So You Want to be a Top 25 Team?

[SWC75]

We would like, ultimately, to return to the status of a perennial Top 25 team. To do that, you need to have the numbers of a Top 25 team and that means your players have to accumulate those numbers. Last year I calculated the average numbers for the top quarterbacks, running backs and receivers of each team listed in the Top 25, (the writers or coach’s poll- I didn’t use the BCS as it didn’t include the bowls), for the previous season and compared them to the projected numbers of their Syracuse equivalents as the 2011 season went along.

I’m going to do the same thing this year but I’ve tweaked it slightly. Some team alternate running backs or even quarterbacks, (LSU did both last year). Some teams have to replace injured starters at those positions or decide to displace a healthy one. When that happens their top running back or quarterback won’t have the numbers of a guy was the #1 guy all year. When the numbers seemed to indicate that there was a rotation or switch, I added the numbers of the top two runners or quarterbacks together to represent what a clear #1 guy would have had for that team.

Also, I found last year that the numbers of the leading receiver didn’t necessarily indicate the full capabilities of the passing game. The numbers of the second best receiver were important, too. (Alec Lemon and Nick Provo were a classic example). Unlike the running back and quarterback, the two top receivers are out there together. For that reason, I figured out the average numbers of the top two receivers, (defined by yardage, not catches), for the Top 25 teams last year.

Here is what I came up with, (there are 26 teams because USC was not listed in the coach’s poll, creating an extra spot for BYU):

Alabama QB 219/328 2634yds 16TD/5int RB 283c 1679yds 21tds
WR1 56r 627yds 1TD WR2 34r 356yds 4TDs
Louisiana State QB 165/267 2034yds 20TD/5int RB 304c 1463yds 15TDs
WR1 53r 917yds 8TDs WR2 41r 475yds 2TDs
Oklahoma State QB 408/564 4,727yds 37TD 13int RB 208c 1216yds 24TDs
WR1 121r 1522yds 18TDs WR2 71r 715yds 3TDs
Oregon QB 211/339 2761yds 33TDs/7int RB 247c 1805yds 18TDs
WR1 46r 605yds 9TDs WR2 48r 599yds 10TDS
Arkansas QB 277/438 3638yds 24TD/6int RB 210r 1128yds 6TDs
WR1 66r 1117yds 12tds WR2 54r 652yds 3TDs
Southern California QB 308/446 3528yds 39TD/7int RB 267r 1573yds 10TDs
WR1 111r 1292yds 15TDs WR2 73r 1143yds 11TDs
Stanford QB 288/404 3517yds 37TDs/10int RB 242r 1330yds 10TDs
WR1 56r 749yds 4tds WR2 34R 667yds 10TD
Boise State QB 326/439 3800yds 43TD/9int RB 263c 1299yds 16TDs
WR1 62r 994yds 16TDs WR2 62r 679yds 9TDs
South Carolina QB 184/306 2292yds 18TDs/15int RB 270c 1304yds 13TDs
WR1 49r 762yds 8TDs WR2 29r 383yds 2TDs
Michigan QB 142/258 2173yds 20TD/15int RB 237c 1339yds 11TDs
WR1 34r 699yds 4TDs WR2 31r 453yds 3TDs
Michigan State QB 267/419 3316yds 25TDs/10int RB 352r 1613yds 13TDs
WR1 79r 1306yds 12TDs WR2 66r 777yds 4TDs
Wisconsin QB 225/309 3175yds 33TDs/4int RB 307c 1923yds 33TDs
WR1 55r 933yds 8TDs WR2 64r 926yds 10TDs
Baylor QB 291/402 4293yds 37TD/6int RB 250c 1547yds 21TDs
WR1 108r 1663yds 14TDs WR2 59r 957yds 11TDs
Texas Christian QB 228/343 2921yds 25TDs/7int RB 241c 1601yds 12TDs
WR1 61r 998yds 9TDs WR2 45r 500yds 5TDs
Houston QB 428/603 5631yds 48TDs/5int RB 248c 1548yds 20TDs
WR1 89r 1752yds 20TDs WR2 87r 1229yds 12TDs
Oklahoma QB 355/562 4463yds 29TDs/15int RB 224c 1232yds 12TDs
WR1 83r 1157yds 10TDs WR2 61r 849yds 8TDs
Kansas State QB 161/281 1918yds 13TDs/6int RB 317c 1141yds 27TDs
WR1 40r 547yds 5TDs WR2 21r 338yds 1TD
Virginia Tech QB 234/391 3013yds 19TDs/10int RB 290c 1709yds 9TDs
WR1 60r 904yds 3TDs WR2 61r 761yds 5TDs
West Virginia QB 346/526 4385yds 31TD/7int RB 233c 1158yds 18TDs
WR1 72r 1279yds 12TDs WR2 101r 1186yds 8TDs
Southern Mississippi QB 286/475 3496yds 30TDs/11int RB 201r 1195yds 6Tds
WR1 49r 747yds 8TDs WR2 58r 671yds 5TDs
Georgia QB 238/403 3149yds 35TDs/14int RB 258c 1211yds 7TDs
WR1 47R 705yds 8Tds WR2 45r 665yds 4TDs
Cincinnati QB 221/388 2633yds 20TDs/14int RB 237c 1259yds 12TDs
WR1 49r 683yds 6TDs WR2 44r 536yds 2TDs
Clemson QB 298/499 3828yds 33TDs/12int RB 223c 1178yds 11TDs
WR1 82r 1219yds 12TDs WR2 72r 978yds 5TDs
Florida State QB 203/311 2666yds 18TDS 8ints RB 181r 858yds 9TDs
WR1 38r 596yds 7TDs WR2 36r 561yds 4TDs
Nebraska QB 162/288 2089yds 13TDs/8int RB 284r 1357yds 15TDs
WR1 32r 461yds 3TDs WR2 21r 293yds 2TDs
Brigham Young QB 260/454 3169yds 28TDs/15int RB 201c 1039yds 6TDs
WR1 61r 943yds 10TDs WR2 34r 453yds 9TDs

Averages:
QB 259/402 (.644%) 3281yds (12.7 per completion/8.2 per attempt) 28TDs/9int
RB 253c 1373yds (5.4) 14TDs
WR1 64r 968yds (15.1) 9TDs
WR2 52r 685yds (13.2) 6TDs

Syracuse last year:
QB (Ryan Nassib) 259/415 (.624%) 2685yds (10.4 per completion/6.5 per attempt) 22TDs/9int
RB (Antwon Bailey) 240c 1051yds (4.4) 6TDs
WR1 (Alec Lemon) 68R 834yds (12.3) 6TDs
WR2 Nick Provo 51r 537yds (10.5) 7TDs

We weren’t that far from having a Top 25 type offense last year. Ryan Nassib had exactly the average number of completions and his completion percentage wasn’t very far off, (.624 vs. .644). Ant Bailey ran for 1000 yards and Alec Lemon set a school record for receptions with 68- four more than the average #1 receiver for a top 25 team. Nick Provo set a school record for receptions by a tight end with 51- one less than the second best receiver for an average Top 25 team.

But there were holes in that resume. Nassib’s average per completion, (10.4 vs. 12.7) and per attempt, (6.5 vs. 8.2) were well behind that of an average top 25 quarterback. He was throwing shorter than the Top 25 guys, which makes his completion percentage suspect compared to theirs. Of course it could be a lack of “YAC”- yards after catch. Lost of passes these days are thrown short with the expectation that the receiver will break it long. Lemon, (12.3 per catch vs. 15.1 for an average Top 5 #1 receiver) and Provo (10.5 vs. 13.2) didn’t have a lot of YAC.

And gaining 1000 yards isn’t that big a deal for a running back in these days of 12 regular season games and 70 teams going to bowl games- which now count in the season’s numbers. Only one Top 20 team failed to get 1000 yards out of it’s top, (or top 2) tailbacks. Ant Bailey did a pretty good job for us last year in a role he wasn’t fully suited for, (he’s better in space than as a between-the-tackles guy), but his 4.4 average per carry is a full yard below the top 25 average.

Basically we were a competent offensive team- one that could complete passes and get the running back at least to the line of scrimmage. What we lacked was what Top 25 teams have in abundance- the speed to take it all the way. That’s what we need if we are going to become one of them.

 

[kcsu]

great post! Huge difference in yardage per... about 25% This year with Sales back and Ash available i think we may see a much better YAC team. I also think that the running game will be better overall as we have more weapons and fresh legs in the fourth Q can really pay off.

 

[SoBristol]

Nice work!
Relying mainly on observation, I would have a broader explanation for what we lacked. Compared to top 25 teams, we lacked speed at WR (your main point) both for the YAC and a long strike game, but also (a) strength at C and RT; (b) a second RB who could be effective in rotation and as a third down option; and (c) a third WR.
Your stats won't pick up points (b) or (c) because you focused on output from the starters. Top 25 teams tend to have a second QB, a second RB, and a third WR who can supplement the offense. We didn't last season.
Point (a) (soft spots in the OL) shows up in the QB pressures and inability to sustain drives by converting 3rd and short through simple runs (QB or FB) up the middle.
Top 25 teams also tend to get stronger in November, a depth issue not covered by looking only at what the starters contribute.

 

[Rocco]

Yet another very dedicated post. Cheers to you SWC, and many thanks.

 

[atcar]

Interesting stats and kudos to you for taking the time to research all of the info.

I agree with some of the other posts. Fresh legs should help and hopefully we will have the depth this year to use them.

 

[Millhouse]

We would like, ultimately, to return to the status of a perennial Top 25 team. To do that, you need to have the numbers of a Top 25 team and that means your players have to accumulate those numbers. Last year I calculated the average numbers for the top quarterbacks, running backs and receivers of each team listed in the Top 25, (the writers or coach’s poll- I didn’t use the BCS as it didn’t include the bowls), for the previous season and compared them to the projected numbers of their Syracuse equivalents as the 2011 season went along.

I’m going to do the same thing this year but I’ve tweaked it slightly. Some team alternate running backs or even quarterbacks, (LSU did both last year). Some teams have to replace injured starters at those positions or decide to displace a healthy one. When that happens their top running back or quarterback won’t have the numbers of a guy was the #1 guy all year. When the numbers seemed to indicate that there was a rotation or switch, I added the numbers of the top two runners or quarterbacks together to represent what a clear #1 guy would have had for that team.

Also, I found last year that the numbers of the leading receiver didn’t necessarily indicate the full capabilities of the passing game. The numbers of the second best receiver were important, too. (Alec Lemon and Nick Provo were a classic example). Unlike the running back and quarterback, the two top receivers are out there together. For that reason, I figured out the average numbers of the top two receivers, (defined by yardage, not catches), for the Top 25 teams last year.

Here is what I came up with, (there are 26 teams because USC was not listed in the coach’s poll, creating an extra spot for BYU):

Alabama QB 219/328 2634yds 16TD/5int RB 283c 1679yds 21tds
WR1 56r 627yds 1TD WR2 34r 356yds 4TDs
Louisiana State QB 165/267 2034yds 20TD/5int RB 304c 1463yds 15TDs
WR1 53r 917yds 8TDs WR2 41r 475yds 2TDs
Oklahoma State QB 408/564 4,727yds 37TD 13int RB 208c 1216yds 24TDs
WR1 121r 1522yds 18TDs WR2 71r 715yds 3TDs
Oregon QB 211/339 2761yds 33TDs/7int RB 247c 1805yds 18TDs
WR1 46r 605yds 9TDs WR2 48r 599yds 10TDS
Arkansas QB 277/438 3638yds 24TD/6int RB 210r 1128yds 6TDs
WR1 66r 1117yds 12tds WR2 54r 652yds 3TDs
Southern California QB 308/446 3528yds 39TD/7int RB 267r 1573yds 10TDs
WR1 111r 1292yds 15TDs WR2 73r 1143yds 11TDs
Stanford QB 288/404 3517yds 37TDs/10int RB 242r 1330yds 10TDs
WR1 56r 749yds 4tds WR2 34R 667yds 10TD
Boise State QB 326/439 3800yds 43TD/9int RB 263c 1299yds 16TDs
WR1 62r 994yds 16TDs WR2 62r 679yds 9TDs
South Carolina QB 184/306 2292yds 18TDs/15int RB 270c 1304yds 13TDs
WR1 49r 762yds 8TDs WR2 29r 383yds 2TDs
Michigan QB 142/258 2173yds 20TD/15int RB 237c 1339yds 11TDs
WR1 34r 699yds 4TDs WR2 31r 453yds 3TDs
Michigan State QB 267/419 3316yds 25TDs/10int RB 352r 1613yds 13TDs
WR1 79r 1306yds 12TDs WR2 66r 777yds 4TDs
Wisconsin QB 225/309 3175yds 33TDs/4int RB 307c 1923yds 33TDs
WR1 55r 933yds 8TDs WR2 64r 926yds 10TDs
Baylor QB 291/402 4293yds 37TD/6int RB 250c 1547yds 21TDs
WR1 108r 1663yds 14TDs WR2 59r 957yds 11TDs
Texas Christian QB 228/343 2921yds 25TDs/7int RB 241c 1601yds 12TDs
WR1 61r 998yds 9TDs WR2 45r 500yds 5TDs
Houston QB 428/603 5631yds 48TDs/5int RB 248c 1548yds 20TDs
WR1 89r 1752yds 20TDs WR2 87r 1229yds 12TDs
Oklahoma QB 355/562 4463yds 29TDs/15int RB 224c 1232yds 12TDs
WR1 83r 1157yds 10TDs WR2 61r 849yds 8TDs
Kansas State QB 161/281 1918yds 13TDs/6int RB 317c 1141yds 27TDs
WR1 40r 547yds 5TDs WR2 21r 338yds 1TD
Virginia Tech QB 234/391 3013yds 19TDs/10int RB 290c 1709yds 9TDs
WR1 60r 904yds 3TDs WR2 61r 761yds 5TDs
West Virginia QB 346/526 4385yds 31TD/7int RB 233c 1158yds 18TDs
WR1 72r 1279yds 12TDs WR2 101r 1186yds 8TDs
Southern Mississippi QB 286/475 3496yds 30TDs/11int RB 201r 1195yds 6Tds
WR1 49r 747yds 8TDs WR2 58r 671yds 5TDs
Georgia QB 238/403 3149yds 35TDs/14int RB 258c 1211yds 7TDs
WR1 47R 705yds 8Tds WR2 45r 665yds 4TDs
Cincinnati QB 221/388 2633yds 20TDs/14int RB 237c 1259yds 12TDs
WR1 49r 683yds 6TDs WR2 44r 536yds 2TDs
Clemson QB 298/499 3828yds 33TDs/12int RB 223c 1178yds 11TDs
WR1 82r 1219yds 12TDs WR2 72r 978yds 5TDs
Florida State QB 203/311 2666yds 18TDS 8ints RB 181r 858yds 9TDs
WR1 38r 596yds 7TDs WR2 36r 561yds 4TDs
Nebraska QB 162/288 2089yds 13TDs/8int RB 284r 1357yds 15TDs
WR1 32r 461yds 3TDs WR2 21r 293yds 2TDs
Brigham Young QB 260/454 3169yds 28TDs/15int RB 201c 1039yds 6TDs
WR1 61r 943yds 10TDs WR2 34r 453yds 9TDs

Averages:
QB 259/402 (.644%) 3281yds (12.7 per completion/8.2 per attempt) 28TDs/9int
RB 253c 1373yds (5.4) 14TDs
WR1 64r 968yds (15.1) 9TDs
WR2 52r 685yds (13.2) 6TDs

Syracuse last year:
QB (Ryan Nassib) 259/415 (.624%) 2685yds (10.4 per completion/6.5 per attempt) 22TDs/9int
RB (Antwon Bailey) 240c 1051yds (4.4) 6TDs
WR1 (Alec Lemon) 68R 834yds (12.3) 6TDs
WR2 Nick Provo 51r 537yds (10.5) 7TDs

We weren’t that far from having a Top 25 type offense last year. Ryan Nassib had exactly the average number of completions and his completion percentage wasn’t very far off, (.624 vs. .644). Ant Bailey ran for 1000 yards and Alec Lemon set a school record for receptions with 68- four more than the average #1 receiver for a top 25 team. Nick Provo set a school record for receptions by a tight end with 51- one less than the second best receiver for an average Top 25 team.

But there were holes in that resume. Nassib’s average per completion, (10.4 vs. 12.7) and per attempt, (6.5 vs. 8.2) were well behind that of an average top 25 quarterback. He was throwing shorter than the Top 25 guys, which makes his completion percentage suspect compared to theirs. Of course it could be a lack of “YAC”- yards after catch. Lost of passes these days are thrown short with the expectation that the receiver will break it long. Lemon, (12.3 per catch vs. 15.1 for an average Top 5 #1 receiver) and Provo (10.5 vs. 13.2) didn’t have a lot of YAC.

And gaining 1000 yards isn’t that big a deal for a running back in these days of 12 regular season games and 70 teams going to bowl games- which now count in the season’s numbers. Only one Top 20 team failed to get 1000 yards out of it’s top, (or top 2) tailbacks. Ant Bailey did a pretty good job for us last year in a role he wasn’t fully suited for, (he’s better in space than as a between-the-tackles guy), but his 4.4 average per carry is a full yard below the top 25 average.

Basically we were a competent offensive team- one that could complete passes and get the running back at least to the line of scrimmage. What we lacked was what Top 25 teams have in abundance- the speed to take it all the way. That’s what we need if we are going to become one of them.

most good offenses these days either get yards rushing by QBs or lots of yards receiving by 3rd and 4th receivers

if you want to judge offenses, look at yards by the whole offense.

 

[Orangello]

Excellent post and confirms what we all know by now. We are not stretching the field with the long ball and/or are not getting enough yards after the catch. We have to score more TD's both on the ground and through the air. We need more offensive weapons all the way around.

 

[Millhouse]

Excellent post and confirms what we all know by now. We are not stretching the field with the long ball and/or are not getting enough yards after the catch. We have to score more TD's both on the ground and through the air. We need more offensive weapons all the way around.

you can't look at qb passing only, qb rushing, and 2 receivers.

that's a dinosaur way of looking at the game and to me it looks like intentional cherry picking.

doing this drops all the production of rushing qbs and or 3rd and 4th receivers on the floor.

Houston's #3 wr had 958 yards last year. why would one leave that out?

 

[Chip]

you can't look at qb passing only, qb rushing, and 2 receivers.

that's a dinosaur way of looking at the game and to me it looks like intentional cherry picking.

doing this drops all the production of rushing qbs and or 3rd and 4th receivers on the floor.

Houston's #3 wr had 958 yards last year. why would one leave that out?

Because he didn't have 1,000. He sucks.

We also lose yards or downs with an OL that can't protect the QB. Might not always be a sack, but could be a throwaway as well. We can't protect consistently enough to sustain long drives and turn them into 7.

 

[SoBristol]

you can't look at qb passing only, qb rushing, and 2 receivers.

that's a dinosaur way of looking at the game and to me it looks like intentional cherry picking.

doing this drops all the production of rushing qbs and or 3rd and 4th receivers on the floor.

Houston's #3 wr had 958 yards last year. why would one leave that out?

Correct. So if our offense in total ranks #90 or so, but our starting QB (passing only), RB and two WRs look OK in comparison to top 25 teams, some conclusions can be drawn.
We didn't have a dual threat QB -- many high scoring teams (not all of course) do.
We were very limited in our number of playmakers.
Our offense was more predictable than most, since so much production came from a few guys.
We weren't very exciting (low YAC, low yards per carry).

 

[SWC75]

Correct. So if our offense in total ranks #90 or so, but our starting QB (passing only), RB and two WRs look OK in comparison to top 25 teams, some conclusions can be drawn.
We didn't have a dual threat QB -- many high scoring teams (not all of course) do.
We were very limited in our number of playmakers.
Our offense was more predictable than most, since so much production came from a few guys.
We weren't very exciting (low YAC, low yards per carry).

Sometimes what isn't there is what a statistic is telling you.

 

[Millhouse]

Sometimes what isn't there is what a statistic is telling you.

your takeaway from your original post was simply that we lack speed but i don't how you get to that conclusion by ignoring qb rushing and receiving by rbs and 3rd and 4th receivers.

 

[SWC75]

your takeaway from your original post was simply that we lack speed but i don't how you get to that conclusion by ignoring qb rushing and receiving by rbs and 3rd and 4th receivers.

Is that where your speed is?