General20
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One thing you need to know about this game is how bad South Carolina St. is. They are really bad. If you gave them a 100 point head start, and SU played at 100%, SU would have something close to a 50/50 shot of winning the game.
Of course SU wasn't trying to win by 100. Instead they used this game as a glorified practice, and worked on things that will hopefully help them later on in the year. We saw a 100% SU for about the first five minutes of the game and at the end of that time SU was leading 15-3 with the 3 points they gave up coming on a flukie heave with the shot clock expiring.
At this point SU started pressing which played into South Carolina State's hands (they are bad at basketball, but quick).
Syracuse's press bothered South Carolina St for the first three or four possessions. In fact, all of South Carolina St.'s first 10 points came on fluke plays (blocks that fell into their lap for a layup, or a tipped pass that just so happened to trickle to another South Carolina St player for an open shot, things like that).
At this point in the game South Carolina St. did something interesting. They changed how they attacked our press. They played 5 guards, and brought all 5 up to receive the in bounds pass. When one got it, three of the others would streak down the field like wide receivers on a go route, and whoever had the ball would launch a pass to one of them like a QB throwing a hail mary. It worked really well and usually left them with two or three against one situations, which (1) Chukwu didn't handle particularly well and (2) a freshman on their team named Fields did a great job finishing (with what I'd call Gillon-sytle circus lay ups).
Boeheim could have adjusted Syracuse's press to cope with this strategy, but he didn't. Why? Of course I can only guess, but I think he liked that Chukwu was being put in 2 on 1 and 3 on 1 situations (Chukwu has a habit of attacking the ball handler instead of holding his ground and letting them come to him and that's not the right way to defend multiple players). My guess is, Boeheim likes that he has tape he can now use to instruct Chukwu on how to properly defend the rim when we press.
For about ten minutes the game devolved into an unstructured transition-filled mess which favored South Carolina St's smaller quicker players. After scoring 15 points in the first 5 minutes SU only scored 10 points in the next 10 minutes. At this point Boeheim subbed out the pressing unit (which is basically all the back ups) and put the starters back in, and the tide immediately turned. Syraucse scored 21 points in the last 5 minutes of the half . . . it wasn't all starters either . . . after the bench guys got a couple minutes of coaching up they went back out there and played well. One of the underrated aspects of having a deep bench is the ability to bring guys off the floor and explain things to them mid-game without hurting your talent level on the court.
I don't have much to say about the second half. Chukwu looked a lot better in the second half than the first half, which hopefully means he's coachable. Syracuse didn't press, South Carolina St. had no chance to do anything. The score was 94-47 (48-16 in the second half) when Boeheim put the walk on's in with 3 minutes to go.
Our walk on's played their starters relatively evenly, then our back up walk on squad (yes we have a back up walk on group, and if you missed them you probably won't see them again) got smoked by their starters. This paragraph alone should give you a good idea of the quality (or lack thereof) of the team we were playing.
The last thing I'll say about this game is our zone looked great. I didn't get a chance to write anything about the Monmouth game, but Monmouth is a good team. They wouldn't finish last in the ACC. They'd be closer to middle of the pack, and we beat them by 30+ even though we had a C or D level offensive performance. That's a great sign in my book. I thought our zone made another big stride forward against Monmoth, and it looked even bette in this game - with the obvious caveat that South Carolina St could not create much stress for our defenders.
I'm not going to do an individual player evaluation for this game because, honestly, what's the point? Instead I'll give my prognostications on how each player will perform moving forward. Its a long year and every college team evolves as the year moves along. We know this team will be much different in March than it is right now. The question is, how will it be different? Here are some guesses.
Howard - Prognosis: Excellent! Lets all acknowledge that its basically impossible to shoot 58% from 3 (which is what Howard is shooting now) for an entire season and the law of averages says he's going to have a couple off nights from deep and his shooting percentage from 3 is going to fall quite a bit. Lets also acknowledge that even if his 3 point shooting percentage drops 20 points he'll still be a great shooter. I think Howard's shooting (while good) is going to be by far the least impressive part of his game. Monmouth's best player was a short quick point guard named Robinson who you can think of as a better version of Gillon, and who was really good defensively. Gillon couldn't get by him. Howard could. In fact, Howard handled him pretty easily. As good as Howard has been so far, he's not best against packed in zone defenses (which is mostly what we've seen). Howard wants to be guarded man to man, and he wants space to drive to the basket. Against better teams he'll get more of that. I think he will flourish driving to the hoop and finishing - this aspect of his game has improved just as much as his shooting. I haven't mentioned his passing yet. Best since Douglas? Its not out of the question. I want to see him improve defensively. He's a million times better than he was last year, but still not quite as good as he can be. Overall I'm bullish on Howard. Last year he was terrible both offensively and defensively (except in the tournament) and his freshman to sophomore leap might reach Fab Melo levels before its all over.
White - Prognosis: Poor (relative to what we've seen so far). Right now White is leading the team in scoring, I don't think that's going to continue. So far we've only come up against short teams who play zone against us and dare us to shoot from deep. This is a dream defense for a guy like White and because of it he's only been asked to do what he's best at so far. Some teams will choose to play us this way going forward, but most wont. Things will get more difficult for White offensively, and defensively he'll probably never be better than average, which mean's he'll spend a little more time on the bench for us than he did for Nebraska last year. I'm not saying that White will completely disappear or stink up the joint - after all the guy scored 17 a game and shot 40% from 3 in the Big 10 last year. But I don't think he's going to get as many shots later in the season as he's gotten thus far, and you can bet the bank on him not getting the quality shots later in the season that he's getting right now. Expect 12-14 points per game when its all said and done, rather than the 18 points per game he's putting up right now.
Lydon - Prognosis: Good (relative to how he's playing now)/Poor (relative to expectations for him). Lydon is a great basketball player. He's going to score down low when forwards try to guard him, and he's going to score from 3 when bigs try to guard him. He's going to grab a lot of rebounds and block a lot of shots. He's going to score in double digets almost every game and do it efficiently. What I don't think he's going to do is be "the man." To explain that better, I don't think he's going to be a high volume shooter or scorer for us. I also don't think he's going to be the guy who has the ball in his hands when we most need a basket. Its just not who he is or how he plays best. He's more of a complimentary player who capitalizes on the shots that other players create. He will be extremely valuable for us in this role but some will be disappointed that he's not taking the game into his own hands when things get tough.
Roberson - Prognosis: Excellent! Roberson has looked much improved so far this year. Shooting better, handling the ball better, and scoring around the basket better. And mid-majors are not the teams that players like Roberson thrive against. At his core Roberson is still that guy who does the dirty work and gets the garbage baskets. You need that guy against the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Wisconsin . . . you don't need that guy against Colgate, Monmoth, South Carolina St. The best is yet to come for Roberson. I think he may be the single most important player on our team when we play Wisconsin.
Coleman - Prognosis: Poor. My favorite player on this team. The hardest worker on this team. His hard work has paid off too. He's shooting the ball great, rebounding the ball great, and scoring in the post. His per 40 numbers are outstanding. I just can't get over the fact that he offers zero rim protection. Its the one thing we need most from our center and its the thing that his many leg injuries prevent him from being able to do. Coleman will have his highlights this year, and he will be an invaluable leader off the court. But in every game so far this year Coleman has played the fewest minutes of any scholarship player, and I expect that to continue.
Gillon - Prognosis: Steady (but Poor if you expect him to split time with Howard). Boeheim sees Gillon as an offensive spark plug off the bench. He wants Gillon to come in and take a lot of shots and shake things up. I don't think that translates to a ton of minutes, but I do think its an important role on the team. Boeheim will always have Gillon in his back pocket, waiting for the perfect time to play him and shake the opposition up, like a knock out puncher jabbing with his left hand but holing his right hand back and cocked waiting for that perfect moment to land a power blow.
Battle - Prognosis: Excellent! We all heard it. Battle is great driving to the basket and not as good shooting. Well he is shooting great. He's not driving to the basket but there's good reason for that. Every team we've played so far has zoned us. Its not in Boeheim's best interest to force feed offense to a freshman trying to figure out the myriad of zones being put up against us. I'd hold off on judging Battle in 2016. He's the most talented player on the team, but he's still a freshman playing with two fifth year seniors and a sophomore who went to a final four and is a team leader. I expect Battle to be fully unleashed around the start of ACC play (also around the start of 2017) when teams start playing more straight up man to man against us than they do now, and Battle has a few months under his belt.
Thompson - Prognosis: Poor (relative to what he's done so far). Thompson is probably the most offensively skilled freshman big man Syracuse has ever had. He's been a revelation. Unfortunately he's being played on the wing 100% of the time, and he's not quick enough to cover the wing against top competition. If he plays long minutes there he's going to be found out, so I think he's playing limited minutes, unless he makes the change to center, which is still possible. If that change happens I'll reevaluate. In the not too distant future I do expect Thompson to be an all time great center for us.
Chukwu - Prognosis - Too Early To Tell. We know Chukwu blocks and alters a lot of shots. We know Chukwu is a poor offensive player. What we don't know yet is how he is going to perform against big guys who bang down low for position, and big guys with good post moves (the kind of player we were vulnerable to last year). If this Syracuse team has a weakness its going to be defending good scoring centers. We haven't played a good center yet so there is no way to know how Chukwu will fare. We won't know until we play Wisconsin. Last year Happ (Wisconsin's center) ate Lydon alive down low, scoring 18 points, with 15 rebounds, and was the only reason we lost to Wisconsin (other than missing free throws which would have iced the game). Happ is a 6'10 center who knows where he wants to be in the paint and is strong enough to force his way there. He also has arguably the best footwork of any center we will go up against all year. He's the perfect test for Chukwu. If Chukwu can frustrate Happ, then he will likely frustrate every center we come up against all year, and the one weakness we may have goes away.
The Team - Expect blow out wins against South Carolina, Connecticut, and St. Johns.
Wisconsin is going to be the team that shows us the most. We are lucky to play them this year. They are a big team, not athletic, but skilled. They shoot well, play at a slow tempo, and don't turn the ball over. They will attack us both inside and outside, and on the boards. They are one of the 5 or 6 teams best suited to playing us. If we beat them in Wisconsin it will say a lot.
If you want to worry about somebody upsetting us in the pre-season, Georgetown maybe could if they played their best game.
Syracuse's conference schedule is really tough, there aren't many games that will be easy. Now and again Syracuse will have off days. There will be bad shooting days and days where our guys are just plain beat up, and most of the teams we play are capable of taking advantage of that. I expect Syracuse to have at least two "bad" losses (in this case I define a bad loss as a loss to anybody except Duke, UNC, and Louisville).
If my predictions are right and if they stay healthy (two pretty big ifs) expect Syracuse to have somewhere between 4-7 losses this year depending on how the breaks go.
Of course SU wasn't trying to win by 100. Instead they used this game as a glorified practice, and worked on things that will hopefully help them later on in the year. We saw a 100% SU for about the first five minutes of the game and at the end of that time SU was leading 15-3 with the 3 points they gave up coming on a flukie heave with the shot clock expiring.
At this point SU started pressing which played into South Carolina State's hands (they are bad at basketball, but quick).
Syracuse's press bothered South Carolina St for the first three or four possessions. In fact, all of South Carolina St.'s first 10 points came on fluke plays (blocks that fell into their lap for a layup, or a tipped pass that just so happened to trickle to another South Carolina St player for an open shot, things like that).
At this point in the game South Carolina St. did something interesting. They changed how they attacked our press. They played 5 guards, and brought all 5 up to receive the in bounds pass. When one got it, three of the others would streak down the field like wide receivers on a go route, and whoever had the ball would launch a pass to one of them like a QB throwing a hail mary. It worked really well and usually left them with two or three against one situations, which (1) Chukwu didn't handle particularly well and (2) a freshman on their team named Fields did a great job finishing (with what I'd call Gillon-sytle circus lay ups).
Boeheim could have adjusted Syracuse's press to cope with this strategy, but he didn't. Why? Of course I can only guess, but I think he liked that Chukwu was being put in 2 on 1 and 3 on 1 situations (Chukwu has a habit of attacking the ball handler instead of holding his ground and letting them come to him and that's not the right way to defend multiple players). My guess is, Boeheim likes that he has tape he can now use to instruct Chukwu on how to properly defend the rim when we press.
For about ten minutes the game devolved into an unstructured transition-filled mess which favored South Carolina St's smaller quicker players. After scoring 15 points in the first 5 minutes SU only scored 10 points in the next 10 minutes. At this point Boeheim subbed out the pressing unit (which is basically all the back ups) and put the starters back in, and the tide immediately turned. Syraucse scored 21 points in the last 5 minutes of the half . . . it wasn't all starters either . . . after the bench guys got a couple minutes of coaching up they went back out there and played well. One of the underrated aspects of having a deep bench is the ability to bring guys off the floor and explain things to them mid-game without hurting your talent level on the court.
I don't have much to say about the second half. Chukwu looked a lot better in the second half than the first half, which hopefully means he's coachable. Syracuse didn't press, South Carolina St. had no chance to do anything. The score was 94-47 (48-16 in the second half) when Boeheim put the walk on's in with 3 minutes to go.
Our walk on's played their starters relatively evenly, then our back up walk on squad (yes we have a back up walk on group, and if you missed them you probably won't see them again) got smoked by their starters. This paragraph alone should give you a good idea of the quality (or lack thereof) of the team we were playing.
The last thing I'll say about this game is our zone looked great. I didn't get a chance to write anything about the Monmouth game, but Monmouth is a good team. They wouldn't finish last in the ACC. They'd be closer to middle of the pack, and we beat them by 30+ even though we had a C or D level offensive performance. That's a great sign in my book. I thought our zone made another big stride forward against Monmoth, and it looked even bette in this game - with the obvious caveat that South Carolina St could not create much stress for our defenders.
I'm not going to do an individual player evaluation for this game because, honestly, what's the point? Instead I'll give my prognostications on how each player will perform moving forward. Its a long year and every college team evolves as the year moves along. We know this team will be much different in March than it is right now. The question is, how will it be different? Here are some guesses.
Howard - Prognosis: Excellent! Lets all acknowledge that its basically impossible to shoot 58% from 3 (which is what Howard is shooting now) for an entire season and the law of averages says he's going to have a couple off nights from deep and his shooting percentage from 3 is going to fall quite a bit. Lets also acknowledge that even if his 3 point shooting percentage drops 20 points he'll still be a great shooter. I think Howard's shooting (while good) is going to be by far the least impressive part of his game. Monmouth's best player was a short quick point guard named Robinson who you can think of as a better version of Gillon, and who was really good defensively. Gillon couldn't get by him. Howard could. In fact, Howard handled him pretty easily. As good as Howard has been so far, he's not best against packed in zone defenses (which is mostly what we've seen). Howard wants to be guarded man to man, and he wants space to drive to the basket. Against better teams he'll get more of that. I think he will flourish driving to the hoop and finishing - this aspect of his game has improved just as much as his shooting. I haven't mentioned his passing yet. Best since Douglas? Its not out of the question. I want to see him improve defensively. He's a million times better than he was last year, but still not quite as good as he can be. Overall I'm bullish on Howard. Last year he was terrible both offensively and defensively (except in the tournament) and his freshman to sophomore leap might reach Fab Melo levels before its all over.
White - Prognosis: Poor (relative to what we've seen so far). Right now White is leading the team in scoring, I don't think that's going to continue. So far we've only come up against short teams who play zone against us and dare us to shoot from deep. This is a dream defense for a guy like White and because of it he's only been asked to do what he's best at so far. Some teams will choose to play us this way going forward, but most wont. Things will get more difficult for White offensively, and defensively he'll probably never be better than average, which mean's he'll spend a little more time on the bench for us than he did for Nebraska last year. I'm not saying that White will completely disappear or stink up the joint - after all the guy scored 17 a game and shot 40% from 3 in the Big 10 last year. But I don't think he's going to get as many shots later in the season as he's gotten thus far, and you can bet the bank on him not getting the quality shots later in the season that he's getting right now. Expect 12-14 points per game when its all said and done, rather than the 18 points per game he's putting up right now.
Lydon - Prognosis: Good (relative to how he's playing now)/Poor (relative to expectations for him). Lydon is a great basketball player. He's going to score down low when forwards try to guard him, and he's going to score from 3 when bigs try to guard him. He's going to grab a lot of rebounds and block a lot of shots. He's going to score in double digets almost every game and do it efficiently. What I don't think he's going to do is be "the man." To explain that better, I don't think he's going to be a high volume shooter or scorer for us. I also don't think he's going to be the guy who has the ball in his hands when we most need a basket. Its just not who he is or how he plays best. He's more of a complimentary player who capitalizes on the shots that other players create. He will be extremely valuable for us in this role but some will be disappointed that he's not taking the game into his own hands when things get tough.
Roberson - Prognosis: Excellent! Roberson has looked much improved so far this year. Shooting better, handling the ball better, and scoring around the basket better. And mid-majors are not the teams that players like Roberson thrive against. At his core Roberson is still that guy who does the dirty work and gets the garbage baskets. You need that guy against the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Wisconsin . . . you don't need that guy against Colgate, Monmoth, South Carolina St. The best is yet to come for Roberson. I think he may be the single most important player on our team when we play Wisconsin.
Coleman - Prognosis: Poor. My favorite player on this team. The hardest worker on this team. His hard work has paid off too. He's shooting the ball great, rebounding the ball great, and scoring in the post. His per 40 numbers are outstanding. I just can't get over the fact that he offers zero rim protection. Its the one thing we need most from our center and its the thing that his many leg injuries prevent him from being able to do. Coleman will have his highlights this year, and he will be an invaluable leader off the court. But in every game so far this year Coleman has played the fewest minutes of any scholarship player, and I expect that to continue.
Gillon - Prognosis: Steady (but Poor if you expect him to split time with Howard). Boeheim sees Gillon as an offensive spark plug off the bench. He wants Gillon to come in and take a lot of shots and shake things up. I don't think that translates to a ton of minutes, but I do think its an important role on the team. Boeheim will always have Gillon in his back pocket, waiting for the perfect time to play him and shake the opposition up, like a knock out puncher jabbing with his left hand but holing his right hand back and cocked waiting for that perfect moment to land a power blow.
Battle - Prognosis: Excellent! We all heard it. Battle is great driving to the basket and not as good shooting. Well he is shooting great. He's not driving to the basket but there's good reason for that. Every team we've played so far has zoned us. Its not in Boeheim's best interest to force feed offense to a freshman trying to figure out the myriad of zones being put up against us. I'd hold off on judging Battle in 2016. He's the most talented player on the team, but he's still a freshman playing with two fifth year seniors and a sophomore who went to a final four and is a team leader. I expect Battle to be fully unleashed around the start of ACC play (also around the start of 2017) when teams start playing more straight up man to man against us than they do now, and Battle has a few months under his belt.
Thompson - Prognosis: Poor (relative to what he's done so far). Thompson is probably the most offensively skilled freshman big man Syracuse has ever had. He's been a revelation. Unfortunately he's being played on the wing 100% of the time, and he's not quick enough to cover the wing against top competition. If he plays long minutes there he's going to be found out, so I think he's playing limited minutes, unless he makes the change to center, which is still possible. If that change happens I'll reevaluate. In the not too distant future I do expect Thompson to be an all time great center for us.
Chukwu - Prognosis - Too Early To Tell. We know Chukwu blocks and alters a lot of shots. We know Chukwu is a poor offensive player. What we don't know yet is how he is going to perform against big guys who bang down low for position, and big guys with good post moves (the kind of player we were vulnerable to last year). If this Syracuse team has a weakness its going to be defending good scoring centers. We haven't played a good center yet so there is no way to know how Chukwu will fare. We won't know until we play Wisconsin. Last year Happ (Wisconsin's center) ate Lydon alive down low, scoring 18 points, with 15 rebounds, and was the only reason we lost to Wisconsin (other than missing free throws which would have iced the game). Happ is a 6'10 center who knows where he wants to be in the paint and is strong enough to force his way there. He also has arguably the best footwork of any center we will go up against all year. He's the perfect test for Chukwu. If Chukwu can frustrate Happ, then he will likely frustrate every center we come up against all year, and the one weakness we may have goes away.
The Team - Expect blow out wins against South Carolina, Connecticut, and St. Johns.
Wisconsin is going to be the team that shows us the most. We are lucky to play them this year. They are a big team, not athletic, but skilled. They shoot well, play at a slow tempo, and don't turn the ball over. They will attack us both inside and outside, and on the boards. They are one of the 5 or 6 teams best suited to playing us. If we beat them in Wisconsin it will say a lot.
If you want to worry about somebody upsetting us in the pre-season, Georgetown maybe could if they played their best game.
Syracuse's conference schedule is really tough, there aren't many games that will be easy. Now and again Syracuse will have off days. There will be bad shooting days and days where our guys are just plain beat up, and most of the teams we play are capable of taking advantage of that. I expect Syracuse to have at least two "bad" losses (in this case I define a bad loss as a loss to anybody except Duke, UNC, and Louisville).
If my predictions are right and if they stay healthy (two pretty big ifs) expect Syracuse to have somewhere between 4-7 losses this year depending on how the breaks go.
