Serious Question: How does the ACC-ND deal differ from BIGEAST deal

[nralecuse]

I know ND agreed to 4 games vs ACC teams every year, and $50 Mil exit fee. Something regarding tier two bowl access, No FB monies split, and 1/16th of the BB monies split. Is this the deal they had with the Big East? If so why believe as some have stated that this is the first step to full membership?
GO ORANGE !

 

[longtimefan]

I know ND agreed to 4 games vs ACC teams every year, and $50 Mil exit fee. Something regarding tier two bowl access, No FB monies split, and 1/16th of the BB monies split. Is this the deal they had with the Big East? If so why believe as some have stated that this is the first step to full membership?
GO ORANGE !

The ACC deal is similar to the BE deal. But there are significant differences. The most important are the contactual nature of the football arrangement, vs. whatever sort of gentlemen's agreement the BE had. And the $50M exit fee (soon to become ~$60M).

[And, ND will play 5 games/year vs ACC, not 4. Also, the ND cut will be 1/15 of the 20% of revenues that is the basketball share.]

As to full membership--who knows?

 

[MaxwellCuse]

I think it is also significant that Notre Dame will not have ANY basketball-only allies in the ACC with which to unduly influence -- and even control -- conference decision-making.

 

[Townie72]

I know ND agreed to 4 games vs ACC teams every year, and $50 Mil exit fee. Something regarding tier two bowl access, No FB monies split, and 1/16th of the BB monies split. Is this the deal they had with the Big East? If so why believe as some have stated that this is the first step to full membership?
GO ORANGE !

Others may be better at responding to this, but I'll take a crack.

The critical difference is that it is 5 games a year and that it is a contractual requirement as opposed to the Big East situation in which it was 3 games a year and a handshake agreement. When ND made the agreement with the Big East it may have been "we will try to schedule 3 Big East teams, if we can" basis as opposed to the ironclad guarantee that some NBE and NNBE proponents have chosen to understand. Who knows? That's why you write important things down and sign them.

Now playing 5 games a year in a conference will have an affect on ND. Especially if some rivalries start to develop. And if the Conference starts to heat up --- i.e. FSU and Miami and others start to come out of their Ichabod Crane-like naps --- then the ACC beccomes a more attractive place for ND to be.

But the key to this is what happens to ND's TV contract as an independent. If ND continues to lose luster and viewers than it may be that Conference membership will appear more and more attractive as NBC becomes more unwilling to pony up big bucks for a product not justified by the number of eyeballs watching. If, on the other hand, they can continue to make a lot more money as an Independent, that that's what they will remain.

I would guess the people predicting (or guaranteeing) that ND will join the ACC are outlooking a significant fall in the value of the NBC contract to ND. Or they are envisioning a situation where ND can be an ACC member and still enjoy the fruits of their popularity as a TV property.

 

[Chris02M]

i think a perfect storm could get nd to join acc in football.big10 moving to 9 conference games,nbc doesnt offer big bucks that nd expects(over 20mil/yr) acc moving back to 8 conference games as condition for nd to join.ncaa making 13 game regular seasons allowed .with 8 game schedule nd could play usc,stanford,navy ,1 big 10 team and an open team


but i dont anticape it happening for at last 5-7 years

 

[Tom Frey]

Does ND get a full vote on conference matters? IMO, that was part of the problem with ND and the BE. ND could and did vote down tv contracts that were based mostly on football money. I really hope the ACC does not give them a vote untill they become a full member.

 

[tep624]

Others may be better at responding to this, but I'll take a crack.

The critical difference is that it is 5 games a year and that it is a contractual requirement as opposed to the Big East situation in which it was 3 games a year and a handshake agreement. When ND made the agreement with the Big East it may have been "we will try to schedule 3 Big East teams, if we can" basis as opposed to the ironclad guarantee that some NBE and NNBE proponents have chosen to understand. Who knows? That's why you write important things down and sign them.

Now playing 5 games a year in a conference will have an affect on ND. Especially if some rivalries start to develop. And if the Conference starts to heat up --- i.e. FSU and Miami and others start to come out of their Ichabod Crane-like naps --- then the ACC beccomes a more attractive place for ND to be.

But the key to this is what happens to ND's TV contract as an independent. If ND continues to lose luster and viewers than it may be that Conference membership will appear more and more attractive as NBC becomes more unwilling to pony up big bucks for a product not justified by the number of eyeballs watching. If, on the other hand, they can continue to make a lot more money as an Independent, that that's what they will remain.

I would guess the people predicting (or guaranteeing) that ND will join the ACC are outlooking a significant fall in the value of the NBC contract to ND. Or they are envisioning a situation where ND can be an ACC member and still enjoy the fruits of their popularity as a TV property.

I'm predicting they end up as a full ACC member in less than 10 years for a few reasons that you mention. I don't see NBC's contract continuing along it's lucrative path with ND. Their product has diminshed in stature over the years, and granted they have a cult like following, anyone who follows college athletics can see it isn't what it once was. They're still very much a brand name, but moreso in the flagship member of a conference sense than operating at a level above the remainder of D1 college football teams like they have in the past. At one point in time I would have likened them to the New York Yankees or Manchester United of college football - that isn't the case anymore.

The biggest driver I feel is their current athletic department and administration. They keep stating independence, but I almost take it as an appeasement to the old guard. If you look at the path this athletic department and adminstration has taken them on over the past 15-20 years, it's gone from full independence, to affiliation with a 3 game handshake agreement, and now to stronger affiliation with an ironclad 5 game contractual agreement, with their administration publically stating that the status of some of their current "rivalries" will need to be re-assessed. That, to me, is a huge indicator that independence and rivalry are no longer going to trump over everything else.

Either I'm way off, or ND is undergoing a slow, smooth transition from full independence to full conference member.

 

[Townie72]

I'm predicting they end up as a full ACC member in less than 10 years for a few reasons that you mention. I don't see NBC's contract continuing along it's lucrative path with ND. Their product has diminshed in stature over the years, and granted they have a cult like following, anyone who follows college athletics can see it isn't what it once was. They're still very much a brand name, but moreso in the flagship member of a conference sense than operating at a level above the remainder of D1 college football teams like they have in the past. At one point in time I would have likened them to the New York Yankees or Manchester United of college football - that isn't the case anymore.

The biggest driver I feel is their current athletic department and administration. They keep stating independence, but I almost take it as an appeasement to the old guard. If you look at the path this athletic department and adminstration has taken them on over the past 15-20 years, it's gone from full independence, to affiliation with a 3 game handshake agreement, and now to stronger affiliation with an ironclad 5 game contractual agreement, with their administration publically stating that the status of some of their current "rivalries" will need to be re-assessed. That, to me, is a huge indicator that independence and rivalry are no longer going to trump over everything else.

Either I'm way off, or ND is undergoing a slow, smooth transition from full independence to full conference member.

I have spent a fair amount of time in corporate strategic planning. We tried to guess what the market, product and scemario was going to look like five years out. We had lots of resources, did studies of need, had experts on technology and tracked our competition's every move and investment. And we were always wildly off.

You may be right ... but 10 years is a long time for a projection.

Actually, I agree with you, that if the current trends continue they'll be in a Conference and is the structure is like it is today it will be the ACC. But things can change radically and rapidly.

High and low probabilities could include:

A huge change in the structure of college football with the top 48 teams bolting from the NCAA and establishing a new league under new rules. I don't think that's at all improbable.

A national movement --- led by the usual suspects --- to ban football because of head injuries or the cost of healthcare associated with head injuries.

A huge swing back to ethnic pride in the US in which Catholics fight back and identify more strongly with institutions like Notre Dame.

If you had told me years ago that smoking would be border-line illegal, gas would be $4 a gallon, that a significant percentage of young women would have tatoos and that the Sunday NY Times Society pages would have wedding pictures of Bart and Bret together smiling like jackasses eating sticker bushes, I wouldn't have believed any of it.

 

[Noexcuse]

I have spent a fair amount of time in corporate strategic planning. We tried to guess what the market, product and scemario was going to look like five years out. We had lots of resources, did studies of need, had experts on technology and tracked our competition's every move and investment. And we were always wildly off.

You may be right ... but 10 years is a long time for a projection.

Actually, I agree with you, that if the current trends continue they'll be in a Conference and is the structure is like it is today it will be the ACC. But things can change radically and rapidly.

High and low probabilities could include:

A huge change in the structure of college football with the top 48 teams bolting from the NCAA and establishing a new league under new rules. I don't think that's at all improbable.

A national movement --- led by the usual suspects --- to ban football because of head injuries or the cost of healthcare associated with head injuries.

A huge swing back to ethnic pride in the US in which Catholics fight back and identify more strongly with institutions like Notre Dame.

I you had told me years ago that smoking would be border-line illegal, gas would be $4 a gallon, that a significant percentage of young women would have tatoos and that the Sunday NY Times Society pages would have wedding pictures of Bart and Bret together smiling like jackasses eating sticker bushes, I wouldn't have believed any of it.

All predicted on the pay side . . . in 1998

 

[tep624]

I have spent a fair amount of time in corporate strategic planning. We tried to guess what the market, product and scemario was going to look like five years out. We had lots of resources, did studies of need, had experts on technology and tracked our competition's every move and investment. And we were always wildly off.

You may be right ... but 10 years is a long time for a projection.

Actually, I agree with you, that if the current trends continue they'll be in a Conference and is the structure is like it is today it will be the ACC. But things can change radically and rapidly.

High and low probabilities could include:

A huge change in the structure of college football with the top 48 teams bolting from the NCAA and establishing a new league under new rules. I don't think that's at all improbable.

A national movement --- led by the usual suspects --- to ban football because of head injuries or the cost of healthcare associated with head injuries.

A huge swing back to ethnic pride in the US in which Catholics fight back and identify more strongly with institutions like Notre Dame.

If you had told me years ago that smoking would be border-line illegal, gas would be $4 a gallon, that a significant percentage of young women would have tatoos and that the Sunday NY Times Society pages would have wedding pictures of Bart and Bret together smiling like jackasses eating sticker bushes, I wouldn't have believed any of it.

I've seen the conferences leaving the NCAA scenario thrown around before. What do teams and/or conferences have to lose if they were to leave the NCAA?

 

[JPS]

The football playoff will be a factor as to whether ND needs a conference home as much as the new tv contract they will have to negotiate. The exposure they seek for the ND fan base is/was a huge factor in all of this. Playing games in NY- NJ market, MD-DC, And Boston are important to them. Add in games in southern cities like Atlanta and the like, and now you are adding to the ND alumni and fan base areas. Playing against the ACC's finest is all good to them. Plus they still have room for their traditional rivalry games. They may have to juggle some and make certain concessions, but they can keep the games. It's a huge bonus all the way around. They weren't to keen on some of the new members of the big east and adding those games would have been less than marginal tv wise. It was equally risky with b1g. They felt the ACC school locations and tv markets were far better in the long run for all of their sports.

 

[JPS]

Who will make the next move? I like the dark horse Kentucky to the ACC some day! Haaaaaa, wouldnt that be something? Guess it all rests on the other conferences now. Sure as hell am glad we are of the big east. What a mess...

 

[HtownOrange]

Townie did a great job explaining the differences so I add only that ND did attempt to schedule other teams but was turned down by both UConn and Rutgers. Both were under pressure to host ND but neither really negotiated because ND wanted the games in South Bend and pro stadiums (Gillette and Meadowlands). Though it is possibly true that Cincy, Louisville and WVU were not high on ND's wish list, ND did play Pitt, Syracuse and USF, so they tried to play five of the eight. Now, ND will play ALL ACC teams in rotation, at least once in three years.

There, done defending ND. Excuse me while I go shower, the feeling you get while defending ND is too gross to discuss.

 

[longtimefan]

A huge swing back to ethnic pride in the US in which Catholics fight back and identify more strongly with institutions like Notre Dame.

Most of your conjectures have some logical basis. But, pray tell--what do Catholics have to fight back against?

 

[longtimefan]

I think it is also significant that Notre Dame will not have ANY basketball-only allies in the ACC with which to unduly influence -- and even control -- conference decision-making.

Speaking of which--one factor that hasn't been mentioned in all this is: how are the BB-onlys reacting to the ND move? In addition to the religious angle, ND had been very helpful to the BB schools, either voting with them, or abstaining to the advantage of their non-football-playing brethren. There must be some feeling of betrayal.

 

[Townie72]

Most of your conjectures have some logical basis. But, pray tell--what do Catholics have to fight back against?

"Fight back" might not have been the best way to say that. Although many seem to feel free to tee off on the Catholic Church's beliefs, policies and problems in a way that they wouldn't dare with other "protected" religions and classes. (i.e, all male clergy, contraception, abortion, and the priest scandals). As Catholics, this treatment in the national dialogue does piss us off ... but not so much that its become a big deal ... yet.

A better way to say it might be, An Upswing in Ethnic Identification and Pride among Catholics including Irish, Italians and Catholic Germans. I have no idea why and how this might happen, but stranger things seem to happen every day.

 

[Townie72]

Speaking of which--one factor that hasn't been mentioned in all this is: how are the BB-onlys reacting to the ND move? In addition to the religious angle, ND had been very helpful to the BB schools, either voting with them, or abstaining to the advantage of their non-football-playing brethren. There must be some feeling of betrayal.

No more "sense of betrayal" than usual. Everytime a school leaves a conference, some in the remaining group call them "traitors" or frequently "traders".

The Catholic school forums I read are like travelers on a train who have slept through their stop. Now they find themselves in an unfamilar place and can't exactly understand where they are, how they got there or what happens next. SMU and Houston and Boise State and Central Florida are as distant from Providence and Villanova and St Johns as you can get in so many ways.

They appear to be peering into the abyss of an All Catholic, All non-football Conference and wondering if that isn't the future. Notre Dame's departure is just one more brick on the load.

By the way, during our tenure in the Big East, there was no school that voted as consistently with the Basketball-onlys as did SU. This reflected the huge role that basketball plays at SU.