I actually think this was a fair analysis of SU tourney prospects with/without Melo. Obviously, the ideal spot for Rak is at the 4. He can cover the wing, block shots off the ball and get rebound-putbacks and a bucket or 2 on offense. JB's also had him play the 5 to give us an extra man there. This has worked for short stretches in a pinch, or against mid-majors. But in his first game starting at center against a conference opponent on the road with a big guy in the middle, he wasn't ready. (no one else was either)
In the Cincy game, Rak took a step forward. He was more active against one of the conferences most experienced big men. 4 points, nine rebounds and 3 blocks is not too shabby for a freshman learning the 5. I also loved his 2 assits, including a sweet pass to Triche down low.
On the minus side, Gates still went off for 16/10. Rak wasn't able to draw fouls or provide much inside offense. I'd say he barely held his own in the middle.
Going forward, I don't think 4-6 points is unreasonable at either inside spot. He doesn't have reliable low-post moves. But he can get putbacks, he can roll to the basket, and he can get you a bucket or 2 with that bank shot. Right now his best potential contribution is at the 4 along side a 7 footer.
Melo just adds a different dimension that makes us a dangerous final four threat. He's three inches taller, and is a better shot-blocker and better anchor/intimidator in the middle of the zone. He can score off the pick and roll. He's gotten good at catching the 'oops they throw him. There's a baby-hook, an up and under move and a foul line jumper. Perhaps the best contribution he makes over Rak is that he can draw fouls against guys driving the lane.
This is why everyone's hoping for Melo to return. With those two playing together and improving, we could have a front line big enough to compete with elite teams. In the meantime, the confidence that Rak is building is important. But if he's starting at the 5 in March, I don't see us going past the elite 8.