SWC75
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Here is my annual attempt to fill out a bracket based on the percentages outlined in my post “NCAA Seed Stats”.
NCAA Seed Stats
Again, the idea is not to achieve some kind of perfection but rather to not waste too much time filling out the bracket because nobody knows what’s going to happen anyway. You want some logic behind it but there’s a law of diminishing returns regarding the time spent on it.
The first thing I did was to predict that all of the #1 seeds and #2 seeds would win their first round games. The #1 seeds are 128-0 since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 and the #2 seeds are 120-8. Put that together and there is a 3% chance I’ll be wrong about one of those eight games. And if I am, you were probably worn too. (Especially if you did what I just suggested.) That’s 8 games picked, 55 to go in the time it takes to scribble down the names.
Now I need to look for one 14 seed, one 13 seed, one 12 seed and one 11 seed to win because that’s the historical average.
Looking at the 3-14 games, New Mexico State vs. Baylor is tempting. Baylor has bombed out in their first game two years in a row- losing to Georgia State and Yale. They are an athletic running team facing a slow-down defensive oriented team that won 28 games. The Aggies love to hit the offensive boards and Baylor plays several different zones from which it’s difficult to keep the other team off the boards. Baylor was 10-7 down the stretch after a 15-0 start. It seems almost too perfect. New Mexico State played in the WAC, which was once a respectable conference but is now a joke, full of teams that belong in Division II. They haven’t played anybody any good all year. I don’t see Baylor going one and done three years in a row. I didn’t see any red flags in Oregon vs. Iona, despite the loss of Chris Boucher. The game I like is Florida State vs. Florida Gulf- Coast, who has a similar team to the one that made all the noise a few years ago. That should be a race-horse, up and down game. Florida State has bigger people but I think speed will matter more. The pick: Florida Gulf Coast over Florida State. 12 down, 51 to go.
The 4-13 games look interesting. I can pick only one upset. I love East Tennessee State over Florida. ETS is shooting 55.5% inside the arc and the Gator’s lost their shot-blocking center to an AXCL injury “and haven’t been the same since”. They also are 14th in the country in steals (8.3 per game) and Florida’s ball handling is supposed to be shaky. West Virginia will be vulnerable if they can’t dictate tempo, (they lost to Stephen F. Austin in the first round last year 56-70), and they have had trouble doing that lately, per Bob Huggins. Bucknell has some famous upsets and beat Vanderbilt earlier this year but I still like ETS over Florida better. Pursue beat Vermont by 28 points last year and they have had two OT losses in the first round in the last two years. They are due to win one. Winthrop would make a good name for a butler but Butler, who looks as good as they were in the Brad Stevens days, will handle them. So the pick here is East Tennessee State over Florida. 16 down, 47 to go.
The four #5 seeds won 71% of their games and they are playing teams that won 84% of their games. That #12 spot features the best of the lower majors and thus some of the best upset possibilities. I don’t see UNC Wilmington, who likes to run, hurrying up Virginia. Princeton blitzed the Ivy League and hasn’t lost since December, (must be nice). They are noted for making other team play their game and Ivy League teams have pulled off first round upsets in two of the last three tournaments. But Notre Dame is a well-coached team that shoots it well and knows how to hit the boards. I think they can handle them. I saw this description of Iowa State: “The Cyclones have four guys who can flat out score. …They did suffer seven road and neutral-site defeats, but five of them were by six points or fewer.” Does that sound familiar? They also aren’t very big, a four guard team with a 6-8 center. Nevada: “The starting lineup is long and athletic, and, (Cameron), Oliver is a versatile sophomore forward who could one day play in the NBA.” (quotes from Campusinisders.com). Middle Tennessee will be a popular pick over Minnesota. Everybody remembers the Blue Raiders knocking off Michigan State in the first round last year. Nobody remembers that we beat them by 25 in the next game. You’ve got to love a team with a player named Giddy Potts. But the upset I like is Nevada over Iowa State. 20 down, 43 to go.
The 6-11 games are marred by the fact that two play-in games feed into them, (why aren’t they all for the 16 seeds?). Southern Methodist will be playing Providence or Southern California. Those are two different teams. How do you analyze the match-ups? SMU is a well-coached, among the nation’s leaders in assist-to-turnover ratio and fewest fouls committed. I think they will avoid a first round upset. But Paschal Chukwu must be wondering what it would have been like to remain at Providence. The other 6-11 what if game features Cincinnati, who, rather quietly, had a 29-5 season against Kansas State or Wake Forest, who is likely occupying the spot we might have had. The Bearcats have a similar reputation to the Mustangs: “The Bearcats distribute the ball well, hold on to the rock and have one of the nation’s top assist-turnover ratios. This is a very efficient club.” Again, I like the chances of a team like that to avoid the upset. Creighton is another team that lost a key player: they are 7-8 since point guard Maurice Watson went down. They still have guard Marcus Foster and a quality 7 foot center Justin Patton. They had enough to beat Xavier and Villanova in their conference tournament. Rhode Island started out 12-7 and then won 12 of 14 and the A-10 tournament. The Rams are a poor outside-shooting team with less size underneath. Maryland also lost their point guard and stumbled to the finish. Even full healthy the Terps never beat a top 25 team all season and only played two of them, (the Big Ten had a down years). Xavier was 0-7 against Top 25 teams, although with many close losses, before beating #18 Butler in the Big East semis. The teams are rather similar, with their stats being fairly average across the board, except in blocked shots, where 7-1 center Michal Cekovsky, blocked 154 shots. Like Creighton, they also have a high scoring guard in Melo Trimble. It comes down to Creighton-Rhode Island and Maryland-Xavier I think Creighton is better than Maryland and that Xavier is better than Rhode Island so I’ll go with Xavier beating Maryland as my upset in the 6-11 line. 24 down, 39 to go.
I needed two upsets in the 7-10 games. South Carolina-Marquette will be interesting. As we experienced, Frank Martin has the Gamecocks playing aggressive defense, pecking away at the ball in every possession. They are not a good offensive team. Marquette is. They led the nation in three point field goal percentage with 43%. They like to steal the ball but they only ranked 267th in the country in defense. The game will be played in Greenville, SC. The NCAA has always been unsure about St. Mary’s, Gonzaga’s rival in the West Coast Conference. They’ve sent them to the NIT three years in a row and seeded them 7th this year despite a 28-4 record. Now they have to take on Virginia Commonwealth, a team that loves to put their opposition through the ringer with their press and who have done very well in the tournament over the years. They have plenty of depth but are not a tall team and 6-11 Jock Londale, one of seven Australians on the St. Mary’s team, could have a field day inside if they can get him the ball. Another team unhappy with its seed is Wichita State, with their glistening 30-4 record and a history of recent success in the tournament. Like VCU they are deep and use a full court press. Their margin of victory: 19.4 points! They had some trouble with power conference teams but that’s an issue for later. Dayton seems similar to last year’s team, whom we beat and the 2014 team whom we should have beaten. They have a good backcourt, including Scoochie Smith but not much up front. Michigan seems to have come together after their airplane slide off the runway: they seem on a mission and that led them to victory in the Big Ten tournament. Oklahoma State hasn’t won an NCAA game in this decade and bracketed an 0-6 conference start with an 0-3 finish. They have two excellent players in guard Jawun Underwood, who averages 19 points and 6.2 assists, and 6-foot-6 forward Jeffrey Carroll, who averages 17.4 points and 6.6 rebounds, but they don’t get enough help and the team doesn’t play much defense. The Wolverines are a veteran, strong shooting team and aren’t afraid of a shoot-out. I’ll go with VCU over St. Mary’s and Wichita State over Dayton here. 28 down, 35 to go.
8-9 games are a toss-up by their nature so I could choose any two of them and be OK. Wisconsin is still another team angry with its seeding. They have won more NCAA tournament games in the last three years (11) than any other team. Yet a 25-9 team that went 12-6 in the Big Ten is a #8 seed.
They have four seniors in their starting line-up, two of whom played Duke for the national title two years ago. Buzz William’s Hokies can hang with them but I think the Badgers are the better team. Northwestern-Vanderbilt should be a test, not a basketball game. Both are more noted for academics than athletics. The Wildcats are an aggressive defense and rebounding team. Vandy is all about the three pointer. If they are falling, they can win. If not, forget it. I think the Wildcats, not having to worry about any inside game, can make them forget it. Vandy is 19-15, the first team with that losses ever to get an at large bid to the tournament. Hurrmp… This year’s Michigan State team might be Tom izzo’s worst since early in his tenure. It’s possible they only made the tournament because their AD was the head of the selection committee. But it’s still a Tom izzo team. Will he be one and done two years in a row? Both they and U of Miami had an up-and-down season: who will be up? Both teams like to grind and watching them play might be a grind, too. The fact that 25-9 Arkansas team is playing a 21-11 Seton hall team tells you that the SEC wasn’t very strong this year. Arkansas’ best quality is that they hit 76% of their free throws. That will give them an advantage if they are protecting a lead at the end of the game. For Seton Hall, 6-10 Angel Delgado led the nation in rebounding and double-doubles. The Pirates beat Butler and Marquette in the BET before losing by 2 to Villanova. They do have trouble handling pressure and Arkansas presses, just like the old days. I’ll go with Michigan State and Seton Hall to pull off the very mild upsets here. 32 down, 31 to go.
I’ve got to have a 10 seed advance to the Sweet 16. I’ll pick Wichita State to knock off Kentucky, with its two freshmen guards. Then they lose in the Sweet 16 game. The other first round upsetters: Florida Gulf Coast, East Tennessee State, Nevada, Virginia Commonwealth, Michigan State and Seton Hall go down, except for Xavier, who will be playing Florida Gulf Coast, (maybe I shouda thought of that?). That’s 9 more games picked. 41 down, 22 to ggo
Now we turn the telescope around and pick the Final Four teams. My formula is to pick two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and one less than that. I like Kansas with their excellent backcourt. I’m not sold on Gonzaga, who has yet to make a Final Four, despite reaching the #1 ranking in a couple of seasons. North Carolina probably has the best combination of inside and outside strength but they also have 7 losses, a large number for a #1 seed, even in a strong conference, although I note that the ACC’s nine teams had a total of 84 losses, a tribute to the gauntlet the conference was this year. Villanova has had a strong follow-up to their championship season. I also think they have the strongest #2 seed in Duke – unless that would be Arizona. I don’t think this is the year for Kentucky or Louisville.
Looking through the dark horses, I really like UCLA. They are still a pretty high seed, a three, (as we were in 2003). They are a cocky team but that can be a good thing if they have the stuff to back it up. Michigan is on a roll. SMU is very good but I don’t see them getting by both Duke and Villanova. Of course, there’s always the possibility someone else could bump off one of them and then not maintain that level of play so the path gets easier. It happens all the time- see Middle Tennessee last year. Notre Dame is a very solid team. West Virginia has had a strong season Their press could take them to the Final Four but probably not beyond that. Creighton and Oregon are missing key players. Purdue’s pretty good. They often are but it’s been decades since they played on the last weekend. Wichita State has made it there recently and they have a grudge with the committee. A 10 seed made it last year. But I think Lonzo Ball can do some business against their full-court press in the Sweet 16 game. Besides, by my formula, the 10 seed that advances to the Sweet 16 stops there. UCLA can certainly make that happen. It seems cowardly to take a 3 seed as my Cinderella in a year so competitively flat. But I just have a feeling about the Bruins.
That would leave the ACC without a Final Four team unless Duke can knock off Villanova. But the strength of this conference was in the quality of it’s top teams, although that was very good. It was in its top to bottom strength. I like Nova to get back to the Final Four so I’ll pick them and Arizona as my 2 seed. That leaves me with Villanova, Arizona, Kansas and UCLA. Filling them in to the Final Four gives me 12 picks so I’m up to 49 down, 14 to go.
Louisville is a strong team but they’ve kind of stumbled down the stretch with 3 losses in 5 games. I like the look of Michigan to beat them and to beat the Creighton-Oregon winner, which I think will be Oregon. Butler vs. Minnesota is a tough one: it should be an ugly game between two physical teams. Butler has an aggressive defense and Minnesota, per collegeinsiders.com, “have lacked composure at times. For as good as (Nate) Mason is, he can be erratic and take bad shots. They’ve also stumbled in the second half of games be have been better recently.” I’ll go with Butler. To beat them and then lose to UNC. SMU-Baylor should be an interesting confrontation. Two old SWC teams, (my favorite conference) who never thought about basketball in the old days but have now decided to get good at it. Ill got with Baylor’s athleticism in that one. South Carolina could give Duke a lot of trouble but I like the way the Blue Devils are playing and I’ll pick them to beat both the Gamecocks and the Bears before losing to Nova. I think Gonzaga has too mu h for Northwestern. Notre Dame-West Virginia could be a great game. The Irish are the kind of solid team that could withstand the Mountaineer press and I think they will win. But I think the Irish will have trouble dealing with Gonzaga’s size.
My Final Four will have a battle of Wildcats. Villanova has the most wins (31) at this point of any defending national champion. I saw one site comparing them to Florida, the last team to repeat. Arizona has 30 wins on their own and are mad that they didn’t get a #1 seed after winning the Pac 12, which was the strongest, (at least at the top) that they’d been for years. I just have a feeling that it stops here for Nova. UCLA actually has 6 double figure scorers. They also have plenty of size. Ball is a 6-6 point guard and two of those double figure scorers go 6-10 and 7-0. They lead the nation in shooting, scoring and assists. But Kansas was the #1 overall seed. They could have had a very different season: they were 9-1 in games decided by three points or less. But the NCAAs are all about winning close games. Frank Mason maybe the best guard in the country and a major player of the year candidate and Josh Jackson and Devonte Graham are also top players. I’m just not ready for an all-Pac 12 title game although I wouldn’t be surprised by one. Think the Pac 12 was the best conference at the top this year, just not as strong as the ACC top to bottom.
So I’ve got an Arizona vs. Kansas final and I’ll go with Kansas just because they seem due for another title after being in the hunt seemingly every year.
So I’ve done it all in one day and am still, (mostly) sane.
NCAA Seed Stats
Again, the idea is not to achieve some kind of perfection but rather to not waste too much time filling out the bracket because nobody knows what’s going to happen anyway. You want some logic behind it but there’s a law of diminishing returns regarding the time spent on it.
The first thing I did was to predict that all of the #1 seeds and #2 seeds would win their first round games. The #1 seeds are 128-0 since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 and the #2 seeds are 120-8. Put that together and there is a 3% chance I’ll be wrong about one of those eight games. And if I am, you were probably worn too. (Especially if you did what I just suggested.) That’s 8 games picked, 55 to go in the time it takes to scribble down the names.
Now I need to look for one 14 seed, one 13 seed, one 12 seed and one 11 seed to win because that’s the historical average.
Looking at the 3-14 games, New Mexico State vs. Baylor is tempting. Baylor has bombed out in their first game two years in a row- losing to Georgia State and Yale. They are an athletic running team facing a slow-down defensive oriented team that won 28 games. The Aggies love to hit the offensive boards and Baylor plays several different zones from which it’s difficult to keep the other team off the boards. Baylor was 10-7 down the stretch after a 15-0 start. It seems almost too perfect. New Mexico State played in the WAC, which was once a respectable conference but is now a joke, full of teams that belong in Division II. They haven’t played anybody any good all year. I don’t see Baylor going one and done three years in a row. I didn’t see any red flags in Oregon vs. Iona, despite the loss of Chris Boucher. The game I like is Florida State vs. Florida Gulf- Coast, who has a similar team to the one that made all the noise a few years ago. That should be a race-horse, up and down game. Florida State has bigger people but I think speed will matter more. The pick: Florida Gulf Coast over Florida State. 12 down, 51 to go.
The 4-13 games look interesting. I can pick only one upset. I love East Tennessee State over Florida. ETS is shooting 55.5% inside the arc and the Gator’s lost their shot-blocking center to an AXCL injury “and haven’t been the same since”. They also are 14th in the country in steals (8.3 per game) and Florida’s ball handling is supposed to be shaky. West Virginia will be vulnerable if they can’t dictate tempo, (they lost to Stephen F. Austin in the first round last year 56-70), and they have had trouble doing that lately, per Bob Huggins. Bucknell has some famous upsets and beat Vanderbilt earlier this year but I still like ETS over Florida better. Pursue beat Vermont by 28 points last year and they have had two OT losses in the first round in the last two years. They are due to win one. Winthrop would make a good name for a butler but Butler, who looks as good as they were in the Brad Stevens days, will handle them. So the pick here is East Tennessee State over Florida. 16 down, 47 to go.
The four #5 seeds won 71% of their games and they are playing teams that won 84% of their games. That #12 spot features the best of the lower majors and thus some of the best upset possibilities. I don’t see UNC Wilmington, who likes to run, hurrying up Virginia. Princeton blitzed the Ivy League and hasn’t lost since December, (must be nice). They are noted for making other team play their game and Ivy League teams have pulled off first round upsets in two of the last three tournaments. But Notre Dame is a well-coached team that shoots it well and knows how to hit the boards. I think they can handle them. I saw this description of Iowa State: “The Cyclones have four guys who can flat out score. …They did suffer seven road and neutral-site defeats, but five of them were by six points or fewer.” Does that sound familiar? They also aren’t very big, a four guard team with a 6-8 center. Nevada: “The starting lineup is long and athletic, and, (Cameron), Oliver is a versatile sophomore forward who could one day play in the NBA.” (quotes from Campusinisders.com). Middle Tennessee will be a popular pick over Minnesota. Everybody remembers the Blue Raiders knocking off Michigan State in the first round last year. Nobody remembers that we beat them by 25 in the next game. You’ve got to love a team with a player named Giddy Potts. But the upset I like is Nevada over Iowa State. 20 down, 43 to go.
The 6-11 games are marred by the fact that two play-in games feed into them, (why aren’t they all for the 16 seeds?). Southern Methodist will be playing Providence or Southern California. Those are two different teams. How do you analyze the match-ups? SMU is a well-coached, among the nation’s leaders in assist-to-turnover ratio and fewest fouls committed. I think they will avoid a first round upset. But Paschal Chukwu must be wondering what it would have been like to remain at Providence. The other 6-11 what if game features Cincinnati, who, rather quietly, had a 29-5 season against Kansas State or Wake Forest, who is likely occupying the spot we might have had. The Bearcats have a similar reputation to the Mustangs: “The Bearcats distribute the ball well, hold on to the rock and have one of the nation’s top assist-turnover ratios. This is a very efficient club.” Again, I like the chances of a team like that to avoid the upset. Creighton is another team that lost a key player: they are 7-8 since point guard Maurice Watson went down. They still have guard Marcus Foster and a quality 7 foot center Justin Patton. They had enough to beat Xavier and Villanova in their conference tournament. Rhode Island started out 12-7 and then won 12 of 14 and the A-10 tournament. The Rams are a poor outside-shooting team with less size underneath. Maryland also lost their point guard and stumbled to the finish. Even full healthy the Terps never beat a top 25 team all season and only played two of them, (the Big Ten had a down years). Xavier was 0-7 against Top 25 teams, although with many close losses, before beating #18 Butler in the Big East semis. The teams are rather similar, with their stats being fairly average across the board, except in blocked shots, where 7-1 center Michal Cekovsky, blocked 154 shots. Like Creighton, they also have a high scoring guard in Melo Trimble. It comes down to Creighton-Rhode Island and Maryland-Xavier I think Creighton is better than Maryland and that Xavier is better than Rhode Island so I’ll go with Xavier beating Maryland as my upset in the 6-11 line. 24 down, 39 to go.
I needed two upsets in the 7-10 games. South Carolina-Marquette will be interesting. As we experienced, Frank Martin has the Gamecocks playing aggressive defense, pecking away at the ball in every possession. They are not a good offensive team. Marquette is. They led the nation in three point field goal percentage with 43%. They like to steal the ball but they only ranked 267th in the country in defense. The game will be played in Greenville, SC. The NCAA has always been unsure about St. Mary’s, Gonzaga’s rival in the West Coast Conference. They’ve sent them to the NIT three years in a row and seeded them 7th this year despite a 28-4 record. Now they have to take on Virginia Commonwealth, a team that loves to put their opposition through the ringer with their press and who have done very well in the tournament over the years. They have plenty of depth but are not a tall team and 6-11 Jock Londale, one of seven Australians on the St. Mary’s team, could have a field day inside if they can get him the ball. Another team unhappy with its seed is Wichita State, with their glistening 30-4 record and a history of recent success in the tournament. Like VCU they are deep and use a full court press. Their margin of victory: 19.4 points! They had some trouble with power conference teams but that’s an issue for later. Dayton seems similar to last year’s team, whom we beat and the 2014 team whom we should have beaten. They have a good backcourt, including Scoochie Smith but not much up front. Michigan seems to have come together after their airplane slide off the runway: they seem on a mission and that led them to victory in the Big Ten tournament. Oklahoma State hasn’t won an NCAA game in this decade and bracketed an 0-6 conference start with an 0-3 finish. They have two excellent players in guard Jawun Underwood, who averages 19 points and 6.2 assists, and 6-foot-6 forward Jeffrey Carroll, who averages 17.4 points and 6.6 rebounds, but they don’t get enough help and the team doesn’t play much defense. The Wolverines are a veteran, strong shooting team and aren’t afraid of a shoot-out. I’ll go with VCU over St. Mary’s and Wichita State over Dayton here. 28 down, 35 to go.
8-9 games are a toss-up by their nature so I could choose any two of them and be OK. Wisconsin is still another team angry with its seeding. They have won more NCAA tournament games in the last three years (11) than any other team. Yet a 25-9 team that went 12-6 in the Big Ten is a #8 seed.
They have four seniors in their starting line-up, two of whom played Duke for the national title two years ago. Buzz William’s Hokies can hang with them but I think the Badgers are the better team. Northwestern-Vanderbilt should be a test, not a basketball game. Both are more noted for academics than athletics. The Wildcats are an aggressive defense and rebounding team. Vandy is all about the three pointer. If they are falling, they can win. If not, forget it. I think the Wildcats, not having to worry about any inside game, can make them forget it. Vandy is 19-15, the first team with that losses ever to get an at large bid to the tournament. Hurrmp… This year’s Michigan State team might be Tom izzo’s worst since early in his tenure. It’s possible they only made the tournament because their AD was the head of the selection committee. But it’s still a Tom izzo team. Will he be one and done two years in a row? Both they and U of Miami had an up-and-down season: who will be up? Both teams like to grind and watching them play might be a grind, too. The fact that 25-9 Arkansas team is playing a 21-11 Seton hall team tells you that the SEC wasn’t very strong this year. Arkansas’ best quality is that they hit 76% of their free throws. That will give them an advantage if they are protecting a lead at the end of the game. For Seton Hall, 6-10 Angel Delgado led the nation in rebounding and double-doubles. The Pirates beat Butler and Marquette in the BET before losing by 2 to Villanova. They do have trouble handling pressure and Arkansas presses, just like the old days. I’ll go with Michigan State and Seton Hall to pull off the very mild upsets here. 32 down, 31 to go.
I’ve got to have a 10 seed advance to the Sweet 16. I’ll pick Wichita State to knock off Kentucky, with its two freshmen guards. Then they lose in the Sweet 16 game. The other first round upsetters: Florida Gulf Coast, East Tennessee State, Nevada, Virginia Commonwealth, Michigan State and Seton Hall go down, except for Xavier, who will be playing Florida Gulf Coast, (maybe I shouda thought of that?). That’s 9 more games picked. 41 down, 22 to ggo
Now we turn the telescope around and pick the Final Four teams. My formula is to pick two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and one less than that. I like Kansas with their excellent backcourt. I’m not sold on Gonzaga, who has yet to make a Final Four, despite reaching the #1 ranking in a couple of seasons. North Carolina probably has the best combination of inside and outside strength but they also have 7 losses, a large number for a #1 seed, even in a strong conference, although I note that the ACC’s nine teams had a total of 84 losses, a tribute to the gauntlet the conference was this year. Villanova has had a strong follow-up to their championship season. I also think they have the strongest #2 seed in Duke – unless that would be Arizona. I don’t think this is the year for Kentucky or Louisville.
Looking through the dark horses, I really like UCLA. They are still a pretty high seed, a three, (as we were in 2003). They are a cocky team but that can be a good thing if they have the stuff to back it up. Michigan is on a roll. SMU is very good but I don’t see them getting by both Duke and Villanova. Of course, there’s always the possibility someone else could bump off one of them and then not maintain that level of play so the path gets easier. It happens all the time- see Middle Tennessee last year. Notre Dame is a very solid team. West Virginia has had a strong season Their press could take them to the Final Four but probably not beyond that. Creighton and Oregon are missing key players. Purdue’s pretty good. They often are but it’s been decades since they played on the last weekend. Wichita State has made it there recently and they have a grudge with the committee. A 10 seed made it last year. But I think Lonzo Ball can do some business against their full-court press in the Sweet 16 game. Besides, by my formula, the 10 seed that advances to the Sweet 16 stops there. UCLA can certainly make that happen. It seems cowardly to take a 3 seed as my Cinderella in a year so competitively flat. But I just have a feeling about the Bruins.
That would leave the ACC without a Final Four team unless Duke can knock off Villanova. But the strength of this conference was in the quality of it’s top teams, although that was very good. It was in its top to bottom strength. I like Nova to get back to the Final Four so I’ll pick them and Arizona as my 2 seed. That leaves me with Villanova, Arizona, Kansas and UCLA. Filling them in to the Final Four gives me 12 picks so I’m up to 49 down, 14 to go.
Louisville is a strong team but they’ve kind of stumbled down the stretch with 3 losses in 5 games. I like the look of Michigan to beat them and to beat the Creighton-Oregon winner, which I think will be Oregon. Butler vs. Minnesota is a tough one: it should be an ugly game between two physical teams. Butler has an aggressive defense and Minnesota, per collegeinsiders.com, “have lacked composure at times. For as good as (Nate) Mason is, he can be erratic and take bad shots. They’ve also stumbled in the second half of games be have been better recently.” I’ll go with Butler. To beat them and then lose to UNC. SMU-Baylor should be an interesting confrontation. Two old SWC teams, (my favorite conference) who never thought about basketball in the old days but have now decided to get good at it. Ill got with Baylor’s athleticism in that one. South Carolina could give Duke a lot of trouble but I like the way the Blue Devils are playing and I’ll pick them to beat both the Gamecocks and the Bears before losing to Nova. I think Gonzaga has too mu h for Northwestern. Notre Dame-West Virginia could be a great game. The Irish are the kind of solid team that could withstand the Mountaineer press and I think they will win. But I think the Irish will have trouble dealing with Gonzaga’s size.
My Final Four will have a battle of Wildcats. Villanova has the most wins (31) at this point of any defending national champion. I saw one site comparing them to Florida, the last team to repeat. Arizona has 30 wins on their own and are mad that they didn’t get a #1 seed after winning the Pac 12, which was the strongest, (at least at the top) that they’d been for years. I just have a feeling that it stops here for Nova. UCLA actually has 6 double figure scorers. They also have plenty of size. Ball is a 6-6 point guard and two of those double figure scorers go 6-10 and 7-0. They lead the nation in shooting, scoring and assists. But Kansas was the #1 overall seed. They could have had a very different season: they were 9-1 in games decided by three points or less. But the NCAAs are all about winning close games. Frank Mason maybe the best guard in the country and a major player of the year candidate and Josh Jackson and Devonte Graham are also top players. I’m just not ready for an all-Pac 12 title game although I wouldn’t be surprised by one. Think the Pac 12 was the best conference at the top this year, just not as strong as the ACC top to bottom.
So I’ve got an Arizona vs. Kansas final and I’ll go with Kansas just because they seem due for another title after being in the hunt seemingly every year.
So I’ve done it all in one day and am still, (mostly) sane.
