SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 34,006
- Like
- 65,626
Here’s my thinking, (if you could call it that), on how to fill out my NCAA sheet this year, using the percentages in my “NCAA Seed Stats” post to streamline the procedure, (which doesn’t say anything about accuracy) and USA Today’s preview section for some details. I just want to get this over quickly. After the first 5 minutes contemplating any match-up, the likelihood that further analysis will improve your pick goes down sharply.
FIRST ROUND
1 seeds vs. 16 seeds: 1 seeds are 124-0 since the tournament went to 64 teams in 1985. You want to be the first guy to pick a 16 seed and be right? Good luck. Even in this year where the 1 seeds have bene beaten 23 times, I’m going with Kansas, Oregon, North Carolina and Virginia. Maybe it’s not heavyweights vs. lightweights but its still light heavyweights vs. lightweights.
2 seeds vs. 15 seeds: Now here you’ve got a history of 7 upsets to back you up if you want to go out on a limb. But you’ve got 117 saws working on that limb. Even if you pick a 15 seed to win, you’ve got a 25% chance that you’re picking the right 15 seeds. I don’t like the odds and so am just writing in Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier and Michigan State. They actually have fewer losses than the 1 seeds: 22.
3 seeds vs. 14 seeds: I need one upset here. I can close my eyes and picture Buffalo beating Miami in the NFL but not here. I like Miami a lot with a pesky point guard, a shot blocking center and a top player in McClellan. I like them for a good run. Green Bay used to be known for slowball (we beat them 64-59 in ’94), when Dick Bennett, Tony’s father, was there. LInc Darner, (Linc Darner????) moved there this year from Florida Southern, who had won a D2 title with a 36-1 fast-breaking team. They were 6th in the country at 84PPG and were +5 in turnovers and had 10 steals a game. But Texas A&M likes to run, too, and they have more size and depth. They won the SEC regular season and almost won the tournament, too, losing to Kentucky in overtime. They just seem like much the better team. I don’t like running mid-majors to pull off first round upsets: they are better off in lower scoring games. I can’t see Stephen . Austin holding up under West Virginia’s pressure, (after all, he’s only one guy and an old guy at that). I’ll go with Fresno State to best Utah. They’ve won 9 in a row and won a much stronger conference, (the Mountain West) than the other 14 seeds. I’m surprised they are on that line. They use a lot of defensive pressure and Utah lacks depth: Miami, Texas A&M, West Virginia and Fresno State.
4 seeds vs. 13 seeds: I also need an upset here. I get a chance to use the tried and true method of many an office secretary: I know someone who went to Hawaii, specifically my big brother, who is a history professor there and has been hyping the Rainbow Warriors to me all season. US Today notes that they are “one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers” and their opponent, California “”lose(s) the turnover battle more often than not”. A friend of my brothers said the Golden Bears will win if they “bring their ‘A’ game” but that they don’t always do that. I like that one better than Duke losing to a fellow North Carolina team, (Wilmington), or Kentucky, who is coming on strong losing to Stony Brook. Iowa State-Iona is interesting but I’ll stick with Hawaii, Duke, Kentucky, Iowa State.
5 seeds vs. 12 seeds: Also need one upset here. The 12 seeds seems pretty strong. We are always talking about how some of the also-rans in the power conferences would dominate these lesser leagues. These teams did. South Dakota State, Yale, Chattanooga and Arkansas Little-Rock were 106-22 overall, (fewer losses than the 1 seeds), an average of 27-6. In conference they were 57-11, an average of 14-3. Purdue seems like the strongest 5th seed: they have tremendous size and have outscored opponents by 14 points and out rebounded them by 11. I think Maryland is good enough to top South Dakota State. I’m not so sure about Indiana vs. Chattanooga, who used “great team play on offense” to go 29-5. We all saw the Hoosier let Michigan off the hook in the first round of the Big 10 tournament. But these two comments truck me: Baylor “has a tendency to start slowly and get behind and then recover in the second half. It’s a dangerous way to operate in a single elimination tournament. “ Yale has won 17 of 18, almost beat SMU in Dallas and had a huge +11 rebounding margin. They “have potential as a giant killer in March.” I don’t see Baylor as a ”giant” but I think I have my upset right there: Maryland, Yale, Indian, Purdue.
6 seeds vs. 11 seeds: This is the last line where I need just the one upset. Wichita State and Gonzaga are teams that started out highly rate but were side-tracked by injuries and are now starting to play as people expected so they could be dangerous. I’m not impressed with Michigan, a streaky shooting, bad rebounding team, or Tulsa and Vanderbilt, the top choices for the “How did they get in?” crowd. Northern Iowa is interesting, having beaten UNC and Iowa State and won 12 of their last 13. Arizona seems like the strongest 6 seed, being ranked all year and having a run of highly ranked teams. They have three go-to- guys who are averaging over 15 a game. Notre Dame is vulnerable on defense. But I like them over Michigan or Tulsa. Seton Hall is becoming a popular team. They beat Villanova in the Big East final and is “playing exactly how you want to heading into the NCAAs.” Shaka Smart at Texas loves to press and is great on defense but, like VCU are a different team if you can handle their press. UNI, (no, not you and I), has three senior guards and is known for “strong defense and efficient offense”. And they won’t be intimidated by playing power conference team. That’s my upset: Arizona, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Seton Hall.
7 seeds vs 10 seeds: I admit I did this one first, for obvious reasons. I need two upsets here. I just don’t think we’re going to lose to Dayton twice in a row in the NCAAs. We were 0 for 10 from the arc against them last time and lost by 2 points. I don’t think that will happen again. They seems to be about as good as they were then. We are arguably worse as that team was a 28-6 team but I don’t think we are playing worse than we were then. That SU team lost 6 of their last 9. This one has lost 5 of 6but came close to beating UNC and Pitt. I also think they are going to respond to what seems to be a second chance at a positive end to the season. I like Gary Payton II to solve VCU’s press- the Rams are a different team when their press gets handled. In the other two games, I think it’s about “When you’re hot you’re hot and when you’re not you’re not. I don’t like ‘hot’ teams to make big NCAA runs and ‘cold’ teams sometimes turn it around in the tournament but for a first round game, I’ll go with the hot team. Wisconsin has recovered from their early season troubles and went 12-6 in the Big Ten. Pitt was 4-7 down the stretch with two of the wins against SU, a ream that they have historically dominated. The Badgers can bang with them. Iowa was also 12-6 in the Big Ten but they started 19-4, (10-1) and lost 6 of 8. Temple was 8-7 (3-2) in the Atlantic 10 and went 13-4, (11-2) after that. I still think Iowa is the best team but I need a second upset and that’s it: Temple, Oregon State, Wisconsin, Syracuse.
8 seeds vs. 9 seeds. I need two upsets here and I think there will be at least that amount as the 8’s have gone 7-1 in the last two years and that’s due to for a turn-around. I like the way Connecticut is playing and their record in the NCAA tournament in recent years is, of course, amazing. They are playing a Colorado team that rebounds well but has trouble playing hard for 40 minutes and holding on leads. The Huskies will play hard for 40 minutes. I love Providence against USC, a team that doesn’t play much defense that lost 5 of their last 7 “largely because of their turnover troubles and their inability to keep tams from scoring from scoring less than 75”. It’s funny: football, the lower scoring sport, seems to be transitioning into an era where you have to outscore people to win while basketball is in an era where defense wins games, the old football mantra. The Friars are “an all-around team that could go deep in the tournament” with “their quick defense that forces the most turnovers in the conference”. Imagine if they still had Chukwu! I see Texas Tech, coached by former national championship coach Tubby Smith against a Butler team that is now a running team but which went 2-7 vs. the tournament field. St. Joseph’s went 27-7 and has two legitimate stars in Isaiah Miles (18PPG) and DeAndre Bembry (17ppg). Cincy plays trough defense but I’ll stick with: Connecticut, St. Joseph’s, Providence and Texas Tech.
FIRST ROUND
1 seeds vs. 16 seeds: 1 seeds are 124-0 since the tournament went to 64 teams in 1985. You want to be the first guy to pick a 16 seed and be right? Good luck. Even in this year where the 1 seeds have bene beaten 23 times, I’m going with Kansas, Oregon, North Carolina and Virginia. Maybe it’s not heavyweights vs. lightweights but its still light heavyweights vs. lightweights.
2 seeds vs. 15 seeds: Now here you’ve got a history of 7 upsets to back you up if you want to go out on a limb. But you’ve got 117 saws working on that limb. Even if you pick a 15 seed to win, you’ve got a 25% chance that you’re picking the right 15 seeds. I don’t like the odds and so am just writing in Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier and Michigan State. They actually have fewer losses than the 1 seeds: 22.
3 seeds vs. 14 seeds: I need one upset here. I can close my eyes and picture Buffalo beating Miami in the NFL but not here. I like Miami a lot with a pesky point guard, a shot blocking center and a top player in McClellan. I like them for a good run. Green Bay used to be known for slowball (we beat them 64-59 in ’94), when Dick Bennett, Tony’s father, was there. LInc Darner, (Linc Darner????) moved there this year from Florida Southern, who had won a D2 title with a 36-1 fast-breaking team. They were 6th in the country at 84PPG and were +5 in turnovers and had 10 steals a game. But Texas A&M likes to run, too, and they have more size and depth. They won the SEC regular season and almost won the tournament, too, losing to Kentucky in overtime. They just seem like much the better team. I don’t like running mid-majors to pull off first round upsets: they are better off in lower scoring games. I can’t see Stephen . Austin holding up under West Virginia’s pressure, (after all, he’s only one guy and an old guy at that). I’ll go with Fresno State to best Utah. They’ve won 9 in a row and won a much stronger conference, (the Mountain West) than the other 14 seeds. I’m surprised they are on that line. They use a lot of defensive pressure and Utah lacks depth: Miami, Texas A&M, West Virginia and Fresno State.
4 seeds vs. 13 seeds: I also need an upset here. I get a chance to use the tried and true method of many an office secretary: I know someone who went to Hawaii, specifically my big brother, who is a history professor there and has been hyping the Rainbow Warriors to me all season. US Today notes that they are “one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers” and their opponent, California “”lose(s) the turnover battle more often than not”. A friend of my brothers said the Golden Bears will win if they “bring their ‘A’ game” but that they don’t always do that. I like that one better than Duke losing to a fellow North Carolina team, (Wilmington), or Kentucky, who is coming on strong losing to Stony Brook. Iowa State-Iona is interesting but I’ll stick with Hawaii, Duke, Kentucky, Iowa State.
5 seeds vs. 12 seeds: Also need one upset here. The 12 seeds seems pretty strong. We are always talking about how some of the also-rans in the power conferences would dominate these lesser leagues. These teams did. South Dakota State, Yale, Chattanooga and Arkansas Little-Rock were 106-22 overall, (fewer losses than the 1 seeds), an average of 27-6. In conference they were 57-11, an average of 14-3. Purdue seems like the strongest 5th seed: they have tremendous size and have outscored opponents by 14 points and out rebounded them by 11. I think Maryland is good enough to top South Dakota State. I’m not so sure about Indiana vs. Chattanooga, who used “great team play on offense” to go 29-5. We all saw the Hoosier let Michigan off the hook in the first round of the Big 10 tournament. But these two comments truck me: Baylor “has a tendency to start slowly and get behind and then recover in the second half. It’s a dangerous way to operate in a single elimination tournament. “ Yale has won 17 of 18, almost beat SMU in Dallas and had a huge +11 rebounding margin. They “have potential as a giant killer in March.” I don’t see Baylor as a ”giant” but I think I have my upset right there: Maryland, Yale, Indian, Purdue.
6 seeds vs. 11 seeds: This is the last line where I need just the one upset. Wichita State and Gonzaga are teams that started out highly rate but were side-tracked by injuries and are now starting to play as people expected so they could be dangerous. I’m not impressed with Michigan, a streaky shooting, bad rebounding team, or Tulsa and Vanderbilt, the top choices for the “How did they get in?” crowd. Northern Iowa is interesting, having beaten UNC and Iowa State and won 12 of their last 13. Arizona seems like the strongest 6 seed, being ranked all year and having a run of highly ranked teams. They have three go-to- guys who are averaging over 15 a game. Notre Dame is vulnerable on defense. But I like them over Michigan or Tulsa. Seton Hall is becoming a popular team. They beat Villanova in the Big East final and is “playing exactly how you want to heading into the NCAAs.” Shaka Smart at Texas loves to press and is great on defense but, like VCU are a different team if you can handle their press. UNI, (no, not you and I), has three senior guards and is known for “strong defense and efficient offense”. And they won’t be intimidated by playing power conference team. That’s my upset: Arizona, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Seton Hall.
7 seeds vs 10 seeds: I admit I did this one first, for obvious reasons. I need two upsets here. I just don’t think we’re going to lose to Dayton twice in a row in the NCAAs. We were 0 for 10 from the arc against them last time and lost by 2 points. I don’t think that will happen again. They seems to be about as good as they were then. We are arguably worse as that team was a 28-6 team but I don’t think we are playing worse than we were then. That SU team lost 6 of their last 9. This one has lost 5 of 6but came close to beating UNC and Pitt. I also think they are going to respond to what seems to be a second chance at a positive end to the season. I like Gary Payton II to solve VCU’s press- the Rams are a different team when their press gets handled. In the other two games, I think it’s about “When you’re hot you’re hot and when you’re not you’re not. I don’t like ‘hot’ teams to make big NCAA runs and ‘cold’ teams sometimes turn it around in the tournament but for a first round game, I’ll go with the hot team. Wisconsin has recovered from their early season troubles and went 12-6 in the Big Ten. Pitt was 4-7 down the stretch with two of the wins against SU, a ream that they have historically dominated. The Badgers can bang with them. Iowa was also 12-6 in the Big Ten but they started 19-4, (10-1) and lost 6 of 8. Temple was 8-7 (3-2) in the Atlantic 10 and went 13-4, (11-2) after that. I still think Iowa is the best team but I need a second upset and that’s it: Temple, Oregon State, Wisconsin, Syracuse.
8 seeds vs. 9 seeds. I need two upsets here and I think there will be at least that amount as the 8’s have gone 7-1 in the last two years and that’s due to for a turn-around. I like the way Connecticut is playing and their record in the NCAA tournament in recent years is, of course, amazing. They are playing a Colorado team that rebounds well but has trouble playing hard for 40 minutes and holding on leads. The Huskies will play hard for 40 minutes. I love Providence against USC, a team that doesn’t play much defense that lost 5 of their last 7 “largely because of their turnover troubles and their inability to keep tams from scoring from scoring less than 75”. It’s funny: football, the lower scoring sport, seems to be transitioning into an era where you have to outscore people to win while basketball is in an era where defense wins games, the old football mantra. The Friars are “an all-around team that could go deep in the tournament” with “their quick defense that forces the most turnovers in the conference”. Imagine if they still had Chukwu! I see Texas Tech, coached by former national championship coach Tubby Smith against a Butler team that is now a running team but which went 2-7 vs. the tournament field. St. Joseph’s went 27-7 and has two legitimate stars in Isaiah Miles (18PPG) and DeAndre Bembry (17ppg). Cincy plays trough defense but I’ll stick with: Connecticut, St. Joseph’s, Providence and Texas Tech.
