SWC75
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Here is my thinking in filling out my NCAA bracket sheet this year, using the concepts in my annual “NCAA Seed Stats” post. It’s not designed to prove me a genius, just to allow me to have a life for the next few days by limiting the amount of time I spent on this.
I started by picking all the #1 and #2 seeds to win because a #1 seed had never lost in the first round and #2 seeds are 113-7. That’s 8 of 63 games right there.
I had to pick one #14 seed to beat a #3 seed because that’s the historical average. As usual, I didn’t like any of the #14 seeds. I thought about Albany-Oklahoma but the Sooners lot in the first round last year so they will be wary and, per USA Today, “the Sooners were one of seven teams in the nation to start the same five players in every regular season game”. It must be nice. I think that will make them solid enough to survive the first round. I very much like Iowa State and UAB was a 16-15 team that got hot in their conference tournament. I steer away from those teams the next week. I also like the way Notre Dame is playing. Great passing and shooting. We saw what they can be like when the shots aren’t falling and I have to wonder if they will have a night like that before this tournament is over but I don’t see it happening this week. USA Today says Baylor and Kentucky are the only two teams to have a 6 point lead in every game this season. But that isn’t that awesome an achievement. We had a lot of 6 point leads this year in games we lost. Baylor got beat 9 times Georgia State has won 9 out of 10 games. They won 24 this year, 25 last year and had nearly everybody back. I’ll go with them over Baylor. That’s’ four more games.
I had to pick one #13 to best a #4. This one was an easy one. Louisville has trouble shooting, especially with Chris Jones out and UC Irvine had a 7-6 shot-blocker inside who will probably be playing in the NBA. Bad combo for the Cardinals. I can see Georgetown slowing down Eastern Washington and Tyler Harvey, the nation’s leading scorer. Harvard’s won in the opening round for two years in a row but UNC may not see the tournament for a while and they know it. Maryland had a very strong year in the Big Ten. The Terps are back. So UC Irvine over Louisville it is. It jumps right out at me. That’s 16 of the 63 games picked.
I also needed a #12 to beat a #5. The problem here is limiting it to one upset. There were three at this level last year and the one win was in overtime. This is where it gets real interesting. Everybody seems to like Buffalo here but they will be going up against a tough West Virginia team that was second in the nation in forcing turnovers, (20 a game). Arkansas was the second best team in the SEC by the same margin that Kentucky was the first best team. Wofford the kind of consistently successful lower major, (their fourth visit to the tournament in 6 years), that could be dangerous. They led the southern conference in field goal percentage, scoring defense and scoring margin. It seems strange to see Northern Iowa as a #5 seed but they are 30-3, split with Wichita State during the regular season and then won the Missouri Valley tournament. USA Today says they’ve been “playing like a top ten team”, although, other than Wichita, they haven’t been playing top ten type teams. They were one of the top teams nationally in scoring defense (54ppg) but are playing another one in Wyoming (56). Low scoring games are prone to upsets. Utah is a “great defensive team, ranking in the top 10 in scoring and field goal percentage defense” and they shoot 41% from beyond the arc, a good combination. But they’ve alternated losses (4) and wins (3) done the stretch. Stephen . Austin at 29-4 is “a popular pick to make a Cinderella run”, especially after they beat VCU in the round of 64 last year. I’ve got a feeling about Wofford over Arkansas. I’ll go with that but I’ll be surprised if that’s all there is as far as upsets at this level. That’s 20 of the 63 games.
11 vs. 6 is the last level at which the average is one upset. I like Xavier over Mississippi, who has lost 4 out of 5 games or BYU, although the Cougars could be dangerous because of their high-scoring back court. The Musketeers seem to always play well in the early rounds. Butler has so much success in the tournament in this decade they can’t be ignored. Texas had a hugely disappointing year, going from a pre-season top 10 team to 20-13 and barely in the tournament. SMU won 27 games and is coached by Larry Brown. They face Brown’s former school, UCLA, a team most people don’t think should have been in the tournament. I’m kind of surprised to see a 22-11 Providence team as a 6th seed and our old friends at Dayton and Boise State, both 25-8 at #11. They Flyers started 15-2 but had to suspend two players, have only 8 scholarship players, none over 6-6. But they are playing at home, (I thought teams didn’t get home games?) The Broncos were Mountain West regular season co-champion at #11. The Broncos have made plenty of noise in football and are ambitious to do the same thing in basketball. They had two 1,000 point scorers, Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks, the latter the conference player of the year from his guard positon. I like their looks and will pick them as my 11 seed winner. That’s 24 of 63 games picked.
Now we need two 7-10 and two 8-9 upsets. I like Wichita State big over Indiana. Virginia Commonwealth lost their point guard, Briante Weber to injury and “haven’t been the same team since”. I think Ohio State with DeAngelo Russell, will beat them. (If they do, will Shaka Smart still be a hot commodity?) Iowa turns out to have been a pretty good win for us as they wound up with a 7th seed. I think they’ll have their hands full with a perennially hot shooting Davidson team. Michigan State is everybody’s favorite team in March. It’s hard to imagine Georgia topping them. So I’ll go with Ohio State and Davidson to pull off the upsets at this level. That’s 28 of 63 winners selected.
St. John’s just suspended their center and seem very vulnerable to 26-8 San Diego State. I like NC State a lot with their guard play. LSU “has been one of the most confounding teams in the nation”, with NBA-like talent but a knack for losing close games. Cincinnati and Purdue are both defense-oriented teams but Purdue plays in the better conference. They led the Big 10 in both two point and three point field goal percentage defense. Oregon is a popular team and have a much better record than Oklahoma State, 25-9 to 18-13. The Ducks won 11 of 12 games before losing to Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament. The Cowboys have lost 6 of 7. Frankly, I like Purdue over Cincinnati. Frankly, I like the 8’s in the other three, (and the 8’s won three times last year). But I’ll stick to my plan and pick one. San Diego State has had trouble scoring. They are traveling 3,000 miles east to play in Charlotte. St. John’s might rally around their team and coach as sometimes happens in these situations. I’ll go with them. That’s 32 of 63 games decided.
Now I have to pick a 10th seed to get to the Sweet 16. (I used to have to pick a 12th seed to get there, too, but last year all three 12 seed that made it to the second round lost, tipping the historical scales against them in that round (21 -23). I looked at Arizona vs. Ohio State and didn’t like it at all. Arizona is full of future NBA players. Many people say they’d have the best chance vs. Kentucky. The Buckeyes are still waiting for one of their key players, Anthony Lee to come back from a groin injury. I just can’t see an upset here. Gonzaga vs. Davidson should be one of the fun games of the tournament. The Wildcats, (Steph Curry’s old school), is hitting 39.7% of their three pointers. The Zags top that at 40.8%. (It must be nice.). The difference is Gonzaga has a couple of 7-1 guys who aren’t as good as their two 6-10 guys. Davidson has nothing like that. But I’ll go with the Wildcats, thinking that this will be an “outside” battle more than an inside one and maybe Davidson can win it. With all the other first round upsetters going down, I’ve now picked 40 of the 63 games.
Now we lok down the other end of the telescope. Who do I think will make the Final Four and who do I think will win it all? Again using historical percentages, I should have two #1 seeds, a #2 seed and a #3 or #4 seed in my Final Four. I don’t see anybody in the Midwest beating Kentucky. Notre Dame could get hot from outside but I don’t really see it. In the West I think it’s between Wisconsin and Arizona. I like Duke big in the South. I think the outlier is the East, where Villanova seems like a weak #1 seed and Virginia a very tough #2 seed but a team that will be limited on offense because their best shooter Justin Anderson has a hand injury that made him virtually useless in the ACC tournament. He hasn’t hit a three pointer since February 2nd. UC Irvine took out the four seed in that region on my sheet so I’ll go with Oklahoma, a veteran, good shooting team that went out in the first round last year and will be determined to make a run this year. . I’ll go with them to win the east. Wisconsin and Arizona will be a great battle. The Wildcats have a great point guard and all those future NBA players. The Badgers have a couple of their own and are the most efficient offensive team in the country with the lowest rate of fouls and one of the lowest turnover rates. Fortunately, I don’t have to decide who wins this because I know I need a #2 seed here, so I’ll go with Arizona. That gives me ten more predictions so I’m up to 50 of the 63 games.
Now I’ve got ten games I’ve got to “fill in”. I’ll go with Maryland over West Virginia. The Terps had a better record in a better conference and have a great backcourt with Melo Trimble and Dez Wells, so I think they’ll handle Bob Huggins’ defensive pressure. I like the way Notre Dame is playing. You don’t want to under-estimate Butler but I think the Irish will beat them. I’m not impressed with Kansas and Wichita State has wanted a piece of them for years. I say they get it. The Shockers are, like Notre Dame a guard-oriented team so that should be a good match-up. As usual, I’ll go with the team from the better conference when ty seem similar: Notre Dame. I think the Irish will make things interesting against Kentucky- for a while. My view of Villanova is probably prejudiced by our game against them, which we should have won. They have a great record but their conference wasn’t that strong and I like the looks of NC State so I’ll go with the Wolfpack to pull off a rare #8 seed upset of a #1 seed. I’m not sold on North Iowa, (but maybe I’m about to be. I think and Oklahoma NC State final in the Dome could be fun and they both have great guards and like to run. I think we’ll get it. Michigan State-Virginia will be a great defensive duel if you are into that. It will also be a battle on the boards. I think the Cavs win that. It’s my old Big East bias but I’ll take Georgetown over Utah, who has been alternative wins and losses for a month. I think Larry Brown is really building something at SMU and USA Today lauds Iowa State by saying “The Cyclones play their best when they trail by double digits. In their past 5 games, all wins they fell behind by a total of 75 points. This is the NCAA tournament. You fall behind by double digits and you can kiss your dreams good bye. I also think the Mustangs will prove to be better than Davidson, who are too reliant on their outside shooting. Now I’ve predicted 60 of the 63 games.
That leaves me with the Final Four: Kentucky, Arizona, Oklahoma and Duke. I think either of the first two would beat either of the second two. I’m tempted to pick Arizona because so many other people will be picking Kentucky to win it all and I want an edge. I just feel that if the Wildcats get to 38-0, they’ll also get to 40-0. It’s been since 1976 but maybe we are due, (Bobby Knight’s Hoosiers were the 7the undefeated national champion in the previous 20 years). I think Duke will prove better than Oklahoma on the other side but fall short of the Wildcats.
If form holds, I’ll be out of it after the first weekend. I tend to pick the right amount of upsets but not the right ones. But at least I’ll get my sheet in on time and get a good night’s sleep as well.
I started by picking all the #1 and #2 seeds to win because a #1 seed had never lost in the first round and #2 seeds are 113-7. That’s 8 of 63 games right there.
I had to pick one #14 seed to beat a #3 seed because that’s the historical average. As usual, I didn’t like any of the #14 seeds. I thought about Albany-Oklahoma but the Sooners lot in the first round last year so they will be wary and, per USA Today, “the Sooners were one of seven teams in the nation to start the same five players in every regular season game”. It must be nice. I think that will make them solid enough to survive the first round. I very much like Iowa State and UAB was a 16-15 team that got hot in their conference tournament. I steer away from those teams the next week. I also like the way Notre Dame is playing. Great passing and shooting. We saw what they can be like when the shots aren’t falling and I have to wonder if they will have a night like that before this tournament is over but I don’t see it happening this week. USA Today says Baylor and Kentucky are the only two teams to have a 6 point lead in every game this season. But that isn’t that awesome an achievement. We had a lot of 6 point leads this year in games we lost. Baylor got beat 9 times Georgia State has won 9 out of 10 games. They won 24 this year, 25 last year and had nearly everybody back. I’ll go with them over Baylor. That’s’ four more games.
I had to pick one #13 to best a #4. This one was an easy one. Louisville has trouble shooting, especially with Chris Jones out and UC Irvine had a 7-6 shot-blocker inside who will probably be playing in the NBA. Bad combo for the Cardinals. I can see Georgetown slowing down Eastern Washington and Tyler Harvey, the nation’s leading scorer. Harvard’s won in the opening round for two years in a row but UNC may not see the tournament for a while and they know it. Maryland had a very strong year in the Big Ten. The Terps are back. So UC Irvine over Louisville it is. It jumps right out at me. That’s 16 of the 63 games picked.
I also needed a #12 to beat a #5. The problem here is limiting it to one upset. There were three at this level last year and the one win was in overtime. This is where it gets real interesting. Everybody seems to like Buffalo here but they will be going up against a tough West Virginia team that was second in the nation in forcing turnovers, (20 a game). Arkansas was the second best team in the SEC by the same margin that Kentucky was the first best team. Wofford the kind of consistently successful lower major, (their fourth visit to the tournament in 6 years), that could be dangerous. They led the southern conference in field goal percentage, scoring defense and scoring margin. It seems strange to see Northern Iowa as a #5 seed but they are 30-3, split with Wichita State during the regular season and then won the Missouri Valley tournament. USA Today says they’ve been “playing like a top ten team”, although, other than Wichita, they haven’t been playing top ten type teams. They were one of the top teams nationally in scoring defense (54ppg) but are playing another one in Wyoming (56). Low scoring games are prone to upsets. Utah is a “great defensive team, ranking in the top 10 in scoring and field goal percentage defense” and they shoot 41% from beyond the arc, a good combination. But they’ve alternated losses (4) and wins (3) done the stretch. Stephen . Austin at 29-4 is “a popular pick to make a Cinderella run”, especially after they beat VCU in the round of 64 last year. I’ve got a feeling about Wofford over Arkansas. I’ll go with that but I’ll be surprised if that’s all there is as far as upsets at this level. That’s 20 of the 63 games.
11 vs. 6 is the last level at which the average is one upset. I like Xavier over Mississippi, who has lost 4 out of 5 games or BYU, although the Cougars could be dangerous because of their high-scoring back court. The Musketeers seem to always play well in the early rounds. Butler has so much success in the tournament in this decade they can’t be ignored. Texas had a hugely disappointing year, going from a pre-season top 10 team to 20-13 and barely in the tournament. SMU won 27 games and is coached by Larry Brown. They face Brown’s former school, UCLA, a team most people don’t think should have been in the tournament. I’m kind of surprised to see a 22-11 Providence team as a 6th seed and our old friends at Dayton and Boise State, both 25-8 at #11. They Flyers started 15-2 but had to suspend two players, have only 8 scholarship players, none over 6-6. But they are playing at home, (I thought teams didn’t get home games?) The Broncos were Mountain West regular season co-champion at #11. The Broncos have made plenty of noise in football and are ambitious to do the same thing in basketball. They had two 1,000 point scorers, Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks, the latter the conference player of the year from his guard positon. I like their looks and will pick them as my 11 seed winner. That’s 24 of 63 games picked.
Now we need two 7-10 and two 8-9 upsets. I like Wichita State big over Indiana. Virginia Commonwealth lost their point guard, Briante Weber to injury and “haven’t been the same team since”. I think Ohio State with DeAngelo Russell, will beat them. (If they do, will Shaka Smart still be a hot commodity?) Iowa turns out to have been a pretty good win for us as they wound up with a 7th seed. I think they’ll have their hands full with a perennially hot shooting Davidson team. Michigan State is everybody’s favorite team in March. It’s hard to imagine Georgia topping them. So I’ll go with Ohio State and Davidson to pull off the upsets at this level. That’s 28 of 63 winners selected.
St. John’s just suspended their center and seem very vulnerable to 26-8 San Diego State. I like NC State a lot with their guard play. LSU “has been one of the most confounding teams in the nation”, with NBA-like talent but a knack for losing close games. Cincinnati and Purdue are both defense-oriented teams but Purdue plays in the better conference. They led the Big 10 in both two point and three point field goal percentage defense. Oregon is a popular team and have a much better record than Oklahoma State, 25-9 to 18-13. The Ducks won 11 of 12 games before losing to Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament. The Cowboys have lost 6 of 7. Frankly, I like Purdue over Cincinnati. Frankly, I like the 8’s in the other three, (and the 8’s won three times last year). But I’ll stick to my plan and pick one. San Diego State has had trouble scoring. They are traveling 3,000 miles east to play in Charlotte. St. John’s might rally around their team and coach as sometimes happens in these situations. I’ll go with them. That’s 32 of 63 games decided.
Now I have to pick a 10th seed to get to the Sweet 16. (I used to have to pick a 12th seed to get there, too, but last year all three 12 seed that made it to the second round lost, tipping the historical scales against them in that round (21 -23). I looked at Arizona vs. Ohio State and didn’t like it at all. Arizona is full of future NBA players. Many people say they’d have the best chance vs. Kentucky. The Buckeyes are still waiting for one of their key players, Anthony Lee to come back from a groin injury. I just can’t see an upset here. Gonzaga vs. Davidson should be one of the fun games of the tournament. The Wildcats, (Steph Curry’s old school), is hitting 39.7% of their three pointers. The Zags top that at 40.8%. (It must be nice.). The difference is Gonzaga has a couple of 7-1 guys who aren’t as good as their two 6-10 guys. Davidson has nothing like that. But I’ll go with the Wildcats, thinking that this will be an “outside” battle more than an inside one and maybe Davidson can win it. With all the other first round upsetters going down, I’ve now picked 40 of the 63 games.
Now we lok down the other end of the telescope. Who do I think will make the Final Four and who do I think will win it all? Again using historical percentages, I should have two #1 seeds, a #2 seed and a #3 or #4 seed in my Final Four. I don’t see anybody in the Midwest beating Kentucky. Notre Dame could get hot from outside but I don’t really see it. In the West I think it’s between Wisconsin and Arizona. I like Duke big in the South. I think the outlier is the East, where Villanova seems like a weak #1 seed and Virginia a very tough #2 seed but a team that will be limited on offense because their best shooter Justin Anderson has a hand injury that made him virtually useless in the ACC tournament. He hasn’t hit a three pointer since February 2nd. UC Irvine took out the four seed in that region on my sheet so I’ll go with Oklahoma, a veteran, good shooting team that went out in the first round last year and will be determined to make a run this year. . I’ll go with them to win the east. Wisconsin and Arizona will be a great battle. The Wildcats have a great point guard and all those future NBA players. The Badgers have a couple of their own and are the most efficient offensive team in the country with the lowest rate of fouls and one of the lowest turnover rates. Fortunately, I don’t have to decide who wins this because I know I need a #2 seed here, so I’ll go with Arizona. That gives me ten more predictions so I’m up to 50 of the 63 games.
Now I’ve got ten games I’ve got to “fill in”. I’ll go with Maryland over West Virginia. The Terps had a better record in a better conference and have a great backcourt with Melo Trimble and Dez Wells, so I think they’ll handle Bob Huggins’ defensive pressure. I like the way Notre Dame is playing. You don’t want to under-estimate Butler but I think the Irish will beat them. I’m not impressed with Kansas and Wichita State has wanted a piece of them for years. I say they get it. The Shockers are, like Notre Dame a guard-oriented team so that should be a good match-up. As usual, I’ll go with the team from the better conference when ty seem similar: Notre Dame. I think the Irish will make things interesting against Kentucky- for a while. My view of Villanova is probably prejudiced by our game against them, which we should have won. They have a great record but their conference wasn’t that strong and I like the looks of NC State so I’ll go with the Wolfpack to pull off a rare #8 seed upset of a #1 seed. I’m not sold on North Iowa, (but maybe I’m about to be. I think and Oklahoma NC State final in the Dome could be fun and they both have great guards and like to run. I think we’ll get it. Michigan State-Virginia will be a great defensive duel if you are into that. It will also be a battle on the boards. I think the Cavs win that. It’s my old Big East bias but I’ll take Georgetown over Utah, who has been alternative wins and losses for a month. I think Larry Brown is really building something at SMU and USA Today lauds Iowa State by saying “The Cyclones play their best when they trail by double digits. In their past 5 games, all wins they fell behind by a total of 75 points. This is the NCAA tournament. You fall behind by double digits and you can kiss your dreams good bye. I also think the Mustangs will prove to be better than Davidson, who are too reliant on their outside shooting. Now I’ve predicted 60 of the 63 games.
That leaves me with the Final Four: Kentucky, Arizona, Oklahoma and Duke. I think either of the first two would beat either of the second two. I’m tempted to pick Arizona because so many other people will be picking Kentucky to win it all and I want an edge. I just feel that if the Wildcats get to 38-0, they’ll also get to 40-0. It’s been since 1976 but maybe we are due, (Bobby Knight’s Hoosiers were the 7the undefeated national champion in the previous 20 years). I think Duke will prove better than Oklahoma on the other side but fall short of the Wildcats.
If form holds, I’ll be out of it after the first weekend. I tend to pick the right amount of upsets but not the right ones. But at least I’ll get my sheet in on time and get a good night’s sleep as well.