So I did some crappy statistical analysis

[OttoinGrotto]

Hi sports fans,

Take this for whatever it's worth, which probably isn't much. I decided to put some quick and dirty analysis together looking at time of possession, offensive points scored, and game results while Shafer has been our head coach. I've included my crappy math below.

I did this because I believe a few things:

1. We won't be any better than a whiteknuckle bowl team until we average at least 30 points a game (for context, last season 30 points would have tied for 58th in the country). If we assume that teams evenly share time of possession over a 60 minute game, this means the scoring standard should be 1 point per minute of possession
2. Our staff has a tendency to make decisions in the interests of trying to keep scores close and low, and I suspect that means our ceiling for wins each season is lower than a team that plays more to favor their offense than we do
3. As mentioned in another post, I think the stars have aligned for circumstances to encourage the staff to set a low bar for the offense. Rock fights FTW (we pray)
4. Not to knock our fans, but after 15 years we've gotten used to a lot of bad offense and it has severely warped our sense of what kind of offense we need in order to be successful
5. Removing defensive and special teams scoring from the equation gives a better sense of how efficient the offense actually is

Here's the analysis:

A few comments:

- Small sample sizes, yadda yadda yadda
- This includes some historically bad offense. I get that. It's also kind of illustrative to include that though.
- Including the start of this season, we have surpassed an average of 1 point per minute of possession a total of four times. That seems amazingly low to me. Not surprisingly we won three of the four games. If we look for .9 or higher, that goes up to seven games, and we won six of them. I think this could mean that our defense is good enough that we might not need to average 30 a game to break through, but if we can top 30 a game we probably profile to perform pretty well
- The average points per minute in games we have won is .94, and the average points per in minute in all games is .66
- In terms of offensive scoring, Rhode Island was closer to our average game (.78 vs .66) than our average winning game (.78 vs .94). As this was likely our best chance all season to score, this does have me concerned a bit about how well we may do throughout the rest of the season
- I didn't fully analyze this, but our ppm definitely drops in conference play vs non-conference

I have some other thoughts, but figured I'd throw this out there now for some feedback from our esteemed community.

Flame on!

 

[Shenexon]

Any chance you have a larger version of your analysis?

 

[CuseOnly]

Hi sports fans,

Take this for whatever it's worth, which probably isn't much. I decided to put some quick and dirty analysis together looking at time of possession, offensive points scored, and game results while Shafer has been our head coach. I've included my crappy math below.

I did this because I believe a few things:

1. We won't be any better than a whiteknuckle bowl team until we average at least 30 points a game (for context, last season 30 points would have tied for 58th in the country). If we assume that teams evenly share time of possession over a 60 minute game, this means the scoring standard should be 1 point per minute of possession
2. Our staff has a tendency to make decisions in the interests of trying to keep scores close and low, and I suspect that means our ceiling for wins each season is lower than a team that plays more to favor their offense than we do
3. As mentioned in another post, I think the stars have aligned for circumstances to encourage the staff to set a low bar for the offense. Rock fights FTW (we pray)
4. Not to knock our fans, but after 15 years we've gotten used to a lot of bad offense and it has severely warped our sense of what kind of offense we need in order to be successful
5. Removing defensive and special teams scoring from the equation gives a better sense of how efficient the offense actually is

Here's the analysis:
View attachment 50574

A few comments:

- Small sample sizes, yadda yadda yadda
- This includes some historically bad offense. I get that. It's also kind of illustrative to include that though.
- Including the start of this season, we have surpassed an average of 1 point per minute of possession a total of four times. That seems amazingly low to me. Not surprisingly we won three of the four games. If we look for .9 or higher, that goes up to seven games, and we won six of them. I think this could mean that our defense is good enough that we might not need to average 30 a game to break through, but if we can top 30 a game we probably profile to perform pretty well
- The average points per minute in games we have won is .94, and the average points per in minute in all games is .66
- In terms of offensive scoring, Rhode Island was closer to our average game (.78 vs .66) than our average winning game (.78 vs .94). As this was likely our best chance all season to score, this does have me concerned a bit about how well we may do throughout the rest of the season
- I didn't fully analyze this, but our ppm definitely drops in conference play vs non-conference

I have some other thoughts, but figured I'd throw this out there now for some feedback from our esteemed community.

Flame on!

When you are looking at other teams average PPM of 1 and total points per game as a comparison are you also removing their defensive and special team scores to arrive at that number?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

When you are looking at other teams average PPM of 1 and total points per game as a comparison are you also removing their defensive and special team scores to arrive at that number?

I believe what I looked at for that did that, yeah. Could be wrong though. Don't think it would swing it all that much though.

 

[longtimefan]

Hi sports fans,

Take this for whatever it's worth, which probably isn't much. I decided to put some quick and dirty analysis together looking at time of possession, offensive points scored, and game results while Shafer has been our head coach. I've included my crappy math below.

I did this because I believe a few things:

1. We won't be any better than a whiteknuckle bowl team until we average at least 30 points a game (for context, last season 30 points would have tied for 58th in the country). If we assume that teams evenly share time of possession over a 60 minute game, this means the scoring standard should be 1 point per minute of possession
2. Our staff has a tendency to make decisions in the interests of trying to keep scores close and low, and I suspect that means our ceiling for wins each season is lower than a team that plays more to favor their offense than we do
3. As mentioned in another post, I think the stars have aligned for circumstances to encourage the staff to set a low bar for the offense. Rock fights FTW (we pray)
4. Not to knock our fans, but after 15 years we've gotten used to a lot of bad offense and it has severely warped our sense of what kind of offense we need in order to be successful
5. Removing defensive and special teams scoring from the equation gives a better sense of how efficient the offense actually is

Here's the analysis:
View attachment 50574

A few comments:

- Small sample sizes, yadda yadda yadda
- This includes some historically bad offense. I get that. It's also kind of illustrative to include that though.
- Including the start of this season, we have surpassed an average of 1 point per minute of possession a total of four times. That seems amazingly low to me. Not surprisingly we won three of the four games. If we look for .9 or higher, that goes up to seven games, and we won six of them. I think this could mean that our defense is good enough that we might not need to average 30 a game to break through, but if we can top 30 a game we probably profile to perform pretty well
- The average points per minute in games we have won is .94, and the average points per in minute in all games is .66
- In terms of offensive scoring, Rhode Island was closer to our average game (.78 vs .66) than our average winning game (.78 vs .94). As this was likely our best chance all season to score, this does have me concerned a bit about how well we may do throughout the rest of the season
- I didn't fully analyze this, but our ppm definitely drops in conference play vs non-conference

I have some other thoughts, but figured I'd throw this out there now for some feedback from our esteemed community.

Flame on!

I would not use the URI game as a data point. If you get an int TD, as special teams TD and a safety in any game, you aren't going to need to score a whole lot of offensive points. And, you'll likely sit on the ball in the second half, as we did.

Add to that the emergency use of a true freshman QB, and a desire to not show any more than you have to against such a weak opponent in a season-opening game, and the need to open up the offense goes down even further.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I would not use the URI game as a data point. If you get an int TD, as special teams TD and a safety in any game, you aren't going to need to score a whole lot of offensive points. And, you'll likely sit on the ball in the second half, as we did.

Add to that the emergency use of a true freshman QB, and a desire to not show any more than you have to against such a weak opponent in a season-opening game, and the need to open up the offense goes down even further.

I'm including it because it's the only data point we have. Plus, I was told not to judge Lester's offense until we saw it. So now conditions are such that we shouldn't judge it? Come on, we gotta have some basis for discussion.

 

[TheCusian]

I'm including it because it's the only data point we have. Plus, I was told not to judge Lester's offense until we saw it. So now conditions are such that we shouldn't judge it? Come on, we gotta have some basis for discussion.

His points and your point still stand. I think we can begin to process the O with this system now - but can't draw any real meaningful info until we get a bunch more games and data in. But you did a great job in explaining all that and didn't draw a ton of conclusions.

 

[Crusty]

As you know, we have been harping on the 30+ mantra for a few years now. It is simply fact that we need to cross that threshold to be relevant again.
That said, I think you can throw out HCSS history the last 2 years. He tried a spread offense and then corrected an experiment gone wrong.
I think he gets it he just hasn't had the OC or players.
I truly believe that is changing quickly. Am I talking position? Absolutely. However, everywhere I look I see signs of pretty good progress that will show up in points later this year.

 

[Delmar]

Crappy statistical analysis is the best kind.

 

[Shark58]

some stability at QB wouldnt hurt either

 

[qdawgg]

Lots of teams have scored 30+ and/or have had better offenses than us within the last 2 years, with less talent. Ours has always been an issue of coaching.

 

[BlackKnight76]

Interesting stuff. May want to add in points per play rather than just minute, although I realize that's less easy to digest