Spring Update: Syracuse

[Orangeyes]

Spring Update: Syracuse

 

[TexanMark]

John...Duke at worst is a toss-up for us.

 

[anomander]

That was pretty good until the last paragraph. For sure loss to Duke at home? John What?

 

[Chris02M]

as everyone has said here What duke a likely loss?

 

[HtownOrange]

Good job overall. Our top end is 11 wins. On FSU is a guarantee loss and Clemson is a probable. We can beat either team in a perfect storm scenario, but perfect storms simply don't occur frequently enough.

ND is beatable. They are good and we will need to play a very good game but it won't be the perfect storm scenario of the FSU and Clemson games to gain a victory.

Duke, Louisville and everyone else are beatable.

 

[anomander]

Our most difficult games in order

1. FSU - Even at home basically no chance - Ano odds of victory 1%
2. Clemson - CU won't be as good as last year, but Death Valley makes it almost impossible - Ano odds of victory 5%
3. Notre Dame - Very winnable game. Should come in hot - Ano odds of victory 33%
4. Pitt - Pitt always seems to be overlooked, but usually give us problems. We do get them off a bye, but on the road will be tough - Ano odds of victory 40%
5. Louisville - Always plays the Cards tough, and have done well on the Fri night home games where the home team has an extra advantage. Toss up to me - Ano odds of victory -50%
6. Maryland - Should be better then last year with a fully healthy team. Stefon Diggs is one of the most explosive players in country - Ano odds of victory 58%
7. Duke - Will be one of the most over rated teams in country. Lost some playmakers, but biggest loss may be Kurt Roper their OC. Should take care of business at home - Ano odds of victory 60%
8. NCST - Will be a young team as Doeren kind of cleaned house and brought in a bunch of young guys - Ano odds of victory 65%
9. Wake Forest - Deacs will be in rebuild mode and have to replace qb, best wr, and star dt. Clawson is a good coach though. Good year to play then on the road - Ano odds of victory - 67%
10. Boston College - Seems like Addazzio waited a year to go in total rebuild. Either way no Retting, no Andre Williams, and not a lot of scholarship players. Despite being on the road we catch BC at a great time. Should be the last game of a long season, and if we are lucky injuries will have them playing red shirt players. Another good team to play on the road in 2014 - Ano odds of victory 75%
11. Central Michigan - Despite being 2nd game we get them off a bye week. Even being on the road we are the far superior team talent wise - Ano odds of victory 90%
12. Nova - Tune up game - Ano odds of victory 99%

So as I have it we have 4 losses in which games we should be an underdog in, and 1 toss up game. Don't see a huge difference in 3 other games, 1 being in our favor 2 against.

So my breakdowns would have us:

Projected record: 8-4
Best Case: 9-3
Worst Case: 6-6

 

[wfschrec]

Our most difficult games in order

1. FSU - Even at home basically no chance - Ano odds of victory 1%
2. Clemson - CU won't be as good as last year, but Death Valley makes it almost impossible - Ano odds of victory 5%
3. Notre Dame - Very winnable game. Should come in hot - Ano odds of victory 33%
4. Pitt - Pitt always seems to be overlooked, but usually give us problems. We do get them off a bye, but on the road will be tough - Ano odds of victory 40%
5. Louisville - Always plays the Cards tough, and have done well on the Fri night home games where the home team has an extra advantage. Toss up to me - Ano odds of victory -50%
6. Maryland - Should be better then last year with a fully healthy team. Stefon Diggs is one of the most explosive players in country - Ano odds of victory 58%
7. Duke - Will be one of the most over rated teams in country. Lost some playmakers, but biggest loss may be Kurt Roper their OC. Should take care of business at home - Ano odds of victory 60%
8. NCST - Will be a young team as Doeren kind of cleaned house and brought in a bunch of young guys - Ano odds of victory 65%
9. Wake Forest - Deacs will be in rebuild mode and have to replace qb, best wr, and star dt. Clawson is a good coach though. Good year to play then on the road - Ano odds of victory - 67%
10. Boston College - Seems like Addazzio waited a year to go in total rebuild. Either way no Retting, no Andre Williams, and not a lot of scholarship players. Despite being on the road we catch BC at a great time. Should be the last game of a long season, and if we are lucky injuries will have them playing red shirt players. Another good team to play on the road in 2014 - Ano odds of victory 75%
11. Central Michigan - Despite being 2nd game we get them off a bye week. Even being on the road we are the far superior team talent wise - Ano odds of victory 90%
12. Nova - Tune up game - Ano odds of victory 99%

So as I have it we have 4 losses in which games we should be an underdog in, and 1 toss up game. Don't see a huge difference in 3 other games, 1 being in our favor 2 against.

So my breakdowns would have us:

Projected record: 8-4
Best Case: 9-3
Worst Case: 6-6

Louisville sans Bridgewater puts us over 50% IMHO ... and Pitt without Donald and Savage are much more beatable. Everything else looks good to me ... although 5% against Clemson without Watkins and Boyd might be giving them too much credit, I think their QB situation is rougher then we even realize and it goes beyond the Chad Kelly disaster ...

 

[FAL]

Our most difficult games in order

1. FSU - Even at home basically no chance - Ano odds of victory 1%
2. Clemson - CU won't be as good as last year, but Death Valley makes it almost impossible - Ano odds of victory 5%
3. Notre Dame - Very winnable game. Should come in hot - Ano odds of victory 33%
4. Pitt - Pitt always seems to be overlooked, but usually give us problems. We do get them off a bye, but on the road will be tough - Ano odds of victory 40%
5. Louisville - Always plays the Cards tough, and have done well on the Fri night home games where the home team has an extra advantage. Toss up to me - Ano odds of victory -50%
6. Maryland - Should be better then last year with a fully healthy team. Stefon Diggs is one of the most explosive players in country - Ano odds of victory 58%
7. Duke - Will be one of the most over rated teams in country. Lost some playmakers, but biggest loss may be Kurt Roper their OC. Should take care of business at home - Ano odds of victory 60%
8. NCST - Will be a young team as Doeren kind of cleaned house and brought in a bunch of young guys - Ano odds of victory 65%
9. Wake Forest - Deacs will be in rebuild mode and have to replace qb, best wr, and star dt. Clawson is a good coach though. Good year to play then on the road - Ano odds of victory - 67%
10. Boston College - Seems like Addazzio waited a year to go in total rebuild. Either way no Retting, no Andre Williams, and not a lot of scholarship players. Despite being on the road we catch BC at a great time. Should be the last game of a long season, and if we are lucky injuries will have them playing red shirt players. Another good team to play on the road in 2014 - Ano odds of victory 75%
11. Central Michigan - Despite being 2nd game we get them off a bye week. Even being on the road we are the far superior team talent wise - Ano odds of victory 90%
12. Nova - Tune up game - Ano odds of victory 99%

So as I have it we have 4 losses in which games we should be an underdog in, and 1 toss up game. Don't see a huge difference in 3 other games, 1 being in our favor 2 against.

So my breakdowns would have us:

Projected record: 8-4
Best Case: 9-3
Worst Case: 6-6

Great analysis! I'm impressed! (But it doesn't take much to do that!)

 

[anomander]

Louisville sans Bridgewater puts us over 50% IMHO ... and Pitt without Donald and Savage are much more beatable. Everything else looks good to me ... although 5% against Clemson without Watkins and Boyd might be giving them too much credit, I think their QB situation is rougher then we even realize and it goes beyond the Chad Kelly disaster ...

Ya, but Death Valley is a b!tch, and their defense should be one of the best in the country.

I was thinking of putting Syracuse as more of a favorite against Louisville, especially being Friday night home game.

 

[money3189]

that is right on

 

[djorange1989]

I have been thinking 7-5 for a while now. I would love at least 8-4 but not sure if we can expect that many close games(on paper) to go our way. FSU, Clemson, Pitt, ND and one other are where I think we fall. Really like where we are going and excited as hell for the season

 

[RF2044]

Personally, I think 7 wins are the minimum threshold for this team. We return a TON of experienced offensive players, including a QB who seems poised for a big year. We won't be struggling out of the gate to figure things out offensively--we're going to hit the ground running.

I think we have a much better chance to beat a ND than people seem to think. Doesn't mean its a given by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us rise to the occasion, put points up, and start / close strong given the way the schedule breaks down.

And yes--I'm generally an optimist, but I believe that Hunt is going to go from an inconsistent, inexperienced soph to a difference making QB in 2014. We have momentum, and I trust in our coach and his staff. I honestly believe this is the year we get back into the top 25.

Let's Go Orange!!!

 

[Scooch]

Winning less games than the year before is a disappointment.

People want to say our program is improving, and 6 years post-Robinson improvement needs to be measured in wins.

 

[RF2044]

Winning less games than the year before is a disappointment.

People want to say our program is improving, and 6 years post-Robinson improvement needs to be measured in wins.

Agreed. And this is the year we finally have the infrastructure in place [with key personnel, consistent coaching staff, etc.] to take it up a notch.

 

[Jeepers]

I think this will be a very telling year. If the staff has as much potential as many of us think, we should win 8 games. And should have a much better idea of what kind of coach McD is.

If we go 6 wins or lower, I'm biting my fingernails again.

 

[ImperialOrange]

So much depends on guys stepping up in Bromley's place. I like Crume a lot but aside from him it's big question marks. Will Coleman be big enough to hold the point and play extended series? Will Williams or Sloan show up in good enough condition to play more than a few series per game? Will one of out larger DE's move inside on passing downs?

Aside from that we have talent all over the place. If the DB crew gets/stays healthy we're golden.