Similar PGs to Kaleb / Fresh-to-Soph development

[Henny & Coke]

My theory: PG's tend to improve greatly between their Freshmen & Sophomore years in CBB (if given enough MPG).

Let's test it out. I scoured the college ranks from past few years to find similar PGs to our own Kaleb Joseph, who has the following profile:

Kaleb Joseph - PG, 6-3, 165 lbs. ESPN 9th best PG recruit 2014, 4 star, score of 86.
2014-15 stats: 6.7 ppg, 30.0 mpg, 385% FG, 217% 3PT, 4.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 2.4 rpg, 2.7 tpg, 1.79 t/a

So, to start, I pulled a sample of PGs from past few years that I thought were "similar enough" to KJ:

"Similar Enough" - Rysheed Jordan (St Johns), Demetrius Jackson (Notre Dame), Anthony Barber (NC State), Monte Morris (Iowa St), Tracy Abrams (Illinois), Kevin Pangos (Gongaza), Jaren Sina (Seton Hall), Terry Rozier (Louisville), Codi Miller-McIntyre (Wake Forrest), Charles Mann (Georgia), Quinn Cook (Duke), Chasson Randle (Stanford), Ryan Boatwright (UCONN), and Trey Burke (Michigan).

The 14 PGs above averaged the following increase/decrease in their Soph seasons from their Fresh year:

PPG - up 4.76 ppg, or 58%
MGP - up 6.51 mpg, or 25%
APG - up 1.06 apg, or 36%
RPG - up 1.02, or 40%
TPG - up 0.49, or 27%
Assist to Turnover ratio - down 0.01%, or -1%

Then, to make for a better comparison, I tried to "get closer" to Kaleb's profile, so I paired down the above group, based on the following factors:

1.) Recruit ranking (ie, "talent") - Similar ranking coming out of HS, based on ESPN rankings - usually left out top 2-3 highest ranked PGs, and also didn't consider someone too low either,

2.) Position/body type - Similar position obviously (PG), but also similar body type if possible - meaning, I won't be including guys like Fred Van Vleet (PG, Wichita St), since he's listed at 5-11, 175 & I feel that may lead to diff style of play compared to the 6-3 Joseph,

3.) Usage - MPG & PPG - Similar minutes per game (mpg) as Joseph is playing this year (~30 mpg) but also similar points per game as Joseph is putting up this year (~6.7 ppg).

"Getting closer" - Rysheed Jordan, Demetrius Jackson, Anthony Barber, Monte Morris, Tracy Abrams, Jaren Sina, Codi Miller-McIntyre, and Ryan Boatwright.

These 8 PG's Frosh-to-Soph stats went like this:

PPG - up 3.28 ppg, or 36%
APG - up 0.85 apg, or 26%

And finally, from this group of 8 I tried to select the players that I thought were "most similar" to Kaleb Joseph & his situation (based on the above criteria).

"Most similar" - Monte Morris & Codi Miller-McIntyre.

Monte Morris - PG, 6-2, 170 lbs. ESPN 17th best PG recruit 2013, 4 star, score of 84.
2013-14 (Freshman year): 6.8 ppg, 28.1 mpg, 430% FG, 406% 3PT, 3.7 apg, 1.3 spg, 2.6 rpg, 0.8 tpg, 4.79 a/t
2014-15 (Soph year, so far): 10.8 ppg, 33.3 mpg, 487% FG, 304% 3PT, 5.6 apg, 1.7 spg, 3.7 rpg, 1.1 tpg, 5.35 a/t

Codi Miller -McIntyre - PG, 6-3, 195 lbs, ESPN 15th best PG recruit 2012, 4 star, score of 92.
2012-13 (Freshman year): 8.1 ppg, 28.9 mpg, 414% FG, 323% 3PT, 2.6 apg, 0.6 spg, 2.7 rpg, 1.9 tpg, 1.36 a/t
2013-14 (Soph year): 12.6 ppg, 32.3 mpg, 433% FG, 200% 3PT, 4.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 3.0 rpg, 2.0 tpg, 2.09 a/t

Average improvement of both Morris & Miller-McIntyre from 1st to 2nd seasons:

PPG - up 8.5 ppg, or 57%
MPG - up 8.6 mpg, or 15%
APG - up 3.5 apg, or 56%
SPG - up 0.6 spg, or 32%
RPG - up 1.4 rpg, or 26%
TPG - up 0.4 tpg, or 15%
A/T - up 1.29%, or 21%

If we were to use these percentages to project Kaleb's current production into what he may play like next year (using Morris & Miller-McIntyre as comps), it would look like this:

Kaleb Joseph's projected Soph year: 10.5 ppg, 34.5 mpg, 7.5 apg (may be little unreasonable), 1.5 spg, 3.0 rpg, 3.1 tpg, 2.17 a/t

(Sorry for the long, data-intensive post...tried to make it as reader friendly as possible. Since I enjoy doing this analysis, I do this stuff anyway...just thought I would post it in case other people found it interesting as well!)

 

[BuffOrange]

That actually does make me feel better. Watching the kid play it's hard to believe he was even good in HS but I guess we've been spoiled lately.

 

[sufandu]

That actually does make me feel better. Watching the kid play it's hard to believe he was even good in HS but I guess we've been spoiled lately.

And I think it's easy to underestimate just how big the jump is from high school to college.

 

[jordoo]

Wow awesome amount of work there Henny & Coke! Appreciated.

I agree that Kaleb will show improvements in his numbers next year. That said I think the biggest improvement he will show is going to be confidence. I think he's going to know he understands what's going on and what needs to be done after this season and the off season. To me a majority of his issues are rooted in questioning what the right thing to do is and being overprotective in regards to making mistakes. I feel like he's going to have a much better overall understanding of what he needs to do and how he needs to do it. That will allow him to do more playing and less thinking. I also think it will allow him to put more focus on his defense rather than constantly trying to figure out what to do with the ball.

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

My theory: PG's tend to improve greatly between their Freshmen & Sophomore years in CBB (if given enough MPG).

Let's test it out. I scoured the college ranks from past few years to find similar PGs to our own Kaleb Joseph, who has the following profile:

Kaleb Joseph - PG, 6-3, 165 lbs. ESPN 9th best PG recruit 2014, 4 star, score of 86.
2014-15 stats: 6.7 ppg, 30.0 mpg, 385% FG, 217% 3PT, 4.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 2.4 rpg, 2.7 tpg, 1.79 t/a

So, to start, I pulled a sample of PGs from past few years that I thought were "similar enough" to KJ:

"Similar Enough" - Rysheed Jordan (St Johns), Demetrius Jackson (Notre Dame), Anthony Barber (NC State), Monte Morris (Iowa St), Tracy Abrams (Illinois), Kevin Pangos (Gongaza), Jaren Sina (Seton Hall), Terry Rozier (Louisville), Codi Miller-McIntyre (Wake Forrest), Charles Mann (Georgia), Quinn Cook (Duke), Chasson Randle (Stanford), Ryan Boatwright (UCONN), and Trey Burke (Michigan).

The 14 PGs above averaged the following increase/decrease in their Soph seasons from their Fresh year:

PPG - up 4.76 ppg, or 58%
MGP - up 6.51 mpg, or 25%
APG - up 1.06 apg, or 36%
RPG - up 1.02, or 40%
TPG - up 0.49, or 27%
Assist to Turnover ratio - down 0.01%, or -1%

Then, to make for a better comparison, I tried to "get closer" to Kaleb's profile, so I paired down the above group, based on the following factors:

1.) Recruit ranking (ie, "talent") - Similar ranking coming out of HS, based on ESPN rankings - usually left out top 2-3 highest ranked PGs, and also didn't consider someone too low either,

2.) Position/body type - Similar position obviously (PG), but also similar body type if possible - meaning, I won't be including guys like Fred Van Vleet (PG, Wichita St), since he's listed at 5-11, 175 & I feel that may lead to diff style of play compared to the 6-3 Joseph,

3.) Usage - MPG & PPG - Similar minutes per game (mpg) as Joseph is playing this year (~30 mpg) but also similar points per game as Joseph is putting up this year (~6.7 ppg).

"Getting closer" - Rysheed Jordan, Demetrius Jackson, Anthony Barber, Monte Morris, Tracy Abrams, Jaren Sina, Codi Miller-McIntyre, and Ryan Boatwright.

These 8 PG's Frosh-to-Soph stats went like this:

PPG - up 3.28 ppg, or 36%
APG - up 0.85 apg, or 26%

And finally, from this group of 8 I tried to select the players that I thought were "most similar" to Kaleb Joseph & his situation (based on the above criteria).

"Most similar" - Monte Morris & Codi Miller-McIntyre.

Monte Morris - PG, 6-2, 170 lbs. ESPN 17th best PG recruit 2013, 4 star, score of 84.
2013-14 (Freshman year): 6.8 ppg, 28.1 mpg, 430% FG, 406% 3PT, 3.7 apg, 1.3 spg, 2.6 rpg, 0.8 tpg, 4.79 a/t
2014-15 (Soph year, so far): 10.8 ppg, 33.3 mpg, 487% FG, 304% 3PT, 5.6 apg, 1.7 spg, 3.7 rpg, 1.1 tpg, 5.35 a/t

Codi Miller -McIntyre - PG, 6-3, 195 lbs, ESPN 15th best PG recruit 2012, 4 star, score of 92.
2012-13 (Freshman year): 8.1 ppg, 28.9 mpg, 414% FG, 323% 3PT, 2.6 apg, 0.6 spg, 2.7 rpg, 1.9 tpg, 1.36 a/t
2013-14 (Soph year): 12.6 ppg, 32.3 mpg, 433% FG, 200% 3PT, 4.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 3.0 rpg, 2.0 tpg, 2.09 a/t

Average improvement of both Morris & Miller-McIntyre from 1st to 2nd seasons:

PPG - up 8.5 ppg, or 57%
MPG - up 8.6 mpg, or 15%
APG - up 3.5 apg, or 56%
SPG - up 0.6 spg, or 32%
RPG - up 1.4 rpg, or 26%
TPG - up 0.4 tpg, or 15%
A/T - up 1.29%, or 21%

If we were to use these percentages to project Kaleb's current production into what he may play like next year (using Morris & Miller-McIntyre as comps), it would look like this:

Kaleb Joseph's projected Soph year: 10.5 ppg, 34.5 mpg, 7.5 apg (may be little unreasonable), 1.5 spg, 3.0 rpg, 3.1 tpg, 2.17 a/t

(Sorry for the long, data-intensive post...tried to make it as reader friendly as possible. Since I enjoy doing this analysis, I do this stuff anyway...just thought I would post it in case other people found it interesting as well!)

Great analysis, thank you. I see no reason why not to expect this from KJ. He will be fine, it is just a little unnerving watching him learn before our eyes at times, but he will be fine. Both of those comps have made their teams better in the process too, not that they are surrounded by a bunch of 1st round draft picks that inflate their contribution, rather they have made themselves better and that has translated to team success. Go Kaleb!

 

[Cheriehoop]

My theory: PG's tend to improve greatly between their Freshmen & Sophomore years in CBB (if given enough MPG).



Kaleb Joseph's projected Soph year: 10.5 ppg, 34.5 mpg, 7.5 apg (may be little unreasonable), 1.5 spg, 3.0 rpg, 3.1 tpg, 2.17 a/t

(Sorry for the long, data-intensive post...tried to make it as reader friendly as possible. Since I enjoy doing this analysis, I do this stuff anyway...just thought I would post it in case other people found it interesting as well!)

Nice. Statistical analysis of Al McGuire and JB's contention that the best thing about freshman is they become sophomores (well they all used to ).

 

[RF2044]

Wow--great post!!!

Obviously, there is no way to accurately predict the future, but that is an interesting set of data to consider.

 

[cuseguy]

Joseph is certainly capable of making a big jump if Christmas can do the same.

I figured Christmas would never amount to anything after his sophomore year, even after last year.

Joseph was lights out the one time I saw him in person last year. He had 29 points and scored in a variety of ways. My friend, who reffed the game, called him "a baller," and UConn coach Kevin Ollie, in attendance, had nothing but praise for Joseph.

I think Joseph is still adjusting to the speed of the game and playing against bigger, elite athletes.

It's frustrating to watch him, but we've seen flashes.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I want to know why Joseph has been given the red light on shooting threes. That's a shot he can hit. At the very least, I think he'd get in a better scoring flow if he was able to take some shots in rhythm with his feet set, instead of pull up jumpers beyond the foul line (difficult shot) and driving to the rim (where he's not good finishing yet).

 

[Shark58]

good stuff.

another filter factor could be the status of other PGs on the roster. not sure about the players/teams you considered (i'm not going to go research it) and if anyone was cutting into their time. assuming Kaleb makes the maturity/confidence jump next year as others above have discussed AND his D and mid-range jump are playing out as they should, KJ will see tons of burn. with g as the starting 3, Howard not being a true PG and probably getting limited run, and no real PGs on the recruiting horizon Buss is the only threat for PT. Again, if KJ add a shot to his game, and more importantly plays D like a talented 6'3" top of the zone guys should, then Buss's's's's burn rate drops dramatically.

 

[Libero2]

I would also like to add most (if not all) of the guys you mentioned had their minutes increase in year 2, I don't know if that will happen with Kaleb next year given that he's getting 30 mpg now. Bus will still be here along with Howard and Richardson, that's a lot of guards to play and we can see Cooney won't be seeing to much in terms of minutes cut from his cloth especially as a senior.

I'd be surprised if Joseph gets 30 mpg next year if everyone is healthy, let alone 35 (like your projected line suggests). I think next year in a back court by committee where the hot hand plays lead minutes, Joseph will play better but in essentially the same minutes per game he is in (which means boosted production).