Season statistics commentary

[Cuse_MN]

Who has JS averaging more ppg than CJ after 13 games?

Minutes by guards:
Dion 280
BT 279
Scoop 278
MCW 165
...top three playing almost exact same mpg, coincidence?

we are shooting 48% vs opponents at 38%, a 10 pt spread. for context I looked up the 2009/2010 team who was at 51.6% shooting vs 40% defensive fg%. Interesting that team was considered one of the better defensive teams yet this team is not only holding teams to a lower fg% but they are also averaging more steals and more blocks per game than in 09/10.

JS, KJ and BT have shot 56% of our 3-pt shots and are making a combined 41.7%. We need to continue to knock down the three ball to offset a weakish post presence on the offensive end.

 

[jdubs30]

We are like 6th in the BE for OppFG%. I think we'll be top 2 once the season is done, but I found that interesting. UConn is #1 at around 35%

 

[moqui]

Who has JS averaging more ppg than CJ after 13 games?

we are shooting 48% vs opponents at 38%, a 10 pt spread. for context I looked up the 2009/2010 team who was at 51.6% shooting vs 40% defensive fg%.

I don't have those numbers for the 09-10 team. For the season, their spread was .516 to .487 (not the 40% you cite); but that was against much more difficult competition (the entire BE schedule, at Memphis, the BET and the NCAAT).

Comparing like with like (or, as much as possible given that normalizing for schedule difficulty is highly subjective), look at the numbers for each squad through 13 games. That tells a completely different story:

Through 13 games, the 09-10 team is outperforming this squad in every category, on both ends of the floor.

Although, the current squad is generally outperforming the 09-10 squad in the specialty stats of Points Off Turnovers, Fast Break Points, etc. The last comparison I did on specialty stats was through 11 games, if you want to see the full breakdown. Over the weekend or next week I will update it through 13 games.

 

[Knicks411]

I was going to start a thread, but I guess I can jump in here.

I was pretty surprised to see we're now second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Part of that is based on all the turnovers we are forcing on defense, but we're top 10 in the country in both offensive rebounding (not huge surprise, we are generally in the top 40 at worst in this)) and turnover % (big surprise, we are usually outside the top 100).

So yes, the 2010 team was outperforming this one based on shooting percentages (and that was probably the best shooting team we've ever had) but I don't remember them ever being #2 in offensive efficiency. They finished the year 8th, so I believe they were inside the top 10 most of the year, but I don't remember being as high as 2. Defensively, we're basically at the same level right now as 2010. Funny, we are 16th in defensive efficiency this year, were 16th last year, and 18th in 2010. Pattern seems to be developing.

Anyway, here are just the raw numbers for the first 13 games of 2010 vs the first 13 this year. Not adjusted for schedule or anything like that.

2011-12: Scoring 1.18 points per possession, allowing .87 points per possession.
2009-2010: Scoring 1.18 points per possession, allowing .84.

So without adjusting for schedules, the 10 team has the slight advantage, and it comes from defense. Pretty crazy that they are about the same offensively though, isn't it? Doesn't "feel" that way.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Pretty crazy that they are about the same offensively though, isn't it? Doesn't "feel" that way.

Spot on.

I think the reason may be because our leading scorer can be any number of guys in any game this year. We have a different "hot hand" every night aside from Kris who is a pretty constant 15ppg guy rather than a couple "go to" guys. Good thing about that is, if we as fans don't know, the defense really doesn't know who to plan for.

In 09-10 I felt like every shot that left Wes' or Andy's hands was going in and was shocked when they didn't. Also, Arinze around the hoop rarely missed which is a bit of a contrast to this years bugs so far.

 

[jdubs30]

I was going to start a thread, but I guess I can jump in here.

I was pretty surprised to see we're now second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Part of that is based on all the turnovers we are forcing on defense, but we're top 10 in the country in both offensive rebounding (not huge surprise, we are generally in the top 40 at worst in this)) and turnover % (big surprise, we are usually outside the top 100).

So yes, the 2010 team was outperforming this one based on shooting percentages (and that was probably the best shooting team we've ever had) but I don't remember them ever being #2 in offensive efficiency. They finished the year 8th, so I believe they were inside the top 10 most of the year, but I don't remember being as high as 2. Defensively, we're basically at the same level right now as 2010. Funny, we are 16th in defensive efficiency this year, were 16th last year, and 18th in 2010. Pattern seems to be developing.

Anyway, here are just the raw numbers for the first 13 games of 2010 vs the first 13 this year. Not adjusted for schedule or anything like that.

2011-12: Scoring 1.18 points per possession, allowing .87 points per possession.
2009-2010: Scoring 1.18 points per possession, allowing .84.

So without adjusting for schedules, the 10 team has the slight advantage, and it comes from defense. Pretty crazy that they are about the same offensively though, isn't it? Doesn't "feel" that way.

I have that "feeling" too. I think it comes from the depth though. If you look at the 09-10 team, we knew that Wes was gonna put up 16+ every game and AR was gonna hit his share of 3's, and everything else just kinda came together.

With this team we have no idea who's gonna score. Dion/Kris/Scoop/BT/Southerland could all go for 15 at any given time. Then you'll see Fair/Melo putting up 10-12pts some games.

If Wes was in single digits in 09, we were most likely in trouble. If any of those 7 guys I just listed are in single digits in any given game, no one worries, because we have 6 other guys who are capable.

If you have the same 2 or 3 guys putting up 14+ a game, it just seems like the offense is more efficient, when in reality it isn't any different than 5 guys putting up 8-9pts a game.

This post probably didn't make sense to read, but it made sense in my head.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I can vouch for Moqui on that one.

 

[moqui]

Pretty crazy that they are about the same offensively though, isn't it? Doesn't "feel" that way.

I think it doesn't "feel" that way because we all know that this team lacks the low post weapon. They haven't needed it (although, it for sure would have slowed if not stopped NCSU's second half run), so it doesn't show up in the results, but we all know that the nearly automatic option that Arinze gave the 09-10 team in critical moments just doesn't exist - yet - on this squad.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think it doesn't "feel" that way because we all know that this team lacks the low post weapon. They haven't needed it (although, it for sure would have slowed if not stopped NCSU's second half run), so it doesn't show up in the results, but we all know that the nearly automatic option that Arinze gave the 09-10 team in critical moments just doesn't exist - yet - on this squad.

Yup. Arinze wasn't a legendary college player or anything, but his ability to score in the post is a rare asset in the NBA, let alone college hoops.

FWIW, I think Arinze was really underused for much of his career. I know the foul shooting was an adventure, but I think our guards, Flynn in particular, should have looked for him more.

 

[moqui]

here is a breakdown of individual shooting percentages - overall, 2 pt., 3 pt., and FT

Two things jump right out at me: First is that, in addition to being the teams best 3 point threat, James is absolutely shredding it from within the arc. Only BMK, who doesn't take a shot outside of 3 feet, is converting at a higher percentage. This is why I wish James would set up more frequently at the high post. He has the shot to convert from there and the vision to find cutting teammates. If he ever gets consistent on his drive to become a true triple threat from that spot, wow.

The second thing that jumps out is how, of the 8 top guys, the two poorest shooters from the field are the two best free throw shooters. On the one hand, one would hope that Kris and Brandon would not take so many difficult shots; on the other hand, they are the guys you want taking shots that tend to draw fouls.

 

[Knicks411]

I think it doesn't "feel" that way because we all know that this team lacks the low post weapon. They haven't needed it (although, it for sure would have slowed if not stopped NCSU's second half run), so it doesn't show up in the results, but we all know that the nearly automatic option that Arinze gave the 09-10 team in critical moments just doesn't exist - yet - on this squad.

That is definitely it, well at least part of it.

If we need a bucket this year, I am still not sure when it's coming from. Probably Dion off a screen or Kris slashing from the wing, but neither of those guys were shooting over 60% from the field.

I also think part of it is because we aren't blowing people away with our shooting percentages. We're 21st in EFG%, which is obviously very good, but we were second in 2010. The biggest strength of our offense is the lack of mistakes; we don't turn it over, which means more shots get put up, and we also have a great OR%, so even if we miss those extra shots, we're going to get some of those misses.

If you have one team that shoots 55%, and the other team shoots 52% or whatever, as a fan watching the games, we're probably always going to think th eteam that shoots better is the better offense.

We kind of have a Pitt offensive profile, as much as that might hurt people to read. They are always a great offensive team, but it is usually more because of the offensive glass, and to a lesser extent, the turnovers.

Edit: Moqui, I was on the Pom page today, the 2 point shooting% of James jumped out to me as well. As stupid as it sounds, his goal should be to lower that %, because it means he's taking more shots.

 

[moqui]

Knicks, as a side note, Southerland's 22 minutes last night put him over the 40% minutes played threshold, so he will show up in the national rankings when Pomeroy updates his player stats.

 

[Knicks411]

Yes!

He's going to be running away with it too.

There must be some kind of possession minimum too though; because all the guys in the top 10, for instance, have used 28% of possessions or more.

For example, looking at last year's list, Jon Diebler doesn't show up, though he had a 140.6. Ah, I get it now. They will be ranked on the team page, but not on the national leader list. Southerland is currently 140.7, so he's ahead of last year's leader.

 

[moqui]

If you scroll down, he re-starts the list for each level of usage. I am not sure if James will qualify for the "at least 20% of possessions" level, but he will be top ten among all players, the final section.

 

[Knicks411]

Never noticed that.

Just looked up the dude who is #1. Shooting a cool 84% from the field. Missouri has 2 guys in the top 10. Not bad.

 

[moqui]

He's hitting 83% from the line, too. I am pretty sure that the parenthetical number after the offensive rating is the percentage of possessions used. That #1 kid is only 13.5%. I see that he draws an average of 4.8 fouls every 40 minutes, so that explains his low usage - he can't stay on the floor.

James will certainly be in the top 10. I am curious as to what is precise use rate is, though.

 

[SoBristol]

This team doesn't have a comparable post presence (vs 2009-10) but the current group is better in the dribble drive to set things up.

 

[OttoMets]

FWIW, I think Arinze was really underused for much of his career. I know the foul shooting was an adventure, but I think our guards, Flynn in particular, should have looked for him more.

Whaaaat? You'd rather give touches to the person who makes 60% of his shots than give touches to those who make 40% of their shots?That's crazy talk.

It's insane that Arinze wasn't getting 25 touches a game (and getting real help with his free throws). He had a perfectly good career but could've scored over 20 a night if he hadn't been so misused.

 

[Knicks411]

It really is astonishing how high a % AO shot. I remember after the 2008 season (his first year as a rotation player) looking at his fg%, which was like 63% and thinking that while he probably wasn't going to shoot quite that high, certainly we could expect high 50's or so. But 2008 was actually his worst season from a FG% standpoint! He went 63, 67 and 67. (I also remember thinking he was going to improve on that 45% from the FT line, so I missed both calls).

Guys just don't shoot 65% from the field. It just doesn't happen. And AO wasn't a dunks only guy. Sure, he was a low post player, but he got a lot of buckets on his own from posting up.

 

[moqui]

It really is astonishing how high a % AO shot. I remember after the 2008 season (his first year as a rotation player) looking at his fg%, which was like 63% and thinking that while he probably wasn't going to shoot quite that high, certainly we could expect high 50's or so. But 2008 was actually his worst season from a FG% standpoint! He went 63, 67 and 67. (I also remember thinking he was going to improve on that 45% from the FT line, so I missed both calls).

Guys just don't shoot 65% from the field. It just doesn't happen. And AO wasn't a dunks only guy. Sure, he was a low post player, but he got a lot of buckets on his own from posting up.

he was the perfect NCAAT weapon, for those grind it out possessions that you simply have to convert. I'm not usually one to say a single missing player would be that big a difference, but I am as close to certain as you can get that SU would have won the title that year with a healthy AO. Certainly would have beaten Butler - he would have converted or he would have fouled out their bigs trying to stop him.

 

[moqui]

Yes!

He's going to be running away with it too.

There must be some kind of possession minimum too though; because all the guys in the top 10, for instance, have used 28% of possessions or more.

For example, looking at last year's list, Jon Diebler doesn't show up, though he had a 140.6. Ah, I get it now. They will be ranked on the team page, but not on the national leader list. Southerland is currently 140.7, so he's ahead of last year's leader.

OK, the updated stats are out.

Dirty's Offensive Rating of 144.6 is 3rd in the nation (and, answering my own question, he figures in 18.1% of the team's possessions).

Dion sits at 4th in the nation in steal percentage; Scoop is 20th and James 22nd, giving the Orange 3 of the top 25.

The only other top 25 rating for an Orangeman is Fab sitting at 17th in block percentage.

 

[Knicks411]

Wow, I had no idea Scoop had an EFG at 60%. 67% of his 2's! That's AO like!! (Not quite Southerland like).