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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 2528388, member: 289"] It’s time for that annual exercise in self-flagellation, the filling out of our annual NCAA basketball tournament prediction sheets. We are handicapped by two things: the awesome gap between our supposed knowledge of college basketball and our actual knowledge of it and the blank screen that is the future. I long ago realized that there is little relationship between the amount of time you spend on figuring things out and the accuracy of the results so I want to waste as few of the precious seconds of my remaining time on this earth doing my sheet so I’ve come up with a systematic method not of picking the correct winners but just of predicting something so I can get it done in a finite period of time. For several years I’ve been using the procedure I outlined in this post: [URL="https://syracusefan.com/threads/ncaa-seed-stats-updated-through-2017.128745/#post-2527338"]NCAA Seed Stats - updated through 2017[/URL] …and then picked the wrong upsets. I’m going to supplement that procedure by using the information in this post to help me pick the winners: [URL="https://syracusefan.com/threads/against-ranked-teams-fwiw.128788/"]Against Ranked teams - FWIW[/URL] I figure that will be at least as valid as my normal mental gymnastics and will save even more time. So here goes: Step One – Pick all the #1 seeds to win in the first round. Step Two- Pick all the #2 seeds to do the same, even though they are historically a little vulnerable. Step Three: Pick one #14 seed to beat a # seeds, then pick the other #3 seeds to win their games. Tennessee has +52 points. Wright State has 0. Michigan has +161 points, Montana 0. Texas Tech has +176, Stephen . Austin 0. Michigan State has +118, Bucknell #5. Bucknell is the best of the 14s but Tennessee is the worst of the 3’s and the differential is only +52 between them and their opponent, easily the lowest of the four match-ups. So, I’ll choose Wright State to upset Tennessee at the #3 vs.#14 line. Step Four: Pick one #13 seed to beat a #4 seed but the other #4 seeds all win. Arizona Is +42, Buffalo +10. Gonzaga is +65, UNC-Greensboro 0. Wichita State is +64, Marshall +24. Auburn is +28, Charleston +2. So I’ll go with Charleston to upset Auburn. Step Five: Pick one #12 seed to beat a #5 seed but have the other #5 seeds win. Kentucky is +65, Davidson +1. Ohio State is +50, South Dakota State -2. West Virginia is +111, Murray State 0. Clemson is +59, New Mexico State +16. So I’ll go with New Mexico State to beat Clemson. Step Six: Pick one #11 seed to beat a #6 seed but the other #6 seeds win, (this one has bene pretty shake in recent years as the #11 seeds are 6-2 in the last two tourneys) U of Miami is #71, Loyola-Chicago 0. Houston is +93, San Diego State +15. Florida is +117, St Bonaventure +13 and UCLA +19. Texas Christian is +84, Arizona State +66 and Syracuse +48. By the method I’ve decided to use, TCU is the #6 that will go down but, unfortunately, Arizona State is the team that will beat them. Three of the four upsets so far are in the Midwest regional. Step Seven: Pick two #10 seeds to upset #7 seeds but the #7s win the other two games. Nevada-Reno is only +2 and Texas +129, so that’s low hanging fruit. Texas A&M is +105 and Providence +92. Arkansas is +86, Butler +68. Rhode Island is +7 and Oklahoma +129 so that’s also pretty juicy. Texas and Oklahoma are the obvious choice for “upsets”. The committee apparently wasn’t that impressed with the Big 12. Step Eight: Pick two #9 seeds to beat #8 seeds but pick the other #8 seeds to win. Creighton is +85, Kansas State +19. Missouri is +22, Florida State +105. Virginia Tech is +87 but Alabama is +168. Seton Hall is #+73 but North Carolina State is +114. I’ll go with Florida State and Alabama to pull off the upsets here, but I don’t see them as upsets. I have now picked 32 of the 63 games without my mind exploding. Step Nine: Pick Your Final Four, consisting of two 1 seeds, a #2 seed and somebody else. Have one of the #1 seeds win the national championship. The top #1 seed against ranked teams is Kansas +122, followed by Virginia +119, Villanova +108 and Xavier +98. I should pick Kansas to make the Fianl Four and win it about I just don’t have confidence in that pick. I think the big 12 had a lot of good teams but no great ones and that this actually isn’t one of Kansas’ more impressive teams. I’ll pick the two ‘V’ teams and Virginia to win it all. “But they have a lousy record in the NCAA tournament.” So did Connecticut and even Duke- until they won it, again and again. Among the 2 seeds, Cincinnati is only +32. North Carolina is +117, Purdue +94 and Duke +154. I’ll go with the Dukies to knock off the Jayhawks in the regional final. (Kansas’ route there is paved with the 1st round upsets.) That means that the lower seeded Final Four team must come from the West. Florida State is +105, Ohio State +50, Gonzaga +65, Houston +93, Michigan +161 and Texas A&M +105. I like the way the Wolverines are playing so they are my other Final Four team. I’ve no picked 17 more games for a total of 49 out of 63. Step Ten: I need to pick a 10 seed to get to the Sweet 16 and stop there. Oklahoma runs into Duke so they can’t get there. It’s got to be Texas. The other 1st round upsetters are to lose: Wright State to Miami who will then beat Texas before losing to Virginia. Florida State will lose to Xavier. I already have Alabama losing to Villanova. New Mexico State is +16 and Charleston +2. One of them has to win so I’ll pick the Aggie to win that one and then lose to Kansas. That’s 54 of 63 games. Step Eleven: Do the best you can with the other 9 games. Kentucky is +65 and hot. Arizona is +42. Ohio State is +50 but Gonzaga is +65. Texas A&M is +105 but North Carolina is +117. West Virginia is ++111, Wichita State +64. Florida is +117 but Texas Tech is +176. Arkansas is +86 but Purdue is +94. Arizona State is +66 but Michigan State is +118. Xavier is +98, Gonzaga +65. Texas tech is +176, Purdue +94. Tiebreaker? The average score of the NCAA championship game in the last ten years has been 70-63. So I’ll guess the total points at 133. Done. Correct? Who knows? But it's done and I’ve still got a life. :cool: [/QUOTE]

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