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Message: [QUOTE="OttoinGrotto, post: 1468886, member: 297"] Hi sports fans, Take this for whatever it's worth, which probably isn't much. I decided to put some quick and dirty analysis together looking at time of possession, offensive points scored, and game results while Shafer has been our head coach. I've included my crappy math below. I did this because I believe a few things: 1. We won't be any better than a whiteknuckle bowl team until we average at least 30 points a game (for context, last season 30 points would have tied for 58th in the country). If we assume that teams evenly share time of possession over a 60 minute game, this means the scoring standard should be 1 point per minute of possession 2. Our staff has a tendency to make decisions in the interests of trying to keep scores close and low, and I suspect that means our ceiling for wins each season is lower than a team that plays more to favor their offense than we do 3. As mentioned in another post, I think the stars have aligned for circumstances to encourage the staff to set a low bar for the offense. Rock fights FTW (we pray) 4. Not to knock our fans, but after 15 years we've gotten used to a lot of bad offense and it has severely warped our sense of what kind of offense we need in order to be successful 5. Removing defensive and special teams scoring from the equation gives a better sense of how efficient the offense actually is Here's the analysis: [ATTACH=full]50574[/ATTACH] A few comments: - Small sample sizes, yadda yadda yadda - This includes some historically bad offense. I get that. It's also kind of illustrative to include that though. - Including the start of this season, we have surpassed an average of 1 point per minute of possession a total of four times. That seems amazingly low to me. Not surprisingly we won three of the four games. If we look for .9 or higher, that goes up to seven games, and we won six of them. I think this [I]could[/I] mean that our defense is good enough that we [I]might [/I]not need to average 30 a game to break through, but if we can top 30 a game we probably profile to perform pretty well - The average points per minute in games we have won is .94, and the average points per in minute in all games is .66 - In terms of offensive scoring, Rhode Island was closer to our average game (.78 vs .66) than our average winning game (.78 vs .94). As this was likely our best chance all season to score, this does have me concerned a bit about how well we may do throughout the rest of the season - I didn't fully analyze this, but our ppm definitely drops in conference play vs non-conference I have some other thoughts, but figured I'd throw this out there now for some feedback from our esteemed community. Flame on! [/QUOTE]

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