: a rebuilding team that wasn’t a powerhouse to begin with and is 20-12 and has lost its last 3 games.
I see three upsets here but the historical average is two so I will go with Pitt and Kentucky, neither of whom should have been seeded this low.
In the Round of 32
According to “The Plan”, the #12 seed (ND State) and one of the #10 seeds make it to the Sweet 16 and then lose. BYU would face Wisconsin and Arizona State would face Michigan. Those are the Big Ten’s two top teams, (before Michigan State got healthy and beat them both in the conference tourney). Both games will be in Milwaukee, so it’s a virtual home game for Wisconsin. But I like BYU more than Arizona State and will go with them to knock off Wisconsin.
The Final Four
Now let’s look at the other end of the telescope: who do I think will be in the Final Four? I need two one seeds, a 2 seed and a 3 or 4 seed.
The last is the easiest. Louisville is the defending national champion. They beat the #1 seed in their region in the Final Four last year and this year they are taking no prisoners down the stretch, winning their last 5 games by an average of 29 points. Everybody agrees their seed was ridiculous. I figured them for the Final Four before I even looked at the brackets and I’ll stick with that.
But that also knocks out everybody’s favorite, (at ESPN anyway), Michigan State. The comment we kept hearing is that the talking head is “going with my original prediction”. I agree with the notion that these experts wanted to validate their original predictions. I’m sure they are very good but I like Louisville better. That opens that region up for a Virginia team that’s been playing some of the best basketball in the country for two months, winning 17 of 18 and both the ACC regular season and tournament championships. They will be one of the #1’s. I’m not impressed with the #2 in that region, Villanova.
Wisconsin was the #2 seed the west region so I’ve got to go with Arizona there. That leaves me with Kansas in the south region, which could happen if Embied comes back.
That gives me Virginia vs. Kansas in one semi-Final and Louisville vs. Arizona in the other. Virginia’s had a great run but if Embeid is back, Kansas has too much size and talent for them. Louisville has made its recent run despite having lost their two best big men Dieng and Behanan from last year’s team. Montrezl Harrell is having a good year but the Cardinals are mostly a perimeter team and I think they may have peaked in the conference tournament. It’s hard to repeat as national champion: Florida’s the only one I the last 20 years. I takes a great team with everybody back and I don’t see the Cardinals that way. That makes it a Kansas-Arizona final and Arizona is the 1 seed, so they win it.
The rest is chalk.
