Something else to consider regarding our NCAA chances

[pearl31]

Louisville is ineligible for the tourney. Clemson, Fla St and Ga Tech have all played themselves out of the tourney barring miraculous ACC tourney run(s).
That leaves 7 ACC teams with legit chances for NCAA bids, Syracuse being the 7th (or perhaps Pitt if they crap the bad in the coming week). I just don't think there's any way the ACC gets fewer than 7.

Now, there's certainly no magic minimum number the ACC has to get. And of course it has been repeatedly stated over the years that the committee does not worry about how many bids each conference gets. But I'm willing to bet that even if it isn't directly/explicitly discussed in that committee room, there is implicit push to get at least X number of teams from each P5 conference.

 

[jdubs30]

Good post. Has another conference earned the extra bid or 2 from the ACC? PAC12? B10? B12? I don't really think so. The more and more we look at it the more I think a win Saturday locks us in, no matter what happens to us in the ACCT.

 

[NineOneSeven]

there will be a couple of teams who win their tournament that steal a bid. happens every year, no?

 

[RandygoCuse]

there will be a couple of teams who win their tournament that steal a bid. happens every year, no?

Perhaps, but is this likely to happen in a major conference or a one-bid conference?

 

[Brooky03]

there will be a couple of teams who win their tournament that steal a bid. happens every year, no?

Yup. I think that's accounted for since it happens every year, so the extra bids are still extras.

 

[DonLightfoot]

What if a miracle happens and BC or WF win the ACCT? Not likely, but where would that put us for example?

 

[MSOrange]

What if a miracle happens and BC or WF win the ACCT? Not likely, but where would that put us for example?

Nobody would have to worry about the tournament because the world will have ended at that point.

 

[2-3zone]

All I know is 19-12, 9-9 is extreme borderline for making the tourney

20-11, 10-8 looks and feels much better

Saturday is a MUST win

 

[sabach]

What if a miracle happens and BC or WF win the ACCT? Not likely, but where would that put us for example?

Depends on how we do. If we make the ACCT semis by beating UNC, it really doesn't matter who wins the ACCT, we are in.

 

[Alsacs]

If BC wins the ACCT then it should go Dayton and earn its way into the main field as a 16 seed.

 

[sabach]

If BC wins the ACCT then it should go Dayton and earn its way into the main field as a 16 seed.

What would the committee do? What seed would you give a BC team. Note sure they would get a 16 but they would have to get an 11 to have to be in the play in game otherwise. No way they would get an 11.

 

[Alsacs]

What would the committee do? What seed would you give a BC team. Note sure they would get a 16 but they would have to get an 11 to have to be in the play in game otherwise. No way they would get an 11.

Only the bottom 4 automatic bid teams go to the First Four. I would argue BC would be one of the four worst automatic berth teams if they won the ACCT.

The last 4 at-larges go to the First Four.

When Georgia won the SEC title in 2008 they got a 14 seed. If BC won the ACCT they would be a 15 or 16 seed.

 

[sabach]

Only the bottom 4 automatic bid teams go to the First Four. I would argue BC would be one of the four worst automatic berth teams if they won the ACCT.

The last 4 at-larges go to the First Four.

When Georgia won the SEC title in 2008 they got a 14 seed. If BC won the ACCT they would be a 15 or 16 seed.

So the 11-11 or 10-10 play in games cannot have auto bid teams? I didn't know that. I think the teams BC would have to beat to go 5-0 and win the ACCT would alone put them above at last 4 teams in the bracket so as to avoid a 16.

 

[Alsacs]

So the 11-11 or 10-10 play in games cannot have auto bid teams? I didn't know that. I think the teams BC would have to beat to go 5-0 and win the ACCT would alone put them above at last 4 teams in the bracket so as to avoid a 16.

Correct. Say a team like Wake Forest won the ACCT. They would be in the main field and couldn't be in the First Four unless they were one of the 4 worst conference champions.

The last 4 at-large teams are always going to be in the First Four.

BC is just so bad though. 7-22 most likely 7-24. They would win 5 games in the ACCT but still 12-24 would be one of the worst 4 champions IMO.

They would be a 15 or 16 seed.

 

[pearl31]

All I know is 19-12, 9-9 is extreme borderline for making the tourney

20-11, 10-8 looks and feels much better

Saturday is a MUST win

except that you don't really know what you're talking about and ought to pay attention to the posts made by jncuse and a few others

 

[sabach]

Correct. Say a team like Wake Forest won the ACCT. They would be in the main field and couldn't be in the First Four unless they were one of the 4 worst conference champions.

The last 4 at-large teams are always going to be in the First Four.

BC is just so bad though. 7-22 most likely 7-24. They would win 5 games in the ACCT but still 12-24 would be one of the worst 4 champions IMO.

They would be a 15 or 16 seed.

That's right. The 11-11 or 10-10 play in games are for the last four at large teams. I did know that I just forgot. Here's hoping we win Saturday and are not one of those last four at large teams.

 

[2-3zone]

except that you don't really know what you're talking about and ought to pay attention to the posts made by jncuse and a few others

You are the self proclaimed expert on this board so tell us how a loss Saturday to a bad Florida St. team is a good thing

 

[pearl31]

You are the self proclaimed expert on this board so tell us how a loss Saturday to a bad Florida St. team is a good thing

A "bad" Florida St. team, lol
Losing Saturday a good thing? Who is saying that? More like a neutral thing.
A road loss to a team that is favored isn't any sort of crippling loss.

Once again - you and many others are looking at Syracuse without considering or being aware of the other teams that could take Syracuse's bid. Those teams, bluntly, are currently crap.
Unless crazy bid stealing occurs with conf tourneys we'll be fine with a win either against FSU or the ACC tourney.

 

[CorduroyG]

A "bad" Florida St. team, lol
Losing Saturday a good thing? Who is saying that? More like a neutral thing.
A road loss to a team that is favored isn't any sort of crippling loss.

Once again - you and many others are looking at Syracuse without considering or being aware of the other teams that could take Syracuse's bid. Those teams, bluntly, are currently crap.
Unless crazy bid stealing occurs with conf tourneys we'll be fine with a win either against FSU or the ACC tourney.

losing saturday would be a big loss. unc was a "neutral" loss in that it didnt really affect our seeding. if we lose saturday it we'll definitely drop. we'd basically be playing an elimination game next wednesday if we lose saturday. and we'd probably need to win 2 acc tourny games to avoid the first four. saturday is a HUGE game.

 

[pearl31]

we'd probably need to win 2 acc tourny games to avoid the first four.

With all due respect, this is not true.
(Barring multiple unexpected conf tourney winners)

 

[CorduroyG]

With all due respect, this is not true.
(Barring multiple unexpected conf tourney winners)

i dont know, right now palm has us as a 9 seed and considers us "on the bubble". if we lose to fsu we probably drop to a 10? maybe 11? i realize other teams around us arent doing much but we still need to win. lose to fsu, beat va tech, lose to unc, that means only a 9-9 conference record and we finished up 2-5. very dicey, no way would i feel 100% confident on selection sunday with that scenario.

 

[pearl31]

that means only a 9-9 conference record and we finished up 2-5. very dicey, no way would i feel 100% confident on selection sunday with that scenario.

actually it would be construed as 10-10 conference record.
gotta look at in relation to the other teams around us - it's better than a number of those

 

[jncuse]

I think the ACC teams will basically be looked at "per the numbers", without concern for affiliation (as they are supposed to)

But I think an ACC bubble teams could have an advantage due to the following:
1) The AAC has not been treated with much respect the last 2 years by the committee. And they are all over the bubble.
2) The A-10 sometimes has felt robbed by the committee. They have 1 team just in, 2 teams just out.
3) The P12 -- while the ACC numbers may be taken at face value, I am not convinced they will do the same for the P12 due to lack of elite teams. Will the committee discount them a bit, because it's all inbred top 50 home wins that is they key to a resume like Oregon St.

On the other hand I think a few B10 teams like Michigan and Oho St, could get the benefit of the doubt (with respect to the fact that they really do not play any 50-100 games in conference). While a whole bunch of sub 100 teams in that conference, committee may think that Nebraska, Penn St, Northwestern are not all that bad, and that thosw wins should not be outright ignored

 

[Alsacs]

I think the ACC teams will basically be looked at "per the numbers", without concern for affiliation (as they are supposed to)

But I think an ACC bubble teams could have an advantage due to the following:
1) The AAC has not been treated with much respect the last 2 years by the committee. And they are all over the bubble.
2) The A-10 sometimes has felt robbed by the committee. They have 1 team just in, 2 teams just out.
3) The P12 -- while the ACC numbers may be taken at face value, I am not convinced they will do the same for the P12 due to lack of elite teams. Will the committee discount them a bit, because it's all inbred top 50 home wins that is they key to a resume like Oregon St.

On the other hand I think a few B10 teams like Michigan and Oho St, could get the benefit of the doubt (with respect to the fact that they really do not play any 50-100 games in conference). While a whole bunch of sub 100 teams in that conference, committee may think that Nebraska, Penn St, Northwestern are not all that bad, and that thosw wins should not be outright ignored

The fact is as well we have better resumes than Michigan and Ohio State.

Ohio State has wins over Iowa and Kentucky-N but they lost to UT-Arlington, Memphis, and La Tech.

Ohio State shouldn't get in without beating Michigan State this weekend or making the Big Ten Semis. Ohio State has fattened up on the bottom of the Big Ten this year which is awful.

Michigan just has a thin resume and they have been leaking oil. I think we matchup better than if we lose to FSU and win 1 ACCT game.

 

[jncuse]

The fact is as well we have better resumes than Michigan and Ohio State.

Ohio State has wins over Iowa and Kentucky-N but they lost to UT-Arlington, Memphis, and La Tech.

Ohio State shouldn't get in without beating Michigan State this weekend or making the Big Ten Semis. Ohio State has fattened up on the bottom of the Big Ten this year which is awful.

Michigan just has a thin resume and they have been leaking oil. I think we matchup better than if we lose to FSU and win 1 ACCT game.

Ohio St won't even be considered without some victory that is really significant. But at that point when they are close to the line, one of the major weakness on the resume could be forgiven (Lack of top 100 wins) because they don't play many such games. Just raising a mindset possibility.