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Message: [QUOTE="Orangepace, post: 1443869, member: 322"] I've seen the issue peppered about in many threads over the past week or two and wanted to try to address the issue head on. First, let me gather tidbits I've read here into two categories: [B][U]FACTS:[/U][/B] [LIST] [*]On January 9, 2013, Shafer signed a contract to became the Syracuse University football team head coach. [*]Terms of the deal were never reported as per normal Syracuse University policy. While the salary info has emerged due to financial reporting requirements, the length of the deal is still a mystery. [*]Shafer was hired by TGD. [*]In Year 1 as the maestro, Shafer coached Syracuse to a 7-6 record and a win in the Texas Bowl. [*]In Year 2, Shafer coached Syracuse to a 3-9 record. [*]TGD has "resigned" his position as Athletic Director at Syracuse. [*]Mark Coyle was name Athletic Director of Syracuse University. [/LIST] [B][U]CONJECTURE:[/U][/B] [LIST] [*]Shafer's salary is at or near the bottom of Power 5 head football coaches. [*]Shafer's staff is likely also wildly underpaid relative to Power 5 peers. [*]Shafer performed admirably in guiding Syracuse to a 7-6 season and a win in the Texas Bowl, performing slightly above expectations. [*]Shafer guided Syracuse through a tumultuous 3-9 season, plagued by injuries and the negative press driven by the demotion of McF*ckit. [*]Overcoming the 3-9 season, Shafer has overseen 3 recruiting classes (one ongoing). [*]Shafer has arguably improved upon both predecessors with each and every class and currently has (again arguably) one of the top 5 classes committed in Syracuse University history (or at least the Syracuse history since the emergence of recruiting services). [*]This may, or may not, be a make-or-break year for Shafer and his crew depending on the outcome of the season. [*]Coyle may want to bring his own guy (a new "splash" hire) in order to be in control of his own legacy. [*]TGD spent freely, leaving the department in complete disarray by ballooning the budget through is hires. [*]The coffers at Syracuse are thin, so it's unlikely that Coyle's potential "splash" hire will be a seasoned head coach. [*]In order to preserve the momentum realized on the recruiting trail and potentially quell any negative recruiting, Coyle should extend Shafer now. [/LIST] Ok, now for my own opinions on the matter. Over the last decade, there has not been a single BCS/Power-5 head coach that has signed a contract to take the reigns as head coach at a new destination, nor through a promotion to head coach at the same institution, that has been for a term of less than 4 years. The current trend is actually for a 5-year contract. So at minimum, it's likely that Shafer has at least 2 full seasons left on his current contract. So if SU were to fire Shafer after this coming season, he would likely be due a buyout, whether significant or not. Coyle, who by all accounts and resume, appears to be a very qualified and intelligent Athletic Director. His mission is to get the department budget back into check, while also ensuring the athletics programs continue to improve. Firing Shafer after year 3 of his tenure serves no tangible or intangible benefit to Coyle at all. First, if the coffers really are bare and the department really was out of control in terms of spending, it would stand to reason that Coyle would want to get his house in order and demonstrate for the new Chancellor that he's financially and fiscally savvy. That will take at least a year to build the trust. Thus, it would make absolutely zero sense to fire one of the lowest paid P5 coaches and pay a buyout, regardless of the significance of the amount, as it would be irrational. By demonstrating he's financially savvy, Coyle will potentially buy himself the ability to reallocate some of those poorly spent funds to the next hire. Further, Shafer was a TGD hire, so his legacy in failure will be tied to TGD. However, his legacy in success, depending on the length and magnitude of that success, could very easily by tied (in public opinion) to Coyle. Coyle also is not completely unplugged from the world. He knows what's happening on the recruiting trail and the momentum that the football program is building. Keeping Shafer around for another year is a small opportunity cost if he's able to keep the recruiting class together. So Coyle has nothing to gain from such a move, nor anything to lose. The realism behind this all is that in order to preserve the momentum and continue to increase the excitement around the program, Shafer has to execute and win games this year. There is no threshold of 5, 6, 7 or more games. Shafer has to keep the momentum going forward, no matter how many games he wins. If Syracuse goes 2-10, the momentum surrounding the talent committed, but not signed, will wane and he'll have to show even bigger chops to keep the class together. Shafer has a 2 year interview process in which he has to continue to demonstrate he's got this ship headed in the right direction. That's more than fair and adequate at this point. [/QUOTE]

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