Seeding scenarios

[Eric15]

I think our "worst case scenario" if we were to lose out from here is a 4 seed. I know we will have finished very poorly but I just don't see a 26-6 team being lower than a 4.

Beat FSU and lose in ACC qtrs: 4 seed
Beat FSU and lose in ACC semis: 3 seed
Beat FSU and lose in ACC title game: on cusp of 2/3 seed, probably 2
Beat FSU and win ACCT: 2 seed

I know last night really really really sucked, but the 1997, 2002, 2007-2008 version of you would look at the 2014 version of you and say, "seriously, you're upset right now?" Let's get Stefon Urkell (Jerami) healthy and anything is possible.

This is a wide open field this year - Michigan State and Kentucky have been struggling big-time as well, but could regroup and make a run at a Final Four.

 

[Marsh01]

Depends on what other teams do as well. Creighton losing 2 straight has helped. Iowa State lost last night. I dont see us dropping to a 4 seed. I really dont. I think a 3 seed is the worst case scenario.

Grant's return completely healthy will dictate what we do the rest of the season. If this thing lingers for another 3 weeks then start booking your tee times. I still would keep him out this weekend. No reason to play him whatsoever if he isnt 100%. Give him another 9-10 days off and get this thing fixed. By then one would think he should be ok to go.

 

[Ryand877]

Question about acc seeding. If my thinking is correct (assuming duke beats wf tonight ), the only way we can be a 4 seed in acc tourney is if we lose to Fsu and Carolina beats duke Sunday. Is that correct ?

 

[Marsh01]

Question about acc seeding. If my thinking is correct (assuming duke beats wf tonight ), the only way we can be a 4 seed in acc tourney is if we lose to Fsu and Carolina beats duke Sunday. Is that correct ?

correct

 

[quentin cassidy]

If we were somehow able to win out from here, can anyone explain to me why we wouldn't receive serious consideration for a #1 seed? We might need a couple of other teams to lose a game somewhere along the way, but our resume against highly-rated teams would be fantastic, especially if we have to beat 2 of UNC/Duke/Virginia to win it.

We would be a combined 5-2 against the RPI Top 25, with the only 2 losses coming on the road, and 1 of those being the result of being hosed on several calls late in the game. In this scenario, assuming Florida, Arizona, and Wichita St win out, who else would still be ahead of us for the 1 seed?

 

[Marsh01]

If we were somehow able to win out from here, can anyone explain to me why we wouldn't receive serious consideration for a #1 seed? We might need a couple of other teams to lose a game somewhere along the way, but our resume against highly-rated teams would be fantastic, especially if we have to beat 2 of UNC/Duke/Virginia to win it.

We would be a combined 5-2 against the RPI Top 25, with the only 2 losses coming on the road, and 1 of those being the result of being hosed on several calls late in the game. In this scenario, assuming Florida, Arizona, and Wichita St win out, who else would still be ahead of us for the 1 seed?

I dont think anyone is arguing we wont if we win the ACC tourney. Its more a matter of we probably cant win the ACC tourney.

 

[quentin cassidy]

I dont think anyone is arguing we wont if we win the ACC tourney. Its more a matter of we probably cant win the ACC tourney.

We didn't have Keita for the BC game.
We played very well at Duke and lost because every 50/50 call went Duke's way late in the game.
We haven't had Grant the past 2 games.

IIRC, most people felt things were pretty hopeless last year when we lost 4 of our last 5, including getting blown out by Georgetown. The rest of the season went pretty well. We aren't good enough to blow the doors off anyone, but if Grant comes back and Cooney starts to hit a few shots, we are certainly capable of making a run.

 

[Marsh01]

We didn't have Keita for the BC game.
We played very well at Duke and lost because every 50/50 call went Duke's way late in the game.
We haven't had Grant the past 2 games.

IIRC, most people felt things were pretty hopeless last year when we lost 4 of our last 5, including getting blown out by Georgetown. The rest of the season went pretty well. We aren't good enough to blow the doors off anyone, but if Grant comes back and Cooney starts to hit a few shots, we are certainly capable of making a run.

Hell you know how I feel. I already have my 2014 ACC Tournament banner hung in the man cave

 

[690West]

http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stevens/index.ssf/2014/03/acc_basketball_full_conference.html

 

[NineOneSeven]

If we were somehow able to win out from here, can anyone explain to me why we wouldn't receive serious consideration for a #1 seed? We might need a couple of other teams to lose a game somewhere along the way, but our resume against highly-rated teams would be fantastic, especially if we have to beat 2 of UNC/Duke/Virginia to win it.

We would be a combined 5-2 against the RPI Top 25, with the only 2 losses coming on the road, and 1 of those being the result of being hosed on several calls late in the game. In this scenario, assuming Florida, Arizona, and Wichita St win out, who else would still be ahead of us for the 1 seed?

At this point, winning at Fla St would be a thrill for me.

 

[Maxsumm]

I don't disagree with the point that our floor ia 4 seed, but one thing to keep in mind is that the committee takes into account injuries and we are claerly not the same team w/o Grant. If they feel Grant won't play, that may drop our seeding..

 

[HoustonCuse]

At this point, winning at Fla St would be a thrill for me.

Correction, not losing at Fla St would be a thrill. There is a difference!

 

[Ryand877]

I don't disagree with the point that our floor ia 4 seed, but one thing to keep in mind is that the committee takes into account injuries and we are claerly not the same team w/o Grant. If they feel Grant won't play, that may drop our seeding..

I got the impression from the presser last night that Boeheim thought Grant could be back for Sunday. Could simply be a coaching tactic, but I think that Grant should also sit on Sunday, even if it means another loss unfortunately and if he is pain-free. Being pain free does not mean being healthy, ie Keita. Having Grant healthy in the NCAA is much more important than a less than 100% Grant in the NCAA at maybe one seed higher if he were to play Sunday and we win. That being said, I think it is important for seeding that he try to play in the ACC tournament.

 

[quentin cassidy]

I don't disagree with the point that our floor ia 4 seed, but one thing to keep in mind is that the committee takes into account injuries and we are claerly not the same team w/o Grant. If they feel Grant won't play, that may drop our seeding..

By the same token, if we play well in the ACC tourney with Grant, the losses we've suffered recently won't be viewed as harshly.

 

[HoustonCuse]

I was worried about a serious seeding backlash from our end of season schedule and it looks like it could happen. Just knowing the tough road games we had lined up. @Duke, @UM, @Va, @FSU. Even playing very well it would not be shocking to go 2-2 or 1-3 in those games. And of course it is going to look like the wheels had come off, we are a fraud, etc. A 1 seed was always going to be extremely tough to get just because of perceptions. The problem now is not so much our record, but that it appears that the wheels have truly come off. There is not a Div 1 team in the country right now that we would be confident in playing on a neutral court.

 

[two3zone]

By the same token, if we play well in the ACC tourney with Grant, the losses we've suffered recently won't be viewed as harshly.

Not true at all. No matter what we do in the ACCT these losses are going to affect us. There are bad losses and there are excusable losses.

 

[quentin cassidy]

Not true at all. No matter what we do in the ACCT these losses are going to affect us. There are bad losses and there are excusable losses.

I agree 100% with your second sentence. But if we do well in the ACCT, they won't affect us as much. If we beat FSU and make it to the ACCT finals (beating UVA, Duke or UNC in the semis) I would almost guarantee we'll be a 2 seed. The committee isn't supposed to put extra weight on the last 10 games anymore. 29-5 is a very impressive season, regardless of how we got there.

 

[Knicks411]

Not having Keita for the BC game doesn't do much for me, similar but a little different with Grant. We shouldn't need Keita to beat BC at home. Ditto Grant and Ga Tech, though obviously Jerami is a much bigger player for us.

 

[quentin cassidy]

Our last 6 wins are by an average of FOUR points. We have no one who's ready to play beyond our top 7 guys. It should be obvious to anyone who's paying attention that losing any of our top 6 players would make it extremely difficult for us to be a winning team. Realistic fans do not feel entitled to beat teams like BC and Ga Tech 100% of the time simply because of the name on the front of our jerseys. Wearing a Syracuse jersey doesn't automatically mean that a kid who hasn't played more than 20 meaningful minutes of college basketball is going to be anything but a major liability for us against any average Division 1 program.

 

[Knicks411]

BC is a terrible team. If we need a backup C who has hands of stone to beat a team who we were 20 point favorites over, then we aren't that good with Keita. (I dont think that is the case, I think the team that took the floor that night beats BC at least 9 out of 10 with or without Keita)

 

[HoustonCuse]

Wearing a Syracuse jersey doesn't automatically mean that a kid who hasn't played more than 20 meaningful minutes of college basketball is going to be anything but a major liability for us against any average Division 1 program.

When that player is a former player of the year in New Jersey, it sorta does mean he shouldn't be a major liability. Gmac, Jonny, and Carmelo each did pretty well in their first games with less than 20 minutes of meaningful college basketball.

 

[quentin cassidy]

When that player is a former player of the year in New Jersey, it sorta does mean he shouldn't be a major liability. Gmac, Jonny, and Carmelo each did pretty well in their first games with less than 20 minutes of meaningful college basketball.

Melo was a once-or-twice-in-a-decade talent at the college level. In the past 10 years, Durant and Anthony Davis are probably the only guys who were ready to make that big of an impact right out of the gate. I was as big a Gmac fan as anyone, but the biggest reason he was so good as a freshman was because he was playing with Melo - it's no coincidence that his highest fg% of his career was as a freshman.

I also think it's much harder for a freshman to learn how to play on the back line of the zone than as a guard. Besides Carmelo, what other forwards have had really good freshman years since we've gone exclusively to zone. Practically every freshman playing big time college hoops was 1st team all-state somewhere, so that is completely useless to me when deciding how good the kid should be expected to be as a freshman.