SWC75
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I decided to take a look at the Sweet 16 as it stands. Again I have a short-cut: Pick your final four teams first. That gives you 8 of the 15 games based on only 4 decisions. Then fill out the rest of the regionals and see if your view of what will happen in the FF has changed any.
Again, on average since the tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, there have been two #1 seeds , a #2 seed and a lower-seeded team, usually a 3 or a 4, in the Final Four. I still think Kansas and North Carolina are the best teams. Kansas has too much firepower: Perry Ellis inside and their entire starting line shoots 39% or better form three point range. They are going to be hard to stop. So is North Carolina, a tall, deep team that always can score but found the joys of playing defense, too, in the ACC tournament. I see them not only in the Final Four but in the Final.
The #2 team in our region is out so I’ve either got to go with three #1 seeds or pick a #4 seed, a #10 seed or a #11 seed. I’ll pick the #4 seed, Iowa State. I don’t really know much about them, but they fit the pattern. I think Virginia’s supposed lack of NCAA success sin the Tony Bennett era has a lot to do with their running into Michigan State who isn’t here anymore. I remember for years Connecticut was known for having great regular season but doing nothing in the tournament. This could be the Hoo’s year to show everyone who they are, but I’ll stick with the plan.
That leaves #2 Oklahoma winning the West, as I originally projected, although Oregon has looked impressive against uncertain opposition.
I decided to make a list ranking the Sweet 16 according to how many points they’d beaten their opposition by in the first two rounds:
49- Villanova
44- Oregon, Virginia and Syracuse
39- Gonzaga
38- Kansas
35- North Carolina
31- Texas A&M
30- Iowa State
30- Indiana and Iowa State
18- Maryland
15- Duke and Miami
8- Notre Dame
7- Wisconsin
Despite the balance noted throughout the season and the wild games, comebacks and upsets of the first round, the fact is, most of the Sweet 16 are power conference teams and most of them got here pretty easily. We did very well but are hardly alone in that regard.
Filling out the regionals: Villanova, a supposed perennial NCAA bust, won by the most points of anybody. Miami is good but I think maybe the Wildcats will beat them and give Kansas a run for their money in the regional final. Oregon is playing well and this is not a classic Duke team. The Ducks will quack. The other side of the Eastern bracket opposite the Tar Heels is a mess. Wisconsin plays ugly ball and Notre Dame is very lucky to be there. I’ll pick the Badgers, who have been playing well down the stretch to win this one and then get stuck in the pine tar under UNC’s heels. That leaves Syracuse-Gonzaga. We badly beat two teams that had no inside game. This is not out r 2013 team, which was strong defensively at the center position. I’ve read some scenarios explaining who we will beat them and some of them sound convincing but I’ll go with this: most of the time, once we get a firm image of how far we think we can go in the tournament, we don’t make it that far. There has to be a kick in the pants. Similarly, if we are anticipating a match-up we’d like to have either to gain vengeance or prove ourselves against a top team, we often don’t get there. So I’ll pick the Zags. One last kick in the pants for SU fans, who have been feeling pretty good.
In the Final Four, North Carolina will make short work of Iowa State while Kansas win another classic against Oklahoma. Then they will out-shoot the Heels for the title.
So there you have it. What you choose to do with it is up to you.
Again, on average since the tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, there have been two #1 seeds , a #2 seed and a lower-seeded team, usually a 3 or a 4, in the Final Four. I still think Kansas and North Carolina are the best teams. Kansas has too much firepower: Perry Ellis inside and their entire starting line shoots 39% or better form three point range. They are going to be hard to stop. So is North Carolina, a tall, deep team that always can score but found the joys of playing defense, too, in the ACC tournament. I see them not only in the Final Four but in the Final.
The #2 team in our region is out so I’ve either got to go with three #1 seeds or pick a #4 seed, a #10 seed or a #11 seed. I’ll pick the #4 seed, Iowa State. I don’t really know much about them, but they fit the pattern. I think Virginia’s supposed lack of NCAA success sin the Tony Bennett era has a lot to do with their running into Michigan State who isn’t here anymore. I remember for years Connecticut was known for having great regular season but doing nothing in the tournament. This could be the Hoo’s year to show everyone who they are, but I’ll stick with the plan.
That leaves #2 Oklahoma winning the West, as I originally projected, although Oregon has looked impressive against uncertain opposition.
I decided to make a list ranking the Sweet 16 according to how many points they’d beaten their opposition by in the first two rounds:
49- Villanova
44- Oregon, Virginia and Syracuse
39- Gonzaga
38- Kansas
35- North Carolina
31- Texas A&M
30- Iowa State
30- Indiana and Iowa State
18- Maryland
15- Duke and Miami
8- Notre Dame
7- Wisconsin
Despite the balance noted throughout the season and the wild games, comebacks and upsets of the first round, the fact is, most of the Sweet 16 are power conference teams and most of them got here pretty easily. We did very well but are hardly alone in that regard.
Filling out the regionals: Villanova, a supposed perennial NCAA bust, won by the most points of anybody. Miami is good but I think maybe the Wildcats will beat them and give Kansas a run for their money in the regional final. Oregon is playing well and this is not a classic Duke team. The Ducks will quack. The other side of the Eastern bracket opposite the Tar Heels is a mess. Wisconsin plays ugly ball and Notre Dame is very lucky to be there. I’ll pick the Badgers, who have been playing well down the stretch to win this one and then get stuck in the pine tar under UNC’s heels. That leaves Syracuse-Gonzaga. We badly beat two teams that had no inside game. This is not out r 2013 team, which was strong defensively at the center position. I’ve read some scenarios explaining who we will beat them and some of them sound convincing but I’ll go with this: most of the time, once we get a firm image of how far we think we can go in the tournament, we don’t make it that far. There has to be a kick in the pants. Similarly, if we are anticipating a match-up we’d like to have either to gain vengeance or prove ourselves against a top team, we often don’t get there. So I’ll pick the Zags. One last kick in the pants for SU fans, who have been feeling pretty good.
In the Final Four, North Carolina will make short work of Iowa State while Kansas win another classic against Oklahoma. Then they will out-shoot the Heels for the title.
So there you have it. What you choose to do with it is up to you.
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