So who are the bubble busters?

[jncuse]

As we enter conference tourney season, are any teams outside of the top 11 conferences bubble busters?

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confrpi.html

Keep in mind this is the current bubble (according to Lunardi)... using that merely because it just popped up on the screen.

Last In - Temple, Boise St, Tennessee, Virginia
Last Out - Ole Miss, Alabama, Southern Miss, Baylor

Belmont - 23-6, 1-2 vs top 25 (Beat Middle Tennessee at home) , 6-3 vs top 100, 22 RPI. 3 sub 100 losses (all on road). I think they are in.

Closest Threats in conference tourney (according to KP rankings) - Eastern Kentucky +7.5, Murray St +11.

 

[Marsh01]

Akron

 

[TDTOrange]

Akron

Not anymore

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/co...20130307/akron-alex-abreu-suspended-drugs.ap/

 

[Marsh01]

Not anymore

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/co...20130307/akron-alex-abreu-suspended-drugs.ap/

ouch

 

[jncuse]

Middle Tennessee St? - 27-4, RPI 21, 2-3 vs top 100, 0-3 vs top 50, 1 bad loss. To be fair 3 top 100 losses were all on the road. But teams the losses to are interesting (Akron, Belmont, Florida). If committee values power rankings they are at a solid #27 in KenPom.

Closest conference threats according to KenPom - Arkansas St +10.0, Western Kentucky +14.0.

They seem like strong favourites to win tourney. A bad loss if they do not. Personally, I dont like Mid Tenn St at large chances. I peronally think they would deserve one.

 

[Marsh01]

Middle Tennessee St? - 27-4, RPI 21, 2-3 vs top 100, 0-3 vs top 50, 1 bad loss. To be fair 3 top 100 losses were all on the road. But teams the losses to are interesting (Akron, Belmont, Florida). If committee values power rankings they are at a solid #27 in KenPom.

Closest conference threats according to KenPom - Arkansas St +10.0, Western Kentucky +14.0.

They seem like strong favourites to win tourney. A bad loss if they do not. Personally, I dont like Mid Tenn St at large chances. I peronally think they would deserve one.

They are currently 11 on the matrix so they are in as of right now with some wiggle room

 

[jncuse]

Louisiana Tec - 26-4, 16-1 WAC, RPI 43, 1-0 top 50, 4-4 vs top 100. No bad losses. Top 50 win over fellow bubble team Southern Miss, (Note I am assuming a loss tonite), Only 64 in KenPom.

Closest conference threats according to KenPom - Denver -3.0, New Mexico St +3.0

They will be tested in WAC tournament. If they lose to Denver or New Mexico St they would have no sub 100 losses, Could see it either way.

 

[jncuse]

They are currently 11 on the matrix so they are in as of right now with some wiggle room

11 is not much room if they incur a bad loss in tourney, I suspect they win Sun Belt and its a total non issue.

 

[jncuse]

Akron - 23-5, 47 RPI, 1-2 v top 50, 4-3 vs top 100, 2 terrible losses (sub 200), Quality win at home vs Middle Tennessee,

Another borderline team from an at large perspective.

Chances of losing in conference tourney are significant due to suspension of Abreu noted above.

As the committee hates assessing such teams, they will point to te suspension above, and totally avoid the issue, OUT.

 

[jncuse]

In terms of bubble busters coming from top 11 conferences:

Remote / Almost No Chance
B10
BEast
Pac-12
B12
MWC
ACC - Note - Virginia has some chance at this, and could be viewed as out.

Others

A-10 - Expect one of VCU, St Louis, Butler, Lasalle to take it, but some limited shot for an outsider. Quite common for a bubble buster to come from the A-10 in past. ( 2013 contenders - Temple, UMass, Xavier)

SEC - If Florida loses, its almost certainly a bubble team or buster that wins it.

MVC - Creighton, Wichita St are in, but have both been shaky, Not unusual for a buster to come from this conference.

WCC - Expect it to be Gonzaa or St. Mary's. BYU very minor shot.

CUSA - Memphis is in. Anybody else wins and its a bubble buster.

CUSA, MVC, SEC seem like most potential as bubble buster conferences.

 

[jncuse]

And a few otjer teams I suspect committee would take a quick look at, but would almost surely discard.

Bucknell
Valparaiso
Stunnin Steve Austin

 

[Jasoncuse]

I could see one of the garbage middle teams from the Pac12 taking that conference. Colorado, Arizona St or Stanford all have some talented players that could lead a hot run to the Tourney.

That conference still sucks.

 

[jncuse]

Middle Tennessee St lost and most are predictin tey are now out. As I said, any loss would be a major loss due to opposition - but was stunned to see a loss.

So two questions:
1) Do tey deserve to be in?
2) Will tey be in?

Consider Iona invite last year.

 

[Knicks411]

I can't really justify MTSU making the tourney. They might be worthy, but their best win is Ole Miss