SP+ Big Movers

[TheCusian]

This will prob be lost to the Clemson game day stuff, but I think this is interesting.

Preseason (SP+ uses previous years numbers mixed with a bit from the year before, roster churn to determine numbers, recruiting) vs Now (after week 6 - lots more 2021 data mixed in - actual trends shown)

Reminder for winning percentag-istas: SP+ is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating probably will fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it probably will rise.

Team	SP+ O (preseason / now)	SP+ D (preseason / now)	Overall (preseason / now)
Syracuse	(108 / 59) +49	(72 / 41) +31	(102 / 52) +50
Ohio	(57 / 93) -36	(104 / 114) -10	(85 / 108) -23
Rutgers	(90 / 89) +1	(63 / 34) +29	(83 / 67) +16
Liberty	(37 / 16) +21	(81 / 30) +51	(54 / 20) +34
FSU	(41 / 36) +5	(69 / 71) -2	(50 / 55) -5
Wake Forest	(67 / 27) +40	(73 / 75) -2	(74 / 48) +26
Clemson	(5 / 32) -27	(4 / 3) +1	(2 / 5) -3
VaTech	(26 / 50) -24	(51 / 46) +5	(33 / 49) -16
BC	(25 / 18) +7	(103 / 60) +43	(60 / 35) +25
Louisville	(18 / 13) +5	(95 / 98) -3	(42 / 60) -18
NC State	(64 / 62) +2	(40 / 20) +20	(46 / 37) +9
Pitt	(72 / 9) +63	(28 / 27) +1	(40 / 10) +30

One weird takeaway is that all of the Northeast teams are way better this year.

His numbers indicate what we've been seeing: we're an average offense with a slightly better than average defense and way improved over last year. Our division are all better, except Louisville (bad D), Clemson (a bit of movement, but still very good), FSU (kind of similar to last year, maybe a slight step back defensively).

 

[upperdeck]

really the issue with the D is that its been playing well enough to not allow pts but still has, because of field position, lack of TOs and a couple big plays.. Clemson D is allowing the same yards but 10 pts less per game.

 

[GoSU96]

I knew this last December

 

[UpstateSM]

We’re a good football team. Could start next year top 40 or so in SP+ if we don’t lose a bunch of unexpected guys and get a transfer DL or three

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

So basically, we're 1-3 in toss up games so far. SP+ suggests there's 4 toss up games left, plus Clemson and Pitt. I'm not sure Pitt has faced a decent defense yet.

 

[SUskibum]

really the issue with the D is that its been playing well enough to not allow pts but still has, because of field position, lack of TOs and a couple big plays.. Clemson D is allowing the same yards but 10 pts less per game.

Yep essentially special teams (and to a lesser extent turnovers) are taking away ‘hidden’ points this year in the opposite way that they gave us ‘hidden’ points in 2018

 

[TheCusian]

So basically, we're 1-3 in toss up games so far. SP+ suggests there's 4 toss up games left, plus Clemson and Pitt. I'm not sure Pitt has faced a decent defense yet.

Yep. Unfortunately the teams I think we have more of a chance of beating (Lou and VaTech) are on the road.

But our trend line is up and that’s always good

 

[DMDMD]

We sit in the great middle with FSU, Wake, Louisville and VaTech. Sounds about right.

 

[SouthernCuse]

We sit in the great middle with FSU, Wake, Louisville and VaTech. Sounds about right.

Perhaps, but we need a couple/few conference wins to validate that

 

[TheCusian]

Perhaps, but we need a couple/few conference wins to validate that

That’s why we moved up 50 spots while going .500 - we’re improving and playing well enough to win - just not translating to wins. Yet.

 

[TheCusian]

We’ll move up again after this week’s performance. No consolation, of course.

 

[721Comstock]

We’ll move up again after this week’s performance. No consolation, of course.

Statistically, we’re on pace to be THE BEST 3-9 TEAM IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL HISTORY!!!